2026-09-10T10:03:42.012Z / reuters.com
达拉斯，9月10日（路透社）——在共同创立的美国转折点组织（Turning Point USA）联合创始人查理·柯克遇刺一年后，该组织规模大幅扩张，在大专院校的影响力不断提升，稳固了其在共和党政坛中的地位。
但柯克帮助吸引到共和党内的部分年轻选民，并未表现出对共和党籍总统唐纳德·特朗普的绝对忠诚，这对帮助特朗普在2024年重返白宫的选举联盟构成了考验。
周四将是柯克遇刺一周年纪念日，共和党将在首届中期选举代表大会上悼念柯克，而此时共和党正面临年轻男性选民群体支持率下滑的迹象——这一关键选民群体是特朗普胜选的重要助力。
31岁的柯克在犹他州奥勒姆市犹他谷大学的一场辩论活动中颈部中弹身亡。泰勒·罗宾逊已被指控杀害柯克，犹他州一名法官上周裁定，检方可以寻求死刑判决。
柯克去世后的一年里，他助力打造的保守派运动受到了两方面的冲击：一是围绕其遇刺事件的阴谋论，二是部分年轻选民对生活成本、伊朗战争以及与 convicted sex offender杰弗里·爱泼斯坦相关档案的不满情绪加剧。
24岁的乔希·霍尔斯坦是西弗吉尼亚州共和党主席，他高中时期曾在转折点组织的培训活动中首次结识柯克。霍尔斯坦表示，任何动荡都只是暂时的，并指出柯克去世后，西弗吉尼亚州新增了数十个转折点组织分会。
“显然，如果失去了在这场运动中拥有如此重要话语权的人物，组织必然会进行重组，”霍尔斯坦说道，他补充道，他将达拉斯的悼念活动视为一个契机，提醒年轻选民“真正重要的是我们国家的安全、国家的未来以及年轻人的繁荣”。
生活成本成为关键因素
年轻选民的担忧主要集中在生活成本上。3月底至4月初开展的哈佛大学青年民调显示，50%的18至29岁美国民众表示通胀对他们“影响极大”，45%的受访者称自己难以维持生计或几乎没有经济保障。
根据YouGov/《经济学人》最近的一项民调，年轻选民比其他任何年龄段群体都更反对伊朗战争，仅有16%的人认为开战是正确的决定。
这种反对态度反映出年轻共和党人普遍存在的反干预主义倾向。在年轻男性群体中拥有大量追随者的保守派媒体人士，包括塔克·卡尔森，都在放大对这场战争的批评，称美国对伊朗的政策过度受以色列利益左右。
根据副总统JD·万斯今年6月出版的一本书，柯克在去世前数月就曾警告万斯，许多年轻保守派人士认为以色列对美国外交政策拥有过大影响力，且在某些情况下，对以色列的批评已经越界沦为反犹主义。
“年轻保守派乃至整个共和党内部出现的裂痕——以色列问题是其中的重要部分，”范德堡大学研究保守派政治的历史学教授妮可·赫默说道，“在这个问题上，不少人对特朗普感到愤怒，同时也有很多人对经济状况不满。”
民调支持率下滑
因此，部分年轻男性已经对特朗普失去好感。路透社/益普索的民调显示，上个月，约32%的18至29岁男性认可总统在白宫的表现，较2025年2月的43%有所下降。皮尤研究中心分析的出口民调数据显示，2024年大选期间，特朗普获得了46%的年轻男性选民支持，较2020年上升了7个百分点。
美国转折点组织的发言人安德鲁·科尔维特表示，去年，年轻选民对政府处理爱泼斯坦档案以及打击伊朗核设施的不满情绪不断积累，持续高企的生活成本压力进一步加剧了这种不满。
“查理早已察觉到这些潜在的分歧，并一直在针对性地传递相关信息，”与柯克私交甚笃的科尔维特说道。
尽管面临这些挑战，美国转折点组织在过去一年的发展速度反而加快。科尔维特表示，目前该组织在全美拥有超过3500个高中分会，增幅达180%；大专院校分会超过1500个，增幅超过60%。
“这一切发生在整体政治环境明显存在逆风的背景下，”他说，“我认为这印证了他的遗产以及我们团队的努力。”
美国转折点组织存续发展
凯尔·斯宾塞在其著作《培养他们的右翼立场》中记录了柯克的崛起历程。她表示，柯克在转折点组织搭建的架构，包括青年选民动员机制，依然强大且不容小觑。但她同时指出，特朗普政府所谓的反对“觉醒文化”运动，包括多元化、公平性和包容性项目，已经让年轻保守派失去了一个核心的对立面，削弱了他们的关键团结议题。她补充道，柯克可能比他的继任者更有能力应对这种转变。
“长期以来围绕TPUSA的那种积极、全方位的热度，如今正面临新对手的竞争，”她说道，这里指的是部分年轻选民对社会主义和左翼思想的兴趣日益浓厚。“目前的兴奋点更多地转向了进步派声音。”
年轻选民可能会成为11月中期选举的决定性力量。
塔夫茨大学公民学习与参与信息与研究中心今年早些时候对5549名年轻成年人开展的一项调查显示，56%的18至29岁受访者表示“极有可能”参加中期选举，较2024年总统大选前的同类民调高出2个百分点——而总统大选的投票率通常更高。
这意味着在年轻选民持续面临生活成本压力的背景下，共和党面临的 stakes 进一步升高。
曾与柯克在转折点组织共事的保守派评论员杰克·波索比克在代表大会上对路透社表示，这样的时刻正是柯克最擅长应对的，他总能以年轻人的方式与他们沟通。
“他会说：‘是什么让你对社会主义产生兴趣？……你不能只是呵斥年轻人，你必须倾听他们真正的感受，理解这些情绪’，”波索比克说道，“我认为共和党在这方面的信息传递存在脱节。”
A year after Charlie Kirk’s death, Turning Point USA grows but Trump slips with young voters
2026-09-10T10:03:42.012Z / reuters.com
DALLAS, Sept 10 (Reuters) – One year after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, the organization he co-founded, Turning Point USA, has grown dramatically, expanding its presence at colleges and high schools and cementing itself as a force in Republican politics.
But some of the young voters Kirk helped bring into the party are not proving uniformly loyal to Republican President Donald Trump, testing the coalition that helped return him to the White House in 2024.
Kirk will be memorialized at the Republicans’ first-ever midterm convention on Thursday, exactly one year after he was killed, as the party confronts signs of slippage among young men, a key constituency that powered Trump’s victory.
Kirk, 31, was fatally shot in the neck during a debate at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Tyler Robinson has been charged with killing him, and a Utah judge ruled last week that prosecutors may seek the death penalty.
In the year since Kirk’s death, the movement he helped build has been buffeted by conspiracy theories about his assassination and by rising frustration among some young voters over the cost of living, the Iran war and records tied to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Josh Holstein, the 24-year-old chairman of the West Virginia Republican Party who first met Kirk while a high school student at a Turning Point training event, said any turmoil was temporary and pointed to the addition of dozens of Turning Point chapters across West Virginia since Kirk’s death.
“Obviously there’s going to be a reorganization if you have the unexpected death of somebody with that significant of a voice in the movement,” Holstein said, adding that he saw the memorial in Dallas as an opportunity to remind young voters “that what matters is the safety of our country, the future of our country and prosperity for young people.”
COST OF LIVING A FACTOR
Young voters’ concerns are focused largely on the cost of living. A Harvard Youth Poll, conducted in late March and early April, found that half of Americans ages 18 to 29 said inflation affected them “a lot,” while 45% said they were struggling to make ends meet or have little financial security.
They are also more opposed than any other age group to the Iran war, with just 16% saying it was the right decision, according to a recent YouGov/Economist poll.
That opposition reflects a broader strain of anti-interventionism among younger Republicans. Conservative media figures with large followings among young men, including Tucker Carlson, have amplified criticism of the war by arguing that U.S. policy toward Iran was shaped too heavily by Israeli interests.
Months before his death, Kirk warned Vice President JD Vance that many young conservatives believed Israel had too much sway over U.S. foreign policy and that, in some cases, criticism of Israel was crossing into antisemitism, according to a book Vance published in June.
“The rifts that are happening among younger conservatives and the party more broadly – Israel is a huge part of that,” said Nicole Hemmer, a history professor at Vanderbilt University who studies conservative politics. “There’s quite a lot of anger on that front with Trump, and there’s a lot of anger about the economy.”
DOWNWARD SWING IN POLLS
As a result, some young men have soured on Trump. Last month, some 32% of men aged 18 to 29 approved of the president’s performance in the White House, down from 43% in February 2025, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. Trump garnered the support of 46% of young males in the 2024 election, up seven points from 2020, according to exit polling analyzed by Pew Research.
Andrew Kolvet, a spokesperson for Turning Point, said Kirk had watched frustration among young voters build last year over the administration’s handling of the Epstein files and the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, with persistent cost-of-living pressures deepening the discontent.
“Charlie saw these fault lines emerging and was messaging to it,” said Kolvet, a close friend of Kirk’s.
Despite those challenges, Turning Point’s growth has accelerated over the past year. The group now has more than 3,500 high school chapters nationwide, up 180%, and more than 1,500 college chapters, up more than 60%, Kolvet said.
“It’s happened amidst a broader political environment where there are obvious headwinds,” he said. “I think it’s a testament to his legacy and the team here.”
TURNING POINT ENDURES
Kyle Spencer, who chronicled Kirk’s rise in her book “Raising Them Right,” said the infrastructure he built at Turning Point, including a youth voter turnout operation, remains formidable and should not be underestimated. But she said the Trump administration’s campaign against what it calls woke culture, including diversity, equity and inclusion programs, has deprived young conservatives of a central adversary, dulling a key rallying point for them. Kirk, she added, would likely have been better equipped than his successors to navigate the shift.
“The really like positive, kind of all-encompassing buzz around TPUSA that was in existence for such a long time is kind of now competing with this new kid on the block,” she said, referring to a growing interest among some young voters in socialist and left-wing ideas. “The excitement right now is gravitating more towards progressive voices.”
Young voters could prove decisive in midterm elections in November.
A survey of 5,549 young adults conducted earlier this year by Tufts University’s Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement found that 56% of respondents ages 18 to 29 were “extremely likely” to vote in the midterms, two points higher than in a comparable poll ahead of the 2024 presidential election, when turnout is typically higher.
That raises the stakes for Republicans as young voters grapple with persistent cost-of-living pressures.
Jack Posobiec, a conservative commentator who worked alongside Kirk at Turning Point, said this was the kind of moment made for Kirk, who excelled at meeting young people on their own terms.
“He would say: ‘What is driving your interest in socialism? … You can’t just browbeat young people. You have to listen to what they’re actually feeling, understand it,’” Posobiec told Reuters at the convention. “I think there is a disconnect in the Republican messaging when it comes to that.”