2026年10月14日 美国东部时间10:39 / 福克斯新闻频道
在无人机袭击报道层出不穷之际，分析师警告“区域战火爆发的可能性越来越大”
作者：保罗·蒂尔斯利 福克斯新闻
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整个非洲之角地区都被认为处于刀锋边缘。10月初，据称由无人机发动的爆炸袭击了埃塞俄比亚首都，美国驻亚的斯亚贝巴大使馆就此向美国公民发出“远程袭击”风险警告。
分析师表示，埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚爆发新战争的可能性极高，双方都有令人担忧的地区势力支持。
前中央情报局分析师、美国国家安全委员会非洲事务前主任卡梅伦·哈德森表示，特朗普政府需要加大介入力度。他对福克斯新闻数字频道说：“地区领导人私下都会表示，他们不希望爆发区域战争。但由于有太多武装势力在彼此国家内部互相干涉，一场区域性大规模冲突的可能性越来越大。特朗普政府现在就需要着手防范这类误判。”
独家报道：特朗普特使谴责南非“杀戮”仇恨口号，称该国正滑向美国对手阵营
美国驻亚的斯亚贝巴大使馆在其网站上警告在埃塞俄比亚的美国公民：“我们了解到，今年10月多起针对埃塞俄比亚军事设施的可能远程袭击报告。美国公民应据此保持警惕，并遵循当地当局的建议。”
大使馆还谴责了流传的虚假信息：“一些社交媒体账号发布了关于埃塞俄比亚安全局势的虚假和误导性报道。敦促美国公民通过多个消息源或可靠渠道核实信息。”
事实上，尽管亚的斯亚贝巴市内及周边主要是军事设施的爆炸事件已得到证实，但这座拥有非盟总部的非洲大城市发生无人机撞楼的骇人场景，目前无法得到确认。
记者向埃塞俄比亚政府置评请求尚未得到回复。
分析师表示，埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚爆发新战争的可能性极高。（Getty Images 供图）
特朗普在非洲稀土矿产竞赛中对华取得重大胜利
埃塞俄比亚之角评论智库执行主任布伦·马莫对福克斯新闻数字频道表示，这一局势可能令人担忧。“如果被确认是空袭或无人机袭击，那么其能力超出了埃塞俄比亚国内叛乱组织的水平，证实了埃塞俄比亚关于外国国家参与的指控。”
反对埃塞俄比亚政府的叛乱组织已联合组成“埃塞俄比亚人民生存力量联盟”。该联盟宣称对亚的斯亚贝巴袭击事件负责，并表示他们使用了无人机。
2026年10月9日，埃塞俄比亚南部提格雷地区阿迪梅斯诺，埃塞俄比亚国防军（ENDF）与提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF）武装交火期间，一枚无人机袭击摧毁了一辆废弃卡车，烧焦的残骸下散落着被炸毁的弹药。（路透社 供图）
美国武装冲突地点与事件数据研究组织的地区专家贾拉勒·格塔乔·比鲁博士也对无人机用于冲突的新阶段表示担忧。比鲁对福克斯新闻数字频道说：“如果‘生存联盟’具备无人机作战能力，可能从根本上改变冲突格局，将战略控制权重新聚焦于制空权。”
10月初，埃塞俄比亚军队将占领提格雷首府默克莱的叛乱组织驱逐出去。此次行动终结了埃塞俄比亚与提格雷（埃塞俄比亚最北部省份）之间长达四年的停火协议。
2026年10月9日，埃塞俄比亚联邦警察（EFP）成员乘坐皮卡车巡逻，此前联邦军队已击退提格雷人民解放阵线（TPLF）叛乱武装，恢复了在默克莱的行动。埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚互相指责对方发动侵略战争，一场埃塞俄比亚内部冲突有升级为地区战争的风险。过去一周，埃塞俄比亚军队击退了提格雷人民解放阵线叛乱武装，夺回了其首府默克莱，埃塞俄比亚航空公司宣布将于10月11日恢复飞往该城市的航班。（法新社通过Getty Images 供图）
上周有报道称厄立特里亚军队进入埃塞俄比亚。尽管这一指控尚未得到独立核实，但福克斯新闻数字频道看到多段视频，显示似乎有载着身着制服士兵的大型卡车车队通过埃塞俄比亚城市阿迪格拉特。据称亚的斯亚贝巴随后发动了无人机袭击，将厄立特里亚军队赶回了边境。
此次最新冲突的主要导火索是埃塞俄比亚方面表示，该国希望获得红海港口通道。1993年厄立特里亚独立后，埃塞俄比亚成为内陆国家。10月5日，埃塞俄比亚总理阿比·艾哈迈德在宣誓连任五年任期的演讲中表示，出海口“对埃塞俄比亚的文明至关重要”。
他补充道：“基于互谅互让的原则，我们将努力确保埃塞俄比亚拥有出海口。”
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2026年10月6日，联邦军队重新夺回默克莱阿卢拉·阿巴内加国际机场后，埃塞俄比亚国防军成员在机场前集结。（法新社通过Getty Images 供图）
任何冲突都可能出现地区扩大化，这还与埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝的修建有关。埃及和苏丹与亚的斯亚贝巴存在分歧，因为埃塞俄比亚在青尼罗河上修建该大坝影响了下游两国的水资源获取。本月埃及与苏丹、厄立特里亚和索马里结成联盟，正式对埃塞俄比亚持反对立场。
美国国务院一直在积极开展外交努力以解决局势。一位发言人对福克斯新闻数字频道表示，负责政治事务的副国务卿艾莉森·胡克本月会见了厄立特里亚外交部长奥斯曼·萨利赫，并与埃塞俄比亚外交部长格迪恩·蒂莫特奥斯进行了交谈。
此外，负责非洲事务的助理国务卿弗兰克·加西亚也会见了萨利赫部长。该发言人补充道：“两位美国官员都强调了尊重非洲之角所有国家主权和领土完整的重要性。”
在这些会谈之后，国务院发言人托马斯·“汤米”·皮戈特发表声明称：“埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚之间日益加剧的跨境紧张局势有可能影响整个地区。非洲之角无法承受又一场军事冲突和人道主义危机。一场冲突将危及美国与两国在共同利益上的持续合作。”
皮戈特补充道：“我们强烈敦促埃塞俄比亚和厄立特里亚尊重邻国的主权和领土完整，最大限度保持克制，并回到2018年和平框架中商定的对话与合作轨道上来。通过对话实现和平是实现可持续安全、经济增长和繁荣的唯一途径。”
埃塞俄比亚之角评论的马莫对福克斯新闻数字频道表示，实际局势“越来越指向一场可能无法避免的冲突”，并警告了埃及的动机：“与厄立特里亚首都阿斯马拉并行开展的军事和技术合作，也为埃塞俄比亚北部边境增添了战略深度，而埃及在索马里和红海港口项目中不断扩大的角色，则扩展了其地区影响力。”
“埃塞俄比亚及该地区的局势极为动态多变，”分析师卡梅伦·哈德森对福克斯新闻数字频道表示。哈德森补充道：“问题依然存在，鉴于（叛乱）内部联盟的弱点，外部势力是否会试图介入，对阿比施加更大的杠杆压力。”
他继续说道：“我们看到厄立特里亚开始向埃塞俄比亚调遣军队，而包括索马里、埃及、苏丹和厄立特里亚在内的地区国家联盟发表了一份声明，实质上是对埃塞俄比亚及其建立红海海军存在和扩大尼罗河上一系列水电大坝的地区野心发出了隐晦威胁。整个非洲之角地区都处于刀锋边缘，而胡塞武装试图封锁红海航运以及伊朗的冲突，只会让局势更加复杂。”
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埃塞俄比亚国防军成员在亚的斯亚贝巴举行的埃塞俄比亚国防军日庆祝活动上列队游行。（阿曼纽尔·西莱希/法新社通过Getty Images 供图）
“地区冲突的风险仍然很高，”哈德森说。“埃及乐见埃塞俄比亚陷入内部冲突，无法实现其在尼罗河和红海地区的野心。同样，苏丹也希望埃塞俄比亚的内部冲突能分散亚的斯亚贝巴对苏丹境内快速支援部队民兵战争的支持。”
“在世界这个角落，地方争端可能迅速演变为具有全球影响的地区和国际争端，”哈德森补充道，“由于红海地区紧张局势和暴力失控导致的曼德海峡封锁，将很快在美国国内显现出来。”
保罗·蒂尔斯利是一名资深记者，三十多年来在四大洲进行报道。他驻南非约翰内斯堡，可在X平台关注他 @paultilsley。
African nations on ‘knife’s edge’ as US embassy warns Americans of long-range attacks
October 14, 2026 10:39am EDT / Fox News
Amid reports of drone attacks, analyst warns ‘regional conflagration becomes increasingly likely’
By Paul Tilsley Fox News
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The entire Horn of Africa region is said to be on a knife’s edge. As explosions reportedly claimed to be caused by drones hit Ethiopia’s capital city in early October,the U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa warned U.S. citizens of the danger of “long-range attacks.”
Analysts say there’s a high probability that Ethiopia and Eritrea are about to erupt in a new war, with worrying regional backing for both sides.
Former CIA analyst and National Security Council Africa Director Cameron Hudson says the Trump administration needs to become more involved. He told Fox News Digital, “Regional leaders will say privately that they don’t want a regional war. But with so many armed actors and so much meddling going on in each other’s countries, a regional conflagration becomes increasingly likely. It is this kind of miscalculation that the Trump administration needs to be working now to guard against.”
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The U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa took to its website to caution Americans in Ethiopia that it “is aware of reports of possible long-range attacks directed at Ethiopian military installations on several instances in October of this year. U.S. citizens should accordingly exercise caution and follow the advice of local authorities.”
The Embassy also hit out at reported disinformation, “some social media accounts contain false and misleading reports about the security situation in Ethiopia. U.S. citizens are urged to verify information using multiple sources or reliable information.”
Indeed, although explosions in and around Addis Ababa, mainly at military installations, can be confirmed as having taken place, it cannot be established that the frightening spectacle of drones crashing into buildings in a major African city which houses the headquarters of the African Union happened.
Requests for comment to the Ethiopian government were not returned.
Analysts say there is a high probability that Ethiopia and Eritrea are about to erupt in a new war.(Getty Images)
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Blen Mamo, executive director of the Ethiopian Horn Review think-tank, told Fox News Digital this is potentially a worrying development. “If identified as an aerial or drone attack, they exceed the capabilities of Ethiopia’s domestic insurgent groups, confirming Ethiopia’s allegation of foreign state involvement.”
The rebel groups opposing Ethiopia’s government have joined together to form the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. This coalition claimed responsibility for the Addis Ababa attacks, stating they used drones.
Destroyed ammunition lies on the ground under the charred wreckage of an abandoned truck damaged by a drone strike during fighting between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces in Adi Mesno, Southern Tigray region, Ethiopia, Oct. 9, 2026.(Reuters)
Dr. Jalale Getachew Birru, regional expert of the U.S.-based Armed Conflict Location and Event Data research group,is also concerned about a new phase of conflict using drones. Birru told Fox News Digital, “should the Alliance for Survival possess drone capabilities, it could fundamentally alter the dynamics of the conflict, refocusing strategic control on aerial dominance.”
In early October, Ethiopian troops pushed out rebel groups who had occupied the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle. This operation ended a four-year-long ceasefire between Ethiopia and Tigray, the northernmost province of Ethiopia.
Members of the Ethiopian Federal Police (EFP) patrol aboard a pickup truck as they resumed operations after federal forces pushed back the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Mekelle on Oct. 9, 2026. Ethiopia and Eritrea each accused the other of starting a war of aggression as an internal Ethiopian conflict threatened to escalate into a regional war. Over the past week, the Ethiopian army has pushed back the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and seized their capital city, Mekelle, with Ethiopian Airlines saying flights to the city would resume from Oct.11.(AFP via Getty Images)
Last week, reports claimed Eritrean troops had entered Ethiopia. Although the allegations have not been independently verified, Fox News Digital has seen multiple videos showing what appears to be large convoys of trucks carrying uniformed soldiers passing through the Ethiopian city of Adigrat. Addis Ababa is said to have subsequently launched drone attacks and pushed the Eritreans back over the border.
The latest fighting was sparked principally by Ethiopia’s statements that it wants to get access to Red Sea ports. The country became landlocked when Eritrea became independent in 1993. In a speech as he was sworn in for a new five-year term Oct. 5, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said sea access was “of vital importance to Ethiopia’s civilization.”
He added, “Based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia has an outlet to the sea.”
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Members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) gather in front of Mekelle Alula Aba Nega International Airport after federal forces retook control of the facility in Mekelle on Oct. 6, 2026.(AFP via Getty Images)
Possible regional expansion of any conflict also comes from the creation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Egypt and Sudan are at odds with Addis Ababa, after it built the dam across the Blue Nile, affecting access to water to these countries which are downstream. Egypt this month took up a formal position against Ethiopia, when it created a coalition with Sudan, Eritrea and Somalia.
The State Department has been active diplomatically to try and resolve the situation. A spokesperson told Fox News Digital that Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Allison Hooker met this month with Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh and spoke with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timotheos.
Also, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Frank Garcia met with Minister Saleh. The spokesperson added, “Both U.S. officials underscored the importance of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity for all countries in the Horn of Africa.”
Following these discussions, State Department spokesman Thomas “Tommy” Piggott released a statement, saying, “Increasing cross-border tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have the potential to affect the entire region. The Horn of Africa cannot sustain another military conflict and humanitarian crisis. A conflict jeopardizes ongoing U.S. collaboration on shared interests with both countries.”
Piggott added, “We strongly urge Ethiopia and Eritrea to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of their neighbors, exercise maximum restraint and return to dialogue and cooperation as agreed in their 2018 peace framework. Peace through dialogue is the only path toward sustainable security, economic growth, and prosperity.”
The Horn Review’s Mamo told Fox News Digital the reality on the ground is “increasingly pointing toward a conflict that may prove impossible to avoid,” and warned of Egypt’s motives: “Parallel military and technical cooperation with Asmara (the capital of Eritrea) also adds strategic depth along Ethiopia’s northern frontier, while Egypt’s expanding role in Somalia and Red Sea port initiatives extends its regional influence.”
“The situation in Ethiopia and in the region is extremely dynamic,” analyst Cameron Hudson told Fox News Digital. Hudson added, “The question remains, given the weakness of the internal (rebel)coalition, will external forces attempt to step in and exert greater leverage against Abiy.”
He continued, “We are seeing Eritrea begin to move forces into Ethiopia, while a coalition of regional states including Somalia, Egypt, Sudan and Eritrea have issued a statement that amounts to a veiled threat against Ethiopia and its regional ambitions to establish a Red Sea naval presence and expand a series of hydroelectric dams on the Nile. The entire Horn of Africa region is on a knife’s edge and it is being made only more complicated by Houthi efforts to shut Red Sea shipping and the war in Iran.”
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Members of the Ethiopian National Defense Force parade during a celebration of Ethiopian Defense Force day in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.(Amanuel Sileshi/AFP via Getty Images)
“The risk of regional conflict remains high,” Hudson said.”Egypt would be happy to see Ethiopia bogged down in internal conflict and unable to pursue its ambitions on the Nile and in the Red Sea. Similarly, Sudan hopes that internal conflict in Ethiopia distracts Addis from its support of the rapid support forces militia in Sudan’s war.”
“Local disputes can quickly become regional and international disputes with global consequences very quickly in this corner of the world,” Hudson added, “Closure of the Bab el Mandab Strait, owing to unchecked tensions and violence across the Red Sea, will quickly be felt in the U.S.”
Paul Tilsley is a veteran correspondent who has reported from four continents for more than three decades. Based in Johannesburg, South Africa, he can be followed on X @paultilsley.