2026-09-16T09:00:29.116Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
2026年初选季出现了诸多标志性事件：左翼出现民主社会主义者和反以色列候选人，多位现任议员在初选中失利，唐纳德·特朗普总统实现了复仇，但也见证其对选民基础的掌控力出现动摇，以及共和党人展开的毫不留情的选区重划行动可能在未来多年引发连锁反应。
所有这一切都为中期选举铺平了道路，由于特朗普的支持率处于历史低位，民主党似乎有机会拿下众议院（看起来大概率）和参议院（看起来有可能）。
但在我们完全转向中期选举之前，先回顾一下过去六个半月的党内提名角逐带来的一些看点，这些角逐已于周二晚间特拉华州初选落下帷幕，以及它们能为我们预示哪些未来趋势。
以下是我们总结的经验教训。
特朗普的选民基础支持率如今比以往任何时候都更弱，这一点显露无遗
共有10名获得特朗普背书的候选人在国会或全州范围的共和党提名初选中失利——其中包括5名州长候选人，仅8月份就有6名候选人落败。
据CNN审查Ballotpedia的数据，这10次失利的总数相当于2018年、2020年和2024年特朗普背书候选人败选次数的总和，但略低于2022年的12次。当然，2022年时外界对特朗普能否卷土重来尚存疑问。
特朗普的整体背书记录依然亮眼，几乎任何候选人都希望在初选中获得他的支持。但这绝非必胜法宝。这进一步印证了一种观点：右翼选民不再像过去那样轻易听从他的指令。
尽管部分获得特朗普背书的候选人落败，但当他真正高调针对某些人时，通常都能取得成功。
他成功推翻了肯塔基州众议员托马斯·马西，此前这名议员牵头推动公开爱泼斯坦文件，并在其他多个问题上与特朗普分道扬镳。他击败了路易斯安那州参议员比尔·卡西迪，后者是在第二次弹劾审判中投票判定特朗普有罪的7名共和党议员之一。他还推翻了8名印第安纳州共和党参议员中的6名，这些议员否决了他极力支持的选区重划方案。他在一场备受瞩目的初选决选中击败了得克萨斯州参议员约翰·康恩。
自称民主社会主义者的候选人在民主党提名候选人中仍占少数——据布鲁金斯学会的一项研究显示，占比不到1%。但他们正在越来越大的选区竞选中获胜
在2025年纽约市长候选人佐赫兰·曼达尼和西雅图市长候选人凯蒂·威尔逊胜选后，民主社会主义者击败了3名现任众议员，有望组建有史以来规模最大的国会代表团——人数可能达到两位数。
尽管他们大多仅在深蓝选区获得提名，但他们也在密歇根州的一个摇摆国会选区以及佛罗里达州的参议院竞选中获得了提名。这还不包括密歇根州民主党参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德，他认同该运动的部分理念，但并未自称民主社会主义者。
民主社会主义者还有望赢得华盛顿特区市长竞选，在洛杉矶也有可能胜出。
他们在备受关注的威斯康星州州长初选中功亏一篑，州众议员弗朗西斯卡·洪在民主党建制派全力阻止其获得提名后落败——这也证明建制派仍有一定影响力。但洪能如此接近胜利本身就已经相当引人注目。
尽管共和党将社会主义作为2026年竞选的主要抹黑对象，但选举结果和近期民调显示，美国民众并不十分担心选举合适的民主社会主义者。
事实上，近期民调显示，选民实际上更担心选举“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）阵营的候选人，而非自称社会主义者的候选人。本周《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院的一项民调显示，仅有30%的潜在选民表示不会投票给民主社会主义者。
尽管外界广泛关注民主社会主义者和埃尔-赛义德可能会让民主党错失重要选区，但他的情况实属例外。总体而言，民主党似乎已经招募并提名了符合当地情况、能赢得选民个人支持的候选人——包括爱荷华州参议院候选人乔希·图雷克、阿拉斯加州前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉和北卡罗来纳州前州长罗伊·库珀。
CNN近期的一项审查显示，在所有顶级参议院竞选中，民主党提名的候选人支持率都高于共和党候选人，仅密歇根州除外。
由于共和党在本次选举周期内开启了选区重划军备竞赛，未来的初选显然将充满变数
尽管此前也曾出现过中期选区重划，但共和党此次的行动规模是现代历史上前所未有的——其目的仅仅是为了争取少数几个对自身有利的席位。这导致民主党也在力所能及的范围内做出回应，以抵消共和党 gains gains 的优势。
总体而言，共和党新增了多达9个对其有利的席位——这在争夺众议院多数席位的激烈竞争中可能至关重要。（不过，如果民主党表现出色，他们也有可能拿下其中部分席位。）
美国最高法院的一项裁决也使得共和党更容易在南方取消多数黑人选区，这引发了新一轮的选区重划行动，可能会大幅减少国会中的黑人代表人数。
这可能意味着，除非两党达成某种协议或出台相关立法，否则双方只要有机会、只要能获得优势，就会不断重新划分选区。这可能会在未来几年引发更多动荡，减少竞争性选区的数量。
民主党选民基础在过去几年中对以色列的批评声日益尖锐，这在2026年民主党几场备受瞩目的初选中发挥了重要作用
以色列支持者并未在所有竞选中落败，但该问题已成为多场竞选的核心议题，包括埃尔-赛义德以微弱优势击败众议员黑利·斯蒂文斯、明尼苏达州副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根在民主党参议院初选中胜出，以及纽约州众议员阿德里亚诺·埃斯帕利亚特、丹·戈德曼和密歇根州众议员什里·塔内达尔等人在初选中爆冷失利。
即使在美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）帮助获胜候选人的竞选中，其广告也明显未聚焦中东问题。
丑闻仍能毁掉政客的政治生涯——前提是丑闻足够严重
多年来，特朗普经历的各种丑闻都未能对他造成影响，仿佛他身上有特氟龙涂层。但2026年初选季表明，他在这方面仍然是个特例。
在民主党方面，加州州长候选人埃里克·斯瓦尔威尔和缅因州参议院候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳在面对各自否认的性侵指控后都退出了竞选。在共和党方面，得克萨斯州众议员托尼·冈萨雷斯因与一名自杀身亡的职员有婚外情的爆料而退出初选决选，田纳西州众议员安迪·奥格尔斯和佛罗里达州众议员科里·米尔斯则因个人负面新闻在初选中落败。
但俄亥俄州众议员马克斯·米勒仍在参选，尽管他的前妻在他赢得初选后曝出了令人反感的指控。得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿尽管背负包括过往刑事指控和弹劾在内的大量负面新闻，仍在初选决选中击败了康恩。
所有相关人员都否认有不当行为。
至少有13名现任议员在寻求连任的国会初选中失利——从历史数据来看，这一数字异乎寻常地高。他们失利的原因多种多样，包括反以色列情绪、特朗普的复仇行动以及选区重划使得现任议员连任难度加大。
不过这种态势在全州范围的竞选中也有所体现，选民似乎并不太愿意提拔国会议员。大多数寻求晋升的现任议员在这些初选中也都落败了。
Trump’s successful revenge tour and 8 other takeaways from the 2026 primaries
2026-09-16T09:00:29.116Z / CNN
The 2026 primary season featured the rise of democratic socialist and anti-Israel candidates on the left, a host of incumbents losing primaries, President Donald Trump getting revenge but also seeing his hold on his base waver, and a bare-knuckle redistricting push by Republicans that could reverberate for years to come.
All of it set the stage for a midterm election in which Democrats seem to have a chance to flip both the House (which appears likely) and the Senate (which appears possible), thanks to Trump’s historic unpopularity.
But before we turn completely to that, let’s reflect on some takeaways from the past six and a half months of nominating contests, which culminated in the Delaware primary Tuesday night, and what they could tell us about what’s to come.
Here’s what we learned.
Trump’s standing with his base is weaker than ever right now, and it showed.
In total, 10 Trump-backed candidates lost GOP nominating contests for Congress or statewide office – including five candidates for governor and six candidates in the month of August alone.
The 10 losses is equal to the combined total defeats of Trump-backed candidates across the 2018, 2020 and 2024 elections, per a CNN review of Ballotpedia data, though it was slightly less than in 2022 (12). Of course, back in 2022 there was some question about whether Trump could make a political comeback.
Trump’s overall endorsement record is strong, and virtually any candidate would want his backing in a primary. But it was far from a silver bullet. And that reinforces the idea that voters on the right aren’t taking their cues from him as much as they used to.
While some Trump-backed candidates lost, he generally did well when he really went after people in high-profile ways.
He ousted Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky after the congressman spearheaded the push to release the Epstein files and broke with him on several other issues. He knocked off Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, one of seven Republicans to vote to convict him at his second impeachment trial. He took down 6 of 8 Indiana GOP state senators who killed a redistricting map he really wanted. And he ousted Sen. John Cornyn of Texas in a very high-profile primary runoff.
Self-described democratic socialists are still a small proportion of the candidates Democrats nominated – less than 1%, per a Brookings Institution study. But they’re winning nominations in bigger and bigger races.
After New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson’s wins in 2025, democratic socialists defeated three House incumbents and are on course for their largest congressional contingent ever – possibly in the double-digits.
And while they largely only won nominations in heavily blue districts, they were nominated in a swing congressional district in Michigan and for Senate in Florida. That doesn’t even include Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who shares some of the movement’s sensibilities but doesn’t call himself a democratic socialist.
Democratic socialists are also expected to win the Washington, DC, mayor’s race and could win in Los Angeles too.
They did come up short in a much-watched primary for Wisconsin governor, where state Assemblywoman Francesca Hong lost after the Democratic establishment fought hard to prevent her nomination – and showed it still had some influence. But the fact that Hong got that close to victory was pretty remarkable, in and of itself.
Despite Republicans lifting socialism up as their big 2026 boogeyman, the results and recent polling suggest Americans aren’t terribly worried about electing the right kinds of democratic socialists.
In fact, recent polls have shown voters are actually more concerned about electing MAGA candidates than ones who identify with socialism. And a New York Times/Siena College poll this week showed just 30% of likely voters said they would prefer not to vote for a democratic socialist.
While there has been lots of focus democratic socialists and El-Sayed possibly costing Democrats important races, he’s very much the exception. By and large, Democrats appear to have recruited and nominated candidates who fit their areas well and appeal to voters personally – including Senate candidates like Josh Turek in Iowa, former Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska and former Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina.
A recent CNN review showed the Democratic Senate nominee was more popular than the Republican in every top race except Michigan.
Future primaries are apparently going to be moving targets, thanks to Republicans’ move to start a redistricting arms race this election cycle.
While we had seen mid-decade redistricting before, Republicans ramped it up in a way we simply haven’t seen in modern history – all to draw just a handful of additional seats that favor their side. That caused Democrats to respond in kind where they could try to offset those GOP gains.
All told, Republicans netted as many as nine seats that are now favorable to them – which could matter in a close battle for the House majority. (If Democrats have a good year, though, they could win a number of those seats.)
The Supreme Court also ruled in a way that makes it easier for Republicans to eliminate majority-Black districts in the South, which launched another wave of redistricting efforts and could significantly reduce Black representation in Congress.
What this likely means is that, absent some kind of agreement between the parties or legislation, the two sides are just going to keep redrawing these maps whenever they can and whenever there is an advantage to be gleaned. That will likely lead to more upheaval and fewer competitive races in the years to come.
The Democratic base has spent the last couple years adopting a sharply critical view of Israel, and that figured significantly in some high-profile 2026 Democratic primaries.
Israel supporters didn’t lose all the races, but the issue emerged as a major one in a number of races, including El-Sayed’s narrow victory over Rep. Haley Stevens, Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s win in the Democratic Senate primary, and the primary upsets of Reps. Adriano Espaillat and Dan Goldman of New York and Shri Thanedar of Michigan, among others.
Even in races where the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) helped a victorious candidate, its advertisements tellingly didn’t focus on the Middle East.
Scandals can still sink politicians – if they’re bad enough
Trump has spent years seeing scandals bounce off him like he’s made of Teflon. But the 2026 primary season suggested he’s still unusual in that regard.
On the Democratic side, California governor candidate Eric Swalwell and Maine Senate nominee Graham Platner both dropped out in the face of sexual assault allegations that they denied. Across the aisle, Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales dropped out of his primary runoff amid revelations of an affair with a staffer who died by suicide, and Reps. Andy Ogles of Tennessee and Cory Mills of Florida lost primaries in part thanks to personal baggage.
But Rep. Max Miller of Ohio remains on the ballot, despite ugly allegations from his ex-wife that emerged after he won his primary. And Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton defeated Cornyn in a primary runoff despite his own extensive baggage, including past criminal charges and an impeachment.
All have denied wrongdoing.
No fewer than 13 incumbents lost primaries for reelection to Congress – an unusually high number, historically speaking. They lost due to a variety of reasons, including anti-Israel sentiment, Trump’s revenge tour and districts being redrawn in ways that made it more difficult for incumbents.
But this dynamic also arguably showed up in statewide races, where voters didn’t seem to have much interest in elevating members of Congress. Most of those who sought promotions lost in those primaries, too.