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选举日过后,美国政界的目光可能将全部聚焦于阿拉斯加州。

本周,阿拉斯加州已成为一场激烈政治争议的中心,争议核心是现任共和党参议员丹·沙利文(Dan Sullivan)为何会在该州参议院选票上出现同名的民主党候选人丹尼尔·J·沙利文(Daniel J. Sullivan)。这一事件已引发诉讼、刑事调查,甚至出现威胁:若丹·沙利文被民主党候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉(Mary Peltola)击败,将阻挠选举结果认证。

不过,如果参议院控制权的归属取决于阿拉斯加州的选举结果,这场争议可能会升级至更激烈的程度。选举官员和专家表示,该州的投票流程与美国其他地区截然不同。

这是因为可能需要两周时间才能决出胜者。

布伦南中心选举与政府项目律师德里克·蒂斯勒(Derek Tisler)表示:“阿拉斯加州的做法与其他地区不同。鉴于其地理环境、偏远程度和辽阔疆域,这个州极具特殊性。因此,其他49个州的选民若首次关注这里的选举,可能会对阿拉斯加州的投票方式感到困惑。”

阿拉斯加州计票时间长于其他州,主要有几个原因。首先,该州允许邮寄选票在选举截止日之后10至15天内寄回选举办公室(美国境内邮寄为10天,海外邮寄为15天)。其次,该州采用“排序复选制”计票,若首轮投票没有候选人获得50%的选票,结果需等待15天截止期结束后才能最终确定。

选举官员和专家表示,在此情况下,选民需要明确一个事实:这一流程本就需要如此长的时间——尤其是因为等待期可能会让接近的选举成为虚假信息滋生的温床,有人会借此声称存在舞弊行为。

“如果确实需要两周时间才能得出实际计票结果,这并非选票操纵,也不是试图改变选举结果,”阿拉斯加大学费尔班克斯分校政治学教授拉塞尔·卢克(Russell Luke)表示,“这就是阿拉斯加州的常规时长,一切在意料之中,并不异常,也不属于非常规操作。”

本周《纽约时报》曝出细节,披露民主党介入了让丹尼尔·J·沙利文成为阿拉斯加州参议院候选人的过程,而该候选人的姓名与现任议员丹·沙利文完全相同。随后,争议迅速发酵。阿拉斯加州共和党州长迈克·邓利维(Mike Dunleavy)已就民主党是否试图混淆选民展开调查,并于周四表示,若调查发现存在“不法行为”,参议院选举结果的认证可能会“暂停或变更”。

“我们将展开调查,”启动此事调查的邓利维对新闻台(NewsNation)表示,“若发现存在不法行为,且这意味着认证程序需暂停或变更,那就只能如此。”

选举法专家表示,共和党有通过法院质疑选举结果的途径,但州长无权通过此举干扰合法选举结果的认证。

“如果任何州级机构——无论是计票委员会、州务卿还是州长——试图通过延迟或拒绝认证来干扰选民权利,就会像过去一样:有合法资格的党派将诉诸法院,前美国司法部律师、选举创新与研究中心创始人戴维·贝克尔(David Becker)表示,“他们将立即获得法院救济。”

圣母大学选举法教授德里克·穆勒(Derek Muller)表示,阿拉斯加州法律规定,若败选候选人存在舞弊、欺诈或腐败行为,可通过诉讼改变选举结果,或“法律定义中足以改变选举结果的任何腐败行为”。

穆勒称,对于败诉候选人而言,要满足这一标准并通过法院获得支持难度极大,同时强调,这一流程与州长拒绝认证选举的行为完全不同。

穆勒表示,如果州长拒绝认证,“法院可以命令其他机构执行认证程序”。

特朗普的诉讼与参议院相关问题

即便在本周事态发展之前,特朗普政府就已威胁若沙利文败选将阻止选举认证,并已提前发起诉讼。

司法部正依据《纽约时报》的报道,称民主党介入招募丹尼尔·J·沙利文参选存在混淆选民的意图,不过该诉讼被视为胜诉概率极低,且该州最高法院此前在初选前已裁定非现任的沙利文可参选。

主审此案的法官正在审议阿拉斯加州选举官员、民主党及其他团体提出的驳回诉讼的请求,可能最早在本周末作出裁决。

外界还猜测,若佩尔托拉在该州获得选举认证,且她于1月3日新国会开幕时宣誓就职,部分参议院共和党人是否可能试图阻止其就职。

如此激烈的举动此前从未发生过。前总统唐纳德·特朗普一直公开抨击阿拉斯加州的选举,这可能促使志同道合的参议员采取行动,但目前并无迹象表明这种情况会发生。

参议院共和党助手拒绝对相关可能性作出回应:若佩尔托拉赢得阿拉斯加州参议院选举,是否可能出现反对或阻止其宣誓就职的行为,甚至不愿说明是否有程序机制可用于阻止她就职。

参议院惯例规定,当某州完成选举认证后,当选参议员需将认证文件提交参议院秘书长审核。随后,该参议员将在其他胜选议员陪同下,通常由副总统主持宣誓就职。

若有人对选举结果的准确性提出质疑,相关事宜将提交参议院规则与行政委员会调查。该委员会最终的调查结果与建议将提交全体参议院,若委员会认定存在不法行为或计票不准确,参议院可通过多数票将涉事议员驱逐。

上一次出现此类争议是在1996年,民主党参议员玛丽·兰德鲁(Mary Landrieu)首次当选路易斯安那州参议员时。尽管其对手指控选民舞弊,她仍宣誓就职,且经参议院长时间调查后最终被清白。

更近期的一起争议选举裁决发生在法院层面:2008年,共和党参议员诺姆·科尔曼(Norm Coleman)在明尼苏达州的首轮计票中领先215票。重新计票后,民主党人阿尔·弗兰肯(Al Franken)以312票反超。随后展开数月法律博弈,直至2009年6月,明尼苏达州最高法院才宣布弗兰肯获胜。

阿拉斯加州长期以来一直是选举结果公布最慢的州之一。

这纯粹是地理原因:该州幅员辽阔,许多居民居住在偏远地区,选票需通过空运才能计票,因为这些社区并不在该州公路网络覆盖范围内。

“即便在采用排序复选制之前,阿拉斯加州在接近的选举中等待数周结果都是常态,”温和派智库“第三方向”(Third Way)政治与研究副主任戴维·德拉富恩特(David de la Fuente)表示,“阿拉斯加州是美国少数几个大部分人口无法通过私家车上下班的州之一。”

正是由于这种偏远性,该州规定邮寄选票需在选举日投票,且可在选举截止日后10至15天内提交。

今年美国最高法院曾审理一起可能终结这一做法的案件,要求所有选票必须在选举日前送达,但法院最终驳回了共和党对密西西比州允许选举日后送达选票的做法的质疑。

阿拉斯加大学教授卢克表示,尽管阿拉斯加州计票一直较慢,但排序复选制“无疑加剧了这一问题”,因为该州需等待15天截止期结束后才会启动排序复选制计票,而若没有候选人获得50%的选票,这一流程是强制性的。

流程如下:根据选民对选票上四位候选人的排名,得票第四名的候选人的选票会分配给排名前三的候选人;随后,得票第三名的候选人的选票会分配给排名前两位的候选人,这将使某位候选人获得超过50%的选票。(选票上除两位沙利文和佩尔托拉外,还有另一位共和党候选人杰拉尔德·海克斯(Gerald Heikes)。)

卢克表示:“在这场参议院选举中,最可能出现的结果就是,首轮投票没有任何候选人明确获得多数票。”

这一流程也可能出现在该州州长和联邦众议院的选举中。

排序复选制一直遭到包括特朗普在内的共和党人的批评,特朗普质疑若佩尔托拉获胜,是否应允许她就职。

尽管部分专家认为排序复选制实际上保护了现任议员沙利文——因为选民可对两位沙利文均进行排名——但这场争议可能会推动阿拉斯加州终止使用排序复选制。

2024年,选民以微弱优势在公投中同意保留该制度,但这一议题再次被列入该州选票,意味着阿拉斯加州选民在决定是否在未来选举中保留排序复选制的同时,将在沙利文与佩尔托拉的选举中使用该制度。

CNN记者Tierney Sneed和Zachary B. Wolf对本报道有贡献。

After Election Day, all eyes in the political world could turn to Alaska.

Alaska has already been at the center of a roiling political controversy this week over how the second Dan Sullivan ended up on the state’s Senate ballot, which has sparked lawsuits, criminal investigations and threats to block certification of the election if incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is defeated by Democrat Mary Peltola.

But the uproar about the Alaska Senate race could ratchet up to 11 if control of the Senate comes down to who wins in the state, one that election officials and experts say is unlike any other when it comes to voting.

That’s because it might take two weeks before a winner can be determined.

“Alaska does it different than everyone,” said Derek Tisler, counsel with the Brennan Center’s Elections and Government Program. “It’s such a unique state given its geography, given how remote it is and how expansive it is. So voters in all other 49 states are going to be a little confused about how things are done in Alaska when paying attention for the first time.”

There are several reasons why Alaska’s vote count could take longer than other states. For one, the state gives between 10 to 15 days for mailed ballots to be returned to the elections office (10 days if mailed within the US and 15 days from overseas). Secondly, the state uses a system called ranked choice voting to count votes, a process where the results won’t be finalized until after that 15-day period if no candidate receives 50% of the vote on the first ballot.

Should that occur, election officials and experts say it’s important for voters to remember that the process is supposed to take that long — especially because the waiting period can allow close elections to become a hotbed for misinformation over claims of cheating.

“If it does take these two weeks to find out the actual composition [of the results], this isn’t a ballot manipulation — it’s not an attempt to alter the results of the election,” said Russell Luke, a political science professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. “It’s simply how long it takes in Alaska. This is to be expected — it’s not extraordinary or outside the norm.”

Controversy swirled this week after The New York Times reported new details about Democratic involvement in getting Daniel J. Sullivan onto the Alaska Senate ballot, with the same name as the incumbent. Alaska GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy launched an investigation into whether Democrats sought to confuse voters, and he said Thursday that if the probe finds “wrongdoing,” then certification of the Senate race results could be “stopped or changed.”

“We’re going to investigate,” Dunleavy, who launched a probe into the matter, told NewsNation. “We find out there’s wrongdoing and if that means that the certification then is stopped or changed, then that’s what happens.”

Election law experts say there is a path for Republicans to contest the results of the election through the courts, but that the governor’s certification of legitimate election results is not the way to do so.

“If any state authority — whether it’s a canvassing board or secretary of state or governor — wants to interfere with the rights of the voters by delaying or denying certification, the same thing will happen what’s happened in the past: Parties with standing are going to go to the court,” said David Becker, a former DOJ attorney and founder of the Center for Election Innovation & Research. “They’re going to get immediate relief.”

Derek Muller, an elections law professor at Notre Dame, said there’s a statute in Alaska law for a defeated candidate to contest an election in the event of misconduct, fraud or corruption to change the result of the election or “any corrupt practice as defined by law sufficient to change the results of the election.”

That standard would likely be a high bar for a defeated candidate to meet with the courts, Muller said, while also noting that it was a different process entirely than the governor trying not to certify the election.

If the governor refuses certification, Muller said, “the court can order somebody else to do it.”

Trump’s lawsuit and Senate questions

The Trump administration has also threatened to block certification if Sullivan loses, with a preemptive lawsuit that was filed even before this week’s developments.

The Justice Department is leaning into the Times’ reporting about Democrats’ involvement in recruiting Daniel J. Sullivan to run, arguing it will confuse voters, though the lawsuit is seen as a longshot likely to fail. The state Supreme Court previously ruled ahead of the primary that the non-incumbent Sullivan could be on the ballot.

The judge in the case is considering requests from Alaska election officials, Democrats and outside groups to dismiss the lawsuit, and a ruling could come as soon as this weekend.

There is also speculation about whether some Senate Republicans might try to prevent Peltola from being sworn in should her victory be certified by the state and she show up January 3 when the new session of Congress convenes.

Such a dramatic move has never happened before. President Donald Trump has been vocally complaining about the Alaska race, something that could spur like-minded senators to try to act. But there is no evidence at this point it might happen.

Senate GOP aides refused to address the possibility that there might be an objection to or effort to block Peltola’s swearing in should she win the Alaska Senate race — or even say if there is a procedural mechanism they could use to block her.

Senate practices dictate that when a state certifies an election, the senator-elect provides that certification to the Secretary of the Senate for review. That person is then sworn in, typically by the vice president, with the other members who won their races.

If a challenge is made to the accuracy of the election results, the matter is referred to the Committee on Rules and Administration for investigation. The committee’s eventual findings and recommendations would then go back to the full Senate, which could expel the individual on a majority vote should they find there was wrongdoing or an inaccurate count in the election.

This was last an issue when Sen. Mary Landrieu, a Democrat from Louisiana, was first elected in 1996. She was sworn in even as her opponent alleged voter fraud. A lengthy Senate investigation cleared her.

A more recent controversial race decision played out in the courts: In 2008, Sen. Norm Coleman, a Republican, had a 215-vote lead after the initial vote count in Minnesota. A recount gave a 312-vote lead to Democrat Al Franken. Months of legal wrangling followed. It wasn’t until June 2009 that the Minnesota Supreme Court declared Franken the winner.

Alaska has long been one of the slowest states for reporting election results.

It’s a simple matter of geography: The state is massive, with residents in far-flung areas where ballots have to be flown in to be counted because communities aren’t on the state’s roadway network.

“This was common in Alaska to wait weeks on end for results in close races, even before ranked choice voting,” said David de la Fuente, deputy director for politics and research at the moderate think tank Third Way. “Alaska is one of the few states in the country that a substantial part of their population does not get to their job via personal vehicle.”

That remoteness is why the state gives mail ballot deadlines of 10 and 15 days after the election, so long as they are postmarked by Election Day.

The US Supreme Court took up a case this year that could have ended that practice, requiring all ballots to arrive by Election Day, but the court ruled against a Republican challenge to the practice of accepting ballots arriving after Election Day in Mississippi.

Luke, the University of Alaska professor, said that while vote counting in Alaska has always been slow, ranked choice voting “certainly exacerbates the issue,” because the state waits for the 15-day deadline to run out before running the ranked choice voting tabulation, which is required if no candidate receives 50% of the votes.

Here’s how the process works: The votes of the fourth-place finisher are distributed among the top three vote getters, based on how voters rank the four candidates on the ballot. Then the votes of the third-place finisher are distributed to the top two vote-getters, which will put a candidate above the 50% threshold. (There is one other Republican, Gerald Heikes, on the ballot along with the two Sullivans and Peltola.)

“In this particular Senate race, that is the likeliest outcome — that neither candidate clearly receives a majority in the first round,” Luke said.

The same process could also play out in the state’s gubernatorial and House contests.

Ranked choice voting has been criticized by Republicans, including the president, who has questioned whether Peltola should be seated if she wins.

While some experts have argued that ranked choice voting actually protects the incumbent Sullivan — because voters can rank both Sullivans — the controversy could fuel efforts to end the use of ranked choice voting in Alaska.

In 2024, voters narrowly approved keeping the practice in a referendum. But it’s back on the ballot again in the state, meaning Alaska voters will be using ranked choice voting in the Sullivan-Peltola contest while deciding whether to keep the method for future elections.

CNN’s Tierney Sneed and Zachary B. Wolf contributed to this report.

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