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  • 英国女子尸体被装行李箱后在希腊被捕


    2026年8月3日 / 美国东部时间早上6:32 / 哥伦比亚广播公司/法新社

    希腊警方周日表示,他们已逮捕一名嫌疑人,该案涉及本月在雅典发现一名英国女子尸体的案件,尸体被装在行李箱中。

    警方在一份声明中称,他们逮捕了一名26岁男子,据媒体报道该男子为阿富汗籍,并称该男子已“供认了自己的行为”。

    他们表示:“有组织犯罪打击局的警员已侦破一起针对一名38岁英国国民的凶杀案,该女子的尸体于7月18日在Kipseli区一栋废弃建筑内的行李箱中被发现。”

    他们表示,已针对该男子开启“故意杀人、抢劫以及违反枪支法律”的刑事案卷。

    据警方称,这名据媒体报道名为伊丽莎白-简·罗斯、来自苏格兰的女子于6月26日来到希腊,在比雷埃夫斯地区的一处朋友住所居住至7月10日,之后前往雅典大都市区一处不明地点。

    据英国广播公司(BBC)报道,罗斯的家人表示,这位化名丽莎的女子曾告诉他们,7月15日她要前往Kipseli区,去找她的“美国朋友”。

    据BBC报道,警方通过分析视频监控锁定了嫌疑人。

    警方称:“调查显示,这名26岁男子将尸体装入行李箱并运至该废弃建筑。此外,在随后的几天里,该男子使用受害者的银行卡支取了钱款。”

    2026年7月31日,希腊雅典,7月18日发现38岁英国女子伊丽莎白·罗斯尸体的废弃建筑。Louiza Vradi / 路透社

    据BBC新闻报道,警方在对其住所进行搜查时查获了一把仿真手枪和一把刀具。

    据报道,该嫌疑人称他发现受害者时其已经死亡。

    美国国际刑警组织协助确认了受害者的指纹,英国国家犯罪局和苏格兰警方的联络官也参与了调查。

    警方表示:“尽管尸体已高度腐烂且环境条件恶劣,但(调查人员)成功提取到了受害者的可用指纹。”

    苏格兰政府发言人在给BBC新闻的一份声明中表示:“伊丽莎白-简·罗斯的家人目前正经历极其痛苦的时刻,在调查继续进行期间,尊重他们的隐私至关重要。”

    Suspect arrested in Greece after British woman’s body found in suitcase

    August 3, 2026 / 6:32 AM EDT / CBS/AFP

    Greek police on Sunday said they had arrested a suspect in their investigation into the death of a British woman whose body was found in a suitcase in Athens this month.

    The police in a statement said they had arrested a 26-year-old man, identified in media reports as an Afghan national, adding that he had “confessed his actions.”

    “Officers of the Directorate for Combating Organized Crime have solved the homicide of a 38-year-old U.K. national, whose body was found inside a suitcase in an abandoned building in the Kypseli area on July 18,” they said.

    They had opened a criminal file against him for “intentional homicide, robbery and violation of firearms legislation,” they said.

    The woman, identified in media reports as Elisabeth-Jane Ross from Scotland, had come to Greece on June 26 and resided at a friend’s home in the Piraeus area until July 10, at which point she departed for an unknown destination within the greater Athens area, they said.

    Family said Ross, who went by Lisa, had told them that on July 15 she would go to Kypseli, where her “American friends” were, BBC News reported.

    Police identified the suspect after analyzing video footage, according to the BBC.

    “It emerged that the 26-year-old placed the body in a suitcase and transported it to the abandoned premises. Furthermore, in the days that followed, the 26-year-old used the victim’s bank cards to withdraw sums of money,” the police said.

    An abandoned building where the body of a British 38-year-old woman, Elisabeth Ross, was found in a suitcase on July 18th, in Athens, Greece, July 31, 2026. Louiza Vradi / REUTERS

    During searches carried out at his home, police said they found and seized a replica pistol and a knife, BBC News reported.

    According to reports, the suspect said the victim was already dead when he found her.

    Interpol authorities in the U.S. helped identify the victim’s fingerprints, and liaison officers of the United Kingdom National Crime Agency and Scotland police cooperated in the investigation.

    “Despite advanced decomposition and adverse environmental conditions (investigators) managed to identify usable fingerprints belonging to the victim,” the police said.

    In a statement to BBC News, a Scottish government spokesperson said: “This is an extremely distressing time for the family of Elisabeth-Jane Ross and it is important that their privacy is respected while enquiries continue. “

  • 新闻


    美联储威廉姆斯:预计通胀将放缓,若未放缓则美联储将采取行动

    2026-08-03T10:02:40.309Z / 路透社

    摘要

    • 美联储威廉姆斯仍预计通胀将缓慢降温,将于2028年达到2%的目标
    • 威廉姆斯表示利率政策“处境恰当”,同时补充称若通胀未放缓,美联储将加息
    • 威廉姆斯认为人工智能投资不会带来金融稳定风险

    纽约8月3日路透电——纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯表示,他仍对通胀压力有望逐步缓解持乐观态度,但如果通胀压力未能缓解,美国央行将毫不犹豫地通过加息做出回应,以确保通胀压力回归目标水平。

    威廉姆斯在周五接受路透社采访时表示,如果能源价格和贸易关税见顶,且经济保持稳健运行,“我认为过去一年半左右推高通胀的一些主要驱动因素将不再那么显著,而我们此前一直观察到的一些反通胀力量应该会重新显现”。

    威廉姆斯称:“老实说,我相当关注未来几个月的核心通胀数据,看其是否符合通胀向2%靠拢的增速,是否真正处于可持续在2028年前实现2%通胀目标的反通胀路径上。”他补充道:“我个人的预测是,今年下半年通胀将有所下降,明年降幅会更大。”

    威廉姆斯重申,当前的利率政策立场“处境恰当”,足以将通胀拉回目标水平。

    但威廉姆斯指出,“如果经济未能走上将通胀拉回2%的轨道……那么采取行动让经济回归正轨、将通胀拉回2%的做法绝对是恰当的”。

    当前通胀水平远高于2%,且已有五年多时间未达到或低于这一目标。

    上周,负责制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会会议维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变,仍处于3.50%至3.75%之间。威廉姆斯表示,他“强烈……支持委员会维持利率不变的决定”。

    市场摩擦

    在上周的会议召开前,金融市场曾猜测鉴于通胀远高于目标水平且持续超标的时间较长,美联储可能会加息。

    美联储用于衡量2%通胀目标的指标在6月份同比上涨3.7%。该指标仍面临来自伊朗冲突等引发的供应冲击、唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税政策,以及企业在人工智能领域的巨额投资带来的需求压力等上行压力。

    三名美联储官员在此次会议上投下了反对票,并均在周五发布的声明中表示,美联储需要提高短期借贷成本以压低通胀。

    “通胀已经连续五年多顽固地高于2%,我不确信通胀会自行回归我们的目标,”克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克说道。

    长期债券收益率持续上升,投资者担忧通胀压力将持续高企。期货交易员已 priced in 年底美联储加息的不小概率。

    威廉姆斯承认,目前经济前景存在大量不确定性,中东冲突的重新爆发使得能源价格何时回落难以预测。但他表示,一旦冲突得到解决、航运恢复,通胀压力的改善可能会很快出现。

    “至少根据我的基本预期,我预计今年下半年或明年不会……因为中东冲突出现持续的通胀推升压力,但显然,这会根据实际情况发生变化,”威廉姆斯说道。

    当被问及美联储是否会受市场水平约束来制定货币政策时,他回应称“绝对不会”,尽管央行会密切关注金融市场。

    “我们始终必须开展自己的分析,付出艰苦努力,评估所有……影响经济、影响经济前景的因素,”威廉姆斯说道。

    在新任主席凯文·沃什的领导下,金融市场正在适应不断变化的美联储沟通环境,沃什已放弃提供所谓的政策前景“前瞻性指引”。

    人工智能无碍

    威廉姆斯还对人工智能的前景持乐观态度,并表示该行业近期出现的一些波动并不意外。

    资产价格波动“只是伴随着一个高度创新……快速变化的行业而来,我们过去也曾见过这种情况,”威廉姆斯说道。

    在企业借款扩张业务方面,他表示当前的杠杆水平与二十年前引发金融危机的杠杆水平不同。“大多数这类企业的收益都非常高,因此我目前并不太担心杠杆带来的金融稳定风险。”

    迈克尔·S·德比报道;丹·伯恩斯与大卫·格雷戈里编辑

    我们的准则:汤森路透信托原则。

    Fed’s Williams expects inflation to ease, says Fed will act if it doesn’t

    2026-08-03T10:02:40.309Z / Reuters

    Summary

    • Fed’s Williams still expects slow cooling in inflation, hitting 2% target in 2028
    • Williams said rate policy “well positioned” but adds Fed will hike rates if inflation doesn’t slow
    • Williams doesn’t see financial stability risks from A.I. investment

    NEW YORK, Aug 3 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said he remained optimistic that inflation pressures are on track to ease gradually, ​but if they don’t the U.S. central bank will not hesitate to respond with rate hikes to ensure price pressures return to target.

    If energy prices and trade ‌tariffs have peaked and the economy remains on a solid footing, “I think that some of the big drivers that pushed up inflation” over the last year and half or so “will not be at play as much, and then some of the disinflationary forces that we’ve been seeing” should reassert themselves, Williams said in an interview with Reuters on Friday.

    Williams said “I am quite honestly focused quite a bit on, what are we seeing in the core inflation ​data over the next several months, and is that consistent with a kind of a run rate of inflation moving towards 2% and really on a disinflationary path consistent ​with us achieving our 2% inflation goal on a sustained basis by 2028.” He added, “my forecast personally is for inflation to come down in ⁠the second half of this year and come down further next year.”

    Williams reiterated the current stance of interest rate policy is “well positioned” to bring inflation back to target.

    But Williams noted that “if ​the economy is not on a trajectory that will bring inflation back down to 2% … it would absolutely be appropriate to act to get us on a trajectory that does bring inflation back ​to 2%.”

    Inflation stands well above 2% and has not been at or below target in more than five years.

    Last week, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting left the federal funds target rate range unchanged at between 3.50% and 3.75%. Williams said he “strongly … supported the decision of the committee” to hold rates steady.

    MARKET FRICTION

    Heading into last week’s meeting, financial markets speculated whether the Fed might raise rates given how high inflation is versus the target ​and how long it has been above the target.

    The inflation measure the Fed uses for its 2% target rose 3.7% in June on a year-over-year basis. It still faces upward pressure from supply ​shocks triggered by things like the Iran war and President Donald Trump’s tariffs, as well as demand pressures from things like hefty business investments in artificial intelligence.

    Three Fed officials dissented at the meeting, and all said ‌in statements released ⁠on Friday that the Fed needs to boost the cost of short-term borrowing to get inflation down.

    “Inflation has remained stubbornly above 2% for more than five years, and I am not confident it will return to our objective on its own,” Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said.

    Long-term bond yields have been rising, with investors worried inflation pressures will stay high. Futures traders have priced in a decent chance the Fed will raise rates by year end.

    Williams acknowledged there is ample uncertainty around the outlook right now and that the renewal of conflict in the Middle East makes it unclear ​when energy prices might fade. But he said ​once there is a resolution and shipping ⁠traffic resumes, improvement could be swift.

    “I don’t anticipate, at least based on what’s happening so far in my base case, that we’re going to see … continued inflationary push in the second half of the year or the next year from the from the conflict in the Middle East, but ​that’s something that obviously could change depending on circumstances,” Williams said.

    Asked if the Fed would feel bound to set monetary policy based on ​market levels, he responded “absolutely ⁠not,” although the central bank closely watches financial markets.

    “We always have to come do our own analysis, do our hard work, assess all of the … factors influencing the economy, the outlook,” Williams said.

    Financial markets are navigating a changing Fed communications environment under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has moved away from providing so-called “forward guidance” about the policy outlook.

    AI IS OK

    Williams is also upbeat about the outlook for AI and ⁠said that some ​of the ups and downs the sector has seen recently are not a surprise.

    Asset price volatility “just comes with a ​highly innovative … fast-changing world there, and we’ve seen that in the past,” Williams said.

    When it comes to firms borrowing to build their business, he said leverage levels are not like those that helped lead to the financial crisis two decades ​ago. “Most of these businesses have very high earnings, so I’m not as worried about the financial stability from the leverage right now.”

    Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Dan Burns and David Gregorio

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

  • 新闻


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    韩军误认美军无人机为朝方威胁 险些击落

    2026年8月3日 18:58 / 联合早报

    韩国联合参谋本部星期一(8月3日)表明,韩军日前误将美军无人机识别为不明飞行物并险些将它击落,这是双方沟通失误所致。

    据韩联社此前报道,7月30日,韩美在韩朝边境地区举行联合军演时,韩军误把一架美军无人机当成来自朝方的空中威胁,随即启动防空作战系统,险些将无人机击落。

    后续调查显示,美军在演习前一天曾通过手机短信,把无人机飞行计划通知韩国陆军第一军团一名工作人员,但这名工作人员没有向上级报告。同时,美军在通报无人机飞行计划时也存在问题。

    根据韩国现行规定,美军如果要申请在特殊空域飞行,必须提前以正式公文向韩方通报飞行计划,并获得韩国空军作战司令部或地面作战司令部批准。

    韩国国防部星期一表明,已对事发时负责相关工作的陆军第一军团军团长作出停职处理,并将展开进一步调查。

    据悉,韩国北部边境部分地区居民一度因此次事件被疏散。

  • 新闻


    你提供的内容是中文新闻,并非英文新闻,请您提供需要翻译的英文原文,我会按照要求为您完成翻译。

    韩军误认美军无人机为朝方威胁 险些击落

    2026年8月3日 18:58 / 联合早报

    韩国联合参谋本部星期一(8月3日)表明,韩军日前误将美军无人机识别为不明飞行物并险些将它击落,这是双方沟通失误所致。

    据韩联社此前报道,7月30日,韩美在韩朝边境地区举行联合军演时,韩军误把一架美军无人机当成来自朝方的空中威胁,随即启动防空作战系统,险些将无人机击落。

    后续调查显示,美军在演习前一天曾通过手机短信,把无人机飞行计划通知韩国陆军第一军团一名工作人员,但这名工作人员没有向上级报告。同时,美军在通报无人机飞行计划时也存在问题。

    根据韩国现行规定,美军如果要申请在特殊空域飞行,必须提前以正式公文向韩方通报飞行计划,并获得韩国空军作战司令部或地面作战司令部批准。

    韩国国防部星期一表明,已对事发时负责相关工作的陆军第一军团军团长作出停职处理,并将展开进一步调查。

    据悉,韩国北部边境部分地区居民一度因此次事件被疏散。

  • 共和党议员在伊朗问题上违抗特朗普 但仍获其背书


    2026-08-03T10:00:27.720Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/politics/trump-barrett-iran-endorsement

    共和党众议员汤姆·巴雷特于7月底第三次投票限制唐纳德·特朗普总统的伊朗战争权力——试图推动对这位总司令的严厉谴责,而这项决议只有在本党议员支持的情况下才能通过。

    但仅仅四天后,巴雷特就在自己位于密歇根州的关键选区内的集会上站在特朗普身边,欣然接受总统的背书,并回以友好的表态。

    “他的竞选会很艰难。你们得帮他,”特朗普在将这位共和党议员请上台时说道。

    “我很自豪今天能与你站在一起,”巴雷特回应道。

    共和党幕僚将巴雷特与特朗普的联盟描述为一场政治权宜的联姻:很少会对违抗自己的人妥协的特朗普,给予了巴雷特非同寻常的自由度,让他可以自行其是——即便他试图阻挠总统对伊朗发动战争。特朗普明白,维持共和党在众议院的多数席位,有赖于巴雷特所在的这类郊区选区。

    在努力捍卫全美竞争最激烈的席位之一时,巴雷特正借助自己的军旅经历造势,哪怕他的立场与总统以及本党多数人相悖。这场竞选的关键可能在于,巴雷特能否在与总统形成鲜明对比的同时,又不疏远自己的支持者;在特朗普执政的共和党中,这是一条孤独的钢丝。巴雷特在2024年从民主党手中夺下这个席位,而特朗普也在该选区赢得了选举。

    曾在陆军服役22年并被派往伊拉克和关塔那摩湾的巴雷特,是仅有的四名投票反对特朗普政府对伊朗军事行动授权的共和党议员之一。在冲突超过《战争权力决议》规定的60天国会批准期限后,巴雷特成为唯一一名提出授权对伊朗使用武力的共和党议员,同时限制军事行动范围并设定明确的冲突结束期限。

    巴雷特投票限制特朗普对伊朗的战争权力时,心里想着自己在伊拉克阵亡、葬在3英里外阿灵顿国家公墓的朋友。

    “这让我心情沉重。战争的后果也让我深感不安。我有很多朋友没能回家,还有很多朋友退伍后生活艰难,”巴雷特告诉CNN。

    当被问及想对认为国会无权参与授权对伊朗持续战争的总统说些什么时,巴雷特回避了这个问题:“你可以去问总统那个问题。”

    周一在密歇根州的演讲中,特朗普在台下观众席有巴雷特在场的情况下,为自己的战争政策辩护。

    “当有人问‘我们为什么要这么做’时,就说‘因为我们绝不能让他们拥有核武器’,就这么简单,”特朗普说。

    但对这位密歇根州共和党人来说,推动国会在处理战争问题上发挥主导作用并非出于政治考量,他也不觉得有压力要改变自己的投票立场。

    “对我来说,这是一次凭良心的投票,”巴雷特说。

    巴雷特所做的权衡——在伊朗问题上谴责特朗普,同时设法与总统合作——是共和党幕僚认为对他们有利的策略。共和党幕僚表示,巴雷特直面伊朗战争问题,抵消了民主党对手可能发起的攻击,因为公众已经对战争行动感到厌倦。

    “我认为这对他来说非常有利,能展现他的两党合作态度,并能在对自己选区至关重要的问题上提出反对意见,”一位共和党幕僚告诉CNN。“我觉得这实际上能给选民带来耳目一新的感觉。”

    另一位共和党幕僚指出,巴雷特在所有竞选宣传材料中都使用直升机元素来彰显自己的军旅经历,并补充道:“他以军人身份为人所知,我认为在这个问题上,这种背景意味着他可以以权威的口吻发声,而且这看起来像是他出于为军队和国家着想的真诚反应。”

    这项策略部分是为了考虑巴雷特的选民的意见,比如曾与他一同服役、现任其退伍军人顾问小组成员的杰森·彼得森。彼得森认为这场冲突毫无必要,但他表示,巴雷特曾说过在共和党内部为战争权力投票争取支持有多困难。

    “这场冲突本就不该爆发。我自己也对此表示质疑。我身着军装为国家服役了20多年,”彼得森说。“现在或即将被派往伊朗的服役人员,正被置于出于不可告人目的的危险境地。在我看来,关于‘为什么要打仗’这个问题,几乎没有给出过像样的答案。”

    彼得森是巴雷特组织的一批退伍军人中的一员,他们会见了退伍军人事务部长道格·柯林斯,让参与者有机会提问并探讨如何改进该机构。

    巴雷特的选区涵盖密歇根州州府兰辛,该选区历来的议员都善于借助服役经历造势。曾在该选区任职六年的民主党参议员埃利萨·斯洛特金曾是中央情报局分析师,三次被派往伊拉克。巴雷特的两名主要民主党对手也都有军旅背景。马特·马斯达姆曾是海军海豹突击队队员,曾被部署到中东和太平洋各地;布里奇特·布林克曾是美国外交官员,曾在两党五位总统手下任职。

    曾担任前总统巴拉克·奥巴马的军事助手、负责携带核密码的马斯达姆认为,巴雷特的转变太少也太晚,因为他花了数月时间才加入少数同僚的行列,投票限制特朗普的战争权力。

    “巴雷特心里清楚。他当过兵,知道他前两次给特朗普开战争空白支票意味着什么,”马斯达姆说。“他现在这么做是出于政治原因,而非真心实意。”

    即便巴雷特试图在伊朗战争问题上亮出自己的立场,马斯达姆仍计划如果自己在周二赢得民主党提名,就将巴雷特与特朗普绑定。

    “他和特朗普一起露面,会极大地激发民主党人的斗志,”马斯达姆说。

    但巴雷特坚定地走中间路线,哪怕他必须部分独自前行,因为他知道自己的选民对战争行动存在分歧。

    “民众确实存在分歧,”他说。

    巴雷特赌选民会将他与特朗普的决裂视为忠诚的决裂,而是植根于其军旅经历的信念。在特朗普和巴雷特两年前都获胜的选区,他的政治前途可能取决于选民是否相信他既能与总统站在一起,又能挺身而出反对总统。

    GOP congressman defies Trump on Iran but keeps his endorsement

    2026-08-03T10:00:27.720Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/politics/trump-barrett-iran-endorsement

    GOP Rep. Tom Barrett voted for the third time to limit President Donald Trump’s Iran war powers in late July — attempting to help drive a stinging rebuke of the commander-in-chief that can only pass if members of his own party sign on.

    But just four days later, Barrett stood at Trump’s side during a rally in his own Michigan battleground district, basking in the president’s endorsement and sending back kind words of his own.

    “He’s going to have a tough race. You got to help him,” Trump said as he called the Republican lawmaker onto the stage.

    “I’m proud to stand with you today,” Barrett responded.

    Republican operatives describe Barrett and Trump’s alliance as a marriage of political convenience: Trump, who rarely gives ground to anyone who defies him, has granted Barrett unusual latitude to chart his own course — even as he seeks to thwart the president’s war with Iran. Trump recognizes that maintaining the GOP’s House majority depends on suburban districts like Barrett’s.

    As he works to defend one of the most competitive seats in the country, Barrett is leaning into his military service, even if his position puts him at odds with the president and much of his party. The race will likely come down to how Barrett is able to walk that tightrope between drawing contrasts with the president without alienating his support; a lonely road in Trump’s Republican Party. Barrett flipped the seat from Democratic control in 2024 Trump carried the district in the election.

    Barrett, who served 22 years in the Army and deployed to Iraq and Guantánamo Bay, was one of only four Republicans to vote against the Trump administration’s authorization of military operations in Iran. After the conflict crossed the 60-day threshold requiring congressional approval under the War Powers Resolution, Barrett became the only Republican to introduce a measure authorizing the use of military force in Iran while limiting the scope of military action and setting a firm deadline for ending the conflict.

    When Barrett cast his votes to restrict Trump’s war powers in Iran, he’s thinking about his friend who died in Iraq and is buried in Arlington National Cemetery three miles away.

    “That weighs heavily on me. And those effects of war weigh heavily on me. I’ve got a lot of friends who didn’t come home. I got a lot of friends who struggled after they came home,” Barrett told CNN.

    When asked what his message is for a president who believes Congress does not have a role to play in authorizing the ongoing war with Iran Barrett sidestepped, “You can ask the president that question.”

    With Barrett in the audience during Trump’s speech on Monday in Michigan, the president defended his approach to the war.

    “When somebody comes up and says, ‘Why are we doing this,’ Just say, ‘Because we cannot let them have a nuclear weapon.’ It’s very simple,” Trump said.

    Yet for the Michigan Republican, pushing for Congress to assert itself in how to handle the war is not political, and he doesn’t feel pressured to change his vote.

    “This is a vote of conscience for me,” Barrett said.

    The calculus Barrett is making — of rebuking Trump over Iran while also finding ways to work with president — is a strategy that GOP operatives believe will work to their advantage. GOP operatives say that Barrett addressing the Iran war head on neutralizes the potential attack from his Democratic opponents as the public has soured on the war effort.

    “I think this is really good for him to show that he’s bipartisan and can push back on the things that are really important for him in his district,” one GOP operative told CNN. “I think it’s actually kind of a breath of fresh air for voters.”

    Another GOP operative pointed out that Barrett has a helicopter to signal his military experience on all of his campaign branding and added, “He is known as a military guy, and I think that context on this issue means he can speak as a voice of authority, and it comes off as a genuine reaction of him doing what he thinks is best for the military, the country.”

    This strategy is in part to consider the vote of Barrett’s constituents like Jason Peterson, who served with him and is a member of his veterans’ advisory group. Peterson views the conflict as needless but says the congressman has shared how difficult it is to build support in the Republican Party for the War Powers vote.

    “The conflict should not have even started. I question it myself. I’ve been in uniform and served my country for over 20 years,” Peterson said. “Servicemembers that are in Iran right now or about to be, are being placed in harm’s way for ulterior motives. There have been little answers, in my opinion, in terms of the why.”

    Peterson was part of a group of veterans organized by Barrett to meet with Veterans Affairs Secretary Doug Collins, giving participants an opportunity to ask questions and explore how to improve the agency.

    His district, which represents Michigan’s state capital of Lansing, has a history of representatives who lean into their service experience. Democratic Sen. Elissa Slotkin, who represented the district for six years, was a former CIA analyst who served three tours in Iraq. And two of Barrett’s top Democratic opponents come from military backgrounds. Matt Maasdam was a Navy SEAL who deployed throughout the Middle East and the Pacific and Bridget Brink was a US foreign service officer who served under five presidents from both parties.

    Maasdam, who was former President Barack Obama’s military aide responsible for carrying the nuclear codes, thinks Barrett is pivoting too little, too late, as it took him months before he joined a handful of his colleagues in voting to restrict Trump’s war powers.

    “Barrett knows better. He was in the military. He knows what it means when he gave Trump a blank check the first two times to go to war,” Maasdam said. “He’s doing what he’s doing for political reasons, not because he actually believes it.”

    And Maasdam plans to tie Barrett to Trump if he wins the Democratic nomination on Tuesday even if Barrett has tried to stake out his own position on the Iran war.

    “Him being out there with Trump fires up Democrats a lot,” Maasdam said.

    But Barrett is steadfast in carving out a middle ground, even if he must go it alone in part because he knows his constituents have split views on the war effort.

    “People are divided for sure,” he said.

    Barrett is betting voters will see his break with Trump not as disloyalty, but as conviction rooted in his military service. In a district where both Trump and Barrett won two years ago, his political future may depend on whether voters believe he can stand with the president — and still stand up to him.

  • 美国农业机构员工警告:贸易、研究及援助项目因重组面临风险


    2026-08-03T11:05:10.062Z / https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-farm-agency-staff-warn-trade-research-aid-programs-risk-reorganization-2026-08-03/

    华盛顿8月3日路透电——根据工会调查及对10名联邦雇员的采访,特朗普政府计划将数千名美国农业部员工从美国首都迁出,由于员工拒绝搬迁,该计划可能危及研究、贸易和援助项目。

    美国农业部计划将其在华盛顿地区的4600名员工中的一半以上调至地区办事处,作为更广泛重组的一部分,农业部称此举将更好地为农民和牧场主量身定制服务。该机构其余7.7万名员工早已在该地区以外工作。

    去年,唐纳德·特朗普总统启动了一项全面重组联邦政府的行动,导致数万名员工离职,其中包括超过1.5万名农业部员工。

    路透社的采访显示,机构员工已开始收到搬迁通知,部分通知最晚在7月中旬才发出,涉及外国农业服务局、农业研究局、林务局和食品与营养管理局等部门。

    然而,采访和工会调查显示,绝大多数受影响员工并不打算搬迁,这可能导致大规模人员流失,进而影响研究、贸易代表团等工作。

    代表外国农业服务局员工的美国州、县和市政雇员联合会第3976分会主席科林·布拉德利表示,育儿需求、需要照顾年迈父母以及配偶的工作是员工可能拒绝搬迁的部分原因。

    布拉德利是路透社采访的10名联邦雇员之一,他以工会主席的身份发言称,员工们对农业部在哪些岗位将被搬迁以及搬迁原因方面缺乏透明度感到沮丧。“所有人都在问你们是如何做出这些决定的,但领导层没有人能给出具体答案。”

    美国农业部未回复相关置评请求,但指向一个包含以往关于搬迁备忘录和公告的网页。

    面临风险的项目

    据三名机构员工透露,7月17日,部分外国农业服务局员工收到了迁往堪萨斯城的通知。

    他们表示,许多受影响岗位属于该机构的外事部门,该部门为农业部在全球近100个外勤办事处的外交官提供支持,同时也属于管理国际粮食援助项目的部门。

    美国州、县和市政雇员联合会第3976分会6月的一项调查显示,仅有3.8%的外国农业服务局员工愿意迁往堪萨斯城,超过71%的员工表示,如果所在岗位被搬迁,他们将离职。

    一名员工表示,由于去年的人员离职,员工们的工作量本已加重,如今又面临若不搬家就可能失业的处境,外国农业服务局的士气正急剧下降。

    美国农业部的重组还将合并食品与营养管理局的部分办公室,该局负责管理农业部的16项营养援助项目,包括补充营养援助计划(即食品券)。

    代表部分食品与营养管理局员工的全国财政雇员联合会第226分会6月的一项调查显示,81%的员工不愿搬迁。一名食品与营养管理局员工表示,这可能导致剩余员工的工作量超出承受范围,进而造成项目中断。

    另有三名员工表示,将马里兰州贝尔茨维尔农业研究站的科研人员迁出可能会中断研究——包括番茄和草莓育种——并浪费资源,部分员工已于7月收到该站点的搬迁通知。

    工会与议员反对

    7月初,多个工会起诉美国农业部,以阻止重组,理由是大规模人员流失可能导致该机构无法履行其职责。

    这起诉讼得到了全国妇女、婴儿和儿童特别补充营养计划协会等组织的支持,该协会为妇女、婴儿和儿童特别补充营养计划提供倡导服务,依赖农业部员工提供技术支持。

    美国农业部表示,不会对正在进行的诉讼置评。

    参议院农业委员会最高民主党议员艾米·克洛布查尔及另外19名参议员于7月27日致信农业部副部长斯蒂芬·瓦登,对重组对农村发展局的影响表示担忧。

    信中称,该局60%的岗位将被迁往圣路易斯或达拉斯。

    在特朗普首届政府任期内,美国农业部曾永久性地将数百个岗位从华盛顿迁至堪萨斯城,导致大量员工流失。

    路透社记者利·道格拉斯华盛顿报道;蒂莫西·加德纳与奥罗拉·埃利斯编辑

    US farm agency staff warn trade, research, aid programs at risk from reorganization

    2026-08-03T11:05:10.062Z / https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-farm-agency-staff-warn-trade-research-aid-programs-risk-reorganization-2026-08-03/

    WASHINGTON, Aug 3 (Reuters) – The Trump administration’s plan to relocate thousands of Department of Agriculture employees from the U.S. capital could risk research, trade and aid programs as ​staff decline to relocate, according to union surveys and interviews with 10 federal employees.

    The USDA plans to move more than half of its 4,600 Washington-area ​employees to regional offices as part of a broader reorganization that it says will better tailor its services to farmers and ranchers. The rest of the agency’s 77,000 personnel already work outside the region.

    President Donald Trump last year undertook a sweeping effort to restructure the federal government, leading tens of thousands of employees to leave their jobs, including more than 15,000 USDA staff.

    Agency staff have begun to ​receive relocation notices, some as recently as mid-July, including in the Foreign Agricultural Service, Agricultural Research Service, Forest Service and Food and Nutrition Administration, according to ​the Reuters interviews.

    Yet the vast majority of those employees do not plan to move, risking widespread staff losses that could compromise ⁠research, trade missions and more, according to the interviews and union surveys.

    Collin Bradley, president of the American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees Local 3976, which represents staff at ​the FAS, said childcare, proximity to aging parents and spouses’ jobs are among the reasons employees may not relocate.

    Bradley, one of the 10 federal employees Reuters interviewed and speaking ​in his capacity as union president, said staff are frustrated with what they see as a lack of transparency from the USDA about which positions are being moved and why. “Everyone is asking how did you come to these decisions, and no one in leadership has been able to give a concrete answer.”

    The USDA did not respond to questions but pointed to a webpage with past memos ​and announcements about the relocation.

    PROGRAMS AT RISK

    On July 17, some FAS staff were sent notices to relocate to Kansas City, according to three agency employees.

    Many of the affected ​positions are in the agency’s foreign affairs division, which supports diplomats in the agency’s nearly 100 global field offices, and in the division that administers international food aid programs, they said.

    A June ​survey by ⁠AFSCME Local 3976 found that just 3.8% of FAS employees would relocate to Kansas City, while more than 71% said they would leave the agency if their position was relocated.

    Morale at the FAS is plummeting as staff, already managing a heavier workload due to last year’s departures, face unemployment if they can’t uproot their lives, said one employee.

    USDA’s reorganization will also consolidate some offices of its Food and Nutrition Administration, which administers the agency’s 16 nutrition assistance programs, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or food stamps.

    The ​National Treasury Employees Union Chapter 226, which ​represents some FNA employees, found in a ⁠June survey that 81% of staff would not relocate. That could mean program interruptions due to untenable workloads for the remaining staff, said one FNA employee.

    And moving scientists from the Agricultural Research Service’s research site in Beltsville, Maryland, where some staff received relocation ​notices in July, could interrupt research — including tomato and strawberry breeding — and waste resources, said three employees.

    UNION, LAWMAKER OPPOSITION

    In early July, ​several unions sued the USDA ⁠to stop the reorganization, citing the risk that mass staff departures would leave the agency unable to fulfill its mission.

    The suit was joined by organizations like the National WIC Association, which advocates for the agency’s Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, who rely on USDA staff for technical support.

    The USDA said it would not comment on ongoing litigation.

    Senator ⁠Amy Klobuchar, ​the top Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee, and 19 other senators sent a letter to Deputy ​Secretary of Agriculture Stephen Vaden on July 27 expressing concern about the reorganization’s impact on the Rural Development agency.

    Sixty percent of positions at that agency will be relocated to St. Louis or Dallas, according to the ​letter.

    During the first Trump administration, USDA permanently relocated hundreds of positions from Washington to Kansas City, resulting in significant staff attrition.

    Reporting by Leah Douglas in Washington; editing by Timothy Gardner and Aurora Ellis

  • 日本研发可溶于水的“环保烟花” 减少燃放残骸


    2026年8月3日 19:02 / 联合早报

    image

    日本一家烟花制造商与大学教授联合研发出采用水溶性外壳的“环保烟花”,燃放后的碎片最快可在一天内自然溶解,减少对环境的影响。

    共同社报道,传统烟花弹外壳多以牛皮纸制成,爆炸后碎片落到地面,通常须约半年才能分解。新外壳加入可溶于水的树脂,在适当环境下,一枚直径约12公分的中型烟花弹残骸可于翌日基本溶解。

    这类树脂常用于包裹农作物种子和土壤改良剂,可自然分解,即使被生物误食,也不会对环境造成不良影响。外壳接触水分后会逐渐软化,在河流等有流动水源的地方,最快一天内便可几乎完全溶解。

    日本许多烟花大会在河流、湖泊或海边举行,因此燃放后残骸常落入水中。研发团队希望借助新材料,加快碎片分解速度。

    新外壳仍须使用牛皮纸防潮,但一枚普通烟花弹所需纸张可从约两张A3纸减少至一张。

    研发团队曾尝试使用其他可生物降解树脂,但因可能产生微塑料而放弃。双方自2018年开始合作,最终解决树脂黏附生产机器等技术问题,制成新型外壳。

    日本研发可溶于水的“环保烟花” 减少燃放残骸

    2026年8月3日 19:02 / 联合早报

    日本传统“手筒烟花”表演者7月25日在群马县馆林市举行的烟花节上,手持装有火药的竹筒,喷出高耸火柱和火花。 (法新社)

    日本一家烟花制造商与大学教授联合研发出采用水溶性外壳的“环保烟花”,燃放后的碎片最快可在一天内自然溶解,减少对环境的影响。

    共同社报道,传统烟花弹外壳多以牛皮纸制成,爆炸后碎片落到地面,通常须约半年才能分解。新外壳加入可溶于水的树脂,在适当环境下,一枚直径约12公分的中型烟花弹残骸可于翌日基本溶解。

    这类树脂常用于包裹农作物种子和土壤改良剂,可自然分解,即使被生物误食,也不会对环境造成不良影响。外壳接触水分后会逐渐软化,在河流等有流动水源的地方,最快一天内便可几乎完全溶解。

    日本许多烟花大会在河流、湖泊或海边举行,因此燃放后残骸常落入水中。研发团队希望借助新材料,加快碎片分解速度。

    新外壳仍须使用牛皮纸防潮,但一枚普通烟花弹所需纸张可从约两张A3纸减少至一张。

    研发团队曾尝试使用其他可生物降解树脂,但因可能产生微塑料而放弃。双方自2018年开始合作,最终解决树脂黏附生产机器等技术问题,制成新型外壳。

  • 新闻


    日本研发可溶于水的“环保烟花” 减少燃放残骸

    2026年8月3日 19:02 / 联合早报

    image

    日本传统“手筒烟花”表演者7月25日在群马县馆林市举行的烟花节上,手持装有火药的竹筒,喷出高耸火柱和火花。 (法新社)

    日本一家烟花制造商与大学教授联合研发出采用水溶性外壳的“环保烟花”,燃放后的碎片最快可在一天内自然溶解,减少对环境的影响。

    共同社报道,传统烟花弹外壳多以牛皮纸制成,爆炸后碎片落到地面,通常须约半年才能分解。新外壳加入可溶于水的树脂,在适当环境下,一枚直径约12公分的中型烟花弹残骸可于翌日基本溶解。

    这类树脂常用于包裹农作物种子和土壤改良剂,可自然分解,即使被生物误食,也不会对环境造成不良影响。外壳接触水分后会逐渐软化,在河流等有流动水源的地方,最快一天内便可几乎完全溶解。

    日本许多烟花大会在河流、湖泊或海边举行,因此燃放后残骸常落入水中。研发团队希望借助新材料,加快碎片分解速度。

    新外壳仍须使用牛皮纸防潮,但一枚普通烟花弹所需纸张可从约两张A3纸减少至一张。

    研发团队曾尝试使用其他可生物降解树脂,但因可能产生微塑料而放弃。双方自2018年开始合作,最终解决树脂黏附生产机器等技术问题,制成新型外壳。

    日本研发可溶于水的“环保烟花” 减少燃放残骸

    2026年8月3日 19:02 / 联合早报

    日本传统“手筒烟花”表演者7月25日在群马县馆林市举行的烟花节上,手持装有火药的竹筒,喷出高耸火柱和火花。 (法新社)

    日本一家烟花制造商与大学教授联合研发出采用水溶性外壳的“环保烟花”,燃放后的碎片最快可在一天内自然溶解,减少对环境的影响。

    共同社报道,传统烟花弹外壳多以牛皮纸制成,爆炸后碎片落到地面,通常须约半年才能分解。新外壳加入可溶于水的树脂,在适当环境下,一枚直径约12公分的中型烟花弹残骸可于翌日基本溶解。

    这类树脂常用于包裹农作物种子和土壤改良剂,可自然分解,即使被生物误食,也不会对环境造成不良影响。外壳接触水分后会逐渐软化,在河流等有流动水源的地方,最快一天内便可几乎完全溶解。

    日本许多烟花大会在河流、湖泊或海边举行,因此燃放后残骸常落入水中。研发团队希望借助新材料,加快碎片分解速度。

    新外壳仍须使用牛皮纸防潮,但一枚普通烟花弹所需纸张可从约两张A3纸减少至一张。

    研发团队曾尝试使用其他可生物降解树脂,但因可能产生微塑料而放弃。双方自2018年开始合作,最终解决树脂黏附生产机器等技术问题,制成新型外壳。

  • 美日联手干预扶持日元 特朗普指因两国关系良好


    2026年8月3日 19:14 / 联合早报

    日本财长片山皋月星期一(8月3日)在东京对媒体说,日美的联合行动遏制了日元近几个月来出现的过度波动和无序走势,并表示两国将毫不犹豫地采取进一步的联合干预措施。 (彭博社)

    (华盛顿/东京综合电)美国总统特朗普星期天(8月2日)证实,美国已采取干预措施扶持日元,并指此举是出于两国友好情谊,对全球经济也有帮助。日美星期一说,两国准备必要时再次联手干预。

    blob:https://www.zaobao.com.sg/0cfe9920-da52-4c78-a9ab-2faec1770535

    特朗普在总统专机空军一号上,被问到美国为何与日本联手扶持日元时回答:“我们始终支持日本。我们与日本关系良好。”

    特朗普认为,华盛顿将从这一举措中获得经济利益,但“归根结底,这更是一种友谊的象征”。

    日本财长片山皋月也证实了此次联合干预行动,指日本财政部上周五与美国财政部协同买入日元。

    她说:“这是自1998年以来日美首次采取协同干预措施买入日元,两国自然是各自进行了评估,认定此类干预确有必要,这才采取了联合行动”。

    片山皋月星期一发声明指出,日美的联合行动遏制了日元近几个月来出现的过度波动和无序走势。她对记者说:“我们将毫不犹豫地采取进一步的联合干预措施”。

    美国财长贝森特星期天也在社交媒体平台X发文说,上周五协调一致的外汇干预措施,遏制了日元的无序波动。他指美国将毫不犹豫地参与进一步的联合干预。

    贝森特说:“我们大力支持日本采取果断的市场和货币措施,纠正日元被大幅低估的状况”。他说,经济安全和美日同盟是促成这一行动的部分原因。

    日美联合干预后,日元兑美元汇率升超过1%,至155.20兑一美元,创下今年5月初以来的最高位。至于新元,周一下午4时,122.27日元兑一新元。

    今年以来,日元汇率持续走弱。上个月日元对美元汇率,一度逼近1美元兑164日元的40年低点。交易员正密切留意接下来可能出现更多日美联手干预的情况。

    日本一直难以遏制日元汇率不断下跌,东京在4、5月进行的单方面干预,只是让日元短暂反弹。日本央行在6月将利率上调至1%,也未能给疲软的日元带来持久的提振。

    日元贬值推高进口价格并加剧通货膨胀,不仅加重家庭的经济负担,也拉低首相高市早苗的民意支持率。

    摩根大通的策略师认为,美国财政部的干预能力有限,因为外汇稳定基金(ESF)资源有限,如要追加资金还需要经过国会批准。

    分析质疑美日最新一轮行动能否扭转导致日元走软的结构性因素,比如中东冲突引发的燃料成本上升,以及日美之间依然巨大的利差。

    日生基础研究所(NLI Research Institute)高级经济师上野刚志说,日美联合干预所产生的公告效应,远大于日本单独采取行动的效果。“然而,导致日元疲软的基本面因素并未改变,因此这次干预不太可能带来日元单边升值”。

    三菱日联摩根士丹利证券投资研究部首席经济师六车治美认为,近期日元走弱主要反映市场对日本财政扩张和日本央行货币政策反应滞后的担忧。

    汇市干预属于短期应对措施,要稳定日元走势,仍需要从财政和货币政策调整等方面入手。

    美日联手干预扶持日元 特朗普指因两国关系良好

    2026年8月3日 19:14 / 联合早报

    日本财长片山皋月星期一(8月3日)在东京对媒体说,日美的联合行动遏制了日元近几个月来,出现的过度波动和无序走势,并表示两国将毫不犹豫地,采取进一步的联合干预措施。 (彭博社)

    (华盛顿/东京综合电)美国总统特朗普星期天(8月2日)证实,美国已采取干预措施扶持日元,并指此举是出于两国友好情谊,对全球经济也有帮助。日美星期一说,两国准备必要时再次联手干预。

    blob:https://www.zaobao.com.sg/0cfe9920-da52-4c78-a9ab-2faec1770535

    特朗普在总统专机空军一号上,被问到美国为何与日本联手扶持日元时回答:“我们始终支持日本。我们与日本关系良好。”

    特朗普认为,华盛顿将从这一举措中获得经济利益,但“归根结底,这更是一种友谊的象征”。

    日本财长片山皋月也证实了此次联合干预行动,指日本财政部上周五与美国财政部协同买入日元。

    她说:“这是自1998年以来日美首次采取协同干预措施买入日元,两国自然是各自进行了评估,认定此类干预确有必要,这才采取了联合行动”。

    片山皋月星期一发声明指出,日美的联合行动遏制了日元近几个月来,出现的过度波动和无序走势。她对记者说:“我们将毫不犹豫地,采取进一步的联合干预措施”。

    美国财长贝森特星期天也在社交媒体平台X发文说,上周五协调一致的外汇干预措施,遏制了日元的无序波动。他指美国将毫不犹豫地参与进一步的联合干预。

    贝森特说:“我们大力支持日本采取果断的市场和货币措施,纠正日元被大幅低估的状况”。他说,经济安全和美日同盟是促成这一行动的部分原因。

    日美联合干预后,日元兑美元汇率升超过1%,至155.20兑一美元,创下今年5月初以来的最高位。至于新元,周一下午4时,122.27日元兑一新元。

    今年以来,日元汇率持续走弱。上个月日元对美元汇率,一度逼近1美元兑164日元的40年低点。交易员正密切留意接下来可能出现更多日美联手干预的情况。

    日本一直难以遏制日元汇率不断下跌,东京在4、5月进行的单方面干预,只是让日元短暂反弹。日本央行在6月将利率上调至1%,也未能给疲软的日元带来持久的提振。

    日元贬值推高进口价格并加剧通货膨胀,不仅加重家庭的经济负担,也拉低首相高市早苗的民意支持率。

    摩根大通的策略师认为,美国财政部的干预能力有限,因为外汇稳定基金(ESF)资源有限,如要追加资金还需要经过国会批准。

    分析质疑美日最新一轮行动能否扭转导致日元走软的结构性因素,比如中东冲突引发的燃料成本上升,以及日美之间依然巨大的利差。

    日生基础研究所(NLI Research Institute)高级经济师上野刚志说,日美联合干预所产生的公告效应,远大于日本单独采取行动的效果。“然而,导致日元疲软的基本面因素并未改变,因此这次干预不太可能带来日元单边升值”。

    三菱日联摩根士丹利证券投资研究部首席经济师六车治美认为,近期日元走弱主要反映市场对日本财政扩张和日本央行货币政策反应滞后的担忧。

    汇市干预属于短期应对措施,要稳定日元走势,仍需要从财政和货币政策调整等方面入手。

  • 参议院民主党人将红色州纳入竞选版图。但这或许已不够用了


    2026-08-03T08:00:25.637Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/politics/democrats-midterms-senate

    2026年选举周期伊始,民主党人掌控参议院多数席位的希望面临的最大障碍似乎一目了然:选举地图对他们极为不利。

    他们需要至少拿下两个在2024年总统选举中唐纳德·特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州。当时人们甚至不确定他们能否将这么多红色州纳入竞选范围。

    如今,越来越多的民调显示,他们已经将足够多的这类州纳入了竞选版图。但其他让其多数席位优势计算变得复杂的障碍也随之浮现——为了在2027年掌控参议院,一场极其复杂且事关重大的较量即将拉开帷幕。

    对民主党人来说的好消息是:近期开展的高质量早期民调显示,这些红色州已具备竞争力。但对该党的坏消息是:仅此或许还不够。

    在得克萨斯州,周五公布的福克斯新闻民调显示,民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科在登记选民中支持率达51%,州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿为48%。这不过是最新一份显示这场竞选势均力敌的民调。

    在艾奥瓦州,6月底的福克斯新闻民调显示,州众议员乔希·图雷克在登记选民中领先4个百分点。而在同月晚些时候《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院联合开展的民调中,他与共和党众议员阿什利·辛森的支持率不相上下——可能选民中两人分别为46%和48%。

    在俄亥俄州,6月初的福克斯新闻民调显示,前参议员谢罗德·布朗在登记选民中领先8个百分点。而在当月晚些时候《泰晤士报》与锡耶纳学院的民调中,他与共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德的支持率相差无几——可能选民中两人分别为47%和50%。

    在阿拉斯加州,《泰晤士报》与锡耶纳学院的民调显示,民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉与共和党参议员丹·沙利文的支持率差距仅为2个百分点。

    当然,现阶段的民调并不能用来预测选举结果,但它表明这些候选人正在做他们该做的事,以让这些州具备竞争力。

    具体而言,福克斯新闻的民调显示,他们测试的三位民主党候选人都以较大优势赢得了独立选民的支持——在塔拉里科和图雷克的竞选中,这一优势甚至超过了2比1。塔拉里科和图雷克也都获得了至少23%的非“让美国再次伟大”派共和党人的支持。(俄亥俄州的民调未单独列出这一群体的数据。)

    在《泰晤士报》与锡耶纳学院的民调中,佩尔托拉在独立选民中以51%比37%领先,还获得了8%的共和党选民支持。

    民主党人能否在像得克萨斯州这样的州真正突破难关——该州此前曾多次接近胜利,但30多年来都未赢得过全州范围的选举——是一个大问题。但显然,他们已经为拿下其中两州创造了机会。

    民主党人突然在一些对他们更友好的州遇到了麻烦—— namely,缅因州和密歇根州——还有一个被称为参议员约翰·费特曼的新未知因素。

    在缅因州,民主党人已经摆脱了格雷厄姆·普拉特纳带来的问题。但目前尚不清楚他的替代者、前州参议院议长特洛伊·杰克逊在新的聚光灯下最终能取得多大成效。

    7月中旬新罕布什尔大学的民调显示,在可能参加大选的选民中,杰克逊的支持率为49%,共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯为46%。但同一家民调机构此前曾在普拉特纳陷入更大争议之前,显示他领先对手9至11个百分点。

    密歇根州是民主党人更紧迫的担忧所在,他们需要守住退休参议员加里·彼得斯空出的席位。一些民主党高层人士严重担忧,支持参议员伯尼·桑德斯的阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德——他将于周二在民主党初选中对阵众议员黑利·史蒂文斯——可能会危及这个民主党人在对本党有利的年份本应轻松拿下的紫色州。

    (一个恰当的例子:近期民调显示,民主党候选人在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州等处境相似的摇摆州以约10个百分点的优势轻松领先。)

    但或许在这场多数席位优势计算中,最不受欢迎的变量可能是费特曼。这位宾夕法尼亚州参议员近年来表现出倾向于与共和党人站在一起、让本党陷入困境的倾向,如今也越来越多地流露出走党换门的念头。

    早在5月,费特曼就曾表示他“没有离开民主党”的计划。但几周前,他修正了这一立场,称如果民主党采取反以色列立场,他就会退党——这一话题在民主党内部引发了严重分歧。

    民主党人的立场正越来越倾向于反对以色列,这反映了其基础选民的观点,不过正如费特曼所指出的,这并非民主党“官方”立场。尽管如此,考虑到基础选民施加的巨大压力,真正的问题在于,对这位宾夕法尼亚州参议员来说,这一立场会成为多么严格的试金石。

    这意味着民主党人在11月大选前甚至都无法确定自己需要赢得多少个席位。他们是否需要像此前预想的那样,拿下包括两个特朗普以大幅优势获胜的红色州在内的四个席位?还是说他们实际上需要分别赢得五个和三个席位?

    民主党人显然占据了基本盘优势,而当前的环境似乎也有利于他们在需要获胜的地方取胜。就像在红色州一样,民调显示他们在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州的候选人在独立选民中拥有巨大领先优势,并且获得了相当数量的非“让美国再次伟大”派共和党人的支持。

    但看起来最终决定参议院命运的,或许不再是红色州。

    Senate Democrats are putting red states in play. That might not be good enough anymore

    2026-08-03T08:00:25.637Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/politics/democrats-midterms-senate

    The big hurdle for Democrats’ Senate majority hopes at the start of the 2026 election cycle seemed clear: The map was terrible for them.

    They needed to win at least two states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024. It wasn’t even clear they could put that many red states in play.

    Now, polls increasingly suggest they have put more than enough of those states in play. But other hurdles that complicate their majority math have cropped up — creating an incredibly complex and high-stakes battle to control the Senate come 2027.

    The good news for Democrats: Recent, early high-quality polling suggests red states are competitive. The bad news for the party: That might not be sufficient.

    In Texas, a Fox News poll Friday showed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico at 51% among registered voters to state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s 48%. It’s merely the latest to show the race close to even.

    In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek led by 4 points among registered voters in a Fox poll in late June. And he was neck and neck with GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson — 46% to 48% among likely voters — in a New York Times-Siena poll, also in late June.

    In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown led by 8 points among registered voters in a Fox poll from early June. And he was running close with GOP Sen. Jon Husted — 47% to 50% among likely voters — in a Times-Siena poll from later that month.

    And in Alaska, a Times-Siena poll showed Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola within 2 points of GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan.

    Polling at this stage can’t be interpreted to predict results, of course, but it suggests that these candidates are doing what they need to do to make those states competitive.

    Specifically, the Fox polls show the three Democrats they tested carrying independents by wide margins — including by more than a 2-1 ratio in Talarico’s and Turek’s cases. And both Talarico and Turek were both also carrying at least 23% of non-MAGA Republicans. (The Ohio poll didn’t break out this group.)

    Peltola also led 51%-37% among independents and took 8% of Republicans in the Times-Siena poll.

    Whether Democrats can actually get over the hump in a state like Texas — where they’ve come close before, but haven’t won a statewide race in more than 30 years — is a big question. But they’ve pretty evidently given themselves a chance to pick off two of those states.

    Democrats are suddenly dealing with complications in some friendlier states — namely, Maine and Michigan — and the new x-factor known as Sen. John Fetterman.

    In Maine, Democrats were able to rid themselves of their Graham Platner problem. But it’s not yet clear how much better his replacement, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, will ultimately fare under the new spotlight.

    A University of New Hampshire poll in mid-July put Jackson at 49% to GOP Sen. Susan Collins’ 46% among likely general election voters. But the same pollster once had Platner (prior to his bigger controversies) leading by between 9 and 11 points.

    Michigan is Democrats’ more immediate concern, where they’re playing defense to hold onto a seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters. There are major concerns among some establishment Democrats that Sen. Bernie Sanders-backed Abdul El-Sayed, who’s facing Rep. Haley Stevens in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, might jeopardize a purple state that Democrats would reasonably expect to win in a favorable year for their party.

    (A case in point: Recent polls show Democratic candidates comfortably ahead — by around 10 points — in similarly situated swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.)

    But perhaps the most unwelcome variable in this majority math might be Fetterman. The Pennsylvania senator, who has demonstrated a penchant for siding with Republicans and giving his party fits in recent months, has also increasingly flirted with switching parties.

    Back in May, Fetterman wrote that he had “no plans to leave” the Democratic Party. But a couple weeks ago, he amended that posture by saying he would leave it if it adopts an anti-Israel posture — a topic causing significant strife within the party.

    Democrats have been trending more against Israel, reflecting the views of their base, though it isn’t an “official” position, as Fetterman laid out. Still, given huge pressure from that base, the real question is how stringent a litmus test this is for the Pennsylvania senator.

    That means Democrats could go into the November general election not even knowing how many seats they need to win. Do they need to flip four seats, including two red ones that Trump carried by significant margins, as they’d previously thought? Or do they need to actually win five and three, respectively?

    Democrats clearly have the fundamentals on their side, and it’s looking like the environment is conducive to them winning where they need to. Just like in the red states, polls show their candidates in Georgia and North Carolina have big leads among independents and are taking significant numbers of non-MAGA Republicans.

    But it’s also looking like it might not be red states that ultimately decide the fate of the Senate.

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