2026-10-23T21:13:00.646Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/23/politics/mike-johnson-trump-house-races
据一名熟悉双方交流的消息人士透露，在中期选举的最后冲刺阶段，众议院议长迈克·约翰逊向总统唐纳德·特朗普提出了一项关键请求。约翰逊的诉求是：能否请特朗普拨出更多资金，为众议院共和党人在当前艰难的政治环境中提供帮助？
不止约翰逊一人提出这一诉求：据多名知情人士透露，捐赠者和议员本人也一直在向特朗普的核心团队恳求，要求为关键竞选提供更多资源。《Punchbowl News》率先报道了约翰逊的请求，在该请求提出后的几天内，特朗普的政治战库就向数十场众议院竞选投入了近3000万美元，为下月的选举投入最后一搏，以帮助焦虑不安的共和党人避免失利。
但近几周来，众议院共和党人的政治形势持续恶化，共和党竞选操作人员被迫放弃以往的进攻方向，转而将精力集中在保护数十个原本安全的共和党席位上——这些席位如今意外陷入危险，涉及亚利桑那州、俄亥俄州、佛罗里达州和威斯康星州等传统共和党地盘。
数周以来，共和党高层一直对民主党试图在共和党稳赢席位上推翻共和党议员的做法嗤之以鼻，比如明尼苏达州的布拉德·芬斯塔德众议员、俄亥俄州的迈克·特纳众议员，以及科罗拉多州的杰夫·克兰克众议员。另一些议员，比如俄亥俄州的迈克·凯里众议员和亚利桑那州的伊莱·克兰，甚至根本没有进入民主党人的关注视野。
但距离选举仅剩一周多时间，多名共和党操作人员告诉CNN，如果共和党选民不来投票，人们对这些意外陷入竞争的席位上的现任议员的信心正越来越不足——共和党领导层明白，这个因素将决定民主党能否掀起真正的“蓝色浪潮”（指民主党大胜）。
“现在就是‘严阵以待’的局面，”一名参与众议院竞选的共和党操作人员告诉CNN，他指出，近期的内部民调中，竞争选区的现任议员得票率都未能超过50%。
共和党还在将资源从中期十年党派重新划分选区时为共和党量身打造的几个席位中撤出。在最后关头，众议院共和党团体及其盟友正投入数百万美元捍卫核心现任议员，试图守住传统共和党席位的壁垒。
共和党内部人士长期以来一直担心，肯塔基州、蒙大拿州、爱荷华州和亚利桑那州等地的无现任议员的开放席位命运难测。两党的操作人员告诉CNN，这些地区在过去两周对民主党的支持度有所上升。
但如今一些共和党人在现任议员的民调中看到了疲软迹象——尤其是大量未决定选民，他们担心这些选民可能会决定不投票。
约翰逊及其共和党竞选团队坚称，仍然有机会保住多数席位，并表示他们不担心那些上届选举中特朗普以双位数或更大优势获胜的地区的现任议员。但据多名知情人士透露，私下里，共和党领导层正收到各地焦虑不安的共和党议员的大量诉求，希望全国政党在最后阶段提供更多帮助。
在北卡罗来纳州，包括众议院共和党竞选负责人在内的众多现任议员正采取最后行动，争取在该州的选民投票率——全国共和党人似乎对前共和党全国委员会主席迈克尔·惠特利的参议院选举已失去希望。在得克萨斯州，共和党人担心参议院共和党提名者肯·帕克斯顿会拖累下级选举，同时担心拉丁裔选民转向民主党的迹象。
据多名共和党操作人员透露，佛罗里达州现任议员面临的恐慌可能最为严重，该州的共和党团体正投入数百万美元，帮助传统安全席位的议员，并巩固那些由本党专门重新划分以削弱民主党的席位。私下里，许多人已开始将责任归咎于州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯，指责他重新划分选区的举动，担心此举已造成资源的巨大浪费——往坏了说，就是一场政治灾难。
“德桑蒂斯的‘作弊式选区重划’（dummy-mander）应该遭到反对，”一名佛罗里达州共和党操作人员本周告诉CNN。
CNN已联系德桑蒂斯的团队征求评论。
与此同时，民主党在过去两周的民调中获得了信心。据多名操作人员告诉CNN，该党一些人现在私下里认真讨论有望赢得230个或更多席位的多数——即至少增加16个席位。该党领导层正把目光投向几周前看似遥不可及的席位，比如以顽强韧性著称的宾夕法尼亚州共和党温和派众议员布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克，他在2018年民主党掀起的上一次“蓝色浪潮”中成功连任。
菲茨帕特里克如今是共和党在最后阶段的最大资金优先级之一：根据AdImpact的数据，共和党领先的超级政治行动委员会“国会领导基金”（Congressional Leadership Fund）已预留了价值超过350万美元的广告时段，用于最后两周的竞选直至选举日。
放弃传统共和党多数进攻目标
尽管环境艰难，约翰逊及其竞选团队仍私下认为，他们仍能拿下约6个民主党席位。几乎所有这些席位都位于蓝州，共和党人认为选民更可能向当地民主党——包括国会众议员——发泄不满，而非针对特朗普和共和党。
截至9月初，特朗普的竞选资金储备总额超过4亿美元，这笔钱已成为该党的关键生命线。据AdImpact的数据，自9月初以来，特朗普旗下两家超级政治行动委员会已向众议院竞选投入超过1.5亿美元。而领先的超级政治行动委员会“国会领导基金”预计将在本次选举中投入超过2亿美元用于广告宣传。该党有充足的现金储备和捐赠者支持。
共和党对特朗普基本盘中的两个民主党选区最有信心：华盛顿州南部民主党众议员玛丽·格卢森坎普·佩雷斯的选区，以及缅因州北部的一个开放席位。新墨西哥州一个本十年已四次易手的选区仍在竞争中。
此外，还有北卡罗来纳州、得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州和俄亥俄州的约十几个席位，共和党重新划分布局后更容易推翻民主党。（几名共和党人告诉CNN，即使在不利情况下，他们仍然认为至少能拿下5个席位：北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州各1个，得克萨斯州和佛罗里达州各2个，加上田纳西州、阿拉巴马州和路易斯安那州的重新划分席位。）
“事实上，正如在全国各地为候选人奔走并筹集超过5亿美元资金所证明的那样，议长坚信共和党能够保住众议院多数席位，”约翰逊团队的一名高级成员告诉CNN。
但共和党普遍承认，在这样一个危险的选举周期中，他们的大多数传统摇摆州目标席位已遥不可及。而数亿美元的超级政治行动委员会支持正在面临不断扩大的选区地图的考验。
“资金需要转移到其他地方，”一名负责众议院竞选的共和党操作人员表示，描述该党从传统进攻席位上撤出的情况。“竞选环境和候选人素质的综合因素让他们选择了放弃。”
“国会领导基金”退出了纽约州第3选区的竞选，该选区由民主党众议员汤姆·苏齐持有，同时大幅缩减了在加利福尼亚州第13选区对抗民主党新科众议员亚当·格雷的广告投放。上届选举中格雷仅以187票优势获胜，而该选区也是民主党为对抗共和党在得克萨斯州推动选区重划的一部分。
共和党还撤出了一个他们数十年来一直梦想拿下的南得克萨斯州席位，甚至在去年的党派选区重划中专门重新划分了这个席位：得克萨斯州第28选区。民主党众议员亨利·奎利亚尔正面临知名共和党招募者韦伯县法官塔诺·蒂赫里纳带来的最激烈大选挑战。但在取消了剩余的200万美元广告时段后，“国会领导基金”在最后两周为该选区预留的广告不到10万美元。
该集团更早还放弃了两个摇摆州选区的现任议员，而这两个选区曾是两党重点目标：爱荷华州的马里安妮特·米勒-米克斯众议员（共和党已在该选区投入超过600万美元），以及新泽西州的汤姆·基恩众议员（共和党已在此投入200万美元）。
与此同时，资金正流向深红选区现任议员的防御。特朗普旗下的一个超级政治行动委员会计划在选举日之前投入超过200万美元，用于捍卫亚利桑那州第2选区的克兰，而特朗普在2024年以15个点的优势赢得了该选区。
在最后几周，共和党高层最担心的是大量开放席位——这是本选举周期有超过40名共和党议员离开众议院造成的结果。
最后几周的广告预订也反映了这种担忧。“国会领导基金”在密歇根州第10选区投入了900万美元广告，而特朗普以6.5个点的优势赢得了该选区。多个共和党团体正向南卡罗来纳州第1选区转移数百万美元，特朗普在该选区以13个点的优势获胜。而特朗普的一个超级政治行动委员会正投入超过300万美元用于蒙大拿州第1选区，他以10个点的优势赢得了该选区。
特朗普旗下的同一团体加大了对开放席位的投入，比如得克萨斯州第23选区和肯塔基州第6选区，特朗普在这两个选区都以约15个点的优势获胜。
前竞争较为激烈地区的开放席位，比如亚利桑那州第1选区和内布拉斯加州第2选区，以及北卡罗来纳州第11选区，共和党可能已无力拿下。据多名共和党操作人员透露，北卡罗来纳州第11选区的共和党领导层因道德丑闻迫使现任议员辞职。特朗普旗下的“不再退缩政治行动委员会”（No Going Back PAC）本周退出了北卡罗来纳州的这场竞选，取消了超过100万美元的计划广告，而该集团此前已投入超过400万美元用于这场竞选。
在佛罗里达州，共和党高层认为焦虑的现任议员最终会挺过去。但一些人对一场特定的竞选感到担忧——奥兰多地区的一个开放席位，丑闻缠身的众议员科里·米尔斯在夏末初选中被淘汰。
“他们应该对这场竞选感到焦虑，”正在该选区参选的中间派民主党人贝尔·道尔顿本周告诉CNN。道尔顿是前白宫幕僚长和海军上尉，他正在与前新闻主播瑞安·以利亚竞选，以利亚在夏末初选中被淘汰后，于8月正式参选。
民主党内部也存在一些对资金流向的不满。
moderate派“蓝狗联盟”（Blue Dog Coalition）政治行动委员会的成员、民主党操作人员菲尔·加德纳告诉CNN，他非常愤怒，因为全国民主党拒绝为他支持的佛罗里达州第7选区候选人道尔顿投入资金。
他抱怨称，民主党将资金用于支持佛罗里达州一个重新划分选区的席位上的现任议员，该席位极难拿下。（其他民主党人私下认为，即使米尔斯不再是他们的共和党对手，第7选区也难以翻转。）
“他们不愿做出艰难但明智的战略决策，为贝尔投入资金并承认达伦·索托赢不了……他们的决策基于党派政治，而非众议院翻转战略，”加德纳表示。
或许没有哪场竞选比佛罗里达州第25选区更能体现资金转移的最后冲刺。
该选区今年早些时候也被重新划分为有利于共和党，但民主党众议员贾里德·莫斯考维茨在经历了数百万美元的攻击广告后仍保持竞争力。
周一，特朗普旗下的“不再退缩政治行动委员会”最初取消了剩余的超过200万美元广告预订，在为这场竞选投入超过700万美元后，暂时决定不在未来投放广告。
但周四，“不再退缩政治行动委员会”戏剧性地重新加入竞争，在中期选举最后阶段的竞选时段增加了超过600万美元的广告预订。
Mike Johnson asks Trump for more midterm money as Republicans seek to avert disaster in House races
2026-10-23T21:13:00.646Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/23/politics/mike-johnson-trump-house-races
In the final sprint to the midterms, Speaker Mike Johnson went to President Donald Trump with a crucial ask, according to a person familiar with the exchange. Johnson’s message: Could Trump spare more cash to help House Republicans in this tough political climate?
He wasn’t the only one making the case: Donors and lawmakers themselves have also been pleading with Trump’s inner orbit for more resources in key races, according to multiple people familiar with the discussion. Within days of Johnson’s ask, which was first reported by Punchbowl News, Trump’s political war chest dumped nearly $30 million into dozens of House races in a final push to help a jittery Republican Party avert disaster next month.
But as political conditions have deteriorated for House Republicans in recent weeks, GOP campaign operatives have been forced to abandon places where they usually go on offense, as they focus instead on protecting dozens of unexpectedly imperiled incumbents in traditionally red turf like Arizona, Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin.
For weeks, top Republicans have dismissed what they saw as Democrats’ long-shot attempts to oust GOP lawmakers in reliably red seats, like Reps. Brad Finstad of Minnesota, Mike Turner of Ohio or Jeff Crank in Colorado. Others, like Reps. Mike Carey of Ohio or Eli Crane of Arizona, were hardly even on Democrats’ radar.
But with just over a week to go, multiple GOP operatives told CNN there is growing uncertainty about incumbents in unexpectedly competitive seats if the party base does not turn out – a factor that Republican leaders know will determine whether the Democrats can create a real blue wave.
“This is just a ‘batten down the hatches’ situation,” one GOP operative involved in House races told CNN, noting they have not seen an incumbent in a competitive district crack the 50% threshold in any recent internal polling.
The party is also shifting resources away from several seats that were redrawn to favor Republicans in the nationwide mid-decade partisan redistricting push. In the eleventh-hour, House GOP groups and their allies are pouring in millions to defend core incumbents in an attempt to hold onto a bulwark of traditionally red seats.
GOP insiders have long feared the fate of their open seats — which have no incumbent – in places like Kentucky, Montana, Iowa and Arizona. Those places have trended toward Democrats in the last two weeks, operatives in both parties told CNN.
But now some Republicans are seeing signs of weakness in their incumbents’ polling — notably, a large chunk of undecided voters, who they fear could decide to sit out the election.
Johnson and his GOP campaign operation insist there is still a path to keeping their majority, and say they aren’t concerned about incumbents in those places that Trump won by double digits or more last cycle. But privately, party leaders are hearing an earful from rattled Republican lawmakers across the map who want more help from the national party in the final stretch, according to multiple people familiar with the discussions.
In North Carolina, numerous incumbents — including the House GOP’s campaign chief — are making last-minute moves to turn out voters in a state where national Republicans already appear to have lost hope in former RNC chairman Michael Whatley’s Senate race. In Texas, Republicans worry about the downballot effects of Senate GOP nominee Ken Paxton, as well as signs of a Latino swing toward Democrats.
There is perhaps the most panic among Florida incumbents, according to multiple Republican operatives, where GOP groups are dumping millions to help members in typically safe seats and to shore up other seats their own party specifically redrew to weaken Democrats. Privately, many are already pointing the blame at Gov. Ron DeSantis for redrawing the map, fearing the move has become a massive waste of resources — and at worst, a political disaster.
“There needs to be backlash against DeSantis over his dummy-mander,” one Florida Republican operative told CNN this week.
CNN has reached out to DeSantis’ team for comment.
Democrats, meanwhile, have gained confidence from their polling over the last two weeks. Some in the party are now seriously talking privately about winning a majority of 230 or more — a pickup of at least 16 seats, numerous operatives told CNN. Party leaders are eyeing seats that seemed out of reach just weeks earlier, like that of famously resilient moderate GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania, who survived Democrats’ last blue wave in 2018.
Fitzpatrick is now one of Republicans’ biggest funding priorities in the final days: The GOP’s leading super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, has more than $3.5 million worth of ad time reserved for the race for the final two weeks through Election Day, according to data from AdImpact.
Abandoning most traditional GOP offensive targets
Even in this tough environment, Johnson and his campaign arm privately believe they can still flip a half-dozen Democrat-held seats. Nearly all are in blue states where Republicans believe voters are more likely to take out their anger on local Democrats — including their member of Congress — than Trump and the GOP.
Trump’s stockpile of campaign cash, which totaled more than $400 million entering September, has also become a crucial lifeline for the party. A pair of super PACs funded by his operation has poured more than $150 million into House races since the start of September, per AdImpact. And CLF, the leading super PAC, is projected to spend more than $200 million on ads this cycle. The party has ample cash reserves and donor support.
Republicans feel most confident about a pair of Democratic-held districts in Trump country — Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez’s in southern Washington state and an open seat in northern Maine. A seat in New Mexico that’s traded party control four times this decade also remains in contention.
Then there are the roughly dozen seats in North Carolina, Texas, Florida and Ohio where Republicans redrew boundaries to make it easier to oust Democrats. (Several Republicans told CNN that even on a bad night, they still believe they’ll pick up at least five seats: one each in North Carolina and Ohio, and two in Texas and Florida, on top of the redrawn seats in Tennessee, Alabama and Louisiana.)
“The fact is, as evidenced by crisscrossing the country on behalf of candidates and raising over a half billion dollars, the Speaker fervently believes Republicans can and will hold the House majority,” a senior member of Johnson’s team told CNN.
But Republicans widely acknowledge that most of their traditional battleground targets are out of reach in such a treacherous cycle. And hundreds of millions in super PAC support is contending with an expanding map.
“The money needed to go somewhere else,” one GOP operative who works on House races said, describing the party’s retreat from typical offensive seats. “A mix of the environment and candidate quality moved them away.”
The Congressional Leadership Fund pulled out of seats like New York’s 3rd District, held by Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, while drawing down much of its ad bookings against freshman Democratic Rep. Adam Gray in California’s 13th District. He won by just 187 votes last cycle, but his district was also redrawn as part of state Democrats’ redistricting push to counter Republicans in Texas.
Republicans also pulled money out of a South Texas seat they’ve dreamed of flipping for decades and even redrew in partisan redistricting last year: Texas’ 28th District. Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar is facing his most serious general election contest from a celebrated GOP recruit, Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina. But after canceling $2 million in remaining ad time, CLF has less than $100,000 booked there for the final two weeks.
Even earlier, the group had abandoned two incumbents in battleground districts formerly at the top of both parties’ target lists: Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, after spending more than $6 million there, and Tom Kean in New Jersey, having already invested $2 million.
Meanwhile, money is flowing to the defense of incumbents in deep red territory. One of the Trump super PACs is set to spend more than $2 million through Election Day defending Crane in Arizona’s 2nd District, which the president carried by 15 points in 2024.
In the final weeks, top Republicans are most anxious about the huge number of open seats, a result of this cycle’s exodus of more than 40 GOP lawmakers from the House.
Ad bookings for the final weeks reflect that anxiety. CLF is spending $9 million on ads in Michigan’s 10th District, which Trump won by 6.5 points. Multiple GOP groups are moving millions to South Carolina’s 1st District, which Trump won by 13 points. And one of the president’s super PACs is spending more than $3 million in Montana’s 1st District, which he won by 10 points.
The same Trump-aligned group steered more funds into open seats like Texas’ 23rd District and Kentucky’s 6th, both of which Trump won by roughly 15 points.
Open seats in previously more competitive territory, like Arizona’s 1st and Nebraska’s 2nd Districts, are likely already gone for Republicans, as well as North Carolina’s 11th District, where party leaders had to pressure their incumbent to resign after an ethics scandal, according to multiple GOP operatives. No Going Back PAC, one of the Trump groups, exited that North Carolina race this week, cutting more than $1 million in planned ads after spending more than $4 million on the contest.
In Florida, top Republicans believe their jittery incumbents will ultimately survive. But some are nervous about one race in particular — an open seat in the Orlando area where scandal-plagued Rep. Cory Mills was ousted in a late summer primary.
“They should be nervous about this race,” Bale Dalton, the centrist Democrat running in the seat, told CNN this week. Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff and Navy captain, is battling former TV anchor Ryan Elijah, who only officially entered the race in August after the late primary.
There is some grumbling among Democrats, too, over where the money is going.
One Democratic operative — Phil Gardner, who is involved with the moderate Blue Dog Coalition’s political arm — told CNN he is furious that national Democrats have refused to spend for their endorsed candidate, Dalton, in Florida’s 7th District.
He complained Democrats have spent money to back an incumbent in a redrawn Florida seat that’s extremely difficult to win. (Other Democrats privately believe the 7th District is too difficult to flip, now that Mills is no longer their GOP opponent.)
“They are unwilling to make the tough but strategic decision to spend for Bale and admit that Darren Soto is not going to win… They are making a decision driven by caucus politics and not by the strategy of flipping the House,” Gardner said.
And perhaps no race better encapsulates the late scramble to move money around than Florida’s 25th District.
The district was also redrawn to favor Republicans earlier this year, but Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz remains in contention after weathering millions in attack ads.
On Monday, the Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC initially cut more than $2 million from its remaining bookings, briefly leaving it with no future ad time after spending more than $7 million on the contest.
But on Thursday, No Going Back PAC dramatically re-entered the contest, adding more than $6 million to its bookings over the final days of the midterms.