2026-08-04T09:00:25.796Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/04/politics/michigan-missouri-kansas-primaries-what-to-watch
密歇根州民主党人将于周二决出一场参议院初选，这场选举已成为今年对民主党走向最具分量的考验——它将衡量今年春夏在深蓝选区推翻建制派人物和现任议员的进步派起义，是否会蔓延至美国最大的政治摇摆州之一。
进步派候选人、前公共卫生官员阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德与立场更温和的众议员黑利·史蒂文斯将展开角逐，胜者将挑战共和党前众议员迈克·罗杰斯。这场初选的影响将延伸至2028年，让潜在总统候选人得以窥见民主党选民在密歇根州的诉求，而密歇根州很可能是民主党提名日程中最早进行投票的六个州之一，也是大选的必争之地。
但最重要的是，周二的选举结果对民主党能否拿下11月参议院多数党地位所需的4个席位意味着什么。华盛顿的民主党建制派认为，史蒂文斯最有能力将退休参议员加里·彼得斯的席位留在民主党手中。但如果埃尔赛义德获胜，长期以来坚持其路线能够组建新联盟的进步派将有机会证明这一点。
编者注： 周二晚9点ET起，跟随约翰·金来到CNN的“魔法墙”直播间，他将拆解初选选举结果并实时解答观众问题。
这场初选是周二堪萨斯州、密歇根州、密苏里州、弗吉尼亚州和华盛顿州初选 ballot 上多场备受瞩目的角逐之一。
在密歇根州和密苏里州，民主社会主义者将试图推翻另外两名现任众议院民主党议员。在堪萨斯州，该党可能提名一位筹款记录短暂却亮眼的牧师参与胜算渺茫的参议院竞选。
周二的选举还将决出堪萨斯州和密歇根州的开放州长初选，两州的竞选在11月都可能颇具竞争力。
而在弗吉尼亚州，在州最高法院推翻原本有望帮助民主党赢得更多席位的国会选区地图后，民主党将着手争取翻转多达三个席位。
以下是周二初选值得关注的关键赛事：
历经多场初选战，民主党在意识形态和 electability（参选可行性）上的明显分歧已清晰呈现，而周二密歇根州的这场对决或许是其中规模最大的一场。
预计选民群体的分化将与前两届民主党总统初选相似。埃尔赛义德的竞选团队认为，他将获得推动佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯在2016年密歇根州初选中获胜的同一批选民支持：白人进步派和年轻选民。而史蒂文斯的支持群体预计将帮助希拉里·克林顿和乔·拜登在过去两次选举中最终击败桑德斯赢得提名的联盟：老年选民，尤其是底特律及其周边地区的黑人选民。
埃尔赛义德强调他反对以色列在哈马斯2023年10月7日袭击后的加沙战争，支持扩大医疗保险覆盖所有美国人以取代私人健康保险，以及拒绝政治中的企业资金。史蒂文斯则以曾在奥巴马政府汽车行业救助计划中担任要职为卖点，自称是11月大选最具参选可行性的候选人，称自己是专注于民生议题的“实干马”，而埃尔赛义德是抱有更大政治野心的“表演马”。
要理解密歇根州参议院初选对民主党整体走向的重要性，不妨看看涌入密歇根州电视广告的外部支出规模——几乎所有支出都旨在支持史蒂文斯、打击埃尔赛义德。
最大的支出方是美国以色列公共事务委员会，该委员会通过超级政治行动委员会“联合民主项目”投入近3200万美元用于电视广告，意图击败埃尔赛义德。
综合来看，外部支出对史蒂文斯的支持优势约为30比1：6220万美元支持史蒂文斯，仅有210万美元与埃尔赛义德相关。
在密歇根州另一场焦点初选赛事中，众议员什里·塔内达尔可能成为下一位被民主社会主义挑战者击败的寻求连任的民主党议员，他的对手是州众议员多诺万·麦金尼。
但不仅仅是包括桑德斯在内的进步派在为麦金尼造势。71岁的塔内达尔是印度裔美国移民，他的选区以底特律多数黑人选民为核心，国会黑人核心小组成员在第13选区初选中立场分裂，其中多人背书麦金尼。
随着塔内达尔寻求第三个任期，他已不再拥有过去助力他的政治优势：多名黑人候选人组成的初选阵营分散了选票。塔内达尔去年还因发起弹劾特朗普的非常规行动激怒了一些民主党人。
这场初选的独特背景意味着，它可能不会像纽约州和科罗拉多州民主社会主义者推翻现任议员的其他初选那样，承载有关民主党走向的同等广泛意义。
作为衡量民主党走向的更相关指标，或许是密歇根州第7选区这场摇摆选区的角逐。该选区位于兰辛地区，党内一些人担忧进步派活动家威廉·劳伦斯获胜可能会损害本党击败共和党新任众议员汤姆·巴雷特的机会。
这位气候活动组织“日出运动”的联合创始人将在三方初选中对阵前美国驻乌克兰大使布里奇特·布林克和前海军海豹突击队队员马特·马斯达姆。许多民主党人担心温和派选票会在布林克和马斯达姆之间分散。
编者注： 周三上午10:30 ET起，加入CNN的卡西·亨特和大卫·查利安直播间，他们将在直播互动问答中解答订阅者有关中期选举的问题。
《赫芬顿邮报》7月报道称，劳伦斯在2024年的一档播客中曾表示，黑人政治领导人对民主党领导层的支持“削弱了白人左翼的力量”，此事引发争议。他随后为这些言论道歉。
他得到了包括桑德斯、密歇根州众议员拉希达·特莱布和加利福尼亚州众议员罗·卡纳在内的多位知名进步派人士的支持。但曾与劳伦斯和埃尔赛义德一同出现在集会舞台上的纽约州众议员亚历山德里亚·奥卡西奥-科特兹，并未明确表态支持这场初选的任何一方。
堪萨斯州在过去十年中曾多次给民主党带来意外胜利。两届州长劳拉·凯利曾两次在这个红色州击败共和党候选人。而在美国最高法院推翻罗伊诉韦德案判决后，2022年该州选民以压倒性优势否决了一项声称宪法未赋予堕胎权的修正案。
民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿正在争夺提名，以挑战共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔，他正试图带来最新的一次意外胜利，并提升民主党在11月翻转参议院多数席位的机会。
汉密尔顿是堪萨斯城大型教会“联合卫理公会复活教堂”的创始牧师，他将自己定位为拒绝极端党派偏见的桥梁构建者。但首先，他需要在周二的初选中击败其他10名民主党候选人。
到目前为止，他已被证明是民主党初选阵营中筹款最多的候选人，在竞选最初几个月筹集了410万美元，截至7月中旬仍有超过170万美元的竞选资金结余。
民主党想要翻转至少4个共和党掌控的参议院席位，需要在传统红色州取得胜利。北卡罗来纳州和缅因州是该党的首要目标，也是对民主党最有利的战场。但他们还需要在阿拉斯加、俄亥俄州、艾奥瓦州、得克萨斯州甚至胜算渺茫的堪萨斯州等州中拿下若干席位，才能赢得参议院多数党地位。
科里·布什是另一位可能在初选中击败民主党现任议员韦斯利·贝尔的民主社会主义者。
但他们的角逐有其自身背景：布什此前曾持有该席位。她在2020年初选中击败前众议员威廉·莱西·克莱，并在华盛顿的两届任期内加入了进步派“ Squad”（国会进步党团）。2024年，受益于来自与AIPAC关联的超级政治行动委员会的大量外部支出，贝尔在这个以圣路易斯为中心的深蓝选区击败了布什。
密苏里州第1选区初选是另一场检验民主党初选选民诉求的测试：是吹捧与该州压倒性共和党代表团合作经历的温和派，还是更习惯利用舆论平台的激进进步派。
这也是又一场将以色列坚定盟友贝尔与加沙行动批评者布什对立起来的竞选。与2024年一样，AIPAC投入巨资支持贝尔，超级政治行动委员会“联合民主项目”为这场竞选投入了超过300万美元。
民主党角逐堪萨斯州和密歇根州州长席位
周二举行初选的两个州——堪萨斯州和密歇根州——今年都将举行州长选举，两州的竞选在11月都可能颇具竞争力。
堪萨斯州的初选更为引人关注且竞争激烈。
在民主党阵营方面，州参议员伊森·科森得到任期将满的州长凯利背书，并承诺将以类似方式跨越党派界限合作。州参议员辛迪·霍尔舍承诺采取更具对抗性的民粹主义风格，直接抨击共和党人，但一些人担心这在红色的堪萨斯州并非成功之道。
在共和党阵营方面，州参议院议长泰·马斯特森获得了特朗普的关键背书，在包括国务卿斯科特·施瓦布和保险专员维基·施密特在内的拥挤候选人阵营中似乎占据优势。但他近期正面临针对其过往支持数据中心建设的攻击。
在密歇根州，国务卿乔斯林·本森是赢得民主党提名的大热门，如果她能接替任期将满的州长格蕾琴·惠特默，还可能打造出全国知名度。
在共和党阵营方面，获得特朗普背书的众议员约翰·詹姆斯正试图击退前长期总统竞选候选人佩里·约翰逊资金充裕的竞选活动。
5月，弗吉尼亚州最高法院推翻了经选民批准的新国会选区地图，这对民主党夺回众议院多数席位的努力造成重大打击。
该地图原本有望增加多达4个对民主党友好的新席位，并帮助该党抵消共和党在其他州划定的新共和党选区的影响。
但得益于多个潜在的席位翻转机会，弗吉尼亚州对民主党2026年的席位算数仍然非常重要。
第1和第2选区显然是他们最有把握的目标，而在第5选区他们也有一线机会。
周二这些选区中最重要的初选之一，是民主党候选人角逐以挑战共和党众议员罗布·威特曼的第1选区初选。亨里科县检察官香农·泰勒面临包括律师萨拉姆·巴蒂在内的拥挤候选人阵营，但她基本锁定了主要背书。
另外两场初选则是前民主党国会议员的卷土重来之战。伊莱恩·卢里亚有望对阵众议员詹·基根斯，而汤姆·佩里洛寻求对阵众议员约翰·麦圭尔。
What to watch in Michigan’s Democratic Senate showdown and other key races in Tuesday’s primaries
2026-08-04T09:00:25.796Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/04/politics/michigan-missouri-kansas-primaries-what-to-watch
Michigan Democrats on Tuesday will settle a Senate primary that has emerged as the most significant test of the party’s direction this year — one that will gauge whether the progressive insurgency that has toppled establishment figures and incumbents on deep blue turf all spring and summer extends into one of the nation’s biggest political battlegrounds.
Progressive former public health official Abdul El-Sayed faces the more moderate Rep. Haley Stevens in the race to take on Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers. The race has implications that extend into 2028, offering prospective presidential candidates a glimpse at what the party’s electorate wants in Michigan, likely to be one of the first six states to vote in the Democratic nominating calendar and a must-win in the general election.
Most important, though, is what Tuesday’s outcome means for Democrats’ chances of netting the four-seat gain they need to take the Senate majority in November. The Democratic establishment in Washington believes Stevens is best-positioned to keep the seat of retiring Sen. Gary Peters in the party’s hands. But if El-Sayed wins, progressives who have long maintained that their approach can build a new coalition will have their chance to prove it.
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The race is one of several high-profile contests on the ballot Tuesday in primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington state.
In Michigan and Missouri, democratic socialists will look to unseat two more incumbent House Democrats. In Kansas, the party could nominate a pastor with a short but prolific fundraising record in a long-shot Senate contest.
Tuesday’s races will also settle open gubernatorial primaries in Kansas and Michigan, both of which could be competitive in November.
And in Virginia, Democrats will set about trying to flip as many as three seats, after the state Supreme Court invalidated a congressional map that could have given them a better chance at winning four.
Here are the key races to watch in Tuesday’s primaries:
After a season of primary battles that brought into clear view the Democratic Party’s clear divides over ideology and electability, Tuesday’s showdown in Michigan might be the biggest of all.
The electorate is expected to break down along lines similar to the last two Democratic presidential primaries. El-Sayed’s campaign believes he will be strongest with the same voters who propelled Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders to a win in the 2016 Michigan primary: White progressives and young voters. Stevens’ support is expected to come from the coalition that helped Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden ultimately defeat Sanders for the party’s nomination those last two elections: Older voters and particularly Black voters in and around Detroit.
El-Sayed has highlighted his opposition to Israel’s war in Gaza following Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attacks, his support for expanding Medicare to cover all Americans in place of private health insurance and his rejection of corporate money in politics. Touting her role staffing the Obama administration’s bailout of the automotive industry, Stevens pitches herself as the most electable candidate in November, calling herself a “workhorse” focused on pocketbook issues and El-Sayed a “show horse” with larger political ambitions.
One way to understand the importance of the Michigan Senate primary to the overall trajectory of the Democratic Party is to examine how much outside spending flooded Michigan’s airwaves — nearly all of it intended to bolster Stevens and dent El-Sayed.
The biggest spender was the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which pumped nearly $32 million into television advertising intended to defeat El-Sayed via the super PAC United Democracy Project.
Combined, outside spending benefited Stevens over El-Sayed by about a 30-1 margin — with $62.2 million supporting Stevens and $2.1 million aligned with El-Sayed.
In another marquee Michigan race, Rep. Shri Thanedar could become the next Democrat to lose his reelection bid to a democratic socialist challenger as he faces off with state Rep. Donavan McKinney.
But it’s not just progressives, including Sanders, who are rallying behind McKinney. Thanedar, 71, is an Indian American immigrant who represents a seat centered on majority-Black Detroit, and members of the Congressional Black Caucus have split on the 13th District primary — with several endorsing McKinney.
As Thanedar seeks a third term, he doesn’t have the political edge that has helped him in the past: A primary field of Black candidates who fractured the vote in several directions. Thanedar also angered some Democrats by pursuing a rogue effort to impeach Trump last year.
The unique dynamics of this race mean it might not carry the same broader implications about the direction of the Democratic Party as other primaries in which democratic socialists toppled incumbents in New York and Colorado.
Potentially more relevant as a gauge of the direction of the Democratic Party is Michigan’s battleground 7th District, a Lansing-area seat where some in the party are anxious that a win by progressive activist William Lawrence could damage the party’s chances of ousting freshman Republican Rep. Tom Barrett.
The co-founder of the climate activist group the Sunrise Movement faces former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink and former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam in the three-way primary. Many Democrats fear that moderate votes will be split between Brink and Maasdam.
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Lawrence ignited controversy when The Huffington Post in July reported that he’d said on a 2024 podcast that Black political leaders’ support for Democratic leadership “defangs the White left.” He has since apologized for those remarks.
He is supported by a number of prominent progressives, including Sanders, Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib and California Rep. Ro Khanna. But New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who appeared on-stage at a rally that included Lawrence and El-Sayed, notably did not wade into the race.
Kansas has a history of delivering Democrats surprise victories within the last decade. Two-term Gov. Laura Kelly twice beat Republicans in the red state. And in the immediate wake of the US Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, voters in 2022 overwhelmingly rejected an amendment that said there was no constitutional right to abortion in the state.
Adam Hamilton, a Democrat vying for the nomination to take on Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, is seeking to deliver the latest of those surprises — and improve Democrats’ chances of flipping the Senate in November.
Hamilton, the founding pastor at United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, a megachurch in Kansas City, is pitching himself as a bridge-builder who would reject overt partisanship. First, though, he needs to defeat 10 other Democrats in Tuesday’s primary.
So far, he has proven to be the most prolific fundraiser in the Democratic field, raising $4.1 million in the first few months of his campaign with more than $1.7 million in the bank as of mid-July.
The Democratic effort to flip at least four GOP-held Senate seats will require the party to win in traditionally red states. North Carolina and Maine are among the party’s top targets, and the most favorable to Democrats. But they’ll also need some mix of Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, Texas or even a longer-shot like Kansas to prove competitive in order to win the majority.
Cori Bush is another democratic socialist who could unseat a Democratic incumbent — Rep. Wesley Bell — in a primary.
But their contest has its own dynamics: Bush has held the seat before. She ousted former Rep. William Lacy Clay in a 2020 primary and went on to join the progressive “Squad” during her two terms in Washington. Bell, bolstered by heavy outside spending from an AIPAC-linked super PAC, defeated Bush in the deep-blue, St. Louis-based district in 2024.
The Missouri 1st District primary is another test of what Democratic primary voters are looking for: a moderate who touts his work with the state’s overwhelmingly Republican delegation, or a progressive brawler more comfortable using the bully pulpit.
It’s also another race that pits a staunch ally of Israel in Bell against a critic of its actions in Gaza in Bush. Like 2024, AIPAC has spent heavily to bolster Bell, with the United Democracy Project super PAC pumping more than $3 million into the race.
Democrats vie to hold onto governor’s seats in Kansas and Michigan
Two states holding primaries on Tuesday — Kansas and Michigan — feature governor’s races this year, and both could be competitive come November.
Kansas has the more interesting and competitive primaries.
On the Democratic side, state Sen. Ethan Corson is backed by term-limited Gov. Kelly and vowing to work across the aisle in a similar fashion. State Sen. Cindy Holscher is promising a more combative, populist style taking Republicans head-on, but some fear that’s not a recipe for success in red Kansas.
On the GOP side, state Senate President Ty Masterson has the crucial Trump endorsement and would seem the favorite in a crowded field featuring, among others, Secretary of State Scott Schwab and Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt. But he’s dealing with some late attacks on his past support for data center construction.
In Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is a heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination and could build a national profile if she succeeds term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
On the GOP side, Trump-backed Rep. John James is trying to fend off the well-funded campaign of former long-shot presidential candidate Perry Johnson.
Democrats suffered a major setback in their quest to win back the House in May, when the Virginia Supreme Court struck down a new congressional map that had been approved by voters.
The map promised to add as many as four new Democratic-friendly seats and help the party offset new GOP districts that Republicans had drawn in other states.
But Virginia remains very important to Democrats’ majority math in 2026, thanks to a number of potential pickups.
The 1st and 2nd Districts are clearly their best shots, while they could have an outside shot in the 5th.
Perhaps the one big primary in these districts Tuesday is the Democratic race to face GOP Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st. Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor faces a crowded field that includes lawyer Salaam Bhatti, but she has largely locked down the major endorsements.
The other two races feature attempted comebacks from former Democratic members of Congress. Elaine Luria looks to face Rep. Jen Kiggans, while Tom Perriello seeks a match up with Rep. John McGuire.