2026-08-07T21:27:04.947Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
据三位知情人士透露，近几周来，参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩上将已私下向其他特朗普高级顾问明确表示，美国需要找到从伊朗战争中抽身的“退路”——因为目前可供选择的升级冲突的军事方案可能适得其反，且仅靠空中力量不太可能实现唐纳德·特朗普总统 stated的目标。
“凯恩正在寻找退路，”其中一位消息人士直言不讳地说道。
并非只有凯恩一人认为这场战争已走到十字路口。两位消息人士称，他已与包括中央情报局局长约翰·拉特克利夫、国务卿马可·卢比奥以及副总统J·D·万斯在内的其他关键内阁成员讨论了对升级冲突的军事方案的担忧，并提出了从伊朗战争中抽身的可能性。
这位美国最高将领近期与部分志同道合的特朗普高级顾问进行了私下磋商，以推动跨部门协调，确保他们在与总统会晤前达成共识。消息人士表示，此举旨在明确现有军事方案的局限性和陷阱，其中包括那些不派遣美军地面部队的方案。
“我认为这只是他保护军方的一种方式，”其中一位消息人士在谈及凯恩与特朗普内阁内其他高级国家安全官员就伊朗战争展开的讨论时告诉CNN。
特朗普始终似乎反对向伊朗部署地面部队，反而暗示他认为空袭可以迫使伊朗按照他的条件达成协议。据多位熟悉近期讨论的消息人士透露，凯恩和特朗普内阁中的其他官员私下认为这种结果不太可能实现，因此一直在寻求符合总统自身框架的其他方案。
战争陷入僵局，军方坦言军事手段无解
在这场以“伊朗军事能力已被摧毁”的宣传开场、至今仍以特朗普总统“阻止德黑兰获得核武器”的承诺为核心的战争进入近六个月之际，特朗普最资深的将领私下辩称，这场由总统发起的战争并无简单的军事解决方案，这一点极具象征意义。
针对CNN置评请求，凯恩的发言人约瑟夫·霍尔斯特德表示：“我们不会讨论主席与总统、国防部长或其他高级领导人的机密对话，也不会对那些未参与对话的消息人士出于议程驱动的匿名描述发表评论。”
一位白宫官员称赞了凯恩对特朗普国家安全团队的贡献，他告诉CNN：“凯恩上将是特朗普总统国家安全团队中极为宝贵的资产，‘史诗之怒’‘午夜之锤’和‘绝对决心’行动的巨大成功不言自明。”
“这位上将始终向总司令提供准确、公正的信息和多种方案，最终由总统基于对美国国家安全最有利的原则做出决策，”该官员补充道。
美国国务院和中央情报局拒绝置评。
如今这场战争已发展到这样一个阶段：特朗普的众多顶级国家安全官员，在军事教条、美国情报界评估和常识的支撑下，认同凯恩在上月末的一场公开听证会上对议员们所说的——“空中力量有其局限性”。
出于这些原因，凯恩和其他特朗普官员对7月底最新提出的发动更激进打击的计划持谨慎态度，他们担忧升级冲突可能带来的后果。尽管总统最初似乎准备批准他称之为“大规模”的行动，一位消息人士说道，并拒绝透露行动细节。
“唯一支持该行动的是中央司令部的部分人员，”该消息人士补充道，并指出以色列也普遍支持升级冲突的行动。
一位高级政府官员告诉CNN，特朗普最终在与中东盟友交谈后放弃了该计划，盟友们表示他们担心伊朗的报复，特别是针对其能源基础设施的袭击。该官员补充称，总统并未将此次计划中的打击行动从未来的选项中移除。
弹药储备枯竭也是关键因素
CNN此前报道称，美国关键弹药储备的减少也是一个因素。多位消息人士表示，这一担忧不仅由凯恩提出，海湾地区官员也表达了类似关切。他们近期向政府官员传达了一个信息：如果特朗普决定升级冲突，美国高端防空系统的短缺可能会影响他们抵御伊朗潜在报复的能力。
特朗普多次威胁要袭击伊朗的能源基础设施。消息人士称，此举不太可能迫使伊朗屈服——凯恩本人也曾公开暗示过这一点——而且几乎肯定会引发针对海湾国家能源基础设施的报复性袭击。多位消息人士表示，这样做还可能进一步疏远伊朗民众，而非让民众将责任归咎于伊朗政权。
另一位消息人士称，特朗普还曾考虑轰炸桥梁，但此举同样不太可能取得积极成果。“可打击的目标实在不多，因为打击无人机和导弹阵地就像打地鼠一样。轰炸发电厂在公众眼中会更有分量。”
小心翼翼地应对特朗普
消息人士称，尽管凯恩提出了担忧，但他也一直注重维护与特朗普的关系，在直接向总统陈述军事方案的潜在弊端时格外谨慎。
据熟悉相关情况的人士透露，他在担任参谋长联席会议主席期间一直努力争取能直接向总统汇报的机会，甚至曾试图在白宫争取一间办公室，以便能更定期地向总统简报，并拥有一个高度安全的办公场所。
两位熟悉相关讨论的消息人士表示，凯恩在上月末与特朗普和其他高级官员举行的白宫会议上，提出了升级冲突的军事方案的潜在弊端——包括对本已枯竭的美国弹药储备的担忧，这是“在履行职责”。
但其中一位熟悉近期白宫会议的消息人士告诉CNN，在同一场讨论中，凯恩也向总统明确表示，如果总统希望推进这些行动，“我们绝对可以圆满完成任务”。
然而，第三位知情人士表示，私下里，凯恩更直接地承认了空中力量的局限性，并重申他的观点：在战争现阶段，仅靠空袭不太可能实现特朗普 stated的目标。
有人认为凯恩对特朗普不够强硬。今年早些时候，一位熟悉凯恩与特朗普互动的消息人士在对比凯恩在白宫的谈话与他私下与军方领导人讨论发动战争的可能性时告诉CNN：“他确实有所保留。”
最近几周，凯恩似乎更直言不讳地谈到了美国升级行动可能带来的二阶和三阶效应。CNN此前曾报道，他至少在两次近期与特朗普讨论升级方案的会议上，明确表达了对美国弹药储备枯竭的担忧。
但与此同时，一位熟悉其中一次讨论的消息人士称，凯恩在这些会议上也重申，如果特朗普最终决定启动升级战争的行动，美国军方可以给伊朗造成重创。
这是凯恩微妙平衡策略的一部分：他私下告诉他人，他希望恢复人们对其作为美国最高将领职位以及对军方的信任，尽管特朗普已将两者政治化。
战争爆发前，凯恩和其他军方领导人也曾同样警告特朗普，旷日持久的军事行动可能会影响美国的武器储备，尤其是那些用于支持以色列和乌克兰的武器。但现在，美国高级军事指挥官认为弹药储备“已低至危险境地”，一位消息人士此前告诉CNN，而特朗普对这一问题似乎越来越不满，因为这似乎削弱了他在与伊朗谈判中可信地展示实力的能力。
CNN此前报道称，凯恩至少在两次近期与特朗普讨论升级冲突的潜在方案的会议上，提出了美国弹药储备减少的担忧。与此同时，特朗普似乎对战争对美国弹药的影响被公开报道一事更加不满——他在上周与内阁成员在戴维营举行的会议上表达了这些不满。
弹药短缺也是五角大楼和美国中央司令部近期开始重新评估美国军事战略的原因之一，CNN曾报道。例如，中央司令部的一位高级军事官员近期发送了一封众筹邮件，寻求新的、创造性的非常规手段来施压和惩罚伊朗，消息人士此前告诉CNN。
尽管征集新想法未必是坏事，尤其是考虑到当前的战争局势，但消息人士指出，在战争开始六个月后才这样做，相当于默认事情进展并不顺利。
“在战争期间而非战前审视这些选项，情况会艰难得多，”一位熟悉规划讨论的消息人士说道。
作为参谋长联席会议主席，凯恩负责起草打击伊朗的军事方案。但即使在战前五角大楼与其他高级官员的会议上，这位特朗普的最高将领也曾直言不讳地指出发动重大行动的潜在弊端——当时就曾对此次任务的规模、复杂性和美军可能出现的伤亡表示担忧，据熟悉其建议的消息人士透露。
但与此同时，特朗普在战前的一篇帖子中专门提到了凯恩的名字，声称他的顶级军事顾问认为这场持续数月的伊朗冲突“将轻松取胜”。
随着战争接近六个月大关，针对凯恩履职方式的温和批评再次浮现，人们开始质疑他在管理长期冲突方面相对缺乏经验。
“在这件事上，他力不从心，”一位熟悉凯恩如何应对当前危机——包括战略层面以及管理与特朗普的关系——的消息人士说道。
但凯恩并非个例。政府内部和外部的许多分析人士都认为，要决定性击败伊朗，唯一的途径是开展涉及地面部队的重大行动，这一承诺可能会导致数千名美军士兵丧生。五角大楼会考虑所有 scenarios，因此这类计划确实存在，但截至目前，政府内部无人主张采取如此激进的行动。
因此，随着凯恩和其他人不断让特朗普意识到，不那么激进的升级军事行动可能会带来负面结果，当前的重点是找到一条能为总统带来至少“象征性”胜利的退路——他可以试图向美国民众推销这一结果，同时不妨碍潜在的外交突破，首先可以从重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的协议开始。
CNN的海莉·布里茨基和阿莱娜·特里恩为本报道贡献了采访报道。
Trump’s top general is ‘looking for an off-ramp’ from Iran war as US military options remain limited, sources say
2026-08-07T21:27:04.947Z / CNN
Over the last few weeks, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine has privately made clear to other top Trump advisers that the US needs to find an off-ramp from the war with Iran — because the military options on the table to escalate the conflict could backfire and airpower alone is unlikely to achieve President Donald Trump’s stated objectives, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
“Caine is looking for an off ramp,” one of the sources said bluntly.
Caine is not alone in his view that the war has reached a crossroads. He has discussed concerns about the military options for escalating the conflict and raised the prospect of finding an off-ramp from the war with other key Cabinet officials, including CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, two of the sources said.
The top US general has recently side-barred with some of those key, like-minded Trump advisers in an effort to facilitate interagency coordination and ensure they are on the same page ahead of meetings with the president. The aim has been to make clear the limitations and pitfalls of the available military options, including those that do not involve putting US boots on the ground, the sources said.
“I think it is just his way of protecting the military,” one of the sources told CNN, referring to Caine’s discussions with other top national security officials within Trump’s cabinet about the Iran war.
Trump has consistently appeared averse to the idea of deploying ground troops in Iran, instead signaling he believes that air bombing can force them to agree to a deal on his terms. Caine and others in Trump’s cabinet privately view that outcome as unlikely and instead have sought to develop other options that fit within the president’s own parameters, according to multiple sources familiar with recent discussions.
Nearly six months into a conflict which opened with weeks of claims that Iran’s military capabilities had been decimated, and which remains defined by the president’s pledge of preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, it is highly significant that Trump’s most senior general is privately arguing there is no easy military solution to end a war the president chose to enter.
In response to CNN’s request for comment on this story, Caine’s spokesperson Joseph Holstead said: “We do not discuss the Chairman’s confidential conversations with the President, the Secretary, or other senior leaders, nor do we comment on anonymous, agenda-driven characterizations of those conversations by sources who were not privy to them.”
A White House official praised Caine’s contributions to Trump’s national security team, telling CNN: “General Caine is an incredible asset to President Trump’s national security team, and the overwhelming success of Operations Epic Fury, Midnight Hammer, and Absolute Resolve speaks for itself.”
“The General always provides accurate, unbiased information and a host of options to the Commander-in-Chief, who ultimately makes decisions based on what he feels is best for US national security,” the official added.
The State Department and CIA declined to comment.
The war has reached a point where many of Trump’s top national security officials, bolstered by military doctrine, assessments from the US intelligence community and common sense, believe what Caine himself told lawmakers during a public hearing late last month — “airpower has its limits.”
For those reasons, Caine and other Trump officials were wary of the latest plan late in July to launch new, more aggressive strikes due to concerns about the likely fallout that could come from escalating the conflict, even as the president appeared ready to initially greenlight what he described as a “massive” operation, one of the sources said, declining to elaborate on the operational details.
“The only ones in favor of the operation were elements of CENTCOM,” the source added, noting Israel also broadly supported an operation to escalate the conflict.
Trump ultimately decided to back off after talking with Middle East allies, who told him they were afraid of Iranian retaliation, specifically retaliatory attacks on their energy infrastructure, a senior administration official told CNN, adding that the president is not taking the planned strikes off the table for a future date.
But dwindling US stockpiles of key munitions were also a factor, CNN has reported, as multiple sources said it was a concern that has been raised not only by Caine but also by Gulf officials, who have recently conveyed to administration officials how a shortage of high-end American air defense systems could impact their ability to ward off potential Iranian retaliation if Trump decides to escalate the conflict.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure, a move sources said is unlikely to force Iran to capitulate — as Caine himself has alluded to publicly — and almost certainly prompt retaliatory attacks targeting energy infrastructure of Gulf countries. Doing so would also likely further alienate the Iranian population, rather than fuel blame toward the regime, several sources said.
Trump has also considered bombing bridges, but doing so is similarly unlikely to yield productive results, per a second source. “There really isn’t much else to hit since it is whack-a-mole with drone and missile sites. Bombing powerplants would be publicly a lot more significant.”
Handling Trump carefully
But while Caine has raised concerns, he has also been mindful of preserving his relationship with Trump and been careful in how he conveys the potential downsides of military options when presenting them directly to the president, the sources said.
He has worked hard in his time as chairman to make sure he has Trump’s ear, at one point even trying to secure an office at the White House so he could brief the president more regularly and have a highly secure space to work from when he’s there, according to people familiar with the matter.
Caine was “doing his job” by recently raising potential downsides of military options for escalating the conflict — including concerns about the already depleted US munitions stockpile — during a White House meeting with Trump and other top officials late last month, two sources familiar with the discussion said.
But during the same discussion, Caine also made clear to the president that if he wanted to go forward with those operations, “we could absolutely wreck them,” one of the sources familiar with that recent White House meeting told CNN about the chairman’s message.
Privately, however, Caine has been more direct in acknowledging the limits of air power and reiterating his view that bombing alone is unlikely to achieve Trump’s stated objectives, at this stage of the war, according to a third source familiar with the matter.
Some say Caine hasn’t been assertive enough with Trump. “He’s definitely pulling punches,” a source familiar with Caine’s interactions with Trump told CNN earlier this year, when comparing his White House conversations with his private discussions with military leaders about potentially launching the war.
Caine appears to have become more vocal about the potential second and third order effects of potential US escalation in recent weeks. CNN previously reported that he specifically raised concerns about the depleted US munitions stockpile during at least two recent meetings with Trump where options for escalating were discussed.
But at the same time, Caine has reiterated during those meetings that the US military can inflict massive damage on Iran if Trump ultimately decides to go forward with an operation that would escalate the war, according to a source familiar with one of those discussions.
It’s part of Caine’s delicate balancing act, telling people privately that he wants to restore trust in his position as the country’s top general and in the military more broadly even as Trump has politicized both.
Before the war began, Caine and other military leaders similarly warned Trump that a protracted military campaign could impact US weapons stockpiles — particularly those that support Israel and Ukraine. But now, senior US military commanders believe the munitions stockpile is “dangerously low,” a source previously told CNN, and Trump has become increasingly frustrated by how the issue appears to undermine his ability to credibly project strength in negotiations with Iran.
Caine has raised concerns about the dwindling US munitions stockpile during at least two recent meetings with Trump where potential options for escalating the conflict were discussed, CNN has reported. Trump, meanwhile, appears more frustrated by the fact that the war’s impact of US munitions has been reported publicly — airing those grievances during a meeting with his Cabinet at Camp David last week.
The munitions shortage is also one reason the Pentagon and US Central Command have recently begun to reevaluate the US’ military strategy, CNN has reported. For example, a senior military official at CENTCOM recently sent a crowdsourcing email seeking new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran, sources previously told CNN.
While soliciting fresh ideas is not necessarily a bad idea, particularly given the current state of the war, sources noted that doing so six months after the war started amounts to tacit acknowledgment things are not going well.
“It is rough when you are looking at those options in the middle of the war instead of before it starts,” one of the sources familiar with the planning discussions said.
As chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Caine is responsible for drafting military options for striking Iran, but even in pre-war meetings at the Pentagon with other senior officials, Trump’s top general was vocal about the potential downsides of launching a major operation — even then raising concerns about the scale, complexity and potential for US casualties of such a mission, according to sources familiar with his advice.
But at the same time, Trump specifically invoked Caine by name in a pre-war post claiming his top military adviser believed the now-months long conflict with Iran “will be something easily won.”
As the war approaches the six-month mark, tempered criticism about Caine’s approach to the job is being revived and questions about his relative lack of experience managing an extended conflict are beginning to emerge.
“He is out of his depth on this one,” a source familiar with how Caine is navigating the current crisis — both strategically and in managing his relationship with Trump.
But Caine is not an outlier, many within the administration as well as outside analysts agree that the only way to decisively defeat Iran would be through a major operation involving ground troops, a commitment that could potentially cost thousands of American lives. The Pentagon considers all scenarios, so those plans exist, but as of now no one in the administration is arguing for such drastic action.
Therefore, as Caine and others continue to make sure Trump is aware that less drastic escalatory military actions could lead to negative results, the focus is on finding the off-ramp that offers the president a “symbolic” win — at minimum — he can try to sell to the American people without preventing a potential diplomatic breakthrough, starting with an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
CNN’s Haley Britzky and Alayna Treene contributed reporting.