2026-10-18T04:00:44.647Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/18/politics/republicans-voter-anger-midterms
本月在传统红州中西部进行的一场共和党焦点小组座谈，让参会者对本党选民的发言感到意外。
据参与讨论的人士透露，当被问及将汽油价格上涨归咎于何人时，这些选民将矛头指向了“腐败政客”和“亿万富翁”。这一回应让一些资深策略师感到惊讶——他们从未见过在国会选举中，政府腐败成为如此多共和党选民的首要议题。
在这片可靠的共和党票仓农业带出现的这种情况，只是共和党面临的一个明显问题的缩影：他们的众议院竞选战场正扩展至肯塔基州、威斯康星州和阿肯色州等地。甚至一些共和党议员也承认，他们的政党需要更好地回应选民对他们眼中失灵的政府体系的愤怒，否则就有彻底失去选民支持的风险。
“这真是艰难的时刻……不管是房贷、电费还是其他所有商品的价格，他们都很难负担得起。这是实实在在的困境，比我们应对的那些圈内破事重要得多。”新泽西州共和党众议员杰夫·范·德鲁说道。他在国会中以支持特朗普的民粹主义者形象示人，敢于指出本党在医疗成本上涨等议题上的失职。
尽管许多选民将不满归咎于两党政客，但一些共和党人担心，选民可能会将这些怨气发泄到执政党身上。
从得克萨斯州到纽约州再到佛罗里达州，参与众议院竞选的共和党人私下向CNN承认，他们对选民的愤怒情绪感到不安，尤其是那些有子女的工薪阶层选民——他们的汽油和食品价格正飙升。一名参与国会竞选的共和党顾问将腐败主题描述为本次中期选举中一个“被低估的事实”，称即便在本周期可靠的共和党席位中，腐败也是两到三个关键议题之一。
有人担心，在受高燃油和食品价格打击最严重的地区，共和党可能会遭遇惨败——他们担忧许多蓝领工人感到被这位曾承诺“抽干沼泽”的总统忽视，而这位总统反而计划斥资数百万美元在“沼泽”中建一座舞厅。
共和党人大多对保住众议院席位持悲观态度，但他们认为参议院仍有希望，因为民主党可能需要在艾奥瓦州、阿拉斯加州或俄亥俄州等红州获胜。
即便如此，共和党内部多名众议院共和党幕僚表示，他们看到了一丝微弱的乐观迹象：一些选区的内部民调较几周前被许多人视为末日场景的情况有所改善。一些人认为，有证据表明部分选民正“回归”本党，尤其是在拥有强劲候选人的选区，而投入这些竞选活动的数亿美元资金可能开始发挥作用。
“在一些地方，民调正朝着对我们有利的方向发展。”一名参与众议院竞选的共和党幕僚告诉CNN，由于竞选竞争激烈，他拒绝透露具体细节。
但众议院选区的整体形势对共和党来说仍不乐观，该党总统在两年前以两位数优势赢得的州支持率已低于及格线。到目前为止，顶级共和党超级政治行动委员会已经停止为两名现任议员提供资金——CNN率先报道了该委员会正在考虑这一做法——同时还停止了他们原本试图拿下的多个席位的资金投入。
民主党方面则信心满满，认为他们将赢得众议院多数席位，而且优势不会很小。他们尤其看好击败现任共和党众议员：得克萨斯州的莫妮卡·德拉·克鲁斯、亚利桑那州的胡安·西斯科马尼、科罗拉多州的加布·埃文斯，以及宾夕法尼亚州的瑞安·麦肯齐和斯科特·佩里。再加上共和党团体已经放弃的两个现任议员席位，据多位熟悉内部民调的人士透露。他们还自信能拿下北卡罗来纳州第11选区的开放席位——该选区的共和党领导人曾施压众议员查克·爱德华兹不要寻求连任——以及内布拉斯加州第2选区，共和党也已在该选区撤回了资源。
共和党仍在大多数这类选区投入资金，并表示他们的内部民调显示存在获胜路径，尤其是对西斯科马尼和埃文斯，可能还有德拉·克鲁斯。他们还希望在北卡罗来纳州第11选区等席位获得最后一刻的热情提振，副总统JD·万斯计划于本周初前往该选区进行访问。
一名参与众议院竞选的共和党幕僚将这些民主党瞄准的席位都描述为“纯粹的势均力敌选区”。
共和党内部对一些现任议员也存在一些不安情绪，比如阿肯色州众议员弗兰奇·希尔和明尼苏达州众议员布拉德·芬斯塔德——他们所在的选区都是深红选区，不过几乎没人认为这些席位会易主。他们预计这类选区的竞争会比党内人士预期的更激烈、花费更高，但大多数人并不认为会出现最糟糕的情况。
另一名要求匿名的共和党幕僚强调，他不认为希尔这类现任议员有落选风险：“如果弗兰奇·希尔都输了，那简直就是他妈的大屠杀。我看不出这种可能。”
尽管共和党对民主党一些野心勃勃的目标嗤之以鼻，但该党正越来越多地投入真金白银来扩大竞选版图。伊利诺伊州州长JB·普利茨克——潜在的2028年总统候选人——牵头开展了一项2000万美元的行动，进军红州领地，其中包括试图拿下希尔的席位。在接受采访时，普利茨克表示，他正试图将共和党资金从更传统的摇摆选区转移出来，“支持那些可能在特朗普+10（选区）中参选的候选人，但说实话，我们的候选人的支持率甚至持平或领先。”
特朗普并未排除保住众议院的可能性，他上周在电话中告诉范·德鲁：“我们仍有机会。”这位议员回忆道。众议院议长迈克·约翰逊则表示，当前的选举环境“感觉像2024年”——那一年特朗普获胜，共和党保住了众议院席位并拿下了参议院。
约翰逊还表示，他认为民调可能低估了共和党选民的热情。
“我亲临了将决定众议院多数席位归属的摇摆选区，我可以告诉你，现在局势正在发生变化。”约翰逊在从缅因州到德克萨斯州的密集多州竞选行程中说道，“我可以告诉你，民调并未反映出这一点。”
并非所有共和党人都持这种乐观态度。
“现在的形势非常糟糕……至于糟糕到什么程度，我们还不得而知。”范·德鲁补充道，不过他预测共和党仍可能避免出现蓝色浪潮。
共和党幕僚补充称，民主党的形象也不受选民欢迎，他们的几位现任议员因腐败攻击广告在电视上遭到重创。（共和党尤其针对俄亥俄州众议员马西·卡普图尔、得克萨斯州众议员文森特·冈萨雷斯和加利福尼亚州众议员亚当·格雷展开攻击。）
全国各地的数十名民主党候选人也发现，这一议题对共和党十分有效。
首次参选的萨姆·福斯塔格是一名劳工领袖，他在蒙大拿州第1选区开展了一场激进的民粹主义竞选活动，迫使共和党投入时间和资金来保卫这个开放席位。
“腐败和过去几年的许多其他事情一样，过去人们只会客气地、私下地谈论它，但现在一切都摆到了台面上。”福斯塔格告诉CNN。他认为特朗普曾两次通过谈论同一议题赢得总统职位，但后来却未能兑现承诺。
“特朗普告诉所有人一个简单的真相：体制已经失灵……当他这么说的时候，我们的白宫主人是民主党人，他告诉我们经济比我们想象的要好。”福斯塔格说道，他指的是时任总统乔·拜登，“这两种说法中，有一种比另一种更有真实性，不幸的是，事实证明特朗普在所有承诺的修复措施上都撒了谎。”
CNN的帕特里克·斯维特克、大卫·赖特和阿莱特·萨恩斯为本报道做出了贡献。
‘These are really tough times’: House Republicans confront voter fury over Trump’s Washington in final midterm stretch
2026-10-18T04:00:44.647Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/18/politics/republicans-voter-anger-midterms
GOP operatives conducting a focus group in a traditionally red Midwestern state this month were taken aback by what they heard from their own party’s voters.
Asked what they blamed for rising gas prices, those voters pointed to “corrupt politicians” and “billionaires” — a response that surprised some longtime strategists who’ve never seen government corruption emerge as a top issue for so many Republican voters in congressional races, according to a person involved in the discussions.
Those observations in the reliably red farm belt are just one instance of a glaring pattern for Republicans, as their House battlefield expands into places like Kentucky, Wisconsin and Arkansas. Even some GOP lawmakers acknowledge their party needs to do a better job of making sure they’re responding to voters’ anger at what they see as a broken system of government — or risk losing them altogether.
“These are really tough times … Between their mortgage and their electric bill and the cost of everything else, they’re having a hard time making it. That’s real. That’s a lot more important than the other insider crap we deal with,” said GOP Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey, who’s built a brand in Congress as a Trump-loving populist who’s willing to point out his own party’s failures on issues like rising healthcare costs.
And while many voters blame politicians on both sides of the aisle, some Republicans fear they could soon take out those frustrations on the ones in charge.
Republicans involved in House races from Texas to New York to Florida have privately acknowledged to CNN they’re troubled by flashes of anger particularly from working-class voters with kids, whose gas and grocery prices are skyrocketing. One GOP consultant working on congressional races described the theme of corruption as an “underappreciated fact” of this midterm, calling it a “two or three issue” in polling even in reliably red seats this cycle.
There are fears that Republicans could see a washout in parts of the country that are suffering the most from high fuel and grocery prices — where they worry many blue-collar workers are feeling ignored by the president who once pledged to drain the swamp and, instead, has made plans to build a ballroom in it with a price tag in the millions.
Republicans are mostly downbeat about holding onto the House, though they believe the Senate is still in reach, given that Democrats would likely need to win red states like Iowa, Alaska or Ohio.
Even so, inside the GOP, multiple House Republican operatives say they are seeing some slight glimmers of optimism as internal polling in some races has improved from what many saw as a doomsday scenario a few weeks ago. Several believe they’re seeing evidence that some voters are coming “home,” especially in races with strong candidates, and that the hundreds of millions of dollars being poured into those contests may be starting to help.
“In some places the polls are moving in our direction,” one GOP operative involved in House races told CNN, declining to offer specifics because of the competitive nature of the campaigns.
But the House map is still not a rosy picture for the party, whose president is underwater in states he won by double digits two years ago. Top GOP super PACs have cut off funding for two incumbents so far, which CNN first reported was under consideration, as well as several seats they were attempting to flip.
Top Democrats, for their part, remain confident they will win the majority – and not by a small margin. They feel particularly good about defeating incumbent GOP Reps. Monica De La Cruz of Texas, Juan Ciscomani in Arizona, Gabe Evans in Colorado plus Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry in Pennsylvania. That’s on top of the two incumbents already abandoned by GOP groups, according to multiple people familiar with internal polling. They’re also confident they’ll win in the open seat in North Carolina’s 11th , where GOP leaders pressured Rep. Chuck Edwards not to seek reelection, and Nebraska’s 2nd, where Republicans also pulled resources.
Republicans are still spending in most of these races and say their own internal polling shows a path to victory, particularly for Ciscomani and Evans and possibly De La Cruz. There’s also hope of last-minute enthusiasm boost in seats like North Carolina’s 11th, where Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to visit early this week.
One GOP operative involved in House races described each of those Democratic targets as “pure tossups.”
There is some nervousness within the GOP conference about incumbents like Rep. French Hill in Arkansas and Brad Finstad in Minnesota who are in deep red seats, though few actually believe they will flip. They anticipate seats like those will be closer, and more expensive, than people in the party want — but most do not expect the worst.
One Republican operative, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity, stressed that he does not believe an incumbent like Hill is at risk of losing: “If French Hill’s losing, it’s a f**king bloodbath. I don’t see it.”
While Republicans have rolled their eyes at some of Democrats’ most ambitious targets, the party has increasingly put real money behind expanding the map. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a potential 2028 presidential candidate, is leading a $20 million effort to push into red territory, including by trying to flip French’s seat. In an interview, Pritzker said he was trying to divert GOP money from more traditional battleground races and “support candidates where it might be a Trump +10 (district), but honestly, our candidate is running even or even ahead.”
Trump hasn’t ruled out keeping the House, telling Van Drew in a phone call last week: “We still have a shot,” the lawmaker recalled. And Speaker Mike Johnson has said that the environment “feels like 2024” – when Trump won and Republicans kept the House and flipped the Senate.
Johnson also said he believed polling may be underestimating GOP voter enthusiasm.
“I am there on the ground in the swing districts that are going to decide the majority, and I am telling you something is happening right now,” Johnson said as part of a frenzied multi-state swing from Maine to Texas. “I’m telling you, the polling is not reflecting this.”
Not every Republican shares that level of optimism.
“This is a really bad time right now … Just how bad, we don’t know yet,” Van Drew added, though he predicted that Republicans could still avoid a blue wave.
GOP operatives add that the Democratic Party’s brand, too, remains unpopular with voters and several of their incumbents have been swamped by corruption attack ads on TV. (Republicans have gone after Reps. Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, Vicente Gonzalez of Texas and Adam Gray of California in particular.)
Scores of Democratic candidates across the country have also found the issue effective against Republicans.
Sam Forstag, a first-time candidate and labor leader, has run an insurgent populist campaign in Montana’s 1st district that’s forced Republicans to spend time and money defending the open seat.
“Corruption, like a lot of other things in last couple years, is something that used to be spoken about in polite terms and hushed terms and now it’s all out in the open,” Forstag told CNN. He argued that Trump won the presidency twice by talking about this same issue – but then failed to deliver.
“Trump told everybody one singular truth. He said the system is broken … While he was saying that, well, we had a Democrat in the White House telling us the economy is better than we think it is,” Forstag said, referring to then-President Joe Biden. “One of those two messages was a lot, had a lot more veracity to it than the other, and unfortunately, it turned out that [Trump] was lying about all the ways they were going to fix these things.”
CNN’s Patrick Svitek, David Wright and Arlette Saenz contributed to this report