2026-10-31T10:31:26.379Z
距离选举仅有几天时间，一些因唐纳德·特朗普总统长期毫无根据地散布大规模舞弊言论而发酵的极端选举末日场景，已没有足够时间上演。
他并未宣布进入全国紧急状态以将选举收归国有——尽管此前他拒绝排除这种可能性。
他试图利用美国邮政服务来打压邮寄投票的努力此次以失败告终，数百万美国人已提前通过邮寄方式完成投票。
随着计划在选举日当天投票的选民准备前往投票站，焦点正转向投票环节及后续事宜。
近期多则新闻可能已引起选民担忧。
例如，多莉·帕顿的妹妹斯特拉在社交媒体上发文称，投票机器篡改了她的选票，引发警觉。专家告诉CNN，选民需要仔细核对自己的选票，但通常出现这种混淆是由于不小心的触碰或过长的指甲——换句话说，是人为操作失误；偶尔也可能因机器校准不当导致。
2024年，一系列疑似来自境外的炸弹威胁扰乱了佐治亚州及其他部分州的部分选举工作。这类恶作剧将是今年选举官员的重点防范对象——从恶劣天气到网络中断，再到蜂群袭击，任何情况都需做好准备。
选举工作人员会对各类突发状况进行预案演练，各州选举官员普遍口径一致地表示，选票将被准确投出并计票。
尽管大多数美国人仍对选举制度抱有信心，但总统本人并不这么认为。
围绕特朗普政府将如何对2026年中期选举结果提出异议，外界已有诸多猜测和担忧——部分猜测有一定依据，部分则纯属空想。
本周被问及是否会尊重选举结果时，特朗普给出了一个附带条件。
“只要是公正的选举，我就会尊重，没错。”
由于特朗普即便在自己赢得的选举中也指控存在舞弊，因此合理的预期是，他会认定这些选举不公正，尤其是如果共和党失去众议院、参议院，或者两院都失守的话。
他甚至悬赏100万美元，给任何能提供线索致使选举舞弊嫌疑人被定罪的人，共和党选举律师本·金斯伯格称他此举颇具喜剧色彩。
“如果真有舞弊证据，嗯，他们早就该找到了，”金斯伯格本周告诉CNN的布里安娜·凯尔，“所以我更倾向于把这看作是选举前的一场‘行为艺术’。”
司法部已发起最后一轮行动，试图以关于选举舞弊的可疑理论质疑加利福尼亚州和华盛顿州的国会选举。
根据CNN的报道：
特朗普政府称，在加利福尼亚州，登记选民中可能有2万人是非公民；而在华盛顿州，政府本周声称有400名可能的非公民选民在过去的选举中累计投票1500次。司法部已向这两个州发出信件，要求它们扣留政府声称可能是非公民的选民的选票——但当加利福尼亚州表示这一要求违反其法律时，司法部提起了诉讼……这些指控引发了外界对政府编制可能是非公民的选民名单的过程的质疑，也招致了批评：在审查之下，其数万非公民选民的说法已大幅缩水。
此外，政府已加大对明尼苏达州出生于索马里的众议员伊尔汉·奥马尔的调查力度，外界因此猜测共和党是否可能在新一届国会中质疑她再次任职的资格。
特朗普还指示司法部介入阿拉斯加州的参议院选举，他计划利用民主党的动作来破坏该州的排序复选制投票体系。
《纽约时报》发表的一篇报道似乎暗示民主党曾招募第二位同名候选人丹·沙利文来混淆选民，这让特朗普似乎获得了助力——毕竟现任参议员丹·沙利文将以现任官员兼共和党人的身份出现在选票上，这种担忧纯属多余。
金斯伯格总结称，此次事件在民主党方面是“对（民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉的）竞选活动来说在政治上极为笨拙且尴尬”。不过他补充道，“此事并未涉及任何非法行为”。
但这并未阻止司法部对第二位丹·沙利文登上选票的过程展开刑事调查，阿拉斯加州的共和党州长还表示可能不会认证选举结果。
跨党派专家表示，所有这些案件的胜诉概率都极低，而特朗普的选举异议诉讼记录也不佳。
不过，他所有指控舞弊的举动都具有一定的政治影响力。
“他们只是抛出所有这些说法，试图让人们不相信选举制度，还试图阻止人们登记投票、实际参与投票，”奥巴马政府时期的司法部长埃里克·霍尔德上周告诉CNN的帕梅拉·布朗，“这与以往选举不同，如今特朗普领导的司法部由他的前私人律师托德·布兰奇执掌。”
虽然布兰奇表示司法部没有计划在任何州对选举结果提出异议，但福克斯新闻指出，他也没有排除这种可能性。
“当然，我不会说这种话，”布兰奇10月在弗吉尼亚州对记者表示，“但我是不是在为了不认证选举结果而安排选举前后的日程？当然没有，绝对没有。”
他可能没有相关计划，但联邦政府正在做的事比前几届选举更多，以监督选举进程。
CNN的加比·科恩、杰里米·赫布和达格尔德·麦克唐奈为CNN订阅用户带来了一份深度报道，内容涉及特朗普政府的有关人员毫无证据地指控广泛存在作弊行为和投票机器问题的情况，以及在选民前往投票站之际他们仍可能采取的行动。点击此处阅读。
司法部派遣律师监督各州投票站管理、保障民众投票权的制度并非新鲜事物，民主党和共和党都曾采用过。但特朗普政府派遣的选举监督人员数量较最近一次中期选举增加了一倍多——达到1000人以上，并且覆盖全美50个州。
在拥有3.3亿人口的美国，1000名监督人员并不算多，且这些人员被禁止在任何投票站干扰投票流程。不过他们可以收集信息，为联邦政府可能对各州选举提出的异议提供依据。共和党全国委员会也计划加大对投票站的监督力度，两党历来都会派遣监督人员。
FBI探员已待命
联邦法律禁止向投票站部署军队或武装联邦探员。但FBI局长卡什·帕特尔拒绝排除向投票站派遣FBI探员的可能性。“我不确定法律是否不允许这么做，”他最近在参议院听证会上表示。
但帕特尔称，FBI探员将在选举日保持戒备。“我们会把探员和情报分析员安排在各外勤办公室待命，以保障选举安全，”帕特尔说，并补充道“我们在全部56个外勤办公室都部署了选举危机协调员”。
希望选举当天不会出现任何危机，FBI做好准备是件好事。但政府也采取了行动，在没有证据的情况下指控存在选民舞弊。
需要说明的是，现任众议院议长、特朗普盟友迈克·约翰逊曾在国会协助特朗普挑战2020年选举结果，他表示关于共和党是否可能阻止议员就职的问题“很荒谬；当然，我们会实现和平交接”。
约翰逊表示，他将遵循宪法，让各州认证获胜的议员就职。
“我可能不喜欢一些选举结果，但这就是我们的制度，任何人提出其他说法都是荒谬的，”约翰逊告诉CNN的马努·拉朱。他还预测共和党将继续控制众议院，而在密切关注选举氛围的人士中，这属于少数派观点。
参议院方面，过去曾因选举争议拖延参议员就职，最近一次是2008年，当时民主党参议员阿尔·弗兰克尔最终被宣布获胜，而共和党参议员诺姆·科尔曼则落败，双方的竞争极为激烈。最终，由参议员们决定是否为同僚就职。
就此而言，所有人都应希望选举日后能产生明确的获胜者。
这并非说特朗普影响选举的前所未有的举措没有产生任何影响。
共和党在划定选区以争取新席位方面比民主党更成功，但这种划区可能在得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州等州产生反效果——2024年支持特朗普的拉丁裔选民今年可能会转而反对共和党。此外，南方一些州的选民对最高法院削弱民权时代保障少数族裔在国会发声的选区保护措施感到愤怒，这些州未来会出现何种局面尚不清楚。
重新划分选区预计明年将扩大范围，而特朗普限制邮寄投票的努力也会随之升级。就此而言，2026年选举可以视为2028年下一届总统选举的彩排——届时特朗普不会参选，但他的政治遗产将面临考验。
https://x.com/mychaelschnell/status/2115191046678397149/video/2
Trump is setting the stage to contest the midterms. Here’s how
2026-10-31T10:31:26.379Z
With only days to the election, time is running out for some of the more extreme pre-election doomsday scenarios that have percolated as a result of President Donald Trump’s chronic and unfounded rhetoric about widespread fraudulent voting.
He has not declared a national emergency to nationalize elections, something he refused to rule out.
His efforts to weaponize the US Postal Service against mail-in voting failed, at least this time. Millions of Americans have already voted early and by mail.
As the voters who want to vote on Election Day prepare to cast their ballots, the focus is turning to the casting of ballots and beyond.
Multiple recent news stories might have caused concern for voters.
Dolly Parton’s sister Stella, for instance, raised alarm in a social media post that a voting machine had changed her vote. Experts told CNN voters need to be paying attention to their ballots, but it’s usually a stray touch or a long fingernail — user error, in other words — that can cause this type of mixup. Occasionally a mistake can result from a machine being improperly calibrated.
A series of bomb threats, likely called in from outside the country, disrupted some voting in Georgia and other states in 2024. Such shenanigans are going to be high on the list of things election officials are prepping for this year — anything from bad weather to network outages to swarms of bees.
Election workers game out all sorts of things and state election officials generally speak with one voice when they say that votes will be cast and counted accurately.
While most Americans still have faith in the system, the president does not.
There has been a lot of conjecture and worrying — some of it justified and some of it fanciful — about how exactly the Trump administration might go about contesting results of the 2026 midterm election.
Asked this week if he would respect the results, Trump included a caveat.
“I will if they are honest elections, yeah.”
Since Trump has alleged fraud even in elections he has won, the operating assumption should be that he will not think they are honest, especially if Republicans lose control of the House, the Senate or both.
He has even offered $1 million rewards to anyone whose tip leads to a conviction for election fraud, something the Republican election lawyer Ben Ginsberg said he views comically.
“If there was evidence of fraud, uh, they would have found it already,” Ginsberg told CNN’s Brianna Keilar this week. “So I take it more as sort of performance art right before the election.”
The Department of Justice has launched a last-minute effort to call congressional elections in California and Washington state into question based on dubious theories of fraudulent voting.
From CNN’s report:
In California, the administration claimed there were 20,000 people who could be noncitizens on the rolls, while in Washington state, the administration alleged this week that 400 possible noncitizen voters had voted 1,500 times in past elections. The Justice Department sent letters to both states demanding they set aside the ballots of those the department claimed could be noncitizens — and sued California when the state said that the request ran afoul of its laws… The allegations have sparked questions about how the administration created its lists of voters who could be noncitizens — and criticism that its claims of tens of thousands of noncitizens voters have whittled down under scrutiny.
And, separately, the administration has ramped up its investigation of Rep. Ilhan Omar, the Somalia-born lawmaker from Minnesota, raising questions about whether Republicans could challenge her ability to be seated again in the next Congress.
Trump also directed the Department of Justice to get involved in Alaska’s Senate race, where he wants to weaponize Democrats’ efforts to game the state’s ranked-choice voting system.
The president got an apparent boost when the New York Times published a report that seemed to implicate Democrats in an effort to recruit a second candidate named Dan Sullivan to confuse voters. Never mind that the incumbent, Sen. Dan Sullivan, will be identified on the ballot as the incumbent and the Republican.
Ginsberg summarized the ensuing scandal for Democrats as “remarkably politically clumsy and embarrassing for (Democrat Mary Peltola’s) campaign. But Ginsberg added “there’s not an illegality here.”
That hasn’t stopped the DOJ from launching a criminal probe into how the second Dan Sullivan got onto the ballot, and Alaska’s Republican governor has said he might not certify results.
All of these cases are legal long shots, according to experts across the political aisle. And Trump’s election challenges have a poor record in court.
But all his efforts to allege fraud have some political currency.
“They’re just throwing all this stuff out there in an attempt to discourage people from believing in the system and trying to discourage people from coming out and registering to vote and then actually voting themselves,” Eric Holder, who was attorney general under President Barack Obama, told CNN’s Pamela Brown last week.
Unlike in previous elections, Trump now has a Department of Justice helmed by his former personal lawyer, Todd Blanche.
While Blanche has said the DOJ has no plans to contest election results in any state, he also won’t rule it out, as Fox News noted.
“Of course, I’m not going to say that,” Blanche told reporters in Virginia in October. “But am I planning my days around the election to be somewhere to not certify? Of course not, no, not at all.”
He may have no plans, but the federal government is doing more than in previous years to keep an eye on the election.
_CNN’s Gabe Cohen, Jeremy Herb and Dugald McDonnell have an extensive report for CNN subscribers on how players in the Trump administration have alleged, without evidence, widespread cheating and problems with voting machines. It also looks at what they can still do as voters head to polls._Read it here.
The system by which DOJ lawyers are sent to monitor how states monitor polling places and guarantee people have access to ballot boxes is nothing new and has been utilized by both Democrats and Republicans. But the Trump administration is more than doubling — to over 1,000 — the number of election monitors it is sending compared with the most recent midterm election. It’s also going to all 50 US states.
One thousand monitors in a nation of 330 million people is not many, and these monitors should be barred from interrupting voting at any polling place. But they could gather information for potential federal government challenges to any state’s election. The RNC also plans to ramp up its monitoring of polling places. Both parties traditionally send monitors.
FBI agents will be standing by
Federal law prohibits the deployment of the military or armed federal agents to polling places. FBI Director Kash Patel, however, has refused to rule out sending FBI agents to polling places. “I don’t know that we can’t legally do it,” he said at a recent Senate hearing.
But Patel said FBI agents would be on guard on Election Day. “We’re going to house our agents and intel analysts in our field offices for election security,” Patel said, adding, “We have election crisis coordinators manned at all 56 field offices.”
It’s to be hoped that there is no crisis of any kind at election places. And it’s a good thing for the FBI to be prepared. But the administration has also made a point of making claims of voter fraud when there’s no evidence.
For the record, current House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Trump ally who helped him challenge the 2020 election in Congress, said questions about whether Republicans could block the seating of lawmakers were “silly; of course we’ll have a peaceful transfer.”
Johnson said he will follow the Constitution and seat lawmakers whose victories are certified in their states.
“I may not like some of those outcomes, but that’s our system, and for anyone to suggest otherwise is absurd,” Johnson told CNN’s Manu Raju. He also predicted Republicans will keep control of the House, which is a minority view among people paying close attention to the election atmosphere.
In the Senate, contested elections have delayed the seating of senators in the past, most recently in 2008, in an extremely close race between Democratic Sen. Al Franken, who was ultimately declared the winner, and Sen. Norm Coleman, the Republican who lost. Ultimately, it is up to senators to seat their colleagues.
In that regard, everyone should hope for clear winners after Election Day.
None of this is to say Trump’s unprecedented efforts to influence the election haven’t already had an effect.
Republicans’ efforts to gerrymander themselves some new seats were more successful than those of the Democrats, but some of that could backfire in states such as Texas and Florida, where Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 might this year shun the GOP. It’s also not yet clear what will happen in Southern states where some voters are angry about the Supreme Court’s gutting of Civil Rights-era protections for districts meant to give minority voters a voice in Congress.
Redistricting is expected to expand next year, and so are Trump’s efforts to curb voting by mail. In that regard, 2026 could serve as a dress rehearsal for the next presidential election, in 2028, when Trump won’t be on the ballot but his legacy will be on the line.
https://x.com/mychaelschnell/status/2115191046678397149/video/2