2026-07-27T18:02:48.273Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
就在伊朗战争爆发前几天，美国最高军事官员、参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军表达了担忧。
据《华盛顿邮报》和CNN报道，凯恩最担心的问题之一是：与伊朗的战争可能进一步耗尽弹药储备，而近年来因帮助乌克兰和以色列参与战争，美国弹药储备本已有所减少。
如今，随着特朗普政府艰难推进一场比预期持续时间长得多的战争，这一警告显得愈发具有先见之明且至关重要。
但美国政府在弹药这一至关重要的问题上，始终难以厘清现状。
一方面，它声称美国拥有充足的弹药——甚至称特朗普大幅增加了弹药储备，相关数量“无限”。另一方面，它又指责拜登政府耗尽了弹药储备，同时要求拨付巨额资金用于补充储备，并警告称若国会不拨款，美国将面临弹药短缺问题。
“我们的状况非常好，”特朗普周一表示，“但对于某些更先进的弹药，我们当然希望能有更多。（前总统乔）拜登把大量弹药送了出去。”
拜登则称其前任“送出了前所未有的海量弹药”。
美国常驻联合国大使迈克尔·瓦尔茨周日在NBC新闻《与媒体见面》节目中的采访，也体现了本届政府混乱的信息口径。
当被问及CNN等媒体报道的凯恩近日再次对弹药储备表示担忧的消息——该消息发布于美国周五暂停对伊朗空袭前不久——瓦尔茨和特朗普一样，将责任归咎于拜登政府。
“（国防）部长（皮特）赫格斯塞思从拜登政府手中接手的，不仅是因乌克兰冲突、也因针对胡塞武装的持续战斗而耗尽的战备状态，还有一支被拜登政府削弱的军队，”瓦尔茨说道。
但当NBC主持人克里斯汀·韦尔克追问他是否承认弹药储备确实已耗尽时，瓦尔茨否认了这一点。
“不，我要明确说明：美国军方——我已经通过各种方式核实过——拥有本次行动所需的一切物资，足以高效完成任务，”他说。
瓦尔茨的表态十分微妙。
正如CNN此前报道的那样，弹药储备面临的风险，并非美国没有足够弹药完成伊朗战争，而是这场战争可能耗尽储备，影响美国未来可能被迫卷入的其他战争的弹药供应。
这包括诸如中国入侵台湾这类紧急情况。若美国弹药储备耗尽，甚至可能助长中国做出原本不会尝试的举动。
本届政府在弹药问题上的混乱表态，可追溯至伊朗冲突爆发之初。
战争爆发前后有多篇报道提及此类担忧后，政府当即对该问题不予理会。
“我们拥有海量弹药，”特朗普3月4日表示。
赫格斯塞思3月5日补充称，“不存在弹药短缺”，“我们的弹药库已满”。
“我们拥有极其充足的弹药，”特朗普3月26日说道，还补充道，“我们的储备已经满溢。”
但即便在3月4日的讲话中，总统似乎也暗示——就像他周一所说的那样——某些类型的弹药可能存在问题。
他称美国拥有“无限量的中、高级弹药”，但对“高端”弹药的说法则有所不同。他表示，“我们送出了大量高端弹药，但我们仍有不少库存。”
到4月21日，CNN报道称，美国国防部的机密数据与战略与国际研究中心的一份分析结果相符，显示部分“高端”弹药数量大幅下降。该分析称，美方至少使用了45%的精确打击导弹、至少一半的萨德反导系统导弹、近50%的爱国者防空拦截弹，以及约30%的战斧陆攻巡航导弹。
到4月30日，赫格斯塞思在参议院军事委员会听证会上似乎承认，补充某些类型的弹药需要“数月乃至数年时间”——随后他试图强调“数月”而非“数年”。
5月12日的众议院听证会上，赫格斯塞思称媒体对弹药问题的报道“愚蠢且毫无必要地夸大了”，并表示“我们拥有所需的全部物资”。
但凯恩在同一场听证会上的态度则更为谨慎。他仅表示军方“拥有足够完成当前任务的弹药”——而“当前”二字或许暗藏隐患。
到6月，赫格斯塞思在CBS《面向全国》节目中称，“我们的弹药储备状况良好，且只会越来越好”——尽管不到两个月前他还表示补充弹药需要数月乃至数年时间。
但随后在上周的参议院听证会上，当他要求国会拨付更多资金时，赫格斯塞思又称，如果没有这笔资金，“我们将面临严重的短缺，这将威胁我们……快速补充装备和弹药的能力”。
在同一场听证会上，拨款委员会主席苏珊·柯林斯在开场陈述中两次提及弹药“短缺”，并表示该委员会“早已知晓这一问题”。赫格斯塞思并未纠正这位缅因州共和党议员的说法。
弹药问题无疑是一个棘手的难题。
一方面，如果政府确实在大量消耗重要的高端弹药——尤其是在一场不受欢迎、且看不到尽头的战争中持续消耗弹药，这可能令人担忧。
这有点像往无底洞里扔钱。正如赫格斯塞思曾承认的那样，补充这些弹药不仅需要资金，还需要生产所需的时间。
这意味着伊朗战争可能不仅是一场徒劳无功的行动，还可能损害美国国家安全，削弱美国在近期威慑邪恶外国势力的能力。
另一方面，如果弹药储备确实大幅耗尽，让外国敌对势力知晓这一点对美国并无益处。
无论弹药储备的真实状况如何，这对特朗普政府而言都是一个潜在的重大隐患。
这个问题不仅将决定本届政府能将伊朗战争继续推进多久，甚至可能在战争结束后，长期影响美国的外交政策。
Why warnings about the US munitions stockpile look increasingly pivotal
2026-07-27T18:02:48.273Z / CNN
Just days before the Iran war began, the United States’ top military official, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Dan Caine, expressed misgivings.
One of Caine’s biggest concerns? How war with Iran could further deplete munitions stockpiles that had already been reduced by helping Ukraine and Israel in their wars in recent years, The Washington Post and CNN reported.
That warning is looking increasingly prescient and pivotal, as the Trump administration struggles to wind down a war that has lasted much longer than it previewed.
But the administration is struggling to reconcile exactly where things stand on the all-important issue of munitions.
On the one hand, it has claimed the US has more than enough munitions — even that Trump has vastly increased the munitions and that the number is “unlimited.” On the other, it has blamed the Biden administration for depleting the stockpiles and asked for a ton of money to help replenish them, while warning about shortfalls if Congress fails to provide it.
“We’re in very good shape,” Trump said Monday. “But for some of the more sophisticated stuff, we’d certainly like to have more. (Former President Joe) Biden gave a lot of it away.”
The president claimed his predecessor had given away “numbers that nobody’s ever seen before.”
US Ambassador to the United Nations Michael Waltz’s interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday was also a case in point for the administration’s confusing messaging.
When asked about reporting from CNN and others that Caine had again raised concerns about the stockpile in recent days — shortly before the US paused its strikes on Iran on Friday — Waltz, like Trump, blamed the Biden administration.
“(Defense) Secretary (Pete) Hegseth inherited a depleted situation from not only Ukraine, but also the ongoing fight with the Houthis under the Biden administration, and a depleted military under the Biden administration,” Waltz said.
But when pressed by NBC’s Kristen Welker on whether he was admitting the stockpiles were indeed depleted, Waltz claimed he wasn’t.
“No, I want to be crystal clear: The US military — and I’ve verified this every which way — has everything that it needs to conduct this campaign as effectively as it needs to be,” he said.
Waltz’s comment walks a fine line.
As CNN has reported, the risk with the munitions stockpile isn’t so much that the United States won’t have enough to finish prosecuting the Iran war; it’s in how much the war might deplete the stockpile for future wars the United States might feel compelled to get involved in.
That includes exigencies like if China were to invade Taiwan. A depleted US stockpile could even embolden China to do something it might not otherwise attempt.
The administration’s confusing comments about munitions date to the earliest days of the conflict with Iran.
After multiple reports about such concerns around the time the war started, the administration dismissed the issue out of hand.
“We have massive amounts of ammunition,” Trump said on March 4.
Hegseth added March 5 that there was “no shortage of munitions” and that “our munitions are full up.”
“We have tremendous amounts of ammunition,” Trump said March 26, adding that “we’re packed.”
But even in his March 4 comments, the president also seemed to suggest — as he did Monday — that certain types of munitions could be an issue.
While he said the United States had “unlimited middle and upper ammunition,” he cast the “high end” munitions slightly differently. There, he said, “we gave away a lot of high end, but we have plenty.”
By April 21, CNN reported that classified Pentagon data aligned with a Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis showing sharp declines in some of those “high end” munitions. The analysis said the administration had used at least 45% of its Precision Strike Missiles, at least half of its THAAD missiles, almost 50% of its Patriot air defense interceptor missiles and about 30% of its Tomahawk land-attack missiles.
By April 30, Hegseth at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing seemed to confirm it would take “months and years” to replenish certain types of munitions (before trying to emphasize the “months” rather than “years”).
At a House hearing May 12, Hegseth said the munitions issue had been “foolishly and unhelpfully overstated” in the media, saying, “We have plenty of what we need.”
But Caine was more circumspect at the same hearing. He merely said that the military had “sufficient munitions for what we’re tasked to do right now” — with the phrase “right now” potentially looming large.
By June, Hegseth told CBS’ “Face the Nation” that “our stockpiles are great, and they’re only getting stronger” — despite having said less than two months earlier that it would take months or years to replenish them.
But then, while asking Congress for more money at a Senate hearing last week, Hegseth said that without the money, “we face critical shortfalls that threaten our ability to … rapidly replenish equipment and munitions.”
At the same hearing, Appropriations Chairwoman Susan Collins in her opening statement twice cited “shortfalls” in munitions and said they had been “known to this committee for some time.” Hegseth did not correct the Maine Republican.
The munitions issue is undoubtedly a difficult one.
On the one hand, it’s potentially alarming if the administration is significantly depleting important types of high-end munitions — especially by continuing to use them in an unpopular war that doesn’t seem to be nearing an end.
It’s a bit like throwing good money after bad. And replacing those munitions, as Hegseth acknowledged at one point, isn’t just a matter of money; it’s also a matter of the time it takes to produce them.
That raises the prospect that the Iran war hasn’t just been a lost cause, but also that it has potentially harmed national security and the United States’ ability to deter nefarious foreign actors in the near-term future.
On the other hand, if the munitions are being significantly depleted, it’s not particularly helpful to the US for those foreign actors to know that.
Whatever the true state of the munitions stockpile, it’s a sleeping giant of an issue for the Trump administration.
It’s one that not only looms large over how long the administration can continue the Iran war. But it could also linger over American foreign policy whenever the war concludes.