2026-09-10T05:04:02.653Z / 路透社
华盛顿9月10日电（路透社）——唐纳德·特朗普竞选连任白宫时，曾承诺要成为一个“和平总统”，停止对外战争，而非挑起战争。
如今，在2001年9月11日恐怖袭击触发美国全球“反恐战争”的四分之一个世纪后，他却陷入了自己挑起的一场不受欢迎的冲突。分析人士称，这场冲突有可能成为他版本的“永久战争”。
路透社每日简报新闻通讯为您提供开启一天所需的全部新闻。在此注册。
随着9/11周年纪念临近，外交政策圈将特朗普对伊朗的战争与此前漫长且引发分歧的阿富汗和伊拉克战争相提并论。这也引发了人们的质疑：美国是否再次未能汲取过去冲突的教训，或是未能制定明确的撤军战略。
“特朗普打破了华盛顿战后伊拉克和阿富汗战争以来的一项重要约束，即不再在中东发动另一场大规模、无期限的战争，”华盛顿智库国际政策中心的西纳·图西表示。“这可能会让他的继任者继承……一场根深蒂固的美伊对抗。”
政府官员称，对伊朗的战争与后9/11时代旷日持久的军事行动截然不同。
在伊拉克和阿富汗战争期间，美国推翻了敌对政权，部署了数千名地面部队以占领和控制领土，双方伤亡惨重，并竭力推行西式治理。
而此次，美国主要依赖空中和海军力量，这些行动在军事和经济上打击了伊朗，但并未击败伊朗，也未如特朗普最初敦促的那样，促使伊朗民众推翻本国统治者。
但开战六个月后，美国陷入了一场消耗战，其间不时爆发激烈冲突——本周油轮遇袭事件就是典型例证。与此同时，特朗普正试图收紧对德黑兰的经济绞索。
分析人士警告，这场冲突很可能会持续到远超美国11月中期选举，届时选民对战争的反对可能会威胁到特朗普所在的共和党保住国会控制权的机会。
而且，与此前的几场战争一样，尽管经济成本已波及美国消费者，但目前仍看不到明确的撤军途径。
德黑兰对霍尔木兹海峡石油运输的干扰推高了美国汽油价格。这场战争削弱了特朗普的支持率，也损害了美国的国际声望——这同样是伊拉克和阿富汗战争带来的后果之一。
白宫发言人安娜·凯利称，只有特朗普“有勇气”就伊朗核问题对抗德黑兰，他已实现了所有目标，伊朗经济正因加强的制裁和美国海上封锁而濒临崩溃。
她未直接回应路透社有关伊朗冲突如何纳入美国后9/11战争遗产的提问。
被忽视的教训？
分析人士称，特朗普未能汲取后9/11时代的核心教训。2001年的袭击事件中，基地组织恐怖分子劫持飞机撞向纽约世界贸易中心和华盛顿郊外的五角大楼，造成近3000人死亡。
这些教训包括长期战争带来的巨大政治代价，以及为生存而战的顽固对手构成的威胁。
袭击事件引发了数十年的冲突：先是入侵庇护基地组织领导人的阿富汗，随后是2003年入侵伊拉克——这场战争的依据后来被证明是虚假情报，即伊拉克正在研发大规模杀伤性武器。
乔治·W·布什总统发起的两场战争拖垮了美国军队，破坏了中东地区的稳定。
由此引发的美国国内反弹为十年后特朗普的崛起埋下了伏笔，他在2024年连任竞选时承诺避免军事冒险，专注解决美国人的经济关切。
但与布什政府低估美国在伊拉克和阿富汗将面临的叛乱一样，分析人士称，特朗普及其助手也误判了伊朗的韧性和封锁全球五分之一能源运输的能力。
值得注意的是，特朗普与以色列于2月28日联合发起的“史诗之怒行动”，并非由类似9/11的国家创伤事件引发，批评人士认为这是一场主动选择的战争。专家也驳斥了特朗普所称的伊朗核计划对美国构成迫在眉睫威胁的说法。
伊朗或许借鉴了阿富汗塔利班的经验——在美军混乱撤离五年后，塔利班重新掌权：坚定的对手可以凭借持久战拖垮美国的优势火力，同时国内压力会逐渐削弱美国的决心。
伊朗冲突也凸显了盟友寥寥便开战的代价。
布什在发动伊拉克和阿富汗战争前获得了大量国际支持，尽管这种支持后来逐渐减弱。
相比之下，特朗普在未事先充分磋商或解释的情况下便对伊朗动武，且发现欧洲和亚洲领导人大多拒绝响应他的援助要求。
此前，特朗普威胁要吞并格陵兰岛、质疑北约的作用、削减对乌克兰的武器供应以及对贸易伙伴征收全面关税，这些事件已导致美欧及其他地区的关系紧张。
盟友付出高昂代价
这场冲突还与伊拉克战争存在相似之处：地区溢出效应出乎华盛顿意料，此次表现为德黑兰对美国海湾盟友的报复。
伊朗的邻国暗中寻求缓和一场它们从未希望发生的冲突，一名海湾国家官员哀叹，本届政府可能正在重蹈后9/11战争的一些覆辙。
“（美国）的战略是什么？”这位要求匿名的官员问道。
沙特分析师阿齐兹·阿尔加沙良形容，海湾地区“对美国一时兴起引发的战争感到束手无策、无能为力”。
尽管伊拉克和阿富汗战争最终都沦为不受欢迎的冲突，但它们在发起之初都获得了国内民众的广泛支持。
特朗普对伊朗的战争则从未获得过这样的舆论蜜月期。
大多数美国人从一开始就反对这场战争，他甚至遭到了其“美国优先”运动中知名人士的批评。
特朗普最初曾期望复制1月3日突袭抓获委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗式的速胜。
但伊朗行动最终演变成一场令人不安的僵局，未能实现特朗普不断变化的多数目标，包括终止伊朗核计划，同时还耗尽了五角大楼的导弹库存。
不过，特朗普并非没有支持者。
华盛顿反伊朗智库防御民主基金会负责人马克·杜博维茨否认特朗普将美国拖入了一场无休止的战争，并坚称他已取得成功，最终将赢得胜利。
“伊朗伊斯兰共和国与美国的对抗已经持续了47年，”杜博维茨说。“现在我们反击了。”
马特·斯佩塔尔尼克报道并撰文；蒂姆尔·阿扎里在利雅得补充报道；唐·杜菲和丹尼尔·沃利斯编辑
Trump’s Iran campaign echoes the post-9/11 ‘forever wars’
2026-09-10T05:04:02.653Z / Reuters
WASHINGTON, Sept 10 (Reuters) – When Donald Trump campaigned for a second term in the White House, he promised to be a “president of peace” who would stop foreign wars, not start them.
Now, a quarter-century after the September 11, 2001, attacks that triggered America’s global “war on terror,” he is entangled in an unpopular conflict of his own making that analysts say risks becoming his version of a “forever war.”
The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here.
With the 9/11 anniversary at hand, Trump’s war against Iran is drawing comparisons in foreign policy circles to the long, divisive conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq that preceded it. It is also prompting questions about whether the U.S. has again failed to learn the lessons of past conflicts or prepare a clear exit strategy.
“Trump has broken an important post-Iraq and Afghanistan constraint in Washington against launching another major, open-ended war in the Middle East,” said Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy, a Washington think tank. “That could leave his successor inheriting … an entrenched U.S.-Iran confrontation.”
Administration officials have said the war against Iran is nothing like the protracted post-9/11 engagements.
During the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. removed hostile governments, committed thousands of ground troops who took and held territory, suffered and inflicted much higher casualties and struggled to instill Western-style governance.
This time, the U.S. is relying mainly on air and naval power, operations that have damaged Iran militarily and economically but have not defeated it or spurred Iranians to overthrow their rulers as Trump initially urged.
But after six months of war, the United States is mired in a battle of attrition punctuated by bursts of hostilities – exemplified by this week’s exchange of attacks on oil tankers – while Trump tries to tighten the economic noose around Tehran.
Analysts warn it is likely to drag on well past the U.S. midterm elections in November, when voters’ opposition to the war could threaten Trump’s Republican Party’s chances of keeping control of Congress.
And, much like those earlier conflicts, there is no obvious exit even as the economic costs weigh on U.S. consumers.
Tehran’s disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed U.S. gasoline prices higher. The war has weakened Trump’s approval ratings and undermined Washington’s international standing, which was also one of the repercussions from the Iraq and Afghan wars.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump alone had “possessed the courage” to confront Iran over its nuclear program, that he had achieved all of his objectives and Iran’s economy was being crippled by stepped-up sanctions and a U.S. maritime blockade.
She did not respond directly to Reuters’ questions on how the Iran conflict fits into America’s legacy of post-9/11 wars.
LESSONS IGNORED?
Analysts say Trump has failed to heed the central lessons of the post-9/11 era, which began after al Qaeda militants crashed planes into New York’s World Trade Center and the Pentagon outside Washington, killing nearly 3,000 people.
Those include the steep political downsides of long wars and the dangers posed by an entrenched foe fighting for its survival.
The attacks led to decades of conflict, starting with the invasion of Afghanistan, where al Qaeda leaders were sheltering, and followed by the 2003 invasion of Iraq, based on what turned out to be faulty intelligence that it was developing weapons of mass destruction.
The twin wars undertaken by President George W. Bush overstretched the U.S. military and destabilized the Middle East.
The resulting U.S. public backlash helped fuel Trump’s rise a decade ago, and he won a second term in 2024 vowing to avoid military adventurism and focus on Americans’ economic concerns.
But similar to how the Bush administration underestimated the insurgencies the U.S. would face in Iraq and Afghanistan, Trump and his aides have miscalculated Iran’s resiliency and ability to throttle a fifth of the world’s energy shipments, analysts say.
Notably, Trump’s “Operation Epic Fury” launched alongside Israel on February 28 was not precipitated by a 9/11-type national trauma but was deemed by critics to be a war of choice. Experts have disputed Trump’s claims that Tehran’s nuclear program posed an imminent threat to the U.S.
Iran may be taking a page from Afghanistan’s Taliban, who returned to power five years ago after a chaotic U.S. withdrawal, that a determined foe can outlast Washington’s superior firepower while domestic pressure erodes its resolve.
The Iran conflict has also illustrated the cost of going to war with few allies on board.
Bush secured significant international support before launching his Iraq and Afghan campaigns, though that backing waned over time.
By contrast, Trump attacked Iran with little prior consultation or explanation and has found European and Asian leaders mostly resistant to his demands for assistance.
Relations with Trump had already been strained by his threat to seize Greenland, his questioning of NATO’s utility, his reduction of weapons supplies to Ukraine and his sweeping tariffs on trade partners.
HIGH COST FOR ALLIES
The conflict has also mirrored the Iraq invasion in terms of a regional spillover that seemed to catch Washington off-guard, in this case Tehran’s retaliation against U.S. Gulf allies.
With Iran’s neighbors quietly seeking to de-escalate a conflict they never wanted, a Gulf official lamented that the administration might be making some of the same errors of the post-9/11 wars.
“What was the (U.S.) strategy here?” asked the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Saudi analyst Aziz Alghashian described “a sense of limitation and helplessness in the Gulf about the wars that are taking place due to the whims of the United States.”
While the Iraq and Afghan wars ended as unpopular conflicts, both started with solid support at home.
Trump’s war enjoyed no such honeymoon in public opinion.
Most Americans were against it from the outset, and he has even drawn criticism from prominent figures associated with his “America First” movement.
Trump had initially expected to replicate his quick win from a January 3 raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro.
But the Iran campaign instead has hardened into an uneasy stalemate that has not achieved most of Trump’s shifting objectives, including shutting down its nuclear program, and has depleted the Pentagon’s missile stockpiles.
Still, Trump is not without defenders.
Mark Dubowitz, head of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, an anti-Iran think tank in Washington, denied Trump had plunged the U.S. into an endless war and insisted he had scored successes that would eventually bring victory.
“It’s been a 47-year war waged by the Islamic Republic against America,” Dubowitz said. “And now we’ve struck back.”
Reporting and writing by Matt Spetalnick; Additional reporting by Timour Azhari in Riyadh; Editing by Don Durfee and Daniel Wallis