2026-08-04T10:06:24.762Z / 路透社
华盛顿8月4日路透电 —— 民主党意识形态分歧将在周二迎来2026年初选季以来最严峻考验,进步派候选人阿卜杜勒·赛义德有望击败中间派美国众议员黑利·史蒂文斯,拿下密歇根州民主党联邦参议员提名。
密歇根州是堪萨斯州、密苏里州、弗吉尼亚州和华盛顿州之外,当日举行党内初选的五个州之一。民主党需要净增四个席位才能重新掌控参议院,而密歇根州——唐纳德·特朗普2024年在此获胜的州——正是实现这一目标的关键所在。
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以下是我们重点关注的五大看点:
民主党在密歇根州上演党内缠斗
进步派和民主社会主义者此前已在从纽约到加利福尼亚州的关键国会选区及稳固民主党席位的初选中获胜,撼动了民主党建制派。
但最大的筹码——也是最大的风险——当属密歇根州联邦参议员初选:曾在州长选举中失利的赛义德,正对阵2018年翻转共和党-held席位的温和派众议员史蒂文斯。
史蒂文斯获得了包括州长格蕾琴·惠特默在内的民主党建制派支持,还受益于亲以色列超级政治行动委员会(PAC)数千万美元的外部竞选支出。
包括参议员伯尼·桑德斯和伊丽莎白·沃伦在内的进步派人士已团结在赛义德身后。若赛义德获胜,将验证“进步派无法在大选关键选区或州获胜”这一说法是否成立。
共和党目前以53票对47票掌控参议院多数席位。尽管民主党在关键州基本处于攻势,但他们需要防守特朗普2024年获胜的两个州的席位:密歇根州和佐治亚州。若在任一州失利,民主党拿下参议院多数席位的难度将大幅提升。
近期初选民调显示,赛义德以两位数优势领先史蒂文斯,但民调同时显示史蒂文斯在大选中的竞争力更强。
根据候选人最新的竞选资金披露文件,2024年共和党联邦参议员提名候选人、此次无对手参选的前美国众议员迈克·罗杰斯,将带着450万美元竞选资金投入大选。他在2024年的选举中以不到一个百分点的差距输给了民主党候选人埃利萨·斯洛特金。
分裂的温和派或遭“收割”
尽管密歇根州联邦参议员初选是该州最受关注的对决,温和派与进步派的分歧也将在兰辛地区的关键选区上演。该选区目前由共和党众议员汤姆·巴雷特代表。
民主党三方初选中有两名温和派候选人:前美国海军海豹突击队队员马特·马斯达姆和前美国驻乌克兰大使布里奇特·布林克,以及进步派气候活动家威廉·劳伦斯。
民主党建制派更希望看到马斯达姆或布林克在大选中对阵巴雷特,但他们担忧温和派候选人可能会分流中间派左翼选民,让劳伦斯有机可乘。
2024年特朗普在巴雷特所在选区以1.3个百分点的优势获胜,当年巴雷特以近4个百分点的优势拿下了民主党-held的开放席位。民主党需要在11月的选举中净增三个席位,才能赢得众议院多数席位。
科里·布什发起复出竞选
今年以来,前国会议员的复出竞选战绩喜忧参半,目前仅有四人在初选中晋级。另有数人要么暂停竞选,要么在初选中落败。
接下来迎来复出挑战的是密苏里州民主党进步派议员科里·布什,她将在2024年的重赛中试图击败美国众议员韦斯利·贝尔。
在上一轮选举中,一个亲以色列的超级PAC斥资800万美元帮助推翻直言批评以色列的布什。同一个名为“联合民主项目”的超级PAC,本选举周期已斥资超300万美元阻止布什重返国会。
该选区的获胜者在11月的选举中胜算极大,因为圣路易斯地区的这个选区是稳固的民主党票仓。
萨尼塔达尔能在二人对决中胜出吗?
美国众议员什里·萨尼塔达尔是一位富有的印度裔美国人,2022年在拥挤的开放席位初选中胜出,当选代表底特律地区选区的议员。他在2024年初选中击败了两名黑人女性,而此次初选他只有一名对手:唐ovan·麦金尼——一位黑人州议员,获得了桑德斯和密歇根州美国众议员拉希达·特莱布等多名进步派议员的支持。
密歇根州黑人人口约占该选区总人口的45%。包括黑人众院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯在内的民主党国会领导层,已背书萨尼塔达尔寻求连任。麦金尼则获得了包括内华达州前国会黑人核心小组主席史蒂文·霍斯福德在内的众多国会黑人核心小组成员的支持。
麦金尼已筹集超过130万美元资金,但萨尼塔达尔可以动用个人财富投入数百万美元竞选。上个月由进步派组织“正义民主党人”赞助的一项民调显示,萨尼塔达尔以微弱优势领先,但在向受访者展示两人的竞选背景资料后,麦金尼的支持率领先优势扩大。
预计该选区初选的获胜者将在11月的大选中胜出。
堪萨斯州审议最高法院改革提案
堪萨斯州选民将审议一项公投提案,批评人士警告该提案可能导致该州堕胎权被推翻。
2022年,近60%的选民否决了一项限制堕胎权的宪法修正案。堪萨斯州最高法院2019年裁定,该州宪法保护堪萨斯人决定是否继续妊娠的权利。2024年,法院再次确认了这一权利。
若此次公投获得通过,将改变该州最高法院大法官的遴选方式。目前的遴选流程为:州长从九人委员会选出的三名最终候选人中任命大法官。
新公投提案将允许选民通过直选产生任期六年的大法官,2028年将有三个席位改选,2030年两个席位改选,2032年剩余两个席位改选。出现席位空缺时将通过特别选举填补。
现任州共和党总检察长克里斯·科比克2022年曾表示,若当年的堕胎权修正案公投失败,通过直选大法官是推翻法院堕胎裁决的次优方案。科比克称,最高法院直选将让该州“循序渐进地”任命反堕胎大法官,最终限制堕胎权。
诺兰·D·麦卡斯基尔报道;迈克尔·利尔蒙特和霍华德·戈勒编辑
本报守则:路透社信任原则
Five things to watch in Tuesday’s US primaries
2026-08-04T10:06:24.762Z / Reuters
WASHINGTON, Aug 4 (Reuters) – The Democratic Party’s ideological divide faces its biggest test of the 2026 primary season on Tuesday, with progressive Abdul El-Sayed looking to win Michigan’s Democratic U.S. Senate nomination over center-left U.S. Representative Haley Stevens.
Michigan is one of five states holding primaries along with Kansas, Missouri, Virginia and Washington state. Democrats need to net four seats to retake the Senate, making Michigan — a state Donald Trump won in 2024 — central to those hopes.
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Here are five things we’re watching:
DEMOCRATS FIGHT THEIR CIVIL WAR IN MICHIGAN
Progressives and democratic socialists have jolted the establishment with primary victories in battleground congressional districts and safe Democratic seats from New York to California.
But the biggest prize — and greatest risk — is Michigan, where El-Sayed, a former unsuccessful candidate for governor, is running against Stevens, a moderate congresswoman who flipped a Republican-held seat in 2018.
Stevens is backed by the Democratic establishment, including Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and has been the beneficiary of tens of millions of dollars in outside spending by a pro-Israel super PAC.
Progressives, including Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, have rallied around El-Sayed, whose victory would test the narrative that progressives can’t win in general election battleground districts or states.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. And while Democrats are largely on offense in battleground states, they’re defending two seats in states Trump won: Michigan and Georgia. A loss in either state would make a Democratic Senate majority significantly more challenging.
Recent primary polls show El-Sayed leading Stevens by double digits, but surveys show Stevens is a stronger general election opponent.
Former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers, the 2024 Republican Senate nominee who is running unopposed, will enter the general election with $4.5 million in his war chest, according to his most recent campaign finance disclosure. He lost the 2024 race by less than a percentage point to Democrat Elissa Slotkin.
DIVIDED MODERATES COULD GET CONQUERED
While Michigan’s Senate race is the state’s marquee matchup, the moderate-progressive divide will also play out in a Lansing-area battleground district represented by Republican Tom Barrett.
The three-way Democratic primary features two moderates — former U.S. Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink — and progressive climate activist William Lawrence.
Establishment Democrats would rather see Maasdam or Brink face Barrett in the general election, but there’s concern they could split the center-left primary vote and give Lawrence a path to victory.
Trump won Barrett’s district by 1.3 percentage points in 2024, when Barrett won the Democratic-held open seat by nearly 4 percentage points. Democrats need to net three seats in November to win a majority in the House of Representatives.
CORI BUSH’S COMEBACK BID
Former members of Congress have had a mixed record this year on comeback attempts, with only four so far advancing in primaries. Several others either suspended their campaigns or lost their primaries.
Next up is Cori Bush, a progressive Missouri Democrat seeking to unseat U.S. Representative Wesley Bell in a rematch of 2024.
A pro-Israel super PAC spent $8 million to help unseat Bush, a vocal critic of Israel, last cycle. That same super PAC, United Democracy Project, has spent more than $3 million this cycle to keep Bush out of Congress.
The winner is heavily favored to win in November, as the St. Louis-area district is safely Democratic.
CAN THANEDAR WIN A TWO-MAN RACE?
U.S. Representative Shri Thanedar, a wealthy Indian American, was elected to his Detroit-area district in 2022 after prevailing in a crowded open-seat primary. He defeated two Black women in a 2024 primary but has a single opponent this time: Donavan McKinney, a Black state representative backed by several progressive lawmakers, including Sanders and U.S. Representative Rashida Tlaib of Michigan.
Black Michiganders comprise about 45% of the district’s population. Democratic congressional leaders — including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is Black — have endorsed Thanedar’s reelection. McKinney is backed by many members of the Congressional Black Caucus, including former CBC Chair Steven Horsford of Nevada.
McKinney has raised more than $1.3 million, but Thanedar has millions of dollars from his personal wealth to spend. An opinion poll last month sponsored by the progressive group Justice Democrats found Thanedar narrowly leading, though respondents favored McKinney by a wider margin after being shown biographies of both candidates.
The winner is expected to win in November.
KANSAS CONSIDERS SUPREME COURT REFORM
Voters in Kansas will consider a referendum that critics warn could lead to the overturning of abortion rights in the state.
In 2022, nearly 60% of voters rejected a constitutional amendment to restrict access to abortion. The Kansas Supreme Court ruled in 2019 that the state’s constitution protected Kansans’ decision of whether to continue a pregnancy. The court reaffirmed that right in 2024.
The new referendum would change how state Supreme Court justices are chosen, if successful. Justices are currently selected by a process in which the governor chooses among three finalists selected by a nine-member commission.
The referendum would allow voters to elect justices to six-year terms, with three seats up in 2028, two seats up in 2030 and the final two seats up in 2032. Vacancies would be filled by special elections.
Kris Kobach, now the state’s Republican attorney general, said in 2022 that electing justices by popular vote was the next best way to overturn the court’s abortion decision after the referendum failed. Kobach said Supreme Court elections would allow the state to “slowly and quietly” put anti-abortion justices on the bench to eventually restrict abortion access.
Reporting by Nolan D. McCaskill; Editing by Michael Learmonth and Howard Goller
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.


