博客

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/ae5096a792a224b4deec4f1e5a38329077f817ec9641708bf2988014ee081c53

7月19日出任英国首相的伯纳姆，星期二（10月27日）满100天。 （法新社）

英国首相伯纳姆上任满100天，成功带领工党取得逾70年来最大的支持率升幅之一。

彭博社报道，7月19日出任首相的伯纳姆，星期二（10月27日）满100天。

根据彭博社综合民调，工党在选民投票意向调查中的支持率已升至28%，高于伯纳姆的前任斯塔默宣布辞职前的约19%。这项综合民调采用九家民调机构的数据，计算过去14天的滚动平均值。

这一趋势证明，执政党在取得压倒性选举胜利仅两年后决定更换党魁是正确的，也印证了伯纳姆的判断，即在处理英国与欧盟关系、国家养老金成本不断攀升等容易引发两极分化的议题时，由他来向民众阐述政府的施政愿景，效果会更好。

工党支持率的回升大致分为三个阶段：斯塔默宣布辞职时、伯纳姆出任首相时，以及新首相上个月在工党大会发表演说之后。伯纳姆在演说中阐述一套雄心勃勃的政策纲领。

根据彭博社对民调数据的分析，工党支持率上升9个百分点，仅次于约翰逊2019年接替特雷莎·梅出任首相，以及布朗2007年接替布莱尔时取得的支持率升幅。

这项分析采用自由民主党上议院议员兼民调专家帕克整理、追溯至1955年的民调数据。分析显示，伯纳姆带领工党取得的支持率升幅，是首相在任期中途更替后平均升幅的两倍以上。

在英国的简单多数制选举制度下，政党即使只获得少数选票，也可能在下议院取得多数席位。斯塔默在2024年大选中便是如此，工党仅获得约三分之一的选票，却赢得近三分之二的议席。

不过，伯纳姆一再排除提前举行大选、重新争取选民授权的可能。

有关分析显示，新首相上任后的支持率升幅通常在约四个月后达到顶峰，并在一年内转为负增长。

约翰逊上任数个月后举行提前大选，并成功赢得压倒性多数席位，但三年后便因一连串丑闻下台。布朗接替时也曾取得与伯纳姆相近的支持率升幅，却在三年后的大选中失去政权。当时，金融危机席卷全球。

对伯纳姆而言，等到举行大选时，政治局势可能已截然不同。目前距离本届国会最长任期届满还不到一半，但以国会任期的这一阶段而言，英国民意变化之大，已属历来罕见。

若将各政党每个季度支持率的变化幅度累加，本届国会的民意波动程度与2017年至2019年的国会并列1955年以来最高。当时，英国正因脱欧谈判陷入动荡。

目前有五个政党的民调支持率持续超过10%，使英国政坛成为历来最分散的局面之一。不过，民调领先的政党，支持率一度平均只有25%。2015年以前，从未有政党在支持率低于33%的情况下领跑民调。

保守党支持率超越英国改革党

民调显示，保守党支持率已超越英国改革党，自2025年1月以来首次成为最受欢迎的右翼政党。这可能成为各党争夺保守派选民支持的一大转折点。

曼彻斯特大学政治学教授福特指出，英国改革党的支持率在过去12个月从30%跌至约20%，原因包括竞选资金丑闻，以及新兴极右翼政党“复兴党”（Restore）在政治立场上抢占改革党的优势。

民调机构More in Common的特赖尔告诉彭博社，相当一部分改革党支持者其实只希望英国由右翼政府执政，因此愿意支持任何最有可能实现这一目标的政党。

他估计，如果巴德诺赫（Kemi Badenoch）领导的保守党在一场与工党势均力敌的大选中处于领先位置，改革党目前多达五分之二的支持者，即全体选民的8%，可能转而支持保守党。

不过，福特补充说，由于目前并没有迫在眉睫的大选，这些选民不会立即转向保守党，但他们可能在竞选期间成为左右选举结果的关键力量。

保守党的支持率逐步回升，加上工党支持率大幅反弹，也意味着两大传统政党的合计支持率近两年来首次超过半数。

伯纳姆与巴德诺赫在政府规模问题上持有截然不同的意识形态立场。随着两人崛起，英国政坛正逐渐摆脱前任首相斯塔默和苏纳克所倡导的“管理型政治”，即通过展示政府治理能力，争取选民支持。

尽管如此，两党合计约50%的支持率，仍远低于战后约80%的平均水平。

芬兰挪威领导人与俄乌总统通话 讨论和平协议

2026年10月27日 18:59

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/f850f89c889bef66075c8b59ea2ff57cf4e37f9a945ddc8bd71c286e66f0d0c5

俄罗斯总统普京（图）、芬兰总统斯图布和挪威首相斯特勒将于星期二（10月27日）通话。 （路透社档案照片）

芬兰总统斯图布和挪威首相斯特勒与俄罗斯总统普京通话，同天也与乌克兰总统泽连斯基通话，讨论俄乌和平协议的前景。

路透社报道，斯图布办公室发声明说，芬兰、挪威和俄罗斯领导人于星期二（10月27日）通话，并称这场讨论坦率而深入。

声明说：“我们都是俄罗斯的邻国。这场战争的结果将直接影响我们自身及整个欧洲的安全。要结束战争，就必须进行直接对话。”

俄罗斯克里姆林宫网站消息指出，普京当天与斯特勒和斯图布通话后，对11月上半月在阿布扎比恢复美国参与的乌克兰问题会谈表示欢迎。

不过，普京在电话中猛烈抨击欧盟和北约国家，称他们的“对抗”政策正在拖延乌克兰战争。

根据克里姆林宫的通话记录，普京也强调，只有充分且无条件考虑俄罗斯的合法利益，才有可能实现公正和长期的和平，但三名领导人同意继续通过电话保持直接联系。

乌克兰方面指出，芬兰和挪威领导人与普京通话后，也与泽连斯基通话。

泽连斯基透露，芬兰和挪威领导人明确告诉普京，需要减少对乌克兰能源和基础设施的袭击。

芬兰和挪威领导人则指出，这次通话的目的是直接向普京传达有关帮助结束战争的未来谈判的信息，而通话涉及俄罗斯、乌克兰和美国计划于下个月在阿布扎比举行的三边会谈。

此次通话安排正值推动和平谈判重回正轨的努力再度升温之际。美国总统特朗普的特使威特科夫上星期在圣彼得堡会见普京。威特科夫此前曾在奥斯陆与乌克兰总统泽连斯基及芬兰、挪威两国领导人会谈，随后前往俄罗斯。

这将是自法国总统马克龙去年7月与俄罗斯总统通话以来，普京与支持乌克兰的欧洲国家领导人之间的首次直接接触。

乌克兰的欧洲盟友正在寻求在欧洲安全讨论中占有一席之地，斯特勒和斯图布都以两国与俄罗斯的共同边界作为他们参与谈判的理由。

克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫在上周会谈后说，俄罗斯将挪威和芬兰视为解决乌克兰战争的潜在新参与方，俄罗斯将看看“他们是否能做到这一点”。

特朗普本月早些时候与普京达成柴油协议后，乌克兰与美国的关系陷入新低，而星链互联网连接速度放缓也加剧紧张局势，星链互联网连接对于基辅抵御俄罗斯导弹袭击的能力至关重要。

John Thune’s balancing act: Inside the GOP leader’s push to save his Senate majority

October 27, 2026 / 5:00 AM EDT / CBS News

Sioux City, Iowa — Less than 24 hours after President Trump held a raucous rally inside an airplane hangar in this western Iowa town, Senate Majority Leader John Thune stood alongside Rep. Ashley Hinson in a strip-mall bar and grill a few miles away.

Looking out over a giant water tank that punctuated the flat plains stretching out to the horizon, Thune and Hinson were hosting a roundtable with six local business owners last Friday, a decidedly less boisterous crowd than the one that had greeted the president. The event last Friday was part of Thune’s final campaign sprint before the midterms, one of several stops he’s made to support his GOP candidates for Senate.

Hinson fielded a reporter’s question that has trailed Republican candidates all fall: How is she threading the needle between the president’s demands for loyalty and his increasingly unpopular policies? She offered a version of what has become her standard answer: that she would back the president when she agreed with him, and be a “thorn in his side” when she did not.

Thune barely flinched. The exchange was representative of the balancing act he is all too familiar with — a line he’s been walking for nearly two years. The South Dakota Republican has led his colleagues through unforgiving terrain, trying to do two things at once: advance the president’s agenda and preserve the Senate’s independence.

Now, with one week to go before the midterms, the election stands as the clearest test yet of whether that balancing act has paid off. A map that once favored Senate Republicans has turned perilous amid an unpopular war with Iran and stubbornly high gas prices, and their low-key leader faces questions voters are about to answer: Has Thune’s approach worked — for Republicans, and for him? And has it been enough to keep the majority?

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/p1144274-1.jpg

Sen. John Thune and Ashley Hinson at the event in Sioux City, Iowa, on Friday, Oct. 23, 2026. Kaia Hubbard / CBS News

“Nothing’s a guarantee”

One day in early fall, as the Senate prepared to leave Washington for the campaign trail, Thune was in his leadership office near the Senate chamber, where staffers were celebrating the first fireplace lighting of the season.

“Nothing’s a guarantee. There are no layups,” he told CBS News.

It had been almost two years since his conference chose him as leader, kickstarting a tenure that has largely been spent guiding Republicans through Democratic opposition and navigating the whims of the White House. With the midterms approaching and gas prices glowing on street corners like daily reminders, Thune made the case for staying the course.

“Right now, short-term, you have the gas price issue,” Thune said. “But I think we have done the kinds of things that have set the economy up, and job creators up, for success … I think the conditions for growth are there.”

Just steps away, behind the closed doors of the Old Senate Chamber, Senate Republicans had elected Thune leader on the heels of the 2024 election. There, beside Ionic columns and crimson drapes, the conference chose a man who was a far cry from the thundering, partisan politics of the moment — one whom colleagues describe with phrases like “team player” and adjectives like “kind.”

It was an unorthodox match for the incoming Trump White House, and for a House speaker across the Capitol who had tied himself closely to the president, raising questions about the dynamic to come.

Thune, 65, is a conservative. He’s moved much of Mr. Trump’s agenda through the Senate. And in more than two decades in Congress, he’s built a reputation for working behind the scenes to get results. But he is decidedly not, to the great frustration of online rabble-rousers, the frontman of the MAGA faithful. And his conference might just prefer it that way.

“He’s steady, conservative, doesn’t lose his temper very easily at all,” said Sen. Mike Rounds of South Dakota. Bernie Moreno of Ohio called him a “super nice guy, incredibly well respected” and “just a very kind human being.” Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said he is “a really decent man.”

Even among Democrats, it is hard to locate someone who will find fault with him personally. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has called his counterpart a “good and decent American” and “someone who loves his country — as we all do.”

With Thune at the helm, the Senate has approved the president’s massive tax, border security and defense agenda, grinding through half a dozen marathon overnight vote sessions. There were bipartisan wins, too: a landmark housing measure, stablecoin legislation, a bill to combat revenge porn and one aimed at stopping the flow of fentanyl.

But heading into the midterms, that track record is at risk of being overshadowed by the war’s toll on the economy — and by questions about what the Republican majority did, or didn’t do, about it.

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/gettyimages-2288271926.jpg

Thune returns to his office at the Capitol on Aug. 4, 2026. Bill Clark/Getty Images

Though Republicans have increasingly expressed concern over the war and its impact on energy prices, only a handful have been willing to break with the president since the conflict began in February. Across more than a dozen votes forced by Democrats to rein in the president’s war powers, the vast majority of the GOP conference has remained united in opposition, granting the president wide deference in steering the conflict. Now, that record is following them on the campaign trail.

Looking out on the Washington Monument from his office, Thune said voters are choosing a path for the future. If Republicans can sell the long-term dividends of their agenda and draw a contrast with Democrats, he argued, “we have a really good chance at keeping the majority.”

It would come down to the “home stretch,” Thune said, his foot swiveling back and forth on its heel: the messaging, the ground game, the “blocking and tackling of elections.”

It’s not the picture some had anticipated, Thune conceded. He framed the moment as a test of endurance, echoing a mindset he traces to his Scandinavian ancestors.

“Life is supposed to be hard,” Thune said. “I’m willing to do things the hard way.”

From South Dakota to the Senate

Thune’s grandfather left Norway for the northern plains, laying railroads that would stretch west across South Dakota. Born in 1961, John Thune grew up in Murdo, a town with no stoplights and a population today of around 500.

His father — a World War II veteran, teacher, coach, athletic director and school bus driver — is at the center of almost every origin story Thune tells. His name, Harold Thune, now adorns the high school auditorium.

“He was our hero,” Thune said of how he and his four siblings saw him.

Basketball features prominently in the stories Thune and those around him tell about his upbringing. At 6 feet 4 inches tall, Thune was a standout in high school, making first-team all-state his senior year.

After one game in which Thune scored 36 points, he remembers his father pointing out that a teammate had been wide open on a play. “He hated ball hogs,” Thune said in his first floor speech of the new Congress in 2025, calling it an attitude he has carried throughout his life.

Another game became the basis for what he calls his “political heritage.” After Thune sank five out of six free throws, Jim Abdnor, then a congressman, approached him and joked, “I noticed you missed one.” It was the start of a decadeslong mentorship. Thune went on to play basketball at Biola University in California and later worked in Abdnor’s Senate office in the 1980s. He served in the Small Business Administration under Ronald Reagan, then returned home to be executive director of the state Republican Party, serve as railroad director and head the state’s municipal league. In 1996, he was elected to the first of three terms as South Dakota’s at-large representative in the House.

His first Senate bid, in 2002, fell short by fewer than 600 votes. Two years later, he took on Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle for the seat that Abdnor once occupied,orchestrating a shakeup that would be felt at the Senate’s highest levels.

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/gettyimages-51323654.jpg

Thune and Daschle on NBC’s “Meet the Press” in September 2004. Alex Wong / Getty Images

“That was a war,” Thune said. He recalled the campaign’s first debate at Dakotafest, an agriculture trade show outside Mitchell, where Daschle’s wife, mother and daughters were seated directly in front of him. His campaign manager, Dick Wadhams, said the debate was when Washington began to take the race — and Thune — seriously.

“You had several hundred people at this debate in this open field outside of Mitchell, South Dakota,” Wadhams said. “I mean, without sounding too much like a homer on this thing, Thune won.”

Thune would pull off the upset that November, winning by more than 4,000 votes. Recruited by President George W. Bush, he became the first challenger in half a century to oust a Senate party leader. His stock skyrocketed, and he became a celebrity — at least by Washington standards — overnight. When he arrived in the Senate that winter, days before his 44th birthday, his reputation preceded him.

“He was like the dragon-slayer,” said Alaska’s Murkowski, who has served alongside him since 2005.

He won in part by casting Daschle as the “chief obstructionist,” faulting him for blocking the president’s nominees and stalling his agenda. More than two decades later, echoes of that fight remain. Thune rails, in his own Midwestern way, against what he has dubbed the “party of no,” after two record-breaking government shutdowns and a Democratic blockade of the president’s nominees.

But he has also faced accusations of obstruction himself — from the leader of his own party.

Thune and Trump

Thune’s traditional style clashed early with the man who became the GOP’s presidential nominee in 2016, nearly a decade before the two were joined in an unlikely partnership.

After the Access Hollywood tape surfaced in October 2016, Thune became the highest-ranking Senate Republican to call for Mr. Trump to withdraw from the race, and he broke with the president on a handful of policies during his first term. When Mr. Trump sought to overturn the 2020 election, Thune said the effort would “go down like a shot dog” in the Senate. After the Jan. 6 attack, he called the president’s actions “inexcusable,” though he voted to acquit him in the impeachment trial that followed. In the 2024 presidential race, Thune initially backed Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina. But when the party coalesced behind Mr. Trump, so did Thune.

The two worked to mend their differences before taking power in 2025. When Senate Republicans chose Thune as leader to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell, the president-elect said he would “do an outstanding job.” Thune, in his first remarks after his election, vowed to work with Mr. Trump on his agenda while preserving the Senate’s role as an independent body.

It wouldn’t be easy. There were messy confirmation fights over controversial Cabinet picks, the era of DOGE and back-and-forths over trade policy. There was talk of a military invasion of Greenland, the uproar over Jeffrey Epstein, strikes on alleged drug boats, the surprise capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and, finally, the war with Iran.

Every day the Senate is in session, reporters in the halls outside his office pepper Thune with questions about the latest from the White House. But he seldom draws sharp lines between himself and the president, instead signaling disagreement through facial expressions and carefully hedged phrasing. Even as a series of poorly timed administration announcements derailed Senate GOP plans this summer, he spoke out only sparingly.

One day in late June, the tension spilled into public view. The president was set to attend the Senate GOP lunch — not at Thune’s invitation — as he pushed a controversial elections bill known as the SAVE America Act, which Thune had repeatedly said lacked the votes. But first, Mr. Trump was due to attend a bill signing in the Capitol Rotunda, where lawmakers from both parties planned to celebrate the landmark housing legislation they had ushered through both chambers. At the 11th hour, the president canceled the signing, demanding that the elections bill pass first.

Thune was on the Senate floor when the president made the announcement. He walked out moments later to a growing crowd of reporters, saying he had just heard the news. Heading back to the floor later that morning, he said the cancellation was the president’s call, but he hoped Mr. Trump would find a way to sign the bill. The president was still coming to lunch, and the day was just beginning.

Leaning against a desk, Thune fidgeted constantly as the chamber voted and the president’s arrival neared. A stream of senators approached with back slaps and pitying looks. One GOP senator joked about being dressed for a “serious meeting.” “Saddle up,” said another, to laughter.

It had become a pattern: a White House move that upended Senate GOP plans with no warning to the leader, followed by Thune working the floor, polling his members on what came next, picking up the pieces.

The lunch meeting was explosive and in many ways emblematic of the president’s approach to the Senate. Mr. Trump railed against the handful of GOP members who had supported a measure to rein him in on Iran the day before, and got into a shouting match with Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. Thune said afterward that there hadn’t been “much of a back-and-forth.”

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/gettyimages-2282587182.jpg

Thune and President Trump on their way to the lunch meeting on June 24, 2026. SAUL LOEB /AFP via Getty Images

The pressure around the SAVE Act has been the most unrelenting, underscoring a broader tension between the filibuster’s fiercest defender and a president who wants to kill it. Thune forecast the fight in his first floor speech as leader, arguing that the filibuster, and the voice it gives the minority, is essential to keeping the Senate a distinct body.

“Unfortunately, today there are a lot of people out there who would like to see the Senate turn into a copy of the House of Representatives,” Thune said. “One of my priorities as leader will be to ensure that the Senate stays the Senate. That means preserving the legislative filibuster, the Senate rule that today has perhaps the greatest impact on preserving the founders’ vision of the United States Senate.”

The stance has earned him plenty of scorn from the right, amplified on social media, and simmering impatience from the president, who has repeatedly warned that Democrats will scrap the filibuster as soon as they get the chance. But Thune hasn’t budged. Democrats may at some point “try and steal the car,” he said, “but we’re not going to hand them the keys.”

Days after the president’s lunch visit, the backlash hit home. The South Dakota Republican Party took up a resolution to censure Thune for his “failure” on the elections bill, claiming he had “wantonly and repeatedly acted as a roadblock” to the president’s agenda. Delegates swiftly rejected it, but the effort showed the fury Thune faced on the right.

Others back home fault him for the opposite. Mike Levsen, a Democrat and former nonpartisan mayor of Aberdeen, South Dakota, has long viewed Thune as a patriot trying to do the right thing. But he now criticizes him in local news columns for not standing up to the president enough.

“I would say, ‘John, what do you think when you get up in the morning, or when you go to bed at night, about what you’re doing?’” Levsen said. He called Thune’s posture “revolutionary” compared with House Speaker Mike Johnson’s. “But boy, we needed some people with some guts. And we just haven’t had them.”

Since becoming leader, Thune has never publicly sparred with the president. The furthest he has gone came in July, when then-White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president’s patience with him was “running out” over the SAVE Act.

“Well, maybe she or somebody else ought to get on the phone and get the votes, right?” Thune said. “It’s 50 around here.”

At the campaign stop in Iowa last week, Thune stuck to his guns and defended how he has led.

“We do things differently, which frustrates people, the president, for example, who wants to get his agenda done quickly. That’s not the nature of the beast in the Senate,” he told CBS News. “So what we try to do is figure out ways to be able to work constructively with [the president] and his team to get things done.”

Would he do things differently, with the benefit of hindsight?

“Not really,” he said. “Not stuff that we can control.”

Thune has also acknowledged the cost of his pushback. In August, when Mr. Trump declined to endorse him for another term as leader, Thune told reporters, “That’s probably expected.” But the next month, when Thune’s name drew boos from a MAGA-aligned crowd at the GOP midterm convention in Dallas, the president came to his defense. Mr. Trump’s chief of staff met with Thune before the Senate left for the campaign trail, and Thune visited the White House with his family early this month. The relationship appears to have improved — for now.

With the majority on the line, that goodwill could evaporate quickly.

The fight for the Senate

One week from Election Day, Senate Republicans are looking anxiously at a map that is nearly unrecognizable from the one they saw after the 2024 elections. Then, Democrats, battered by their losses and contending with retirements of their own, appeared boxed out in all but a few states. Now, facing headwinds that the Senate GOP sees as largely beyond its control, Republicans are locked in a fight for their majority’s survival.

Long before the war became a driving force in races from Ohio to Texas, Thune was working behind the scenes. He built a slate of candidates with an early focus on heading off primary clashes, along with a formidable fundraising operation that would allow Republicans to flood the airwaves down the stretch.

In Michigan and Iowa, where retirements opened up key seats, Thune moved quickly to back Mike Rogers and Ashley Hinson. He secured the president’s endorsement for both despite some reluctance, according to a source familiar with the recruitment effort. (Rogers had been a CNN commentator, and Hinson didn’t endorse Mr. Trump’s 2024 bid until after the Iowa caucuses.) In New Hampshire, while Republicans courted Gov. Chris Sununu, Thune was quietly talking to his brother, former Sen. John Sununu, with whom he had served.

Elsewhere, it wasn’t as straightforward. The push to recruit Gov. Brian Kemp in Georgia fell short, leaving a messy primary to play out. In Texas, where Senate Republicans had backed Sen. John Cornyn for reelection, the president endorsed his opponent, Ken Paxton, a dramatic and costly blow. And in North Carolina, the main super PAC supporting Senate Republicans — the Senate Leadership Fund — scaled back its spending for Michael Whatley earlier this month, a sign of the dimming prospects for holding the seat.

Alex Latcham, the executive director of the Senate Leadership Fund, said Republicans entered the final stretch with an “unprecedented financial advantage and tremendous candidates,” crediting Thune’s “tireless work.”

Whether it’s enough to keep the majority remains to be seen.

Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said if Republicans lose the Senate, it won’t be because they didn’t have enough money, citing SLF’s financial advantage. And he said if Thune had had his way on candidates across the board, Republicans could be in better shape, pointing to Cornyn’s viability against Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico.

“I think Republicans are 50-50 at best to hold the Senate,” Kondik said. “The Democrats might actually be a little bit ahead here in the final week. I think it’s really close, but they’re running a serious risk of losing the majority.”

If that happens, Kondik said, he would place the blame for the loss “more at the feet of the president.”

“The decision to attack Iran and the consequences of that really opened the door for the Democrats in the Senate in a way that might not be the case had that not happened, because Trump’s approval is significantly worse now than it was before the attack, and it’s also led to this gas price problem that I think is politically pretty damaging,” he added.

Thune has campaigned with GOP Senate candidates in Kentucky, Mississippi, Georgia, Minnesota, South Carolina, Florida, Nebraska and Iowa, along with several fundraising swings.

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/gettyimages-2300800135.jpg

Thune and Ricketts in Fremont, Nebraska, on Oct. 20, 2026. Dylan Widger / Bloomberg via Getty Images

“I said, ‘I’ll do whatever I can to help the team,’” Thune told CBS News. “And if that’s just staying out of the way, I’m fine with that.”

As the war and gas prices have darkened the picture, Thune has urged candidates to “run their own campaigns.”

“The president’s going to be a factor in every election,” he told reporters before the recess. “But I think they need to be their own person, and I think that’s the best way to win.”

That is where Thune’s approach meets the ballot. After two years of approving much of the president’s agenda and rarely speaking out against the White House, Senate Republicans may find that distinction hard to draw. It’s the same bet Thune has made as leader: that Republicans can stand with the president on policy while keeping some distance from his most unpopular pursuits. Next week, voters will weigh in.

“The job sucks”

Outside Thune’s office, where a massive wall-mounted bison head named Murdo for his hometown stands guard, Thune projected tepid optimism as the Senate prepared to leave Washington. Asked whether Republicans had done enough in two years to keep the majority, he said emphatically, “Of course we have.”

“We’ve just got to start talking about it,” he said. “If we can stay focused, talk about the future and the two paths over the course of the next several weeks, based on our record of accomplishment, things we got done, things we still need to do, we’ve got a great argument.”

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/gettyimages-2238376478.jpg

Thune speaks to reporters outside of his office on Oct. 2, 2025. ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images

Some of his own members saw it differently, and the frustration was palpable.

“We’re going home, preparing for the midterms, and we’ve not addressed what all of you care about so deeply. That’s affordability,” GOP Sen. John Curtis of Utah said in a video to his constituents, pointing to high gas and diesel prices. “We just have not done a good job, and I think the voters are going to be loud and clear about how they feel about that.”

GOP Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana, who has criticized Thune in recent months as “too cautious” with the Senate agenda, told reporters that Republicans should have turned to affordability immediately after passing Mr. Trump’s signature tax bill in summer 2025. Another party-line bill could still come after the midterms, he said, but “you don’t know what people’s mood is going to be.”

If Republicans fail to hold the Senate, the blame game and finger-pointing will be intense. But Thune objected to the idea that he hasn’t been aggressive enough with the agenda.

“I don’t know how you could be more aggressive,” he said in Iowa. “I look back at the last couple of years, and I think we had wins pretty much at every turn.”

Some frustration is par for the course in a 53-seat majority, where Thune can lose only three Republicans. He has often described the majority as closer to 46 in practice, with several members emboldened to chart their own path after losing primaries or deciding not to seek reelection. Corralling them, his GOP colleagues understand, isn’t for the faint of heart.

“The job sucks,” said Ohio’s Moreno. “He’s got an extraordinarily unwieldy conference, where you have 53 Republicans with 175 ideas, and everybody demands that their idea be the most important one.”

There’s been no sign that Thune would lose his conference’s support in the leadership elections after the midterms. The bigger questions are what Thune himself wants, and whether the president might intervene, especially if Republicans see brutal losses across the board.

In September, reporters had been pressing Thune on whether he planned to run again as leader, and he suggested the midterm results would factor into his decision. In his office, he said he doesn’t “like to get the cart ahead of the horse.” But asked directly, he told CBS News, “Obviously I’m very interested in seeing how things turn out in the election, but my expectation is, yes.”

Murkowski said it’s easy to say “woulda, shoulda, coulda” about how aggressively he has steered the conference. But she said she can “only pretend to imagine the different pressures that he is under, the different levers that others are trying to pull.”

“More often than not, it’s just kind of like, ‘Just hang in there, John,’” she said.

Former Sen. Joe Manchin, the Democrat-turned-independent who once offered to caucus with Republicans to help Thune win the top job, lamented his position under a president “who’s demanding total loyalty above everything else.” Manchin said his hope for Thune going forward is that he “gets his support.”

“Who do you think would be able to do a better job than John, trying to hold it all together?” Manchin said.

Thune said the decision on his leadership is “going to be up to our colleagues.”

Does he expect support from the president, who could push to replace him if the midterms go badly for Republicans? Thune laughed.

“Hard to say. I don’t know. I mean, I don’t bank on it,” he said. “But yeah, if he found his way to do that, that’d be great.”

受美伊战争影响 美国消费者额外汽油开销全球最高

2026-10-27 19:11:21

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/af836fab897da6fc8866368fcb8c4ae16acdea380a16fcd5264c2c284b0250fc

美国消费者的额外汽油开支更高，主要是因为他们更加依赖能源效率不高的私家车、日常出行距离较远，以及电动车普及速度相对缓慢。图为美国佐治亚州比福德市的一家加油站展示汽油价格。 （路透社）

（华盛顿/休斯顿/科林斯综合电）调查发现，美国消费者因美伊战争推高能源成本所额外支付的汽油开支为全球最高，平均达471美元（约604新元），远高于全球其他国家平均额外支付的60美元。

根据芬兰非营利组织能源与清洁空气研究中心周一（10月26日）发布的调查，美国消费者支付更多，主要因为他们更加依赖能源效率不高的私家车、日常出行距离较远，以及电动车普及速度相对缓慢。

这项调查涵盖全球169国从今年3月至10月中的燃油花费。全球消费者在这段期间因燃油涨价额外支付约4680亿美元，其中美国支出为1600亿美元，中国540亿美元，加拿大170亿美元。

特朗普在2024年竞选总统期间承诺将汽油价格压至每加仑2美元以下，但美国汽车协会的调查发现，自特朗普去年1月再度入主白宫以来，美国人支付的普通汽油零售均价为每加仑3.472美元，高于前总统拜登任内的3.471美元。

俄乌和美伊战争都造成全球原油和燃油供应紧绷。美伊战争2月底爆发以来，美国汽油价格上涨了43%，柴油价格更飙涨近70%，创历史新高，成为共和党中期选举的最大争议点。

美国油价飙升 特朗普拟放宽甲烷排放限制促生产

特朗普周一在密西西比州助选时，承认战争导致油价高涨，但再度称这是阻止伊朗获得核武器须付出的小小代价。他还说原本预期油价会“飙涨得远高于此”，战争“情况进展良好，很快就会结束”。

彭博社引述消息报道，特朗普周二（27日）在得州助选时预计将宣布放宽油气生产过程中温室气体甲烷（methane）的排放限制，以鼓励美国本土扩大能源生产及降低成本。

提出这项建议的环保局也主张取消“甲烷超级排放源计划”，这项机制借助第三方技术快速定位大型甲烷泄漏，并通知油气设施所有者及时修复。

环保局估计这一系列建议可在2027年至2050年期间为美国能源业节省约450亿美元成本，并额外生产约2亿1000万桶原油和1.41万亿立方英尺天然气。

年底假期旺季 邮递公司附加费预计涨近6%

行业数据显示，由于汽油成本高涨，美国零售商和电商在今年第四季假期旺季，须支付邮递公司的附加费预计将比去年高出5.8%，创历来最高。

截至10月19日，美国柴油均价每加仑达6.28美元，自美伊战事以来上涨65%。在这个价格下，主要邮递公司UPS和FedEx征收的汽油附加费分别高达29.5%和29%，美国邮政公司则对多数包裹征收8%附加费，亚马逊也对销售商额外征收3.5%燃油和物流相关附加费。

‘Dark money’ group accused of ‘scheme’ to tip election in favor of Democrats, manipulate GOP voters

‘It really seems the intention is to get Republicans to stay at home,’ Americans for Public Trust’s Caitlin Sutherland tells Fox News Digital

By Elizabeth Elkind
Fox News

Published October 27, 2026 6:00am EDT

FIRST ON FOX:A mysterious new group purporting to be part of an “anti-globalist,” pro-American movement is targeting Republicans in battleground House races across the country in what some are calling a coordinated scheme to suppress GOP votes.

The American Forge Coalition has sent out a flurry of mailers to voters this month accusing vulnerable Republicans of not being conservative enough. Some believe it’s a coordinated effort by the left to depress GOP voter turnout in the midterm election just a week away.

“This is a shady Democrat dark money scheme using a front group that isn’t even registered with the Federal Election Commission, mailing Republicans at the start of early voting to suppress them from turning out,” Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., campaign spokesman Ciro Riccardi told Fox News Digital.

In fact, an investigation by Fox News Digital found that the group’s targets include Lawler’s race in New York’s 17th Congressional District, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Wis., in Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R-Iowa, in Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, and Laurie Buckhout, who is running to unseat Rep. Don Davis, D-N.C., in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District.

TOP ELECTION SCHEMES ROILING KEY MIDTERM RACES AS BOTH PARTIES ACCUSE RIVALS OF TRICKERY

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/capitol-money.jpg

A dark money group is being accused of trying to suppress the GOP vote in the midterm elections.(iStock)

In Lawler’s, Kiggans’ and Fitzpatrick’s cases, the group sent mailers accusing them of supporting “mass amnesty” and “letting criminals escape justice after illegally entering our nation.”

Mailers sent in Van Orden and Buckhout’s races accused them of being too lenient on abortion. Mailers sent in North Carolina claimed Buckhout supports “abortions up until birth,” while Wisconsin voters got flyers that said Van Orden “would allow the murder of the unborn into the second trimester.”

Both attack lines take liberties with the truth.

Lawler, Fitzpatrick and Kiggans all support the Dignity Act, which establishes a pathway to temporary legal status for undocumented migrants provided they pay certain fees and pass a background check, while also increasing pay for Border Patrol. But none support amnesty for illegal immigrants with criminal histories.

In the case of Van Orden and Buckhout, both have positioned themselves as pro-life and have been attacked by Democrats as “anti-abortion.”

‘NO KINGS’ FOOT SOLDIERS IGNORE ORGANIZERS’ WARNING, GO ALL IN FOR DEMOCRATS

“They are obviously a left-wing dark money group. This is unfortunately not a new tactic by them. And they are really hurting our country,” Fitzpatrick’s campaign told Fox News Digital. “They are telling Republicans that we are too independent, and then telling Democrats that we’re not independent enough.”

It is not clear where the American Forge Coalition’s money or support is coming from, and it almost appears deliberately structured to obscure that information.

WHAT STRANGERS CAN LEARN FROM YOUR POLITICAL DONATION

The group is registered as a 501(c)(4) social welfare organization or advocacy group rather than a political action committee (PAC), meaning it does not need to disclose its financial information with the FEC. Groups registered as 501(c)(4) are permitted to advocate for certain issues but barred by law from directly campaigning for a specific candidate in an election.

“There are liberal and conservative groups that have been taking advantage of the Supreme Court Citizens United ruling to spend secret money in our elections,” Money in Politics Reform Director Michael Beckel told Fox News Digital. “When you’ve got a group like the American Forge Coalition popping up, there is a very slim paper trail that somebody can follow to try to make heads or tails of how they are trying to exert influence in election, what special interests or wealthy mega-donors might truly be calling the shots for a group like this.”

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/32eedf82-american-forge-coalition-lawler.jpgImage 1 of 3 next

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/american-forge-coalition-van-orden-1.jpgImage 2 of 3 prev next

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/5a330c7b-american-forge-coalition-kiggans.jpgImage 3 of 3 prev

Fitzpatrick’s campaign said the goal of such groups “is to have a Congress where no more pragmatic, reasonable lawmakers are left.”

Caitlin Sutherland, executive director at Americans for Public Trust, told Fox News Digital, “The funders behind this group are assuredly leaning left. So at the same time that they’re highlighting threats to democracy, they’re actively trying to suppress voters. That does seem to be incredibly hypocritical.”

Records show the group was created in May 2026 and registered in Delaware, a popular tax haven state.

The Wilmington address it’s registered at was highlighted in a 2012 New York Times story because it also happens to be the address of some 285,000 different businesses, from small companies to corporate giants like American Airlines, Google, and JPMorgan Chase.

DNC LAWSUIT ACCUSES TRUMP ADMINISTRATION OF DIVERTING $20M IN FEDERAL FUNDS FOR ‘PROPAGANDA’ ADS

“A lot of organizations on both the left and the right incorporate in Delaware, where the incorporation laws are generally viewed as pretty friendly. So from the business records alone, we know very little about the American Forge Coalition,” Beckel said.

He said it’s very possible the group is being bankrolled by left-wing actors: “This could well be a group masquerading as a conservative entity that is bankrolled by liberal or Democratic-aligned donors, and the public really doesn’t have enough to go on to be able to truly assess who the donors are behind these types of really outrageous attack ads.”

And there is precedent for such moves on both sides.

In 2024, a California-based group linked to former Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., called “True Patriots PA” was accused of trying to sway voters away from Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania toward his more right-wing primary challenger, in what appeared to be a bid to give Democrats an easier time in the general election.

But Sutherland said American Forge Coalition’s campaign stood out against past tactics in that it was not aimed at bolstering other candidates — just kneecapping Republicans.

“We’ve seen it before where these liberal dark money groups pop up late in the cycle, and they try to act as a spoiler,” she said. “I will say what seems unique about this situation is that they’re not trying to promote a third-party candidate, but it really seems the intention is to get Republicans to stay at home. That to me does seem to be a departure this cycle.”

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/brian-fitzpatrick-us-capitol-statuary-hall-fox-news-001.jpg

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., talks with a reporter in the U.S. Capitol’s Statuary Hall on March 27, 2026.(Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc. via Getty Images)

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Fox News Power Rankings project Democrats winning the House majority by 219 seats, compared to 198 seats likely for Republicans, with 18 remaining as toss-ups. Three of the races — Lawler’s, Kiggans’, and Miller-Meeks’ — are projected to be Democratic pickups, while the remainder are toss-ups, meaning the mailers could potentially help edge the majority away from the GOP if successful.

The group’s website does not list any donors or leadership, nor many details at all. The website appears to be an appeal to the populist right, led with the phrase: “WE THE PEOPLE built this country. NOT politicians. NOT foreigners. We’re hammering it back into shape — one job, one neighborhood, one law at a time.” Its platform advocates for tariffs on “cheap imports,” against outsourcing jobs, for building a border wall and deporting “criminals,” and stopping “Washington and the globalists from dictating to working families.”

American Forge Coalition did not respond to a list of questions sent by Fox News Digital.

Elizabeth Elkind is a politics reporter for Fox News Digital leading coverage of the House of Representatives. Previous digital bylines seen at Daily Mail and CBS News.

Follow on Twitter at @liz_elkind and send tips to elizabeth.elkind@fox.com

What exactly Democrats have pledged to do if they win in the midterms

2026-10-27T09:00:15.347Z / CNN

If Democrats can win control of either the House or the Senate, they will have seized some control of Washington back from President Donald Trump and Republicans.

They will have powerful new tools to conduct oversight and investigate Trump’s government; a seat at the table when it comes to government spending; and potentially a mandate to undo some of the changes he has imposed or push for AI regulation he has opposed.

While House Democrats may pass several partisan bills as a show of their priorities, there are limits to what the caucus would actually be able to accomplish. And maintaining unity and resolve would take work, especially since Trump, barred by the Constitution from seeking a third term, might not be willing to work with Democrats to keep the government functioning.

“What happens is I veto everything, and then the Democrats come and they want to make a deal,” Trump said last week of the prospect of working with a Democratic-majority Congress.

Any measures that the Democrats really want to become law would likely have to be part of must-pass legislation, such as the annual appropriations bills. And that would take negotiating with Republicans, at least in the Senate, since the Democrats are not expected to gain enough seats in that chamber to approve bills without GOP votes.

Here’s a look at some of the power Democrats could gain with a House or Senate majority, and what they would be able to do with it.

It was the affordability crisis and inflation that turned voters against President Joe Biden, and it may end up being inflation and affordability that turn voters against Trump. Democrats are promising a new focus on affordability, but there may be little they can do while Trump is president. There’s little chance they could gain the kind of majority that would allow them to overturn his veto. That means effort to pare back Trump’s tariffs or end his war on Iran would require help from Republicans.

The top Democrat in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, has said his party is creating working groups to explore how to bring down prices in five areas: housing, healthcare, caregiving, gas and utilities, and groceries and goods.

Jeffries has cited three immediate goals:

► Ending the war to bring down energy prices.

► Undoing cuts to Medicaid in the Republican tax and spending cuts bill, and renewing Obamacare’s enhanced premium subsidies to address health care costs…

► Repeal Trump’s tariffs to bring down the costs of goods…

But again, those things would require unlikely buy-in from Trump.

Democrats’ main power point would be over the spending of taxpayer dollars, which means their leverage to force Trump to do things would be through the threat of taking away money. Trump will need legislation from Congress in order to keep the government running, although he has already overseen multiple protracted and unpopular lapses in funding during his presidencies.

Republicans sought to inoculate his immigration policy from Democrats by approving funding for the Department of Homeland Security to get through his term. Democrats could try to undo that funding, but they will likely lack votes to override Trump’s veto and they may have little control over how his DHS, flush with funding, goes about its business.

Another expected clash will be over the debt ceiling. Republicans raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion when they passed Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act — yes, the tax cuts bill added a lot of money to the national debt. It’s expected that the debt ceiling will have to be raised again in 2027.

Look for Democrats to use their power over funding to stall or stop Trump’s DC projects, which he argues are necessary to beautify the capital, but which Democrats see as vanity projects. This is probably why Trump’s administration is trying to move quickly on things like the triumphal arch and the championship-level golf course he wants to use taxpayer money to build.

But Democrats also would have to deal with the reality that reversing or modifying some of the sweeping cuts in the “big, beautiful bill” will cost a lot of money, a daunting hurdle even for many in the caucus at a time when the national debt has topped $40 trillion.

Continuing the enhanced premium subsidies to Affordable Care Act enrollees has been a top priority for Democrats for the past two years. They shut down the government for a record 43 days last fall in an effort to pressure GOP leaders to extend the more generous assistance, which lapsed at the end of 2025.

The enhanced subsidies’ expiration sent premium payments soaring 58% this year, and several million people have dropped their coverage.

But the cost alone would be daunting — a permanent extension could cost $350 billion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

As for reversing the historic Medicaid cuts in the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Democrats would have to decide which of the multiple measures to target. The first-ever federal work requirement is expected to lead to the largest loss of coverage, but it would be a big lift to remove the mandate, which is set to kick in on January 1 in most states. Democrats might seek to delay or soften some of the provisions in the law and regulations, such as those related to self-attestation, medical frailty and provider taxes.

That’s not to say that Democrats would just sit back as the Medicaid cuts take effect. They are expected to actively monitor the rollout of the provisions and publicize their impact on enrollees and other Americans, hospitals, and states, among others.

It’s also likely that they would push the Trump administration for more details on its “Most Favored Nation” deals with drugmakers. Trump would like them codified into law, but there are a lot of questions about the details of the agreements and whether they have actually driven down costs for patients.

While several progressive Democratic candidates have pushed for Medicare for All on the campaign trail, don’t expect the caucus to move forward on an expansion of Medicare to more Americans in the coming Congress.

Oversight is likely to be one of the most immediate and visible consequences of any Democratic takeover of either the House or the Senate. With the majority comes the power to call hearings and subpoena witnesses.

Expect Democrats to launch inquiries into Elon Musk, for starters. Many questions remain about the so-called Department of Government Efficiency he launched with Trump’s blessing. Contracts awarded to Musk’s companies could also be scrutinized.

Trump’s efforts to effectively shut down agencies created by Congress like USAID, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Department of Education will likely get their first real scrutiny by lawmakers.

So will the actions of Trump’s children to make money during their father’s presidency. Trump has made more than $1 billion on crypto at a time when he could be overseeing its regulation.

His most controversial policies, like the Iran war, mass deportation and tariffs, will be put under the microscope.

Cabinet members like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin and Attorney General Todd Blanche will also need to make more time on their calendars for public hearings and their agencies will face more scrutiny from congressional committees.

There will be bipartisan support for ending the war, but forcing Trump to abandon the project will be complicated. The War Powers Act seemingly requires congressional approval for prolonged military action, but Trump has found ways around those provisions. Plus, it would take 67 votes — which would mean help from Republicans — to override Trump’s veto. Republicans will be under immense pressure to pass a massive war funding bill in the lame duck period after the election but before new lawmakers take office in January. But the question of Pentagon funding and whether spending bills can be used to control war policy will become a major issue. If the war continues to be unpopular, pressure from Congress and the public will be hard for Trump to continue to ignore.

In an effort to blunt the Republicans’ historic cuts to food stamps, Democrats are expected to target a provision of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that will require states to shoulder a portion of the benefit costs if they have high rates of payment errors. Currently, the federal government covers the entire tab, but that will change next October for many states.

Democrats have already been pushing for a two-year delay to this measure as part of the Farm Bill. The Senate Agriculture Committee has passed a one-year delay but included an increase in the penalty rate for states with the highest error rate, which Democrats oppose. It’s unclear whether the Farm Bill will become law before this Congress’ term ends at the end of December.

The error rate provision has prompted some states to tighten their application and renewal processes and to add more paperwork requirements. That has contributed to more than 5.5 million people losing benefits since Trump signed the bill into law in July 2025, according to the Food Research & Action Center.

Still, the measure could take a big bite out of state budgets next year at a time when many aren’t flush with funds. That could prompt states to take even more drastic actions, which could lead to more coverage losses.

Democrats will seek to draw a contrast between themselves and Republicans, who reduced the amount of federal loansgraduate students and parents can take out and made student loan repayment plans less generous for many borrowers, said Jon Fansmith, senior vice president for government relations at the American Council on Education.

That might include forcing congressional Republicans to take tough votes to keep the stricter rules or requiring Trump to veto the package.

Meanwhile, they may try to address a controversial Department of Education rule that subjects nurses, physician assistants, physical therapists and certain other healthcare professionals to lower loan limits than doctors. There may be bipartisan support to change that rule, considering the shortage of healthcare professionals in the US.

Democrats could also hold oversight hearings on the Trump administration’s efforts to dismantle the Department of Education and shift its responsibilities to other agencies. They would likely look into whether these moves are helping or hurting students and their educations.

Social Security and Medicare

Don’t expect Democrats to advance any serious measures in the next year to address the looming insolvency of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, which are projected to be drained in the early 2030s. Neither party is expected to tackle this complex and sensitive issue until closer to the deadline.

Democrats may float bills that seek to shore up the programs’ fiscal health to make it clear what their fixes would entail. They generally support lifting the income threshold on Social Security payroll taxes that would subject more of higher earners’ pay to the levy. Some would also expand benefits, such as making the annual cost-of-living adjustment more generous or increasing the minimum monthly payment.

Addressing Medicare’s financial problems will be more complicated. Democrats have supported expanding benefits, such as adding dental, vision and hearing coverage. They have also looked at ways to save the program money, such as rein in reimbursements for Medicare Advantage insurers — though not all of those would help the Medicare Part A trust fund.

Jeffries came under some scrutiny from Democrats when he met this year with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner about areas where the two sides could work together. The two talked about housing and criminal justice reform. Housing in particular could be an area where Democrats and Republicans negotiate.

Trump himself has also talked with Democratic New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani about housing and infrastructure projects. During his first term, Trump’s major bipartisan achievement was passing the First Step Act, an effort that brought together Democrats and Republicans in the months after voters gave control of the House back to Democrats during Trump’s first term midterm election.

消息：美军最快96小时内对伊朗发动大规模打击

2026年10月27日 19:41

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/7298841d4791a90cca4dfe0100e3aff342097d5aaf8ca5a2762ad35ef51f0b5c

伊朗、沙特阿拉伯、土耳其和巴基斯坦周一（10月26日）在伊朗首都德黑兰举行地区安全会议。图为伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬（左二）在德黑兰与巴基斯坦陆军参谋长穆尼尔（右一）握手。在他们身旁的是土耳其国家情报局局长卡林（左一）和沙特国防部长哈立德（右二）。 （新华社）

（华盛顿/德黑兰综合电）美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）周一（10月26日）引述两名美国官员的消息报道，驻中东美军已做好准备，可在收到总统特朗普命令后的96小时内，对伊朗发动大规模打击行动。

消息指出，目前美军已有足够军力展开新的军事打击。新一轮行动的范围很可能不再局限于攻击伊朗雷达、发射装置和其他可迅速重建的资产，而是扩大至更大规模的打击行动。

不过，美国官员承认面临挑战，因为伊朗军队如今更熟悉美军战术，因此美军要有效摧毁潜在目标将更加困难。

据知，美军中央司令部和五角大楼的高官正在制定一份范围广泛的目标清单，包括伊朗的能源基础设施、军事设施以及核设施。

官员们指出，特朗普尚未决定在中期选举后要采取哪种行动，但他似乎倾向于展开重大打击。不过，官员们也说，特朗普过去曾多次在最后一刻改变主意，因此一切有待观望。

消息人士透露，美国近期的情报评估显示，伊朗和胡塞武装组织非常认真看待美国与以色列再次发动袭击的可能性，一旦遭到袭击，伊朗和胡塞武装会立即反击，将目标对准在中东及更广范围的美国人员与设施。

沙特土耳其巴基斯坦高官访伊 缓和局势避免战火重燃

伊朗高层周一与到访的《麦加共同防务协议》（Mecca Pact）三个成员国沙特阿拉伯、土耳其和巴基斯坦的高官举行会谈。三国官员此行是试图缓和局势，力求避免战火重燃。

访问德黑兰的是沙特国防部长哈立德、巴基斯坦陆军参谋长穆尼尔和土耳其国家情报局局长卡林。

沙特外交部发声明说，这次会谈是寻求为当前危机降级。不过，各方在会谈后并未发表任何具体声明，只同意接下来继续会谈。

这是三个成员国今年8月组成防务协议以来，首次一起造访德黑兰。三国的官员会见了伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬、外长阿拉格齐和最高国家安全委员会秘书雷扎伊。

伊朗官方电视台周一报道，雷扎伊说，这次在德黑兰的会谈进展顺利，并说：“我感觉这个地区正在形成一种新的氛围……我从这次会谈的讨论中，感受到一种非常积极的氛围”。

他指出，伊朗与三国官员一致认为，中东的安全应由地区各国自行实现，而且必须防止任何形式的外国干预。

埃及总统塞西周一获得国会授权，一旦沙特提出要求，可采取任何必要措施协助沙特进行防卫。

塞西此前请求议会批准，若沙特提出协助打击胡塞武装的请求，埃及将提供军事支持。根据议会发布的一份官方声明，这项决议获得议会超过三分之二国会议员的支持。

伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装周二（27日）继续袭击沙特，向东部地区发射三枚弹道导弹，以及向南部地区发射四架无人机。

以沙特为首的联军同天说，他们已经拦截并摧毁来犯的导弹与无人机。

消息：美军最快96小时内对伊朗发动大规模打击

发布/2026年10月27日 19:41

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/7298841d4791a90cca4dfe0100e3aff342097d5aaf8ca5a2762ad35ef51f0b5c

伊朗、沙特阿拉伯、土耳其和巴基斯坦周一（10月26日）在伊朗首都德黑兰举行地区安全会议。图为伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬（左二）在德黑兰与巴基斯坦陆军参谋长穆尼尔（右一）握手。在他们身旁的是土耳其国家情报局局长卡林（左一）和沙特国防部长哈立德（右二）。 （新华社）

（华盛顿/德黑兰综合电）美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）周一（10月26日）引述两名美国官员的消息报道，驻中东美军已做好准备，可在收到总统特朗普命令后的96小时内，对伊朗发动大规模打击行动。

消息指出，目前美军已有足够军力展开新的军事打击。新一轮行动的范围很可能不再局限于攻击伊朗雷达、发射装置和其他可迅速重建的资产，而是扩大至更大规模的打击行动。

不过，美国官员承认面临挑战，因为伊朗军队如今更熟悉美军战术，因此美军要有效摧毁潜在目标将更加困难。

据知，美军中央司令部和五角大楼的高官正在制定一份范围广泛的目标清单，包括伊朗的能源基础设施、军事设施以及核设施。

官员们指出，特朗普尚未决定在中期选举后要采取哪种行动，但他似乎倾向于展开重大打击。不过，官员们也说，特朗普过去曾多次在最后一刻改变主意，因此一切有待观望。

消息人士透露，美国近期的情报评估显示，伊朗和胡塞武装组织非常认真看待美国与以色列再次发动袭击的可能性，一旦遭到袭击，伊朗和胡塞武装会立即反击，将目标对准在中东及更广范围的美国人员与设施。

沙特土耳其巴基斯坦高官访伊 缓和局势避免战火重燃

伊朗高层周一与到访的《麦加共同防务协议》（Mecca Pact）三个成员国沙特阿拉伯、土耳其和巴基斯坦的高官举行会谈。三国官员此行是试图缓和局势，力求避免战火重燃。

访问德黑兰的是沙特国防部长哈立德、巴基斯坦陆军参谋长穆尼尔和土耳其国家情报局局长卡林。

沙特外交部发声明说，这次会谈是寻求为当前危机降级。不过，各方在会谈后并未发表任何具体声明，只同意接下来继续会谈。

这是三个成员国今年8月组成防务协议以来，首次一起造访德黑兰。三国的官员会见了伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬、外长阿拉格齐和最高国家安全委员会秘书雷扎伊。

伊朗官方电视台周一报道，雷扎伊说，这次在德黑兰的会谈进展顺利，并说：“我感觉这个地区正在形成一种新的氛围……我从这次会谈的讨论中，感受到一种非常积极的氛围”。

他指出，伊朗与三国官员一致认为，中东的安全应由地区各国自行实现，而且必须防止任何形式的外国干预。

埃及总统塞西周一获得国会授权，一旦沙特提出要求，可采取任何必要措施协助沙特进行防卫。

塞西此前请求议会批准，若沙特提出协助打击胡塞武装的请求，埃及将提供军事支持。根据议会发布的一份官方声明，这项决议获得议会超过三分之二国会议员的支持。

伊朗支持的也门胡塞武装周二（27日）继续袭击沙特，向东部地区发射三枚弹道导弹，以及向南部地区发射四架无人机。

以沙特为首的联军同天说，他们已经拦截并摧毁来犯的导弹与无人机。

The midterms look good for Democrats — but it’s too early to call a blue wave

2026-10-27T04:01:15.031Z / CNN

The United States may be within a week of momentous political change in midterm elections that could destroy the Republican Party’s monopoly on Washington and hand Democrats power to check President Donald Trump.

But take a beat.

It’s far too early to size up any Democratic wave. There’s no guarantee there’ll even be one in an election season characterized by political volatility, redrawn districts, a gusher of outside cash — including hundreds of millions of dollars of GOP funding from Elon Musk — and ambiguity over who will turn up to vote.

Pundits may be increasingly bullish that Democrats will give Republicans a shellacking.

But at this point, what is the purpose of speculating?

More than 31 million early votes are already banked. And after years of apprehension over American democracy, voters will take part in a noble biennial ritual next Tuesday to deliver the only verdict that matters.

Still, almost everyone involved in politics expects Democrats to erase the Republican majority and win back the House, in a classic rebuke to a sitting president who seems to have forgotten he promised to cut the cost of living on the 2024 campaign trail.

But given Trump’s past triumphs, Democrats would be foolish to take a big night for granted. And the wrinkles of the US political system mean that polls showing a wide Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot might translate into a more equivocal result than expected.

The 10 or so races that will meanwhile decide the Senate’s destiny are mostly neck-and-neck. This means Democrats could run close in all of them but still miss most of their targets. Disengaged GOP voters might also respond to Trump’s appeals for one last rodeo and turn out in higher-than-expected numbers.

And Democrats are trying to do something spectacular and rare on what was long considered a prohibitive Senate map this cycle. They need an unlikely winning streak through solid GOP territory to find the net gain of four seats needed for the majority.

But there are certain signs that may bode ill for the GOP.

Many Republican lawmakers suddenly find themselves in closer races than they expected. And Trump’s campaign blitz is mostly focused on red America as he tries to rescue them. On Monday, for example, he held a rally in Mississippi, where he won by 23 points two years ago. Now, incumbent Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is facing an unexpectedly strong Democratic challenge.

“You know, I’m here because Cindy’s doing great, but I just got to make sure. I can’t take a chance,” Trump said.

None of this proves that Democrats are poised for a victory lap. But it explains why Republicans, with one week to go, seem to be building a last line of defense.

The administration also seems to be preparing contingency plans. Its preemptive legal maneuvers in Alaska and California could foreshadow possible voting challenges. And they recall the president’s previous bid, in 2020, to deny voters’ right to choose their leaders after an election he lost.

There is one, however, undeniable indicator amid all the uncertainty: The gruesome political environment for Republicans only two years after Trump’s stunning comeback is not abating. If anything, it’s worsening by the day.

Voters are desperate for relief from high prices for groceries, gasoline and housing and still haven’t got the answers Trump promised in 2024. And with his war in Iran and his tariffs, the president seems to have handed voters a tangible demonstration that his decisions are making the cost of living crisis worse.

His bizarre antics are hardly helping. If an unpopular president had set out to design a strategy to hurt his own side, it might look little different from Trump’s approach. The billionaire in chief keeps insisting that the country is basking in a historic economic golden age. With gasoline averaging more than $4 a gallon, he celebrated oil company profits on Sunday.

And instead of empathizing with tight family budgets, he waxes on about trivialities at his increasingly out-of-touch rallies — like his new obsession with the rear ends of Ohio Sen. Jon Husted and rapper Nicki Minaj.

Election forecasters are almost universally predicting that Democrats will take the House of Representatives, despite polls showing they’ve yet to win back public trust. That would mean an onslaught of investigation against Trump and senior administration figures — and almost certainly two years of performative showdowns and legislative gridlock in Washington.

Hakeem Jeffries, the probable speaker in any Democratic majority, was sufficiently confident last week to tell CNN’s Manu Raju that his party is “very likely” to regain control, saying that the “environment is clearly on our side.” Indeed, it would be a stunning surprise and a departure from history if the GOP clings on to a majority that has barely functioned in recent months. Incumbent presidents almost always get a bloody nose in midterm elections, and Trump’s approval ratings are particularly low.

Still, even as Democrats target more Republican seats, years of gerrymandering and the uncertainties introduced by Trump’s redistricting campaign this year mean that of the House’s 435 seats, perhaps only four dozen or so are considered truly competitive, even with a political storm lining up for the GOP.

So Democrats could pile up millions more votes but only win by a few seats.

The Senate is a toss-up.

Insiders in both parties think North Carolina may already effectively be in the Democratic column. And former Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is well-positioned to return to Washington. If networks make an early call for Democrats in a state where Trump romped home by 11 points two years ago, the rout could become reality.

Democrats also think they can unseat Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan. But then the road to a majority quickly gets bumpy. Republican Sen. Susan Collins, for instance, is threatening another act of political escapology in Maine.

And it’s measure of an extraordinary political year and the mountain that Democrats must climb that a CNN analysis last week deemed Texas — which last elected a Democratic senator in 1988 — the fifth most likely seat to change hands. Democratic nominee James Talarico has emerged as a rare political talent, and Trump did him a favor by muscling scandal-plagued state Attorney General Ken Paxton through the Republican primary. But the mirage of a statewide Democratic victory in the Lone Star sate has shimmered before. No one will believe it until it happens.

A true blue wave might bring Trump-country seats in Kansas and Iowa within reach for Democrats. And even in South Carolina, Sen. Darline Graham can’t be certain of keeping the seat she inherited from late brother Lindsey Graham.

But Democrats have their own worries. Their Senate dreams may be dashed if Michigan nominee Abdul El-Sayed fails to win a margin-of-error race to retain retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ seat in a contest that is testing the progressive movement’s potential in a purple state.

All year, there have been signs that Trump’s 2024 is coalition is splintering. Multiple polls show he’s alienated Latino voters, who helped put him back in the White House, with high prices and a ferocious immigration purge. Polls now show that Democrats have reversed Trump’s gains among younger voters two years ago.

The limited insight that can be gained from early voting statistics also looks favorable for Democrats. The party’s voters seem more enthusiastic than their GOP counterparts in Texas, for example. CNN reported Tuesday that returns suggest turnout among the youngest Republican voters in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina is well behind 2024. In several key states, Democrats make up a larger share of early voters than at the this point two years ago. All this is encouraging for the party. But Democrats could still fall short of Election Day expectations.

Conservative media is clinging to the hope that polls are underestimating Republican turnout, as has been the case several times in the Trump era. The president is beseeching GOP voters to pretend he’s on the ballot — even though Democrats also want a referendum on an unpopular president.

There’s one other possibility: that this time, pollsters might have failed to fully capture Democratic turnout. That’s how a potential narrow win could become a landslide.

Trump has always been a singular political figure. But if his unorthodox midterm strategy saves his party, he’ll have busted expectations yet again.

The president’s repeated attempts to spring an October surprise, however, seem to be failing. There’s no sign that his promise of $5,000 for every American adult if the GOP wins is changing the race — or that voters take it that seriously. His sanctions-busting diesel deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin put the US on the side of a ruthless tyrant with Ukraine’s blood on his hands, and may have done more political harm than good.

And the president has dived into the deepest gutter in politics by warning that El-Sayed, a Muslim, supports “terrorists” and would need to “go through a metal detector before he’s allowed to go into the Senate.” The president also backed an ad put out by Ohio gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy that cast doubt on alleged childhood abuse suffered by his opponent, Amy Acton.

In 2016, this kind of searing MAGA rhetoric helped Trump to shatter the playbook. But Trump has always been more effective in elections as an insurgent planning a shakeup than an incumbent judged on his record.

Now, he just seems oblivious to the nation’s sour mood.

Most people think they know what’s going to happen.

But until next week, no one can know for sure.

日本驻俄使馆首次探视涉间谍案被捕记者

发布/2026年10月27日 12:57

https://news-multimedia-1393112320.cos.ap-guangzhou.myqcloud.com/8741767df4c8c491780c317fcb980ce13c11ffa5d2cf6cedefda0f853b9ba042

俄罗斯当局日前称，在远东萨哈林岛逮捕《北海道新闻》记者今井祐纪（音译，Yuki Imai），指他涉嫌从事间谍活动。 （法新社）

日本政府说，日本官员首次获准探视日前因涉嫌间谍活动遭俄方拘捕的日本记者，并再次要求俄罗斯立即释放这名记者。

法新社报道，日本外交部星期一（10月26日）晚发表声明说，日本驻俄使馆官员已与被拘留的这名记者进行领事会面，确认他目前健康状况良好。

俄罗斯当局此前宣布，在远东萨哈林岛逮捕《北海道新闻》记者今井祐纪（音译，Yuki Imai），指他涉嫌从事间谍活动。

日本外交部在声明中强调，日本政府强烈敦促俄罗斯立即释放这名日本公民，并给予人道待遇及公平、公正的对待。

俄罗斯也指责日本广泛利用记者从事间谍活动，但日本首相高市早苗否认有关指控。《北海道新闻》则强调，报社独立于日本政府运作。

日俄关系近年来持续紧张。两国长期就日本东北部外海、萨哈林岛西南方的岛屿主权存在争议。俄罗斯2022年入侵乌克兰后，日本也对俄实施制裁。

近年来，俄罗斯也多次拘留被它列为“不友好国家”的外国公民，指控他们为西方情报机构工作。