2026-10-19T04:00:44.798Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
未来两周，副总统JD·万斯的核心任务是为共和党保住国会席位。
但在此之后，他将转向另一项政治计划——为自己谋划。
万斯在2026年选举收官阶段围绕伊朗战争、高油价和移民问题发表的言论，正成为一项早期考验：作为2028年总统候选人，他将如何应对其老板唐纳德·特朗普总统任内充满动荡的政治遗产。这绝非易事。
从本周六播出的CBS市民论坛上万斯的表现来看，他难以驾驭当前由特朗普不受欢迎的形象及其政策选择所造成的糟糕中期选举环境。他无法承诺立即缓解油价高企问题，只能恳求选民给饱受诟病的经济更多时间，在结束伊朗战争的问题上态度模糊——这些都凸显出，距离选举还有两周之际，民主党占据上风的概率为何如此之高。
“从根本上说，我们目前的处境就是这样。”万斯如是说。他的这番话专门回应了民主党参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德对伊朗政策的批评，但也精准道出了深陷特朗普政治暗流的共和党候选人的无奈。
这场尖锐的提问也预示着万斯即将面临一项重大抉择：是否要参加2028年总统竞选。如果11月3日共和党遭遇惨败，那么无论谁成为共和党总统继承人，都将在两年内肩负起重塑共和党竞选纲领和吸引力的重任——而特朗普将全程在旁监督。
万斯相当谨慎地试图为特朗普在移民等关键问题上的过激立场辩护，这些立场或许能取悦“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）阵营的基础选民，但往往会疏远更广泛的普通民众。当被一名修女问及移民海关执法局的家庭分离政策为何显得缺乏同情心并给儿童造成心理创伤时，万斯表示：“我们正努力寻求恰当的平衡。”
而万斯的另一项惯用手段——指责前总统乔·拜登——在两年后的选举中可能会被证明是一个更站不住脚的策略，这一点在此次中期选举中已初现端倪。
不过，万斯本身也是一位引人关注的政治人物。
在市民论坛上，他表现得口齿伶俐、思维缜密。相较于特朗普，他行事更循规蹈矩、待人有礼且富有同理心。在经历了十年由老年男性担任总统的时代后，他的年轻形象为美国政坛带来了代际更替的可能性。
万斯拥有年轻的家庭，且有着艰苦成长经历的故事，相比特朗普在白宫和海湖庄园周围聚集的那些亿万富翁、百万富翁组成的精英圈子，他似乎更具亲和力。
这位副总统还显然真诚地尝试与现场观众建立联系，其中一名观众的妻子——士官妮可·阿莫尔在伊朗战争中阵亡，这名观众满怀悲痛地询问有关其妻子死前被指存在作战指挥失误的问题。
但在共情他人方面，万斯还远不及比尔·克林顿。作为一名仅独立竞选过一次（2022年参议院选举）就快速崛起的政客，他有时会暴露出经验不足的短板。在总统选举永不停歇的聚光灯下，这可能会成为一个问题。
几乎所有民调都显示，万斯面临的最大挑战在于解释特朗普在战争和经济领域的决策，这些政策极不受欢迎，并与选民自身的经济困境形成了直接关联。
他的回答堪称整个中期选举季的缩影。
“我承认目前油价过高。”万斯说，这比特朗普通常的表态更为坦诚，也体现了他在经济问题上更直接的言论风格。但他将油价高企归咎于伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡的说法，忽略了一个事实：这显然是特朗普发动这场可选战争的后果，而白宫似乎并未预见此事。此外，如果特朗普在发动战争前就向全国阐明伊朗绝不能拥有核武器的立场，万斯的相关警告或许会更有说服力。
在万斯将油价高企归咎于拜登之后，CBS主持人托尼·多库皮尔打断他指出：“如今距离拜登上任已近两年。在某个节点，经济就该算在现任政府头上，而不再是乔·拜登的前任政府的问题了。”
万斯还难以自圆其说：特朗普在战争初期多次宣称取得胜利，而近八个月后的现实却模糊不清。“我会说，在某些方面我们已经取得了决定性胜利，但伊朗，作为敌人，也有自己的话语权。”他说道。
这些回应似乎都无法安抚那些对特朗普政府感到愤怒的选民。周日发布的《华盛顿邮报》/ABC新闻/益普索民调显示，特朗普的支持率仅为33%，经济和伊朗战争政策的负面评价拉低了整体支持率。
选举前两周的民调无法准确预测选举结果。但共和党一直在向红色州投入大量资金，这一情况也印证了外界的普遍看法：民主党很有可能夺回众议院多数席位。不过，参议院的争夺则更为艰难。民主党需要净增四个席位才能拿下参议院多数，而此次关键选举所在的州，特朗普在2024年的选举中曾轻松获胜。
万斯并非唯一一个难以打造有力竞选说辞的人。密歇根州共和党参议院候选人迈克·罗杰斯周日在《国情咨文》节目中也展现了候选人如何艰难应对特朗普投下的阴影。
当被问及特朗普上周与俄罗斯达成的、令许多共和党人都感到震惊的绕过制裁的柴油交易时，罗杰斯回应道：“嗯，那不是我会做的选择。”他告诉CNN记者达纳·巴什，战争结束后特朗普的投资将惠及密歇根州。但他也隐晦地承认，向选民谈论长远前景目前并无太大帮助。“我接触的大多数选民都对高昂的生活成本感到沮丧，没错。谁不是呢？现在一加仑汽油都要四块多美元了。”罗杰斯说。
能源部长克里斯·赖特也未能为共和党候选人在选民对高油价的愤怒中提供多少帮助。早在今年3月，他就曾预测油价将在数周而非数月内回落。当巴什周日就此提问时，他表示：“当然，我对此并不满意，但很高兴油价确实在下降。过去几周汽油和柴油价格都有所下跌，而且还会继续下跌。”
但目前美国全国汽油均价仍为每加仑4.30美元，柴油价格更是高达每加仑6.32美元。面对如此严峻的现实，共和党除了警告如果民主党掌控国会情况会更糟之外，几乎别无他法。众议院共和党议长迈克·约翰逊在福克斯新闻的《周日展望》节目中声称，民主党的气候政策将推高油价。“我们必须让‘靠谱的人’继续掌权，掌控局面。”约翰逊说道。
但在愤怒的选民渴望变革之际，呼吁维持现状绝非易事。
除非特朗普能在未来两年内神奇地解决民众对经济负担的不满，否则任何共和党总统候选人都将面临同样的问题。
作为副总统，万斯被广泛视为特朗普最有可能的继任者。但他在CBS的节目中表示，尚未决定是否参选。“你知道，一切皆有可能，伙计。一切皆有可能。”万斯说。另一位被看好的潜在候选人、国务卿马可·卢比奥则多次表示不打算参选，并会支持万斯。
但CNN记者多尼·奥沙利文周六报道称，他在过去六个月与数百名特朗普支持者交谈后发现，他们对万斯的热情寥寥无几。他听到的最常被提及的替代人选是卢比奥。
成功的竞选活动通常都着眼于未来。因此，下一位共和党总统候选人必须描绘出比万斯在市民论坛上所提出的更具吸引力的愿景。
曾有一名小企业主问他，特朗普关于经济将迎来“黄金时代”的承诺为何未能兑现。
万斯在冗长的回应中强调了长期投资不足的问题，以及特朗普减税政策和工厂开工项目的积极潜力，最后总结道：“我第一个承认，正如这个国家不会在一届总统任期内走向衰败一样，解决问题、扭转局面也需要超过18个月的时间。”
这番表态在2028年的总统选举中恐怕难以打动选民。
Vance struggles to tame GOP struggles in 2026, and may suffer for them in 2028
2026-10-19T04:00:44.798Z / CNN
For the next two weeks, Vice President JD Vance’s job is to save Congress for Republicans.
But then he’ll turn to another political project — himself.
Vance’s 2026 closing arguments on the Iran war, high energy prices and immigration are becoming an early test of whether and how, as a 2028 presidential contender, he might handle the tumultuous legacy of his boss, President Donald Trump.
It’s not an easy task.
Vance’s performance at a CBS town hall that aired this weekend showed he’s finding it tough to navigate the grim midterm environment set by Trump’s unpopularity and policy choices. His inability to promise imminent relief on gas prices; his pleas for more time for an economy that voters hate; and his fuzziness on an end to the Iran war highlighted why the odds seem to favor Democrats two weeks out.
“Fundamentally, we are where we are,” Vance said. His comment specifically responded to Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed’s critique of Iran policy, but it also captured the helplessness of GOP candidates caught in Trump’s political undertow.
The tough questions also foreshadowed a momentous decision looming for Vance over whether to run for president in 2028. A GOP drubbing on November 3 would hand whoever becomes the president’s heir the task of reinventing the party’s message and appeal in two years — with Trump peering over their shoulder.
Vance rather gingerly grappled with how to defend Trump’s immoderate approach on key issues such as immigration that might please the MAGA base but that often seems to alienate a more general audience.
“We’re trying to strike the right balance,” Vance said when asked by a nun why Immigration and Customs Enforcement separation policies appeared to lack compassion and were traumatizing children.
And another of Vance’s flexes — blaming former President Joe Biden — figures to be an even more questionable strategy in two years than it’s proving in the midterm campaign.
Yet Vance is also an intriguing political figure.
At the town hall, he came across as articulate and intelligent. He was more conventional, courteous and empathetic than Trump. And after a decade of presidential leadership by elderly men, his youthfulness raised the possibility of a generational shift in American politics.
Vance, who has a young family and tales of a hard-knocks upbringing, seems more relatable than many in the gilded bubble of billionaires and millionaires that surrounds Trump at the White House and Mar-a-Lago.
The vice president also made apparently sincere efforts to connect with audience members, including one whose wife, Master Sgt. Nicole Amor, was killed in the Iran war and who poignantly wanted answers about what he said were operational failures before her death.
But Vance is not yet Bill Clinton when it comes to feeling others’ pain. He sometimes betrayed the clumsiness of a politician who in his lightning rise has run only a single campaign in his own right — for the Senate in 2022. This could become an issue in the always-on glare of a presidential election race.
Vance’s greatest challenges came in explaining Trump’s decisions on the war and the economy, which are deeply unpopular and have created a tangible link with voters’ own economic struggles, according to almost every opinion poll.
His answers were a study in miniature of the entire midterm season.
“I recognize that gas prices are too high right now,” Vance said, showing more candor than Trump normally does and exemplifying his more direct rhetoric on the economy in general. But his explanation that Iran had held the Strait of Hormuz hostage didn’t account for the fact that this was an obvious outcome of Trump’s war of choice that the White House seemingly failed to anticipate. And Vance’s warnings that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon might have hit home more had Trump tried to make that case to the nation before launching the war.
After Vance blamed Biden for high gasoline prices, CBS anchor Tony Dokoupil jumped in to point out: “It’s almost been two years. At a certain point, it becomes your economy, not Joe Biden’s economy.”
Vance also struggled to square Trump’s repeated declarations of victory early in the war with an opaque reality nearly eight months later. “I would say in some ways we have won decisively, but the Iranians, the enemy gets a vote here,” he said.
Neither of these answers seems likely to appease voters angry with Trump’s administration. A Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll on Sunday put the president’s approval rating at only 33%, weighed down by deeply negative perceptions of his policies on the economy and the Iran war.
Polls two weeks out cannot predict the results of elections. But Republicans have been pouring money into red states in a way that supports the perception that Democrats have a good chance to win back the House. The Senate is a tougher ask, however. Democrats would need a net gain of four seats on a tough map featuring key races in states that Trump won easily in 2024.
Vance is hardly alone in laboring to make a strong election message. Michigan Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers showed Sunday on “State of the Union” how hard it is for candidates to deal with Trump’s looming shadow.
Asked about Trump’s controversial sanctions-busting diesel deal with Russia that shocked even many Republicans last week, Rogers replied: “Well, that’s just not where I would be.” He told CNN’s Dana Bash that Trump had made investments that would benefit his state when the war ends. But he implicitly admitted that talking to voters about the long term doesn’t help much now. “Most people I talk to are frustrated with the costs, you bet. Who isn’t when you’re paying over four bucks a gallon?” Rogers said.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright had little help for Republican candidates facing voters’ wrath over high gas prices. Back in March, he predicted that it would take weeks, not months, for prices to come down. Asked about that assessment by Bash on Sunday, he said, “Of course I’m not comfortable, but I’m happy they’re coming down. They have gone down the last few weeks, as have diesel prices, and they will continue to come down.”
Drivers, however, are still paying an average of $4.30 nationally for gasoline and up to $6.32 a gallon for diesel. Handed this bleak reality, Republicans can do little but warn that things would be worse if Democrats win control of Congress. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson claimed on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures” that Democratic climate policies would raise prices. “You have to keep the grown-ups in charge, steady hands at the wheel,” Johnson argued.
But calling for continuity when angry voters want change is a tough sell.
And unless Trump somehow slays the affordability curse in the next two years, any GOP presidential candidate will confront the same issue.
Vance, as vice president, is widely seen as Trump’s likeliest successor. But he told CBS he hadn’t decided whether to go for it. “You know, anything can happen, man. Anything,” Vance said. Another supposed contender, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, has repeatedly said that he’s not planning to run and that he’d back Vance.
But CNN’s Donie O’Sullivan reported Saturday that he found little enthusiasm for Vance among a couple of hundred members of the president’s base he spoke with over the last six months. The alternative name he heard most frequently was Rubio.
Successful election campaigns are usually about the future. So the next Republican standard-bearer must conjure a vision that is more compelling than the one Vance offered in the town hall.
At one point he was asked by a small-business owner why Trump’s promise of a “golden age” for the economy hadn’t panned out.
After a lengthy reply stressing a long-term dearth of investment and the positive potential of Trump tax cuts and factory-opening projects, Vance concluded: “I’ll be the first person to tell you that just as this country wasn’t broken in one presidential term, it’s going to take more than 18 months to fix things and turn them around.”
That’s not going to cut it in 2028.