2026-10-23T20:57:19.841Z / CNN
作者：马歇尔·科恩
3小时前发布
发布时间：美国东部时间2026年10月23日下午4:57
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10月16日，纽约，一块展示美国参议院中期选举赔率的Kalshi广告牌。
迈克尔·纳格尔/彭博社/盖蒂图片社
据CNN最新分析，随着选举日临近，2026年中期选举相关预测市场的交易额已突破14亿美元。
今年是预测行业大规模增长的一年，该领域允许人们对体育、娱乐、天气等现实世界事件进行投注。虽然小规模选举预测市场已存在一段时间，但在2024年总统选举前开始获得关注，而2026年中期选举的交易额则创下了新高。
美国最大预测市场公司Kalshi的一位发言人表示，该公司与中期选举相关市场的交易额已接近11亿美元，其中涵盖单场选举结果、选民投票率、知名人士背书、候选人是否进行辩论、竞选集会上的发言内容等各类相关市场。
其竞争对手Polymarket的一位发言人告诉CNN，该公司与中期选举相关市场的交易额已超过3.4亿美元，其中包括在Polymarket面向美国用户的平台以及受国际用户欢迎的境外网站上产生的交易。
“这个规模相当可观，”预测市场行业专家、预测市场通讯撰稿人达斯汀·古克表示，“虽然仍远不及体育和加密货币市场，但这笔交易规模已经很大，而且具有重要价值。它是一个有意义的信号，能够提供综合民调和公众情绪的概率数据。”
古克表示，预计选举日当天交易额将大幅攀升，因为专业投注者会趁着全国投票结束、市场出现剧烈波动时获利。
不过，与赌博类似，大多数在预测市场交易的人都会亏损。
这场预测热潮已对美国政治文化造成冲击，竞选幕僚和捐助者都对选举赔率十分关注。联邦监管机构已承诺打击与中期选举相关的内幕交易，而Kalshi已经暂停了6名2026年候选人的资格，原因是他们对自己参与的选举进行不当投注。
交易额并不代表某一特定市场的投注金额，这些数据统计的是市场关闭前的整体经济活动规模。
CNN与Kalshi存在合作关系，并使用其数据报道重大事件。但CNN的编辑人员不被允许在预测市场进行交易。
“完全是全新的局面”
自称“首创政治预测市场”的PredictIt自2014年就已存在。该公司拒绝提供2026年中期选举交易额的具体数字，但联合创始人约翰·亚里士多德·菲利普斯表示，由于监管环境友好，该公司的业务一直在增长。
拜登政府曾对PredictIt采取行动，并在2024年试图关闭选举预测市场。但PredictIt在法院胜诉，其他联邦法院也裁定选举预测市场符合联邦法律规定。此后，特朗普政府对该行业持支持态度，目前正在制定保护选举预测市场的新规。
“人们对信息有强烈需求，”菲利普斯表示，“一旦美国人如何用自己的钱进行预测的法律途径变得清晰，我认为这对所有人来说都是好事。”
较小的类似公司也业务增长，一些正试图在2028年总统选举前进入美国市场，而该选举已经吸引了大量投注。
Interactive Brokers旗下的ForecastEx的一位发言人告诉CNN，该公司与中期选举相关市场的交易额已超过640万美元。
总部位于英国的预测市场Smarkets在其英国用户中产生的中期选举相关交易额约为20万美元，目前正寻求特朗普政府的监管批准，以进入美国市场。
“这完全是全新的局面，”Smarkets创始人杰森·特罗斯特表示，“今年的情况不同，因为它是合法且广泛可用的。预测市场中的大部分资金都投向体育领域，小部分投向选举领域，但你可以从中获得大量有趣的数据。”
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More than $1.4 billion has been traded on prediction markets for the 2026 midterms
2026-10-23T20:57:19.841Z / CNN
By Marshall Cohen
3 hr ago
PUBLISHED Oct 23, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
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A Kalshi billboard displaying US Senate midterm election odds in New York, on Friday, October 16.
Michael Nagle/Bloomberg/Getty Images
Prediction markets about the 2026 midterm elections have surpassed $1.4 billion in trading volume as Election Day fast approaches, according to a new CNN analysis.
This year has seen massive growth in the prediction industry, where people can bet on real-world events like sports, entertainment and the weather. While small-scale election markets have been around for a while, they gained traction before the 2024 presidential election and have seen huge numbers for the 2026 midterms.
Kalshi, the biggest US prediction company, has seen nearly $1.1 billion in trading volume on markets related to the midterms, according to a spokesperson. This includes markets about individual race outcomes, turnout numbers, prominent endorsements, whether candidates will debate, what will be said at campaign rallies and much more.
Its rival Polymarket has seen more than $340 million in trading volume on midterm-related markets, a spokesperson told CNN. This includes trading on Polymarket’s US-facing platform as well as its offshore site that’s popular with international users.
“It’s sizable,” said Dustin Gouker, an industry expert who writes a newsletter about prediction markets. “It’s still much less than sports and crypto markets, but it’s a lot of trading. And it’s valuable. It’s a meaningful signal that provides probabilities that aggregate polls and public sentiment.”
Gouker said trading is expected to significantly ramp up on Election Day, as professional bettors try to cash in on volatile changes in the markets while polls close across the country.
Still, as with gambling, most people who trade on prediction markets lose money.
The prediction frenzy has scrambled US political culture,with campaign staffers and donors obsessing over the odds. Federal regulators have pledged to crack downon insider trading related to the midterms, and Kalshi has already suspended six 2026 candidatesfor improperly betting on their own races.
Trading volume does not measure how much money has been wagered on a specific market. These figures capture the overall economic activity, in terms of how much money has changed hands before the market have been closed.
CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. But CNN editorial employees aren’t allowed to trade on prediction markets.
‘A completely new ball game’
PredictIt, which bills itself as the “original political prediction market,” has been around since 2014. The company declined to provide dollar figures for its 2026 midterms trading volume, but co-founder John Aristotle Phillips said business has been growing because of the favorable regulatory climate.
The Biden administration took action against PredictIt and separately tried to shut down election markets in 2024. But PredictIt prevailed in court, and other federal courts ruledthat election markets are permissible under federal law. The Trump administration has since embracedthe industry and is finalizingnew rules that protect election markets.
“There’s a hunger for information,” Phillips said. “Once the legal pathway is clear, as to how Americans can be allowed to spend a little bit of their own money to make forecasts, I think that’s going to be a good thing for everybody.”
Smaller companies are similarly seeing a boost, and some are trying to enter the US market before the 2028 presidential election, which has already drawn major betting.
ForecastEx, which is owned by Interactive Brokers, has seen more than $6.4 million in trading volume in markets about the midterms, a spokesman told CNN.
A UK-based prediction market, Smarkets, has seen about $200,000 in trading about the midterms among its British customers. It’s currently in the process of securing regulatory approval from the Trump administration to operate in the United States.
“It’s a completely new ball game,” Smarkets founder Jason Trost said. “It’s different this year because it’s legal and it’s widely available. Most of the money in prediction markets is sports. A small sliver is elections. But there’s a lot of interesting data you can get out of it.”
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