CBS News出口民调揭示民主党在2026年中期选举中的胜选原因


2026年11月4日 美国东部时间上午10:01 / CBS新闻

作者:珍妮弗·德·平托、弗雷德·巴克斯

注:本文发布后,民调百分比可能已有更新。


经济议题帮助特朗普总统在2024年胜选,而同样的议题导致他所在的政党在2026年落败。

在部分经济不满情绪的推动下,特朗普2024年成功争取到的部分民主党联盟群体,今年又倒向了民主党。

对经济持续的负面评价,让执政党陷入困境。根据CBS新闻出口民调,那些称经济状况不佳的选民投票给了众议院民主党候选人。

这是连续第二次选举中,多数选民告诉我们通胀给他们带来了困难,且更多选民表示,与两年前相比,自己的经济状况更差——这些选民在众议院选举中支持民主党而非共和党。

此次选举显然是对特朗普的一次全民公投,很大程度上是对他的政策的拒绝。

在全国范围内,多数受访者表示,特朗普的关税政策损害了经济,他政府的移民行动做得太过火,且采取军事行动的决定是错误的。

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/exit-econ-rating.png

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/exit-vote-among-econ.png

重返民主党的群体

2024年,特朗普在全国范围内赢得了年轻选民、拉丁裔和女性选民的支持,但今年,这些群体中的多数都将票投给了众议院民主党候选人。民主党在女性选民中的优势,与2018年类似——当时民主党在总统首个任期内赢得了众议院控制权。

而且这些关键群体中的多数都表示,生活成本是他们投票时的关键考量因素。

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/women-vote.png

民主党在倾向共和党的群体中取得进展

历史上,在总统选举和中期选举中,男性通常支持共和党,但今年他们的选票大体上出现了分歧。

特朗普在2024年以两位数的优势赢得男性选民支持。如今,多数男性不认可特朗普的执政表现,而那些支持特朗普的男性则把票投给了民主党。

出口民调显示,历史上多数白人女性通常投票给共和党,但本次选举中,她们以微弱优势支持了民主党。

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/exit-men.png

与最近两次选举相比,全国选民的党派倾向略微偏向民主党,这对民主党有利。但他们在独立选民中的领先优势,才是帮助他们获胜的关键。

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/exit-indies.png

此次选民群体偏悲观——对国家和经济状况不满,对下一代也不太抱有希望。

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/exit-life.png

因此,民主党可能面临艰巨的任务。

略超半数的选民对该党持负面看法。不过选民确实认为民主党在经济议题上比共和党更有优势,因此他们很可能期待民主党能拿出成果。

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/exit-better-econ.png

乔·威廉姆斯为本文提供了报道支持。

CBS新闻出口民调在选举日及选举前数周,于全国各投票点采访了数千名选民。以下是本次选民民调的实施方式。

分类:

  • 选举投票
  • 出口民调
  • 选举

CBS News exit polls show how Democrats won in the 2026 midterm elections

November 4, 2026 / 10:01 AM EST / CBS News

By Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus

Note: Poll percentages may have updated since this was published.


Economic issues helped propel President Trump to victory in 2024, and those same issues dragged down his party in 2026.

Fueled in part by economic frustration, parts of the Democratic coalition that Mr. Trump made inroads with in 2024 swung back toward Democrats this year.

Persistent negative views of the economy turned against the party in power. Those who said the economy was bad voted for Democrats for the House, according to CBS News exit polls.

This was the second straight election most voters told us inflation was a hardship for them, and more said their finances are worse now compared to two years ago — these voters backed Democrats over the Republicans for the House.

This election was clearly a referendum on Mr. Trump and largely a rejection of his policies.

Nationally, most said his tariffs hurt the economy, his administration’s immigration efforts went too far and the decision to take military action was the wrong one.

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/exit-econ-rating.png

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/exit-vote-among-econ.png

Groups coming back to the Democrats

In 2024, Mr. Trump made gains nationally with young voters, Latinos and women, but majorities of all these groups backed Democrats for the House this year. Democrats’ margins with women were similar to what they were in 2018 when Democrats won control of the House during the president’s first term.

And majorities of each of these key groups said the cost of living was crucial in their vote.

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/women-vote.png

Democrats made inroads with Republican-leaning groups

Historically, men have generally backed Republicans in both presidential and midterm elections, but they largely split their votes this year.

Mr. Trump won men by double digits in 2024. Today, most disapprove of the job he is doing, and those who do backed Democrats.

White women historically mostly vote Republican, but they narrowly backed Democrats in this election, according to exit polls.

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/exit-men.png

The national electorate was slightly more Democratic than the most recent two elections, which helped Democrats. But their lead with independents was critical in putting them over the top.

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/exit-indies.png

This electorate was a pessimistic one — unhappy about the state of the country and the economy and not very hopeful for the next generation.

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/exit-life.png

So the Democrats may have their work cut out for them.

Just over half of voters had an unfavorable view of the party. Voters did give the Democrats an edge over Republicans on the economy, so they likely expect results.

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/exit-better-econ.png

Joe Williams contributed to this report.

_The CBS News exit poll interviewed thousands of voters across the country at polling locations on Election Day and in the weeks leading up to Election Day. This is how the_voter polling was conducted.

In:

  • Voting
  • Exit Polls
  • Election

评论

发表回复

您的邮箱地址不会被公开。 必填项已用 * 标注

湘ICP备2026001899号-2