作者： root

分析指厄尔尼诺或推高美国明年通胀率

发布/2026年11月5日 17:15

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研究指出，当厄尔尼诺现象出现，美国北部部分地区冬季偏暖、南部降水偏多，大西洋飓风次数也会减少。图为10月27日美国加州圣迭戈沿岸民宅，当地筑起一道长沙堤，抵御因厄尔尼诺而高涨的海水水位。 （路透社）

（旧金山综合电）美国旧金山联邦储备银行发布的研究显示，厄尔尼诺现象为美国整体经济前景增添了不确定性，可能会在明年推高美国物价和带动就业。

分析发现，历来厄尔尼诺出现时，往往会推高核心服务与食品的价格。旧金山联储的经济师日前在一份报告中说，当前厄尔尼诺可能导致今年4月至7月美国个人消费支出（PCE）价格水平，比常态高出约0.3个百分点。

如果厄尔尼诺在明年过渡为拉尼娜现象（La Nina），2027年个人消费支出通胀率（PCE inflation）可能因此额外上升一个百分点。拉尼娜与厄尔尼诺产生相反的影响，拉尼娜现象出现时，太平洋信风增强，而且太平洋沿岸海域的水温会降低。

研究报告指出，厄尔尼诺周期初期，物价上涨会较快影响消费者的钱包，但对劳动力市场的影响则需要更长时间才会显现。

在美国，厄尔尼诺带来的影响，包括会使北部部分地区冬季偏暖、南部降水偏多，以及减少大西洋飓风次数。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的数据显示，目前的厄尔尼诺是属于极强的级别。

研究显示，厄尔尼诺现象出现的第一年，美国非农业就业人数通常不会受到明显影响，就业人数将在第二年显著增加。当气候改善，冬季偏暖会降低供暖需求，同时提高建筑业和农业的生产效率。

新西兰数十头领航鲸搁浅 少数获救重返大海

2026年11月5日 16:42

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数十头领航鲸搁浅后，救援人员至今成功引导两头领航鲸重返海中。 （法新社）

新西兰自然保护部星期四（11月5日）说，数十头领航鲸被发现搁浅在新西兰北岛一处海滩上，救援人员正尝试让其中几头幸存的鲸鱼重新游回海中。

自然保护部说，至少20头领航鲸搁浅在北岛最南端帕利斯尔角（Cape Palliser）附近的恩加维海岸（Ngawi coast）。

该部门正同当地毛利部族和专门救援搁浅鲸鱼的组织“约拿计划”（Project Jonah）的人员合作，至今已成功引导两头领航鲸重返海中。

据新西兰广播电台引述当地居民的话报道，前一夜有多达50头鲸鱼搁浅在沿岸。

大多数鲸鱼伤重不治，志愿者则用水桶和毛巾为幸存的鲸鱼补水，尽力维持它们的生命。

新西兰和澳大利亚周围的深海中栖息着大量领航鲸，因此鲸鱼搁浅事件在这两个岛国并不罕见，但鲸鱼搁浅的原因至今不明。

美国国会翻盘 台湾学者吁政府及早经营跨党派关系

发布/2026年11月5日 17:31

• 美国中期选举民主党赢得参众两院控制权，参议院至少获54席，众议院至少237席，并翻转至少七个参院席位。 – 台湾前驻美代表高硕泰指出，选后参众两院台湾连线各有约八人和近30人离任，呼吁台方尽早盘点并争取新支持者。 – 学者李淳判断，民主党胜选不会逆转美国关税与科技政策，对华科技管制力度不减，但国会参与审查将大幅提升。 – 智库执行长董立文认为，分立政府未削弱跨党派挺台共识，国会将加强对白宫对华谈判、关税及军售的监督。

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台湾国策研究院星期四（11月5日）举行座谈会，探讨美国期中选后局势与对台影响。图为第一场次座谈，台上左起为台湾中央研究院政治学研究所特聘研究员兼所长吴重礼、中华经济研究院经济法制研究中心主任李淳、主持人国策院执行长王宏仁、国策研究院资深顾问高硕泰及中研院政治所助研究员傅泽民。 （缪宗翰摄）

美国国会席次翻转后，台湾学者认为，民主党掌控两院将加强对特朗普政府的监督，美国挺台方向未必改变，但台湾须经营新一届国会关系，并准备应对贸易协议审查、关税和科技管制变化；分立政府也可能使美国总统特朗普在外交和安全领域采取更强势行动。

美国星期二（11月3日）举行中期选举，民主党赢得众议院和参议院控制权。参议院至少54席归民主党阵营、44席由共和党取得；众议院民主党已确保过半，至少赢得237席，共和党139席。民主党翻转至少七个参院席位，众院净增逾20席。

州长选举方面，民主党翻转阿拉斯加、乔治亚、爱荷华、内华达、俄亥俄和得州六州，预计将以29比20掌握州长职位多数；堪萨斯州长选举仍未决。

台湾国策研究院星期四（11月5日）在台北举行座谈会，邀请学者分析这次选举对美国国会外交、经贸科技政策及台海安全等影响。

国策研究院资深顾问高硕泰在会中分析，这次大选后，民主党将运用监督、听证、任​​命和预算等权力牵制白宫。

他形容这场选举是“一股蓝色的洋流变成了蓝色的海啸”，并说特朗普虽称接受结果，却“没有认输”，因为“他（特朗普）的字典里面没有‘妥协’这两个字”。高硕泰认为，特朗普在国内受制后，可能转而在外交和国安政策上展现强势，以证明自己并非“跛鸭”。

高硕泰曾于2016年6月至2020年7月担任台湾驻美国代表。他指出，台湾长年发展与美国国会议员关系，历来参众两院都有约三分之一的议员参与台湾连线。但这次大选后，参院台湾连线30人中有八人将离任，众院也有近30人离开，台湾应尽早盘点并争取新支持者。

另外，高硕泰也提醒，近年美国国会议员访台人数和次数下滑，部分议员因北京在时任众院议长佩洛西访台后举行军演，以及特朗普对台言论、对北京示好而却步。

他呼吁台湾政府重新锁定邀访对象、把握州政府交流机会，并强调台美关系“不可断、不能断、也不会断”，台湾须冷静务实，避免一厢情愿。

曾任台湾驻欧盟兼驻比利时代表的中华经济研究院经济法制研究中心主任李淳则判断，民主党胜选不会使美国关税和科技政策“发生逆转”，但国会参与将大幅提升。

他说，民主党可能挑战特朗普对加拿大、墨西哥及其他伙伴加征关税的做法；对华战略竞争则有跨党派共识，特别是对华科技管制“力道与强度不会下降”，美国国会将推动更制度化、可检验的管制依据。

李淳进一步指出，美国推动再工业化的目标不变，政策工具可能由限制转向更多补贴和奖励。台美贸易协议未必因此被推翻，但国会可能要求更大审查空间，并修法限制总统单方面加征关税。台湾对美经贸、投资和科技合作料将延续，但须因应政策工具与适用对象变化。

对于美国中期选举对台海安全的影响，台湾国安局外围智库亚太和平研究基金会执行长董立文认为，关键仍在中美战略竞争的结构性限制，因此影响有限。

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台湾国策研究院11月5日举行座谈会，探讨美国期中选后局势与对台影响。图片左起为座谈会第二场次主持人、国策院副院长郭育仁，亚太和平研究基金会执行长董立文，台湾师范大学东亚学系教授范世平。（缪宗翰摄）

董立文以2018年和2022年美国中期选举为例说，分立政府虽造成内政僵局，却未削弱国会对华强硬共识及跨党派挺台力量。

他因此判断，这次选后美国国会将加强监督白宫对华谈判、关税和军售；即使白宫寻求有限缓和，台湾作为对华交易筹码的空间也越来越小。

把败选矛头指向白宫 共和党人促特朗普改弦易辙

发布/2026年11月5日 18:04

• 共和党在中期选举失去国会两院控制权后，党内将败选矛头指向特朗普政府，呼吁他改组白宫人事并放弃部分政策。
• 副总统万斯把败选归咎于伊朗战争等因素，似有意与特朗普拉开距离；一些共和党人担心其政策主张已成政治包袱。
• 民调显示约七成选民希望国会加强制衡总统，三分之二受访者认为特朗普的政策导致美国经济恶化。
• 共和党金主撒钱策略未奏效，马斯克为共和党捐款近5亿美元，但获超2亿美元支持的帕克斯顿仍败给民主党对手。

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美国民主党重夺国会参众两院控制权后，加利福尼亚州圣迭戈的社区组织与选民星期三（11月4日）举行集会，为自己手中的选票所发挥的力量而欢庆。 （路透社）

（华盛顿综合电）美国共和党在中期选举中痛失国会两院控制权后，党内随即掀起互相指责的浪潮，而矛头主要指向特朗普政府。总统特朗普的盟友和政治策略师纷纷呼吁他改组白宫人事并重整纪律，同时放弃伊朗战争和关税等被认为导致了此次惨败的政策。

资深共和党策略师费赫里形容，本届中期选举结果对特朗普来说是巨大的灾难。费赫里告诉路透社：“他需要彻底整顿白宫。从现在开始的每一天，他会越来越像跛脚鸭。”

一些党内元老也公开抨击共和党。得克萨斯州参议员科宁在《华尔街日报》发表评论，批评共和党犯下一连串原本可避免的政治错误，包括支持丑闻缠身的帕克斯顿在初选中挑战他，并最终代表共和党竞选得州参议员。

2012年的共和党总统候选人罗姆尼也炮轰共和党候选人盲目拥护特朗普的政策主张，包括反复无常的关税措施、冲动挑起的伊朗战争等。

白宫官员透露，白宫目前士气低落到了极点，高层正为人员离职、内阁可能改组，以及民主党将展开的一系列调查做准备。

一些共和党人担心，特朗普的政策主张已成为他们的政治包袱，尤其是对那些着眼于2028年总统选举的潜在继任者而言。

美国副总统万斯被视为最有希望接替特朗普的人选。他周三（11月4日）在社交媒体上发文，把共和党败选归咎于伊朗战争、生活费危机，以及美国和以色列的关系，似乎有意与特朗普拉开距离。

共和党策略师和党内官员指出，如果共和党人认定特朗普长期以来对共和党选民的影响力正在减弱，这种与特朗普划清界线的情况可能会越来越常见。

面对选民反弹和党内指责，特朗普周三在选后首次公开露面时，却再次大谈首都的各项翻修工程。一名共和党政治顾问说：“如果特朗普在接下来两年里继续谈论这些破事，下次选举我们将再次惨败。”

民调：七成选民希望国会加强制衡特朗普

美联社对全美50州选民的民调结果显示，多数选民对已处于美国政治中心十多年的特朗普感到厌倦和恼火。约七成受访者希望，国会能加强制衡总统。

特朗普未能兑现主要竞选承诺，尤其是遏制通胀，这显然拖累了共和党的选情。三分之二的受访选民认为，特朗普的政策反而导致美国经济恶化，这些选民约有八成投选了民主党候选人。

超过半数的选民说，政府腐败也对他们的投票决定起到关键作用。选民普遍认为，特朗普更关心自己的财富和奢华生活而非人民的需求。

此外，特朗普偏重忠诚，支持品格或经验受质疑的候选人，也导致共和党在本应稳操胜券的红州失利。

不过，选民虽寄望民主党能带来改变，但对民主党的看法也好不了多少。约半数选民对民主党持有好感，略高于共和党的四成。

共和党金主撒钱策略未奏效

另一方面，民主党横扫参众两院，凸显共和党金主的撒钱策略完全失效。在民主党赢下的多场选举中，保守派团体投入的外部资金远超自由派团体。

选举预测网站Race to the White House创办人菲利普斯在X平台发文指出：“这可能是美国政治史上，金钱政治遭遇的最大挫败。”

据竞选资金追踪机构OpenSecrets统计，亿万富翁马斯克此次为共和党竞选活动捐款近5亿美元（约6亿3800万新元），成为自2010年以来在单个联邦选举周期中捐款最多的个人。其中，超过2亿美元用于支持帕克斯顿，但他还是败给了民主党对手塔拉里科。

分析指厄尔尼诺或推高美国明年通胀率

发布/2026年11月5日 17:15

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研究指出，当厄尔尼诺现象出现，美国北部部分地区冬季偏暖、南部降水偏多，大西洋飓风次数也会减少。图为10月27日美国加州圣迭戈沿岸民宅，当地筑起一道长沙堤，抵御因厄尔尼诺而高涨的海水水位。 （路透社）

（旧金山综合电）美国旧金山联邦储备银行发布的研究显示，厄尔尼诺现象为美国整体经济前景增添了不确定性，可能会在明年推高美国物价和带动就业。

分析发现，历来厄尔尼诺出现时，往往会推高核心服务与食品的价格。旧金山联储的经济师日前在一份报告中说，当前厄尔尼诺可能导致今年4月至7月美国个人消费支出（PCE）价格水平，比常态高出约0.3个百分点。

如果厄尔尼诺在明年过渡为拉尼娜现象（La Nina），2027年个人消费支出通胀率（PCE inflation）可能因此额外上升一个百分点。拉尼娜与厄尔尼诺产生相反的影响，拉尼娜现象出现时，太平洋信风增强，而且太平洋沿岸海域的水温会降低。

研究报告指出，厄尔尼诺周期初期，物价上涨会较快影响消费者的钱包，但对劳动力市场的影响则需要更长时间才会显现。

在美国，厄尔尼诺带来的影响，包括会使北部部分地区冬季偏暖、南部降水偏多，以及减少大西洋飓风次数。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的数据显示，目前的厄尔尼诺是属于极强的级别。

研究显示，厄尔尼诺现象出现的第一年，美国非农业就业人数通常不会受到明显影响，就业人数将在第二年显著增加。当气候改善，冬季偏暖会降低供暖需求，同时提高建筑业和农业的生产效率。

First of 3 U.S. executions set for Thursday carried out in Indiana

November 5, 2026 / 4:45 AM EST / CBS/AP

An Indiana man who admitted killing his girlfriend’s two children was executed early Thursday in the first of three lethal injections scheduled for the same day in the U.S.

Jeffrey Weisheit killed the children, ages 8 and 5, by setting fire to his girlfriend’s house in the Evansville area in 2010.

Weisheit died at the Indiana State Prison in Michigan City. The lethal injection started just after midnight and he was pronounced dead at 12:45 a.m., according to Noelle Russell, Indiana Department of Correction chief communications officer.

She said Weisheit’s final meal was barbecue ribs and he had no final words.

Florida and Alabama were also set to carry out executions Thursday, which would mark the second time this year that three people in the U.S. would be put to death on the same day.

Alabama, Tennessee and Oklahoma conducted executions on Aug. 13.

It would be Florida’s 19th execution this year under Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, matching a record set by the state in 2025, but was the first this year in Indiana.

The death penalty has faced renewed scrutiny following the September failed execution of Christa Pike in Tennessee, although courts have rejected efforts to halt other executions since she survived two lethal doses of pentobarbital.

Pike said in a statement dictated to her lawyers and released a month after the botched execution that she’s been in pain every moment since she woke up confused in a hospital. “I had not contemplated life beyond that night,” she said.

Lawyers wanted Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Braun to allow Weisheit, 50, to undergo brain scans in an effort to reinforce their argument that he has a history of head injuries and mental health problems. Braun declined, and he also turned down a request to reduce the sentence to life in prison.

Weisheit’s latest objection centered on the state’s planned use of lethal drugs purchased from a pharmacy that is facing a disciplinary hearing next week at the Indiana Pharmacy Board. The Indiana Department of Correction said it’s confident “in our ability to humanely carry out” the execution.

Following the execution, Braun issued a brief statement noting Weisheit’s case was reviewed many times by state and federal courts.

“These reviews have never resulted in an overturned sentence,” he said. “Today, Weisheit’s sentence has been carried out as ordered by the court.”

Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita said that the execution provided “long-awaited justice for Alyssa Lynch and her brother Caleb, two innocent children whose lives were stolen in an act of unspeakable cruelty.”

The execution on tap in Florida

In Florida, Jesse Guardado confessed and quickly pleaded guilty to fatally stabbing a 75-year-old woman inside her Walton County home in 2004 before stealing her jewelry box, $80 and other valuables to support his drug habit. She had helped him get a job and housing.

A federal appeals court in 2024 said Guardado, now 64, had received a “full and fair” hearing during the death penalty phase of his case.

Florida has carried out more than half the 32 total executions in the U.S. so far this year. DeSantis, who leaves office in January, has said that his goal is to bring justice to families who have waited decades for the death sentences to be carried out.

Alabama’s scheduled execution

Michael Taylor, 54, faces execution in Alabama, 35 years after fatally beating an older couple with a metal bar during a robbery in their Gadsden home. Police arrested the 19-year-old Taylor with the victims’ Cadillac, an hour away in Birmingham. The execution would be the state’s third this year.

Death penalty opponents had urged Republican Gov. Kay Ivey to reduce Taylor’s sentence to life in prison, noting his age and immaturity at the time of the killings. She declined.

“If the state kills Michael, it is not the 19-year-old who made the worst mistake of his life who it kills. But the mature, well-respected, God-fearing man sitting in that cell today,” said Esther Brown of Project Hope to Abolish the Death Penalty.

The state plans to execute Taylor by lethal injection after a judge declared a nitrogen gas method unconstitutional. His attorneys objected to the last-minute switch to lethal injection since he selected nitrogen gas as his method several years ago, but a judge ruled against Taylor.

共和党中期选举失利 各国或更有底气抗衡特朗普贸易政策

发布/2026年11月5日 19:21

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分析认为，中国可能趁美国共和党在中期选举遭遇惨败、总统特朗普（图）政治地位削弱之际，设法增强自身在对美贸易谈判中的筹码。 （彭博社）

（华盛顿/北京综合电）美国共和党因生活成本高涨等问题引发选民不满，在中期选举遭遇惨败。分析认为，这可能让各国更有底气抵制美国总统特朗普的强硬贸易政策。

美国民主党星期二（11月3日）夺得国会参众两院控制权。政治分析员和经济师认为，这可能让各国更有理由放缓兑现此前为避免美国加征关税而作出的投资承诺，也可能使中国在与美国的贸易谈判中占据更有利的地位。

中美达成的脆弱贸易休战将在明年1月到期。分析指出，北京可能趁特朗普政治地位削弱之际，设法增强自身的谈判筹码。

澳大利亚科琳娜经济咨询公司经济师伊斯莱克说：“（中国国家主席）习近平会意识到，这次选举结果已大大削弱特朗普的权威，无疑也会考虑如何利用这一点”。

不过，特朗普在国内面临的政治困境，对北京未必完全是好消息。

法国外贸银行亚太区首席经济师埃雷罗说，民主党不大可能任由特朗普自行决定与北京达成什么协议。她认为，民主党控制的国会更可能支持收紧技术出口管制，并加强审查人工智能和半导体领域的供应链，限制特朗普在这些高增长领域向中国让步的空间。

美国在亚洲的两个主要盟友日本和韩国，去年分别与特朗普政府达成协议，承诺向美国投资5500亿美元（约7018亿新元）和3500亿美元（约4467亿新元）。

韩国西江大学经济学教授许允指出，民主党似乎认为，这些投资承诺是美国强加给盟友的。随着共和党在中期选举失利，有关国家可能觉得，履行承诺的压力已减轻。

不过，也有学者警告，特朗普在国内受到批评，反而可能在海外进一步向盟友施压，要求它们兑现投资承诺，以证明自己的贸易政策奏效。

日本上智大学研究美国政治的前嶋和弘教授说：“关税问题仍未结束。如果日本反应迟缓，要求进一步加征关税的呼声可能再起”。

对于仍在与美国磋商贸易协议的印度，中期选举结果也可能促使新德里采取观望态度，争取更有利的谈判条件。

印度与美国今年2月达成框架协议，将美国对大部分印度商品征收的惩罚性关税，从50％降至18％。

印度贸易部长本月初说，印美贸易协议第一阶段的文本起草已进入最后阶段，但重申只有在印度能够取得相对于其他出口竞争国的优势时，才会推进协议。

把败选矛头指向白宫 共和党人促特朗普改弦易辙

发布/2026年11月5日 18:04

• 共和党在中期选举失去国会两院控制权后，党内将败选矛头指向特朗普政府，呼吁他改组白宫人事并放弃部分政策。 – 副总统万斯把败选归咎于伊朗战争等因素，似有意与特朗普拉开距离；一些共和党人担心其政策主张已成政治包袱。 – 民调显示约七成选民希望国会加强制衡总统，三分之二受访者认为特朗普的政策导致美国经济恶化。 – 共和党金主撒钱策略未奏效，马斯克为共和党捐款近5亿美元，但获超2亿美元支持的帕克斯顿仍败给民主党对手。

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美国民主党重夺国会参众两院控制权后，加利福尼亚州圣迭戈的社区组织与选民星期三（11月4日）举行集会，为自己手中的选票所发挥的力量而欢庆。 （路透社）

（华盛顿综合电）美国共和党在中期选举中痛失国会两院控制权后，党内随即掀起互相指责的浪潮，而矛头主要指向特朗普政府。总统特朗普的盟友和政治策略师纷纷呼吁他改组白宫人事并重整纪律，同时放弃伊朗战争和关税等被认为导致了此次惨败的政策。

资深共和党策略师费赫里形容，本届中期选举结果对特朗普来说是巨大的灾难。费赫里告诉路透社：“他需要彻底整顿白宫。从现在开始的每一天，他会越来越像跛脚鸭。”

一些党内元老也公开抨击共和党。得克萨斯州参议员科宁在《华尔街日报》发表评论，批评共和党犯下一连串原本可避免的政治错误，包括支持丑闻缠身的帕克斯顿在初选中挑战他，并最终代表共和党竞选得州参议员。

2012年的共和党总统候选人罗姆尼也炮轰共和党候选人盲目拥护特朗普的政策主张，包括反复无常的关税措施、冲动挑起的伊朗战争等。

白宫官员透露，白宫目前士气低落到了极点，高层正为人员离职、内阁可能改组，以及民主党将展开的一系列调查做准备。

一些共和党人担心，特朗普的政策主张已成为他们的政治包袱，尤其是对那些着眼于2028年总统选举的潜在继任者而言。

美国副总统万斯被视为最有希望接替特朗普的人选。他周三（11月4日）在社交媒体上发文，把共和党败选归咎于伊朗战争、生活费危机，以及美国和以色列的关系，似乎有意与特朗普拉开距离。

共和党策略师和党内官员指出，如果共和党人认定特朗普长期以来对共和党选民的影响力正在减弱，这种与特朗普划清界线的情况可能会越来越常见。

面对选民反弹和党内指责，特朗普周三在选后首次公开露面时，却再次大谈首都的各项翻修工程。一名共和党政治顾问说：“如果特朗普在接下来两年里继续谈论这些破事，下次选举我们将再次惨败。”

民调：七成选民希望国会加强制衡特朗普

美联社对全美50州选民的民调结果显示，多数选民对已处于美国政治中心十多年的特朗普感到厌倦和恼火。约七成受访者希望，国会能加强制衡总统。

特朗普未能兑现主要竞选承诺，尤其是遏制通胀，这显然拖累了共和党的选情。三分之二的受访选民认为，特朗普的政策反而导致美国经济恶化，这些选民约有八成投选了民主党候选人。

超过半数的选民说，政府腐败也对他们的投票决定起到关键作用。选民普遍认为，特朗普更关心自己的财富和奢华生活而非人民的需求。

此外，特朗普偏重忠诚，支持品格或经验受质疑的候选人，也导致共和党在本应稳操胜券的红州失利。

不过，选民虽寄望民主党能带来改变，但对民主党的看法也好不了多少。约半数选民对民主党持有好感，略高于共和党的四成。

共和党金主撒钱策略未奏效

另一方面，民主党横扫参众两院，凸显共和党金主的撒钱策略完全失效。在民主党赢下的多场选举中，保守派团体投入的外部资金远超自由派团体。

选举预测网站Race to the White House创办人菲利普斯在X平台发文指出：“这可能是美国政治史上，金钱政治遭遇的最大挫败。”

据竞选资金追踪机构OpenSecrets统计，亿万富翁马斯克此次为共和党竞选活动捐款近5亿美元（约6亿3800万新元），成为自2010年以来在单个联邦选举周期中捐款最多的个人。其中，超过2亿美元用于支持帕克斯顿，但他还是败给了民主党对手塔拉里科。

Detroit—

What comes in a wave: So many Democrats winning means so many people were right about what they needed to do to win, that their claimed lessons directly contradict each other.

Is the model for Democrats the brash Egyptian American doctor who ran on big promises like Medicare for All and talked throughout his victory speech about Michiganders suffering through higher costs because of money sent to Israel for the war in Gaza?

Is it the mild-mannered Presbyterian seminarian who talked about Jesus and also border enforcement — while splitting the difference on Israel — to lead a Democratic takeover of Texas after the party went 32 years without winning a statewide race?

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Is it the Jewish governor of a swing state who talked up a pragmatic, reach-across-the-aisle record and won by 20 points while also carrying four swing House seats and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature?

“I don’t think it’s about left or middle or center – I think this is about listening to people,” Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro told CNN in a phone call on Wednesday afternoon. “They are disgusted about the chaos, the cruelty and the corruption. They do not want to be told what to do by a group of small, selfish men who are plundering our nation — and they put Democrats in charge to change that.”

Abdul El-Sayed, James Talarico and Shapiro are all resounding winners coming out of Tuesday’s midterms, which delivered once-unthinkable results like a Democratic senator from South Carolina, the first Black woman governor in history elected in Georgia, and a sweep of midwestern states that voted three times for President Donald Trump.

Amid the euphoria, Democrats are now debating how to make these midterms different from other elections where politicians’ promises fall short — and how to position themselves for a post-Trump era that may arrive faster than anyone may have thought thanks to Tuesday’s results.

“There’s not just fury at what Republicans have done wrong, but an invitation for Democrats who need to earn the trust of the American people to do so by getting in there and focusing on the things that have motivated people to go to the polls,” said Pete Buttigieg, the former transportation secretary and likely 2028 contender, after speaking at the Michigan Democrats’ joint party, where every few minutes a DJ interrupted the music to call out each big win.

Buttigieg urged Democrats to move quickly on formalizing an agenda.

“It’s taking stock of all of these 2-to-1 issues that most Americans agree on — that all Democrats agree on, that many Republicans agree on, and that Washington Republicans are energetically against,” Buttigieg said, listing raising the minimum wage, expanding Medicaid and the child tax credit, and political reforms limiting money in politics and gerrymandering. “If we do them in a rapid-fire — I’m thinking [bills called] HR 1, 2, 3, 4 all the way to 15 — that will show the Democrats are taking seriously the issues that sent them into office and daring the White House to get in their way.”

Trump is still president for two more years and there’s no way to legislate to the lower prices many voters said drove them to vote for Democrats, especially if they can’t find a way to work with him.

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the progressive agenda-setter who spent the final day of the campaign enthusiastically stumping for El-Sayed around the state, said that goes up to and including working on bills with Trump, if the president wants.

“There’s a good place to go for healthcare, tax fairness and childcare,” she said. “Some very popular bills, like surveillance pricing — that’s a place that we put it on the floor and say to the Republicans, ‘Put up or shut up.’ Stop the war halfway around the world. We’ve got the power of the purse. We can’t do everything, but damn, we can do a lot, and we better.”

Rep. Adam Gray, who, thanks in part to California redistricting, won his second term by 20 points after winning his first in 2024 by 187 votes, said the lesson for Democrats is in not governing like the Republicans the last two years. To him, that means means action on nitty-gritty items like permit reform on energy infrastructure and cutting wait times at Social Security offices, while getting people more money by raising the minimum wage.

“If we don’t find ideas that work and nobody’s life gets better or easier to navigate,” Gray said, “then voters are going to tire of us too.”

Touting his own resounding win in “the toughest swing state in the entire country,” Shapiro pointed out that now 9 of the 10 largest states will have Democratic governors, and many House districts that went with Trump two years ago will be represented by Democrats too.

“We now have the keys to the car,” Shapiro said, “and we have to drive it responsibly.”

Here in Michigan, a state that is in many ways a microcosm of the electorate the last 10 years, Democratic leaders themselves aren’t sure exactly what to make of a race that generated extreme interest and encouraged El-Sayed to declare to a large crowd that stuck around until 2 a.m. that he was going to use his seat “to transform our politics.”

One of El-Sayed’s running themes through his victory speech is what an unlikely candidate he was — a trained doctor turned public health official, running to become the first Muslim ever elected to the Senate with a very long and undeniably Arabic name. Republicans — and some Democrats — thought he would put the Senate seat in danger with his support of far-left priorities like Medicare for All, his challenges during the primary with Black and Jewish voters, and his alliance with prominent democratic socialists like Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

Instead, he called his shot and hit the 7-point win he predicted beforehand — though less than Michigan Gov.-elect Jocelyn Benson, who won by 11 but also had to be rushed from shaking hands with supporters after her victory speech so that El-Sayed could take the stage to a more raucous reception.

Abby Squires, a 35-year-old Lansing resident, spoke to CNN after voting for Benson, El-Sayed and Rep.-elect Will Lawrence. Squires said she wants Democrats to take her vote and others as calls to move quickly on healthcare, education and assistive technology for the disabled.

“It’s important to hear from the people that these policies are actually affecting,” Squires said.

Lawrence beat out two more moderate Democrats in the August primary then on Tuesday edged out incumbent GOP Rep. Tom Barrett after quitting the Democratic Socialists of America and trying to modulate himself going into November.

In an interview with CNN shortly after voting for himself in the basement of the First Presbyterian Church, Lawrence — who, like El-Sayed, was being trailed by a three-person documentary crew — said that while he saw a victory as a validation of turning away from taking corporate donations, he’s also reading it as a call for fast and concrete moves.

“**We can take action immediately to restrain the president’s out of control tariff agenda, which has caused prices to go up nowhere more than here in Michigan. We can also take action to reverse the disastrous cuts that have been made to the Affordable Care Act, as well as Medicaid,” Lawrence told CNN.

Elissa Slotkin narrowly won Michigan’s other Senate seat two years ago against the same Republican candidate as El-Sayed while running a very different campaign. The senator, who has spent much time since traveling the country telling Democrats they need to pursue a more moderate path — and stoking chatter of a 2028 presidential run on her argument, declined an interview request on Election Day to discuss what she was taking away from this race.

But on Monday afternoon, Slotkin popped into an El-Sayed event in Flint, insisting that she and her now soon-to-be colleague “agree on the important things.” Then El-Sayed took the stage to enthusiastic cheers from both a recently laid-off 68-year-old local named Erin Moss and a second-year law student of Iranian descent who arrived from New York wearing a Palestine soccer jersey and keffiyeh draped around his shoulders.

Maurice Mitchell, the national director for the left-leaning Working Families Party, said that’s why of all the races in the country, he spent the final days of the election pushing for El-Sayed in Michigan, as he had during the primary.

“**What it says is that we are absolutely in a populist anti-establishment moment, and candidates like Abdul can win everywhere. And I think that changes the political calculus for everything,” Mitchell told CNN in the parking lot after El-Sayed’s event Monday in Flint. “Working-class people are screaming, as loud as they can, ‘We cannot afford to live in this country and we need immediate relief!’”

Mitchell said that leaves him hopeful, with a warning.

“We might be on the verge of actually participating in a political realignment in this country,” he said, but “if the Democratic Party doesn’t choose to lead this populist moment, there’s a bunch of right-wing populists who would be more than happy to do that.”

Many of the Michiganders who voted for El-Sayed said they were convinced by his more basic talk of costs and unity that he campaigned on through the final weeks.

Semira Sharif, a nurse from Farmington Hills who came to El-Sayed’s event on Monday in the hall usually used as the Royal Oak farmer’s market, said she’s tired of the pain she hears from the seniors she works with or her teenage children who don’t have jobs.

“If he wins, at least we will have Medicare,” Sharif, who immigrated from Ethiopia 45 years ago, told CNN. “It’s not just one race is hurting. It’s everyone: Black, White, Asian, Jews, Christians.”

One of El-Sayed’s running themes through his victory speech is what an unlikely candidate he was, even though he had previously run for governor. At a moment when feelings of being abandoned by politicians is high, that anti-politician vibe ties him together with lots of other Tuesday winners, from Methodist minister Adam Hamilton who won a Senate seat in Kansas to Tejano music star Bobby Pulido and smokejumper Sam Forstag, who flipped House seats in Texas and Montana.

That will be hard to match for any of the longtime officeholders who are currently gearing up to seek the Democratic presidential nomination — just as mashing a collection of non-politicians into legislating starting in January won’t be easy. Incoming House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries will have a bloc of democratic socialists in his membership but also a newly enlarged Blue Dog Coalition of moderates.

But if Democrats want to win the 2028 and 2032 presidential elections — and if they want to keep the control they won of the House and the Senate — they’ll have to manage both feats.

A person close to Ocasio-Cortez forecast earlier in the year to CNN that her potential appeal and appetite for a presidential campaign would be “put to the test in the coming months: Will Democratic candidates in tough races recognize she is a net positive for their campaign?” She ultimately made a handful of appearances, both with ideological allies and more moderate Democrats like Rep. Eugene Vindman of Virginia.

An Ocasio-Cortez aide argued to CNN that she did campaign in tough races, including for winning Maine Senate candidate Troy Jackson, but did not respond when asked whether she hadn’t gotten more invitations or whether she declined some of those she got.

But all of the wins mean that the congresswoman but also other potential 2028 contenders — from Buttigieg to Shapiro to former Vice President Kamala Harris and as many as two dozen others — can claim a hand in a significant midterms victory.

Even Bill Clinton, who lived through his own massive midterm repudiation in 1994, was in Tupelo last Friday to help stir up enthusiasm and legitimacy for Scott Colom, who’s locked in a tight race for Mississippi’s Senate seat.

“Some days I hardly recognize the country I have loved so much all my life. The corruption, the ego projects,” he said in Tupelo, adding, “they like checks and balances as they define them. They get the checks, and we pay the balance.”

On Wednesday, Clinton wrote his own statement warning his party not to get too caught up with the scoreboard and think of Tuesday as “an opportunity and responsibility to rebuild trust.”

“Yesterday was a great day for our democracy,” he wrote. “If we want to hold on to what we’re feeling today, we need to get to work.”

Trump’s $950 million presidential library on collision course with Democratic Congress

November 5, 2026 / 6:00 AM EST / CBS News

As President Trump prepares for the final two years of his presidency, he is expected to devote more attention to his presidential library, which has become a growing destination for money from companies and allies, according to current and former advisers who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

“He undoubtedly recognizes that the library development season opens now, and he will go for it,” said a senior administration official. A second administration official said that in this lame-duck period Mr. Trump will focus on “all things he can control, which means: Building.”

With Democrats taking control of Congress in January after a sweeping victory in the November elections, lawmakers have pledged investigations into the library’s finances.

“The donors bankrolling his personal vanity project will have to answer to a new majority in Congress,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, told CBS News.

In March, Mr. Trump shared renderings of a 47-story tower on a donated plot in downtown Miami. It showed golden escalators, a full-size Air Force One and a giant statue of him raising his fist, as he did after surviving an assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July 2024. But then he told reporters he does not “believe in building libraries or museums” and that the building is “most likely going to be a hotel,” a departure from the traditional library his foundation described to the IRS last year.

The Donald J. Trump Presidential Library Foundation, a nonprofit, registered in Florida and run by Mr. Trump’s son Eric and son-in-law Michael Boulos, will fund the project. The foundation says it expects to raise $950 million by the end of 2027, including $600 million in 2027 alone, according to its October 2025 IRS application, obtained by CBS News. That far outpaces what Mr. Trump’s predecessors had raised at this stage.

Tens of millions of dollars have already come from media and tech companies that settled lawsuits with him. The nonprofit is also collecting donations through a payment processing company that has Donald Trump Jr. on its board, according to a fundraising portal page. And Mr. Trump has said the luxury Boeing 747 that Qatar gave the U.S. last year — now in use as Air Force One — would go to the library, though Eric Trump and the White House have since said that plan is not final.

Some of the most recent money has come from people trying to stay in Mr. Trump’s good graces. After the president threatened to cut ties with his top political advisers Chris LaCivita and James Blair over their consulting work for a pro-Russian party in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the two men donated their fees from that work to the library, The New York Post reported.

A week later, The New York Times reported that Mr. Trump had told aides and allies that his former personal lawyer, Alina Habba Mildon, should donate part of a contract worth more than $50 million to his library or another Trump-related entity. Habba Mildon’s contract was with a company tied to the family of a Venezuelan businessman Mr. Trump pardoned in January, the outlet reported.

Asked by CBS News whether she planned to donate some of her fees to the library, Habba Mildon responded to the text message with a “haha” reaction. (She removed the reaction seconds later and declined to comment.)

A former Trump adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the library is now where the fundraising action is, with the midterms over and donors already tapped for the America 250 celebrations and the White House ballroom. MAGA Inc., a super PAC run by Mr. Trump’s allies, started September with more than $400 million to spend on Republicans in the midterms. Its filing due in December will show how much left it has in cash on hand.

“The library is one of the last few places he can squeeze people for money,” the former adviser said. “That’s what a businessman does. He just creates opportunities.”

Fresh scrutiny of the library is expected after Democrats swept the House and the Senate on Tuesday. Starting in January, Democrats will have the power to subpoena records and compel testimony. Rep. Robert Garcia of California, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, issued a two-word warning on X to the administration after the election results: “Lawyer up.”

“Giant corporations and foreign governments should not be able to buy influence in Washington with donations to the president’s library,” Warren told CBS News, adding that she will be investigating the library “and any wrongdoing will be held accountable.”

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A rendering of plans for the Trump presidential library. President Trump, via X

The library has already drawn scrutiny over Mr. Trump’s stated plan to display the gifted jet. The plane’s memorandum of understanding, signed in 2025 by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Qatar’s Minister of State for Defense Affairs Soud bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, called it an “unconditional donation.” But when questions were raised about the U.S. accepting and using the Qatari plane as Air Force One, then-Attorney General Pam Bondi concluded that the gift could be conditioned on transferring the plane to the library foundation by Jan. 1, 2029, about three weeks before Mr. Trump leaves office.

In August, Eric Trump told NBC News that displaying the plane was “not the plan at the moment,” saying a retired Air Force One would be shown instead.

A Qatari official, speaking to CBS News on the condition of anonymity, said what happens to the plane after Mr. Trump leaves office is not Qatar’s concern. “This is something the Americans need to deal with,” the official said.

The White House referred questions about the library and whether any final decisions have been made about the plane or a hotel to the foundation, which did not respond to requests for comment.

“The Trump Presidential Library will be one of the most magnificent buildings in the world and a living testament to the indelible impact President Trump has made on America and its people,” Davis Ingle, a spokesman for the White House, said in a statement.

Tens of millions from companies Mr. Trump sued

There have been two iterations of the library’s nonprofit funding structure. The first, the Donald J. Trump Presidential Library Fund, was incorporated in Florida in December 2024, days after ABC News agreed to pay $15 million toward the library to settle a defamation suit over anchor George Stephanopoulos’ inaccurate on-air claim that Mr. Trump had been found civilly liable for raping writer E. Jean Carroll. A jury found him liable for sexual abuse.

Other settlements followed. Meta agreed to pay $22 million toward the library over the suspension of Mr. Trump’s accounts after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Elon Musk’s X paid $10 million to settle a similar suit by Mr. Trump and other plaintiffs. And Paramount paid $16 million over the editing of a “60 Minutes” interview with then-Vice President Kamala Harris. Paramount reached the settlement before its merger with Skydance Media. The combined company, Skydance, is CBS News’ parent company.

By then, the current foundation had been incorporated in Florida in May 2025, listing Eric Trump, Boulos and James Kiley, an attorney who has represented Mr. Trump, as trustees. The original fund was dissolved that September after failing to file a required annual report. Jacob Roth, an attorney who incorporated the first fund, declined to comment.

In March, Sens. Warren, Richard Blumenthal, and Rep. Melanie Stansbury asked the four companies for details of their payments. ABC said its $15 million was still in an escrow account held by a law firm representing Mr. Trump, where it had been since December 2024, awaiting release to the foundation. Paramount said it had paid $16 million but did not say to whom. Meta said $22 million had been “designated” for the library but did not say whether or where it was paid, and X, citing confidentiality, did not say how much of its $10 million settlement went there.

Mr. Trump’s financial disclosure, filed in June, lists $56.5 million in settlement money from ABC, Meta and Paramount as paid to the foundation. It lists $8 million from X as paid to Mr. Trump himself, without saying whether some funds reached the foundation. The foundation’s October 2025 filing with Florida charity regulators, which it labeled a proposed budget, projected $50 million in revenue and about $6 million in spending.

Meta and ABC declined to comment. X did not respond to a request for comment. A spokesperson for Skydance referred CBS News to the company’s July 2025 statement announcing the settlement, which said the $16 million included the plaintiffs’ legal fees and costs and that the remainder would go to Mr. Trump’s future presidential library, with nothing paid to him personally.

The settlements are not the only large gifts. SoftBank, the Japanese investment giant, told Congress in July that it gave the foundation $50 million in January to support a library exhibit highlighting U.S.-Japan relations. Two months later, Mr. Trump’s Energy Department announced it would lease federal land at a former uranium enrichment plant in Ohio to an affiliate of SB Energy, a SoftBank subsidiary, for a data center campus that the company says will be the world’s largest for artificial intelligence.

A spokesperson for the Energy Department said the agency signed its lease agreement with the company on Feb. 26, about a month after SoftBank’s donation to the library foundation. They added that a local development group first proposed the project in October 2024, before SoftBank acquired the lease rights in the fall of 2025. SoftBank did not respond to a request for comment.

A library or a hotel?

The library foundation’s filings offer few other details about how it operates. When it registered as a charity in Florida, the foundation said its officers did not expect to be paid. But in its application to the IRS, the foundation said it would pay its leaders. It projected spending $400,000 on compensation in 2025, rising to $1.2 million in 2027. The foundation’s bylaws say trustees can’t be paid, but other roles can come with compensation. Eric Trump is both a trustee and the foundation’s president.

The foundation told CBS News it expects to file financial disclosures covering fiscal 2025 by Nov. 15. It did not respond to a question about whether Eric Trump will be paid.

Fundraising for the library is led by Meredith O’Rourke, who has worked with Mr. Trump since 2016.

The foundation also raises money through PSQ Impact, a donation platform run by PublicSquare, a company whose board includes Donald Trump Jr. The foundation’s donation page says contributions will “help preserve important archives, promote civic education, and inspire generations to come.” Trump Jr. began receiving $42,000 a month in consulting fees from PublicSquare in August 2024, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

A spokesperson for Trump Jr. said he was not aware of the fundraising page and had no involvement in it. PublicSquare did not respond to questions about how much has been raised through the donation page or what fee, if any, it is charging for processing.

“This is just one example of many where the Trumps are set to possibly profit off something connected to Donald Trump’s presidency,” said Zach Everson, a researcher for the progressive consumer rights advocacy group Public Citizen.

It remains unclear what form the library will ultimately take. Mr. Trump’s suggestion that it could become a hotel is cited in a lawsuit filed in May by Miami residents, a local nonprofit and a Miami Dade College student. They argue that Florida’s gift of the 2.63-acre parcel, a former college parking lot, violates a U.S. constitutional provision that bars states from giving the president financial benefits.

The land was appraised at more than $67 million, but the suit cites real estate experts who say its true market value is over $300 million. The plaintiffs note that the state’s terms require only that the site include “components of a Presidential library, museum, and/or center” within five years, and do not preclude a hotel.

Other presidential libraries have been built on donated public land. Chicago leased parkland for Mr. Obama’s center for $10, and Little Rock used eminent domain to assemble the site for Mr. Clinton’s. But Florida conveyed its parcel outright.

The Justice Department has argued that Mr. Trump is immune from the suit. In September, U.S. District Judge Rodolfo Ruiz II, a Trump appointee, halted discovery, writing that the defendants’ arguments for dismissal, including presidential immunity, “may prove to be successful.” He has not yet ruled on motions to dismiss the case, and a ruling may not come until March, according to Gerald E. Greenberg, a lawyer for the plaintiffs.

If the suit is dismissed, Greenberg said the plaintiffs are likely to appeal.

“This case is really about one of the core anti-corruption provisions,” Greenberg told CBS News, saying the founders “understood the dangers of people currying favor with the sovereign by giving him gifts.”

“It is extremely disturbing to think of our skyline and our downtown being blighted by this monument to corruption,” he added.