2026年9月11日 美国东部时间10:55:15 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
瑞典将于周日举行大选，此次选举可能成为这个北欧国家以及北约新成员国的历史性节点。近年来，欧洲各地的右翼民粹政党在选民对移民问题日益强烈的反弹声中势力不断扩张，瑞典也不例外。
本次大选的对决双方是首相乌尔夫·克里斯特松领导的中右翼联盟，以及由前首相玛格达莱娜·安德松领导的社会民主党牵头的中左翼阵营。但此次选举的最大悬念在于，瑞典右翼民粹政党瑞典民主党是否有望首次进入政府。
该政党的根源可追溯至瑞典极端右翼边缘群体，过去二十年来一直在稳步向政治权力中心靠拢。它于2010年首次进入议会，到2022年已成为该国第二大政党，并同意在议会外支持克里斯特松的少数派政府。这一安排让该党在无需正式执掌政府部门的情况下，对移民、犯罪及其他政策拥有了实质性影响力。但如今克里斯特松希望组建多数派政府，并更进一步表示，如果右翼阵营再次赢得执政资格，瑞典民主党将获得内阁部长职位。
这一变化让本次大选成为对瑞典民主党长期政治正常化进程的考验，同时也将检验瑞典选民是否准备好接纳这个曾被几乎整个政坛精英阶层排斥的政党，如今执掌行政权力。
“政治焦点已经发生了转移，从真正的政治挑战转向了谁将入主政府，”林奈大学思想史教授安德烈亚斯·厄纳福斯对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示。
目前民调结果势均力敌，9月2日至10日进行的Indikator民调显示，中左翼联盟支持率为50.8%，右翼联盟为47.6%。
从边缘走向主流
多年来，瑞典各老牌政党一直对瑞典民主党设置所谓的“政治防火墙”，原因在于该党的极端主义根源。据路透社报道，最晚至2018年，克里斯特松还向大屠杀幸存者赫迪·弗里德承诺不会与该政党合作。瑞典民主党自己也承认，其早期历史中的一些人物与新纳粹和白人至上主义运动存在关联。
瑞典民主党领袖吉米·阿克松在瑞典瑟尔沃斯堡发表演讲。尼古拉斯·波利耶 / 彭博社 盖蒂图片社供图
但在自2005年起领导该党的吉米·阿克松的带领下，瑞典民主党一直在驱逐极端分子、重塑自身形象，并将自己打造成一个主流右翼政党，其政策包括驱逐非法入境者、收紧公民入籍法、要求新移民严格融入社会，以及将社会保障仅向公民提供。
该党的部分成功源于将传统右翼立场与针对工薪阶层选民的政策相结合。
“他们将典型的右翼立场与典型的工党或社会民主党主张——社会保障和福利之类的东西——结合了起来，这在普通民众中很有吸引力，”厄纳福斯说道。
移民与犯罪是选民核心关切
瑞典民主党推动将更严格的移民和犯罪政策置于瑞典政治议程的核心位置。不过，该党的持久影响力也植根于瑞典社会的深刻变革以及选民的观念变化。
“瑞典政治在移民和犯罪等问题上显然已转向更严格的方向，”中瑞典大学政治学家尼拉斯·博林教授对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻表示。“重要的是，这种转变不仅限于右翼政党。瑞典最大政党社会民主党也朝着这个方向迈进了。”
在2015年欧洲移民危机期间，瑞典收到了约16.3万份庇护申请。以当时不足1100万的人口计算，瑞典的人均庇护申请率在欧洲名列前茅。在随后的几年里，移民融合、种族隔离以及帮派枪击和爆炸事件激增成为全国性的重大政治议题。该国的移民政策自此发生了巨大转变。
瑞典政府表示，避难移民数量已降至1985年以来的最低水平。
政府的犯罪打击政策也使得帮派暴力有所回落。警方数据显示，枪击事件从2022年的391起降至2025年的158起，今年这一下降趋势仍在持续。但暴力事件带来的政治影响，以及围绕移民和融合的广泛争论却延续了下来。
“瑞典民主党已经建立了稳定的选民基础，”博林说道。
“移民问题和对融合的不满仍是重要原因，但他们的支持率也与对犯罪的担忧以及对老牌政党的普遍不满有关。”
他补充道，该党的支持群体“尤其以男性、工薪阶层选民以及大城市以外地区的选民为主”。
对于一个世代以来以低犯罪率、慷慨的福利国家以及对移民、平等和个人权利的开明态度为荣的国家而言，周日的大选标志着一个重要时刻——它将检验瑞典政治的转变程度，以及这个曾被置于边缘的政党是否已准备好进入政府核心。
Sweden’s election could mark major milestone for Europe’s populist right
2026-09-11 10:55:15 EDT / CBS News
By Sweden heads to the polls on Sunday in an election that could mark a watershed moment for the northern European nation and NATO’s newest member. Across Europe, right-wing populist parties have gained ground in recent years amid growing voter backlash over immigration, and Sweden has been no exception.
The election pits Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s center-right coalition against a center-left bloc led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats. But hanging over the race is the prospect of Sweden’s right-wing populist Sweden Democrats entering government for the first time.
The party, which traces its roots to Sweden’s extreme-right fringe, has spent the past two decades moving steadily toward the center of political power. It first entered parliament in 2010. By 2022, it became the country’s second-largest party and agreed to support Kristersson’s minority government from outside the cabinet. The arrangement gave the party substantial influence over immigration, crime and other policies without formal responsibility for government departments. But now Kristersson wants to govern as a majority government and has gone one step further, saying the Sweden Democrats would receive ministerial posts if the right wins another term.
This has transformed the election into a test of the Sweden Democrats’ long political normalization and whether Swedish voters are prepared to see a party once shunned by almost the entire political establishment now exercise executive power.
“There has been a shift of focus, which has gone from the true political challenges to who is going to sit in the government,” Andreas Önnerfors, a professor of intellectual history at Linnaeus University, told CBS News.
The polls are currently on a knife-edge, with an Indikator Opinion poll conducted Sept. 2–10 putting the center-left coalition on 50.8%, against 47.6% for the right coalition.
From fringe to mainstream
For years, Sweden’s established parties maintained what amounted to a political firewall around the Sweden Democrats because of the party’s extremist roots. As recently as 2018, Kristersson assured Holocaust survivor Hédi Fried that he would not cooperate with the party, according to Reuters. The Sweden Democrats themselves acknowledge that figures involved in their early history had connections to neo-Nazi and white supremacist movements.
Jimmie Akesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats, delivers a speech in Solvesborg, Sweden. Nichlas Pollier / Bloomberg via Getty Images
But under Jimmie Åkesson, who has led the party since 2005, the Sweden Democrats have sought to expel extremists, moderate their image and present themselves as a mainstream right-wing party, with policies including deporting people who are in the country illegally, toughening citizenship laws, requiring strict assimilation of newcomers and restricting social security to citizens.
Part of the party’s success has come from combining positions traditionally associated with the political right with policies aimed at working-class voters.
“They have merged typical right-wing positions with typical Labour or Social Democratic positions — social security and benefits and things like that. That makes sense among ordinary people,” Önnerfors said.
Immigration and crime as key voter concerns
The Sweden Democrats helped make tougher immigration and crime policies central to Swedish politics. Still, their durability is also rooted in profound changes in Swedish society and voters’ perceptions.
“Swedish politics has clearly moved in a more restrictive direction on issues such as immigration and crime,” Professor Niklas Bolin, a political scientist at Mid Sweden University, told CBS News. “Importantly, this shift is not limited to the parties on the right. The Social Democrats, Sweden’s largest party, have also moved in this direction.”
Sweden received around 163,000 asylum applications during the 2015 European migration crisis; with a population just shy of 11 million, it was among the highest per-capita rates in Europe. In subsequent years, integration, segregation and a surge in gang shootings and bombings became major national political issues. The country’s approach to immigration has since changed dramatically.
The Swedish government says asylum immigration has fallen to its lowest level since 1985.
Government policies on crime have also led gang violence to recede. Police figures show shootings falling from 391 in 2022 to 158 in 2025, with the decline continuing this year. But the political consequences of the violence and the wider debate over immigration and integration have endured.
“The Sweden Democrats have built a stable electoral base,” Bolin said.
“Immigration and dissatisfaction with integration remain important explanations, but their support is also linked to concerns about crime and a broader dissatisfaction with established parties.”
Their support, he added, is “particularly strong among men, working-class voters and voters outside the larger cities.”
For a country that for generations has prided itself on low crime, a generous welfare state and liberal attitudes toward immigration, equality and individual rights, Sunday’s election marks an important moment — testing how far Sweden’s politics have shifted, and whether a party once kept at the margins is now ready to enter the heart of government.