2026-09-04T10:07:09.663Z / reuters.com
得克萨斯州比维尔9月4日电（路透社）——巴伦西亚·马西亚斯桌上的化妆品和玩具都是人们在折扣店随手买下的商品。但在得州南部一个闷热的夏日，她正试图卖掉这些东西换点汽油钱、 groceries钱、学生贷款钱：总之是什么钱都行。
带着三个年幼的孩子，白天做医疗助理，晚上还要上护理课程，这位26岁的年轻人几乎没有时间关注政治。但当得州官员取消了她所在的乔治韦斯特小镇唯一的课后项目资金时，政治变得再也无法忽视。
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随后，一段TikTok视频出现了：屏幕上一位墨西哥裔女性吉娜·伊诺霍萨谈论着高生活成本和得州公立教育急需的投入。马西亚斯停下了刷手机的动作。
“现在一切都越来越贵，汽油和其他东西也是，维持生计真的很难，”马西亚斯说。看到一位和她长得一样的母亲，马西亚斯下定决心：“百分百，她会得到我的选票。”
伊诺霍萨是得州民主党州议员，她正试图结束定义了得州政坛一代人的选举荒：自1994年以来，没有民主党人在得州赢得过全州公职。
她的战略核心是说服像马西亚斯这样的拉美裔选民，认为生活成本上涨和紧张的公立学校资源比近年来许多拉美裔选民转向共和党所关注的文化和移民问题更重要。
伊诺霍萨表示，这意味着要摒弃将拉美裔选民视为拥有独立优先事项的独特政治群体的倾向。相反，她认为拉美裔选民的动机与其他得州人一样，包括住房成本、学校教育和日常开支。因此，她的竞选团队用西班牙语向拉美裔受众传递这一信息。
“我们和其他人一样，都是得州人和美国人，”她在奥斯汀接受采访时说。“拉美裔和这个国家各地以及得州的家庭一样，正感受到巨大的经济压力。”
她的竞选活动旨在检验民主党能否通过强调民生问题重新赢得拉美裔选民的支持。
这场考验在于，民主党能否克服共和党州长格雷格·阿博特在过去12年任期内建立的政治机器。
阿博特拥有知名度、前总统唐纳德·特朗普的背书，以及遍布得州以外的庞大支持网络。最新的竞选财务报告显示，他在2月至7月期间筹集了约2550万美元，而伊诺霍萨筹集了约600万美元。阿博特的手头现金优势超过22比1，他拥有6720万美元，而伊诺霍萨仅有300万美元。
阿博特多年来一直在得州南部培育支持基础，定期走访拉美裔人口众多的边境社区，在里奥格兰德河谷建立了广泛的现场运营机构，并将边境安全作为其外联工作的核心。
他在移民、公共安全和经济等问题上持续争取西班牙裔选民的支持，随后共和党取得了进展。
伊诺霍萨押注特朗普及其领导的政党支持率的大幅下滑将帮助她获胜。全州民调全年都 consistently显示她与阿博特的差距很小，具备获胜潜力。
强大的在任者
在这个倾向共和党的州，阿博特仍然被看好获胜。伊诺霍萨必须打破共和党在该州长职位上持续三十年的执政记录。为了继续掌权，阿博特采用了共和党竞选策略，将伊诺霍萨描绘成与他的法律与秩序议程格格不入的人。
“阿博特州长不会理所当然地认为任何选民——包括拉美裔选民——会支持他，这就是为什么他投入大量时间和资源在每个社区争取选票，”阿博特的竞选新闻秘书爱德华多·莱尔在给路透社的一份声明中说。
近期民调显示拉美裔选民更支持伊诺霍萨而非阿博特。2026年8月的爱默生学院民调/Nexstar调查发现，拉美裔选民以17个百分点的优势支持伊诺霍萨，并有57%的人不认可阿博特的执政表现。同一项针对1000名可能选民的全州民调显示，阿博特以49%比45%的支持率总体领先伊诺霍萨，误差幅度为3个百分点。
阿博特近期发布了一项“负担能力议程”——包括削减财产税、住房改革、降低电费、扩大低成本健康保险、将某些处方药的月费上限定为25美元，以及更多举措。他的竞选团队表示，这些措施将帮助得州人抵消生活成本上涨带来的压力。
“拉美裔选民关心的问题与所有得州人一样：全面改革财产税制度、保障边境安全、将危险罪犯绳之以法，并保持得州的负担能力，”莱尔说。
28岁的塞缪尔·阿圭罗是一名海军退伍军人，2024年曾投票给特朗普。但作为两个女儿的单身父亲，他最关心的问题是教育——他表示比维尔的公立学校需要更多州级资源，如果伊诺霍萨能就改善教育提出具体方案，他可能会转而支持她。
“我们必须在学校设定更高的标准，”他说。“教师的工资应该大幅提高，真的要大幅提高很多。”
数据层面
伊诺霍萨可能会受益于此前贝托·奥罗克和其他全州民主党候选人未能抓住的选举顺风。
人口趋势强化了民主党人长期以来的信念：得州不断增长的拉美裔选民群体最终可能重塑全州政治格局。目前得州约有650万有资格投票的拉美裔选民，比阿博特上次连任竞选前的几年多出约100万。
但伊诺霍萨竞选活动的关键在于实际有多少人会出来投票。3月份的民主党和共和党初选共有近450万得州人投票，创下近期中期选举纪录。
由总检察长肯·帕克斯顿和州议员詹姆斯·塔拉里科参与的备受瞩目的参议院初选推动的创纪录投票率，可能为得州带来罕见的竞选势头迹象——该州的选民投票率历来低于全国平均水平。
尽管如此，像54岁的唐·巴拉扎这样的选民还是希望“改变”。巴拉扎是得克萨斯州维多利亚市的一名八年级教师，她在比维尔的每月户外市场上表示，她的家庭经济状况还不错，但得州南部拉美裔群体中明显存在不满情绪，认为共和党没有解决他们的问题。
“他们需要站出来为我们这里的人民说话；现在是时候让每个人都意识到，我们不会离开这里，”她说。
大卫·胡德-纽尼奥报道；凯特·斯塔福德和阿利斯泰尔·贝尔编辑
Latino voter backlash puts Texas governor’s race on Democrats’ midterm map
2026-09-04T10:07:09.663Z / reuters.com
BEEVILLE, Texas, Sept 4 (Reuters) – The makeup and toys on Valencia Macias’ table are items people buy on impulse at discount stores. But on a sweltering summer day in South Texas, she is trying to sell them to turn them into gas money, grocery money, student loan money: any kind of money.
With three young children, a job as a medical assistant and nursing classes at night, the 26-year-old has little time for politics. But when Texas officials withdrew funding for the only after-school program available in her rural town of George West, politics became impossible to ignore.
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Then, a TikTok video appeared: A Mexican American woman on the screen, Gina Hinojosa, talked about the high cost of living and badly needed investments in Texas public education. Macias stopped scrolling.
“With everything just getting so expensive and the gas and everything, it’s really hard to just make do,” Macias said. Seeing a mother and a woman who looks like her, Macias made up her mind: “100%, she has my vote.”
Hinojosa, a Democratic state representative, is trying to end an electoral drought that has defined Texas politics for a generation: no Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994.
Her strategy hinges on persuading Latino voters like Macias that rising costs and strained public schools matter more than the cultural and immigration issues that have pulled many Latino voters toward Republicans in recent years.
Hinojosa said that means resisting the tendency to treat Latino voters as a distinct political constituency with separate priorities. Instead, she argues they are motivated by the same concerns as other Texans, including housing costs, schools and day-to-day expenses. So, her campaign delivers that message in Spanish to Latino audiences.
“We are as Texan and American as anyone,” she said in an interview in Austin. “Latinos are feeling the economic strain just like families all across this country and in Texas in a big way.”
Her campaign tests whether Democrats can regain support among Latino voters by emphasizing pocketbook issues.
The test is whether it can overcome the political machine Republican Governor Greg Abbott has built over the last 12 years in office.
He has name recognition, President Donald Trump’s endorsement and a vast support network that stretches beyond Texas. He has raised roughly $25.5 million between February and July, while Hinojosa raised about $6 million. Abbott holds more than a 22-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage, with $67.2 million to Hinojosa’s $3 million, the latest campaign finance reports show.
Abbott spent years cultivating support in South Texas, regularly visiting heavily Latino border communities, building an extensive field operation in the Rio Grande Valley and making border security a centerpiece of his outreach.
Republican gains followed his sustained efforts to compete for Hispanic voters on issues including immigration, public safety and the economy.
Hinojosa’s betting that the sharp drop in support for Trump and the party he leads will lead her to victory. State polls have consistently shown she’s within striking distance of Abbott all year.
FORMIDABLE INCUMBENT
Abbott is still favored to win in the Republican-leaning state. Hinojosa would have to break the three-decade Republican streak in the office. To stay in power, Abbott has turned to a Republican playbook portraying Hinojosa as out of step with his law-and-order agenda on the campaign trail.
“Governor Abbott is not taking the support of any voter — including Latino voters — for granted, which is why he is investing significant time and resources to earn votes in every community,” Abbott’s campaign press secretary Eduardo Leal said in a statement to Reuters.
Recent polling suggests Latino voters favor Hinojosa over Abbott. An August 2026 Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey found Hispanic voters favored Hinojosa over Abbott by 17 percentage points and that 57% disapproved of Abbott’s job performance. That same statewide poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters, showed Abbott leading Hinojosa 49% to 45% overall, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Abbott recently released an “affordability agenda” — including property tax cuts, housing reforms, lower electricity costs, expanded low-cost health insurance, a $25-a-month cap on certain prescription drugs, and more. His campaign says the measures will help Texans offset rising living expenses.
“Latino voters care about the same issues that are important to all Texans: overhauling the property tax system, securing the border, putting dangerous criminals behind bars, and keeping Texas affordable,” Leal said.
Samuel Aguero, 28, a Navy veteran, voted for Trump in 2024. But as a single father of two daughters, his top issue is education — he says Beeville’s public schools need more state resources, and if Hinojosa offers specifics on improving them, he may back her instead.
“We have to have higher standards in school,” he said. “Teachers should be paid a lot more, like, a heck of a lot more.”
NUMBERS
Hinojosa may benefit from electoral tailwinds that eluded Beto O’Rourke and other statewide Democratic candidates before her.
Demographic trends have strengthened Democrats’ long-held belief that Texas’ growing Latino electorate could eventually reshape statewide politics. Texas now has about 6.5 million Latino eligible voters, roughly 1 million more than in the years leading up to Abbott’s last reelection campaign.
But the key to Hinojosa’s campaign is how many people actually turn out to vote. Nearly 4.5 million Texans voted in the Democratic and Republican primary elections in March, a recent midterm record.
Record participation, fueled by the high-profile Senate primary battles involving Attorney General Ken Paxton and State Representative James Talarico, could offer Democrats a rare sign of momentum in a state where voter turnout has historically trailed the national average.
Still, voters like Dawn Barraza, 54, an eighth-grade schoolteacher in Victoria, Texas, want “change.” At a monthly outdoor market in Beeville, Barraza said her family fares okay financially, but there’s palpable frustration among Latinos in South Texas that Republicans are not addressing.
“They need to be standing up for our people here; it’s high time everybody realizes that we’re not going anywhere,” she said.
Reporting by David Hood-Nuño; Editing by Kat Stafford and Alistair Bell