2026-10-27T09:00:15.347Z / 有线电视新闻网(CNN)
如果民主党能赢得众议院或参议院的控制权,他们将从唐纳德·特朗普总统和共和党手中夺回华盛顿的部分控制权。
他们将拥有强大的新工具来监督和调查特朗普政府;在政府开支问题上拥有话语权;并可能获得授权,推翻他推行的某些政策变动,或推动他反对的人工智能监管。
虽然众议院民主党人可能会通过几项有党派倾向的法案来彰显他们的优先事项,但该党团实际能取得的成就存在限制。维持团结和决心需要付出努力,尤其是考虑到宪法禁止特朗普寻求第三任期,他可能不愿意与民主党合作以维持政府运转。
“实际情况是我会否决所有法案,然后民主党人会来想要达成协议,”特朗普上周在谈到与占多数的民主党国会合作的前景时说道。
民主党人真正希望成为法律的任何措施,可能都必须纳入必须通过的立法中,比如年度拨款法案。而且这需要与共和党进行谈判,至少在参议院是如此,因为预计民主党无法在参议院获得足够多的席位,以在没有共和党票的情况下通过法案。
以下是民主党在赢得众议院或参议院多数席位后可能获得的部分权力,以及他们将如何运用这些权力的分析。
是可负担性危机和通货膨胀让选民不再支持乔·拜登总统,而最终也可能是通货膨胀和可负担性问题让选民不再支持特朗普。民主党承诺将重新重点关注可负担性,但在特朗普担任总统期间,他们可能能做的事情很少。他们几乎没有机会获得足以推翻特朗普否决权的多数席位。这意味着要削减特朗普的关税或终止他对伊朗的战争,将需要共和党人的帮助。
众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯表示,他的政党正在组建工作组,探索如何在五个领域降低价格:住房、医疗保健、护理服务、天然气和公用事业、食品杂货和商品。
杰弗里斯列出了三个近期目标:
► 结束战争,降低能源价格。
► 推翻共和党减税和支出法案中对医疗补助的削减,并更新奥巴马医改的强化保费补贴,以解决医疗保健成本问题……
► 废除特朗普的关税,降低商品价格……
但同样,这些举措需要特朗普极不可能同意的支持。
民主党人的主要权力在于纳税人资金的支出,这意味着他们迫使特朗普采取行动的手段是威胁削减资金。特朗普需要国会通过立法来维持政府运转,尽管他在担任总统期间已经多次导致资金长时间停摆,且不受公众欢迎。
共和党人通过批准国土安全部的拨款以撑过特朗普任期,试图让其移民政策免受民主党干预。民主党人可能会试图削减这笔拨款,但他们可能缺乏票数来推翻特朗普的否决,而且他们对于资金充足的国土安全部如何运作可能几乎没有控制权。
另一个预计会出现的冲突将是债务上限问题。共和党人在通过特朗普的《一项伟大美丽法案》时,将债务上限提高了5万亿美元——没错,就是这项减税法案让国家债务大幅增加。预计到2027年债务上限将需要再次提高。
可以预见,民主党会利用其对资金的控制权来拖延或阻止特朗普的华盛顿项目,特朗普声称这些项目对美化首都至关重要,但民主党将其视为面子工程。这可能就是为什么特朗普政府正试图快速推进这些项目,比如他想动用纳税人资金建造凯旋门和锦标赛级高尔夫球场。
但民主党人也必须面对一个现实:推翻或修改《伟大美丽法案》中的大幅削减措施将耗费大量资金,即使对该党团中的许多人来说,这也是一项艰巨的挑战,尤其是在国家债务已超过40万亿美元之际。
在过去两年里,延续《平价医疗法案》参保者的强化保费补贴一直是民主党的优先事项。去年秋天,他们曾创下纪录性地关闭政府43天,以施压共和党领袖延长在2025年底到期的更慷慨援助。
强化补贴的到期导致今年保费飙升了58%,数百万人因此放弃了医保。
但仅成本就令人却步——根据国会预算办公室的数据,永久延续这项补贴在十年内可能耗资3500亿美元。
至于推翻共和党《伟大美丽法案》中历史性的医疗补助削减措施,民主党人必须决定针对哪项措施。史上首个联邦工作要求预计将导致最大规模的医保流失,但要推翻这项将于1月1日在大多数州生效的强制规定将十分困难。民主党人可能会寻求推迟或削弱法律和法规中的某些条款,比如与自我证明、医疗脆弱性和提供者税收相关的条款。
这并非意味着民主党会在医疗补助削减生效时坐视不管。预计他们会积极监督这些条款的实施,并公开其对参保者及其他美国民众、医院和各州等方面的影响。
他们也很可能会向特朗普政府施压,要求披露与制药商的“最惠国”交易的更多细节。特朗普希望将这些协议纳入法律,但关于协议的具体内容以及它们是否真正降低了患者成本仍存在诸多疑问。
虽然几位进步派民主党候选人在竞选期间推动“全民 Medicare”(全民医保),但不要指望该党团会在新一届国会中推进将 Medicare 扩展至更多美国人的计划。
监督工作可能是民主党掌控众议院或参议院后最直接、最明显的结果之一。多数席位带来的权力包括召开听证会和传唤证人。
预计民主党首先会对埃隆·马斯克展开调查。对于他在特朗普支持下成立的所谓“政府效率部”,仍有许多疑问。授予马斯克旗下公司的合同也可能受到审查。
特朗普试图实际上解散国会设立的机构,如美国国际开发署、消费者金融保护局和教育部,可能会首次面临议员的真正审查。
特朗普子女在其父亲任职总统期间赚钱的行为也会受到审查。特朗普在可能监管加密货币的同时,已通过加密货币获利超过10亿美元。
他最具争议的政策,如伊朗战争、大规模驱逐和关税,将受到仔细审视。
国防部长皮特·赫格塞思、商务部长霍华德·卢尼克、内政部长道格·伯古姆、国土安全部部长马克韦恩·马林和司法部长托德·布兰奇等内阁成员,也需要在日程中留出更多时间参加公开听证会,他们的部门将面临国会委员会更严格的审查。
结束这场战争会有跨党派支持,但迫使特朗普放弃这一计划将十分复杂。《战争权力法》似乎要求国会批准长期军事行动,但特朗普找到了绕过这些条款的方法。此外,需要67票——这意味着需要共和党人的帮助——才能推翻特朗普的否决权。选举后、新议员1月就职前的“跛脚鸭”国会期间,共和党将面临通过大规模战争资金法案的巨大压力。但五角大楼资金问题,以及能否用支出法案控制战争政策,将成为重大议题。如果战争继续不受欢迎,国会和公众的压力将成为特朗普难以继续忽视的因素。
为了削弱共和党对食品券的历史性削减,民主党预计将针对《伟大美丽法案》中的一项条款,该条款要求各州在付款错误率高的情况下承担部分福利成本。目前,联邦政府承担全部费用,但明年10月对许多州来说将有所改变。
民主党人已在农场法案中推动将这项措施推迟两年。参议院农业委员会已通过推迟一年的提案,但将错误率最高的州的罚款率提高,而这遭到了民主党的反对。目前尚不清楚农场法案能否在本届国会12月底任期结束前成为法律。
据食品研究与行动中心统计,这项错误率条款促使一些州收紧申请和续期流程,并增加了更多文书要求,这导致自特朗普2025年7月签署该法案以来,已有超过550万人失去福利。
尽管如此,这项措施可能会在明年大幅削减州预算,而许多州的资金并不充裕。这可能会促使各州采取更激进的行动,进而导致更多人失去福利。
美国教育委员会政府事务高级副总裁乔恩·范斯密斯表示,民主党将寻求与共和党形成对比,共和党减少了研究生和家长可获得的联邦贷款额度,并降低了对许多借款人的学生贷款还款计划的慷慨度。
这可能包括迫使国会共和党人就保留更严格的规则进行艰难投票,或要求特朗普否决该法案。
与此同时,他们可能会试图解决教育部一项有争议的规定,该规定要求护士、医师助理、物理治疗师和其他某些医疗专业人员适用比医生更低的贷款额度。考虑到美国医疗专业人员短缺的问题,可能会有跨党派支持来修改这项规定。
民主党人还可能就特朗普政府解散教育部并将其职责转移给其他机构的努力举行监督听证会。他们可能会调查这些举措对学生及其教育的利弊影响。
社会保障和医疗保险
不要指望民主党会在明年推进任何严肃措施来解决社会保障和医疗保险信托基金即将到来的偿付能力问题,据预计,这些基金将在21世纪30年代初耗尽。预计两党都不会在临近最后期限之前处理这个复杂且敏感的问题。
民主党人可能会提出旨在巩固这些项目财政健康的法案,以明确其修复方案。他们普遍支持提高社会保障工资税的收入门槛,让高收入者的更多收入纳入征税范围。一些民主党人还希望扩大福利,比如让年度生活成本调整更慷慨,或提高最低月支付额。
解决医疗保险的财务问题将更为复杂。民主党人支持扩大福利,比如增加牙科、视力和听力覆盖范围。他们还研究了为该项目省钱的方法,比如限制联邦医疗保险优势计划的报销——不过并非所有这些举措都能帮助联邦医疗保险A部分信托基金。
今年,杰弗里斯在与特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳会面探讨双方合作领域时,受到了一些民主党人的审视。两人讨论了住房和刑事司法改革,住房可能成为两党谈判的领域。
特朗普本人也与纽约民主党市长佐兰·马姆达尼讨论过住房和基础设施项目。在特朗普的第一个任期内,他的主要跨党派成就是通过了《第一步法案》,这项努力是在特朗普第一个任期中期选举选民将众议院控制权交还给民主党后,由两党共同推进的。
What exactly Democrats have pledged to do if they win in the midterms
2026-10-27T09:00:15.347Z / CNN
If Democrats can win control of either the House or the Senate, they will have seized some control of Washington back from President Donald Trump and Republicans.
They will have powerful new tools to conduct oversight and investigate Trump’s government; a seat at the table when it comes to government spending; and potentially a mandate to undo some of the changes he has imposed or push for AI regulation he has opposed.
While House Democrats may pass several partisan bills as a show of their priorities, there are limits to what the caucus would actually be able to accomplish. And maintaining unity and resolve would take work, especially since Trump, barred by the Constitution from seeking a third term, might not be willing to work with Democrats to keep the government functioning.
“What happens is I veto everything, and then the Democrats come and they want to make a deal,” Trump said last week of the prospect of working with a Democratic-majority Congress.
Any measures that the Democrats really want to become law would likely have to be part of must-pass legislation, such as the annual appropriations bills. And that would take negotiating with Republicans, at least in the Senate, since the Democrats are not expected to gain enough seats in that chamber to approve bills without GOP votes.
Here’s a look at some of the power Democrats could gain with a House or Senate majority, and what they would be able to do with it.
It was the affordability crisis and inflation that turned voters against President Joe Biden, and it may end up being inflation and affordability that turn voters against Trump. Democrats are promising a new focus on affordability, but there may be little they can do while Trump is president. There’s little chance they could gain the kind of majority that would allow them to overturn his veto. That means effort to pare back Trump’s tariffs or end his war on Iran would require help from Republicans.
The top Democrat in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, has said his party is creating working groups to explore how to bring down prices in five areas: housing, healthcare, caregiving, gas and utilities, and groceries and goods.
Jeffries has cited three immediate goals:
► Ending the war to bring down energy prices.
► Undoing cuts to Medicaid in the Republican tax and spending cuts bill, and renewing Obamacare’s enhanced premium subsidies to address health care costs…
► Repeal Trump’s tariffs to bring down the costs of goods…
But again, those things would require unlikely buy-in from Trump.
Democrats’ main power point would be over the spending of taxpayer dollars, which means their leverage to force Trump to do things would be through the threat of taking away money. Trump will need legislation from Congress in order to keep the government running, although he has already overseen multiple protracted and unpopular lapses in funding during his presidencies.
Republicans sought to inoculate his immigration policy from Democrats by approving funding for the Department of Homeland Security to get through his term. Democrats could try to undo that funding, but they will likely lack votes to override Trump’s veto and they may have little control over how his DHS, flush with funding, goes about its business.
Another expected clash will be over the debt ceiling. Republicans raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion when they passed Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act — yes, the tax cuts bill added a lot of money to the national debt. It’s expected that the debt ceiling will have to be raised again in 2027.
Look for Democrats to use their power over funding to stall or stop Trump’s DC projects, which he argues are necessary to beautify the capital, but which Democrats see as vanity projects. This is probably why Trump’s administration is trying to move quickly on things like the triumphal arch and the championship-level golf course he wants to use taxpayer money to build.
But Democrats also would have to deal with the reality that reversing or modifying some of the sweeping cuts in the “big, beautiful bill” will cost a lot of money, a daunting hurdle even for many in the caucus at a time when the national debt has topped $40 trillion.
Continuing the enhanced premium subsidies to Affordable Care Act enrollees has been a top priority for Democrats for the past two years. They shut down the government for a record 43 days last fall in an effort to pressure GOP leaders to extend the more generous assistance, which lapsed at the end of 2025.
The enhanced subsidies’ expiration sent premium payments soaring 58% this year, and several million people have dropped their coverage.
But the cost alone would be daunting — a permanent extension could cost $350 billion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
As for reversing the historic Medicaid cuts in the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Democrats would have to decide which of the multiple measures to target. The first-ever federal work requirement is expected to lead to the largest loss of coverage, but it would be a big lift to remove the mandate, which is set to kick in on January 1 in most states. Democrats might seek to delay or soften some of the provisions in the law and regulations, such as those related to self-attestation, medical frailty and provider taxes.
That’s not to say that Democrats would just sit back as the Medicaid cuts take effect. They are expected to actively monitor the rollout of the provisions and publicize their impact on enrollees and other Americans, hospitals, and states, among others.
It’s also likely that they would push the Trump administration for more details on its “Most Favored Nation” deals with drugmakers. Trump would like them codified into law, but there are a lot of questions about the details of the agreements and whether they have actually driven down costs for patients.
While several progressive Democratic candidates have pushed for Medicare for All on the campaign trail, don’t expect the caucus to move forward on an expansion of Medicare to more Americans in the coming Congress.
Oversight is likely to be one of the most immediate and visible consequences of any Democratic takeover of either the House or the Senate. With the majority comes the power to call hearings and subpoena witnesses.
Expect Democrats to launch inquiries into Elon Musk, for starters. Many questions remain about the so-called Department of Government Efficiency he launched with Trump’s blessing. Contracts awarded to Musk’s companies could also be scrutinized.
Trump’s efforts to effectively shut down agencies created by Congress like USAID, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Department of Education will likely get their first real scrutiny by lawmakers.
So will the actions of Trump’s children to make money during their father’s presidency. Trump has made more than $1 billion on crypto at a time when he could be overseeing its regulation.
His most controversial policies, like the Iran war, mass deportation and tariffs, will be put under the microscope.
Cabinet members like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin and Attorney General Todd Blanche will also need to make more time on their calendars for public hearings and their agencies will face more scrutiny from congressional committees.
There will be bipartisan support for ending the war, but forcing Trump to abandon the project will be complicated. The War Powers Act seemingly requires congressional approval for prolonged military action, but Trump has found ways around those provisions. Plus, it would take 67 votes — which would mean help from Republicans — to override Trump’s veto. Republicans will be under immense pressure to pass a massive war funding bill in the lame duck period after the election but before new lawmakers take office in January. But the question of Pentagon funding and whether spending bills can be used to control war policy will become a major issue. If the war continues to be unpopular, pressure from Congress and the public will be hard for Trump to continue to ignore.
In an effort to blunt the Republicans’ historic cuts to food stamps, Democrats are expected to target a provision of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that will require states to shoulder a portion of the benefit costs if they have high rates of payment errors. Currently, the federal government covers the entire tab, but that will change next October for many states.
Democrats have already been pushing for a two-year delay to this measure as part of the Farm Bill. The Senate Agriculture Committee has passed a one-year delay but included an increase in the penalty rate for states with the highest error rate, which Democrats oppose. It’s unclear whether the Farm Bill will become law before this Congress’ term ends at the end of December.
The error rate provision has prompted some states to tighten their application and renewal processes and to add more paperwork requirements. That has contributed to more than 5.5 million people losing benefits since Trump signed the bill into law in July 2025, according to the Food Research & Action Center.
Still, the measure could take a big bite out of state budgets next year at a time when many aren’t flush with funds. That could prompt states to take even more drastic actions, which could lead to more coverage losses.
Democrats will seek to draw a contrast between themselves and Republicans, who reduced the amount of federal loansgraduate students and parents can take out and made student loan repayment plans less generous for many borrowers, said Jon Fansmith, senior vice president for government relations at the American Council on Education.
That might include forcing congressional Republicans to take tough votes to keep the stricter rules or requiring Trump to veto the package.
Meanwhile, they may try to address a controversial Department of Education rule that subjects nurses, physician assistants, physical therapists and certain other healthcare professionals to lower loan limits than doctors. There may be bipartisan support to change that rule, considering the shortage of healthcare professionals in the US.
Democrats could also hold oversight hearings on the Trump administration’s efforts to dismantle the Department of Education and shift its responsibilities to other agencies. They would likely look into whether these moves are helping or hurting students and their educations.
Social Security and Medicare
Don’t expect Democrats to advance any serious measures in the next year to address the looming insolvency of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, which are projected to be drained in the early 2030s. Neither party is expected to tackle this complex and sensitive issue until closer to the deadline.
Democrats may float bills that seek to shore up the programs’ fiscal health to make it clear what their fixes would entail. They generally support lifting the income threshold on Social Security payroll taxes that would subject more of higher earners’ pay to the levy. Some would also expand benefits, such as making the annual cost-of-living adjustment more generous or increasing the minimum monthly payment.
Addressing Medicare’s financial problems will be more complicated. Democrats have supported expanding benefits, such as adding dental, vision and hearing coverage. They have also looked at ways to save the program money, such as rein in reimbursements for Medicare Advantage insurers — though not all of those would help the Medicare Part A trust fund.
Jeffries came under some scrutiny from Democrats when he met this year with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner about areas where the two sides could work together. The two talked about housing and criminal justice reform. Housing in particular could be an area where Democrats and Republicans negotiate.
Trump himself has also talked with Democratic New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani about housing and infrastructure projects. During his first term, Trump’s major bipartisan achievement was passing the First Step Act, an effort that brought together Democrats and Republicans in the months after voters gave control of the House back to Democrats during Trump’s first term midterm election.
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