2026-08-12T05:05:32.770Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/12/politics/wisconsin-south-carolina-minnesota-primaries-takeaways
民主党建制派周二在威斯康星州强势反击，该党在最后时刻团结起来，支持在州长初选中与民主社会主义者弗朗西斯卡·洪对决的最后一位温和派候选人。
美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）的决策台预测，密尔沃基县行政长官戴维·克劳利将以微弱优势击败洪。克劳利上月退出竞选，在另一位知名候选人退选后重新参选。
克劳利的胜利反映出，这个长期作为总统选举摇摆州的州的初选选民担心，洪可能会在大选中不敌共和党众议员汤姆·蒂法尼，成为实力弱得多的候选人。
即将卸任的两届州长托尼·埃弗斯在竞选尾声展开竞选活动，团结民主党人支持克劳利。近日的采访中，该州民主党选民提到洪在电视采访中的失误——包括在CNN采访中被问及她2020年主张取消感恩节的推文时，给出了含糊其辞的回答——以此解释他们对这位37岁州议员、前餐厅老板竞选可行性的担忧。
这场初选被视为衡量民主党意识形态方向的风向标：在阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德赢得密歇根州参议院民主党提名一周后，此次初选将检验今年春夏在深蓝选区兴起的进步派 insurgency 是否会蔓延至另一个总统选举摇摆州。
8月对民主党左翼来说是一场重大考验——这是他们难得有机会证明自己不仅能在深蓝城市选区获胜，也能在摇摆州取胜的时刻。
但连续第二周，他们支持的候选人都陷入了苦战。上周，阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德以极微弱优势赢得密歇根州民主党参议院初选；本周，洪则以更为悬殊的差距落败。
那么，该如何解释这一现象？
| 候选人 | 得票率与票数 |
| — | — |
| 戴维·克劳利 民主党 | 39.8% 313,321 |
| 弗朗西斯卡·洪 民主党 | 39.4% 310,110 |
| 凯尔达·罗伊斯 民主党 | 7.5% 59,013 |
| 乔尔·布伦南 民主党 | 4.7% 36,981 |
| 萨拉·罗德里格斯 民主党 | 4.1% 32,505 |
| 曼德拉·巴恩斯 民主党 | 4.1% 32,239 |
| 米西·休斯 民主党 | 0.4% 3,234 |
一种可能性是，部分选民对投票给可能在大选中落败的候选人心存顾虑。民主党高层一直极为担忧提名埃尔赛义和洪，或许部分选民认为投票给他们风险过高。
初选民调也比大选民调更难开展，因为选民群体的可预测性更低。也有观点认为，这些民调可能过度抽样了受教育程度更高的城市选民（他们更支持左翼候选人），而抽样不足的农村蓝领选民。
此外，这两场初选的优质民调都少之又少。
但就洪与克劳利的竞选而言，还有另一种解释：反对洪的势力在后期完成了整合。
马凯特法学院7月底的一项民调显示，洪的支持率为46%，前副州长曼德拉·巴恩斯为21%，克劳利为11%。有时当一场竞选明显进入两强对决时，选民会看清形势并决定在两人之间做出选择。巴恩斯在该民调发布次日退选后，克劳利便成为了替代人选。
在毗邻的明尼苏达州，进步派再次赢得一场被视为民主党左翼与中间派之间代理战的竞选。
副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根在民主党参议院初选中击败温和派众议员安吉·克雷格。两人竞争提名以接替即将退休的参议员蒂娜·史密斯。
弗拉纳根批评克雷格曾获得美国以色列公共事务委员会的大量资金支持。她还抨击克雷格投票支持《莱肯·赖利法案》，该法案要求拘留被控特定罪行的无证移民，而克雷格如今表示后悔支持该法案。今年1月联邦特工在明尼苏达州射杀两名抗议大规模驱逐行动的美国公民后，移民执法问题成为该州的争议焦点。
不过，弗拉纳根从未引发像洪在威斯康星州那样的竞选可行性担忧。她还获得了佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯和马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦的背书，这两人均未参与威斯康星州州长竞选。
这位副州长将在11月的大选中成为热门人选，她的对手是首次参选的前NFL解说员米歇尔·塔福亚。
明尼苏达州的另一场进步派胜利出现在克雷格即将空出的第二国会选区众议院席位初选中。前州参议员马特·利特尔在双子城南部郊区的激烈角逐中胜出。
| 候选人 | 得票率与票数 |
| — | — |
| 佩吉·弗拉纳根 民主党 | 59.0% 411,767 |
| 安吉·克雷格 民主党 | 39.4% 274,860 |
| 库尔特·安德森 民主党 | 0.6% 4,520 |
达琳·格雷厄姆凭借前总统唐纳德·特朗普的支持获得参议院任命，如今又在南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员任期完整选举的特别初选中拔得头筹。但她能否在8月25日的决选中更进一步仍是巨大的未知数。
格雷厄姆周二获得约三分之一的选票，大幅领先她的决选对手拉尔夫·诺曼众议员。但这并不保证她会成为决选的热门，决选获胜者需要获得多数选票。
事实上，与其他获得特朗普背书的候选人相比，格雷厄姆的得票率远未达到获得多数所需的50%加1票。周二之前，仅有一位获得特朗普支持的全州范围候选人的初选得票率低于她。
| 候选人 | 得票率与票数 |
| — | — |
| 达琳·格雷厄姆* 共和党 | 32.7% 109,629 |
| 拉尔夫·诺曼 共和党 | 24.6% 82,541 |
| 拉塞尔·弗莱 共和党 | 19.6% 65,715 |
| 马克·桑福德 共和党 | 14.9% 50,022 |
| 马克·林奇 共和党 | 5.9% 19,862 |
那位候选人是6月州长初选中的南卡罗来纳州副州长帕姆·埃维特；当对手的支持者完成整合后，她在决选中以37个百分点的差距落败。
此次共和党参议员初选的其他候选人之一正是诺曼，他在最初的初选中以17%的得票率排名第三。那次表现不算亮眼，但这意味着在参议员林赛·格雷厄姆上月去世后，他可以利用自己已有的全州竞选基础设施。
作为众议院自由核心小组的领导人，诺曼拥有扎实的保守派资历，这在与达琳·格雷厄姆的一对一对决中可能尤为宝贵。他周二也明确表示，将用自己 proven 的保守派执政记录对比格雷厄姆缺乏政治履历的短板。
“我的执政记录是公开的，”他说道。
如果说诺曼存在一个隐患，那可能是他在2024年选择支持前南卡罗来纳州州长妮基·黑利而非特朗普。诺曼解释称这是出于个人交情，但特朗普通常会对这类事情怀恨在心。
格雷厄姆还有大量工作要做，而“我的枕头”创始人迈克·林德尔在明尼苏达州共和党州长初选中落败，意味着自上周以来已有三名获得特朗普背书的候选人失利。
第一位是8月4日密歇根州国会候选人阿米尔·哈桑。他以两位数的差距输给了退选后重新参选的汤姆·史密斯。
第二位是现任众议员安迪·奥格尔斯，他在周四输给了前田纳西州农业专员查理·哈彻。
如今则轮到格雷厄姆进入决选，林德尔则输给了明尼苏达州众议院议长丽莎·德穆特。
林德尔的失利意味着本初选季已有7名获得特朗普背书的国会或全州公职候选人落败，其中包括5名竞选全州公职的候选人。
根据CNN对Ballotpedia数据的梳理，这7次失利的数量超过了2018年、2020年和2024年获得特朗普背书的候选人失利总数。而今年已有4名州长候选人失利，这一数字也超过了2022年。
| 候选人 | 得票率与票数 |
| — | — |
| 丽莎·德穆特 共和党 | 43.4% 179,655 |
| 迈克·林德尔 共和党 | 32.5% 134,273 |
在康涅狄格州中部，第一国会选区的民主党分歧更多关乎代际更迭，而非意识形态：选民将78岁的现任众议员约翰·拉森赶下台，转而支持47岁的前哈特福德市长卢克·布罗宁。
布罗宁的胜利提醒人们，民主党选民的情绪有多么躁动。在前总统乔·拜登宣布寻求连任后又因外界对这位81岁总统的年龄和精神敏锐度的担忧加剧而退选，民主党青年运动的步伐进一步加快。
拉森这位连任14届的现任议员在2025年2月的众议院演讲中突然僵住后，健康问题引发关注。他后来表示自己患上了复杂部分性癫痫，并开具了能“大幅降低”再次发作几率的药物。
这位资深议员辩称，自己的资深资历最能为选区优先事项争取到资源。但布罗宁表示，民主党需要新的方向和更强的紧迫感，以应对特朗普政府。他赢得了康涅狄格州民主党党的背书，还获得了前交通部长皮特·布蒂吉格的支持，后者被视为2028年总统竞选的潜在候选人。
| 候选人 | 得票率与票数 |
| — | — |
| 卢克·布罗宁 民主党 | 54.3% 29,905 |
| 约翰·拉森* 民主党 | 32.8% 18,029 |
| 吉利安·吉尔克里斯特 民主党 | 8.1% 4,440 |
丽贝卡·库克将在威斯康星州西南部迎来与共和党众议员德里克·范奥尔登的重赛。在第三国会选区民主党初选中，她击败了进步派对手、前欧克莱尔市议会主席艾米丽·伯奇。
这场竞选至关重要，在2024年对共和党更有利的政治环境中，身为小企业主和服务员的库克以 dairy farmers 的女儿为背景展开竞选，仅以3个百分点的差距惜败范奥尔登。如今这个德里斯夫利兹地区国会选区被视为民主党最有可能拿下的席位之一。
民主党建制派支持筹款能力强劲的库克。但这场竞选并非传统意义上的进步派与温和派对决。库克与“defund警察”和废除移民海关执法局等左翼政策保持距离，但她也获得了桑德斯的背书，并播出了 solely 强调桑德斯支持的电视广告。
选举日前最大的疑问是，由洪领导的进步派浪潮是否也会帮助伯奇爆冷胜出。但这一浪潮周二并未出现。
| 候选人 | 得票率与票数 |
| — | — |
| 丽贝卡·库克 民主党 | 60.5% 56,511 |
| 艾米丽·伯奇 民主党 | 39.4% 36,806 |
Establishment strikes back in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries
2026-08-12T05:05:32.770Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/12/politics/wisconsin-south-carolina-minnesota-primaries-takeaways
The Democratic establishment roared back Tuesday in Wisconsin, as the party coalesced at the last minute behind the last moderate standing against democratic socialist Francesca Hong in the primary for governor.
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley — who dropped out of the race last month, only to jump back in after another prominent candidate’s exit — will narrowly defeat Hong, CNN’s Decision Desk projects.
Crowley’s victory reflects a primary electorate in a perpetual presidential battleground state that feared Hong might have been a much weaker candidate in the general election against Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany.
The outgoing, two-term governor, Tony Evers, hit the campaign trail in the race’s closing days to rally Democrats around Crowley. In interviews in recent days, Democratic voters in the state said Hong’s stumbles in television interviews — including a CNN interview in which she gave a meandering answer when asked about a 2020 tweet in which she advocated for canceling Thanksgiving — as they explained their worries about the 37-year-old state lawmaker and former restaurant owner’s electability.
The race was seen as a gauge of the party’s ideological direction: testing whether the progressive insurgency that has played out in deep-blue districts this spring and summer would extend into another presidential battleground, the week after Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic nomination in Michigan’s Senate primary.
August has been a big test for the left-wing of the Democratic Party – a rare chance for it to demonstrate its ability to win not just in deep-blue urban areas but also swing states.
But for the second straight week, its candidate had a dogfight on their hands. Last week, it was Abdul El-Sayed winning the Michigan Democratic Senate primary by a very narrow margin;this week, it was an even tighter loss for Hong.
So, what might explain this?
| CANDIDATE | VOTES |
| — | — |
| David Crowley Democratic | 39.8% 313,321 |
| Francesca Hong Democratic | 39.4% 310,110 |
| Kelda Roys Democratic | 7.5% 59,013 |
| Joel Brennan Democratic | 4.7% 36,981 |
| Sara Rodriguez Democratic | 4.1% 32,505 |
| Mandela Barnes Democratic | 4.1% 32,239 |
| Missy Hughes Democratic | 0.4% 3,234 |
One possibility is that some voters might be gun-shy about following through and voting for candidates who might struggle to win in the general election. Democratic leaders have worried greatly about nominating both El-Sayed and Hong, and perhaps some voters were convinced those votes would be too risky.
Polling primary elections is also more difficult than general elections, because the universe of voters isn’t as predictable. And there is some thought that these surveys might be over-sampling more-educated, urban voters (who favor more left-wing candidates) and under-sampling more rural, blue-collar ones.
Plus, there just wasn’t much quality polling in either race.
But in the case of the Hong-Crowley race, there could be another explanation: that the opposition to Hong simply consolidated late.
A late July poll from Marquette Law School showed Hong at 46%, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes at 21%, and Crowley at 11%.
Sometimes when it’s clear a race is coming down to two candidates, voters see that and decide to choose between them. Crowley became the alternative when Barnes dropped out the day after that poll was released.
Next door in Minnesota, progressives won yet another race that served as a proxy battle between the party’s left and center flanks.
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan defeated moderate Rep. Angie Craig in the Democratic Senate primary. The two were competing for the party’s nomination to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith.
Flanagan criticized Craig’s history of financial support from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. She also lambasted Craig’s vote for the Laken Riley Act, which mandates the detention of undocumented immigrants charged with certain crimes and which the congresswoman now says she regrets supporting. The issue of immigration enforcement became a flashpoint in Minnesota after federal agents shot and killed two US citizens who were protesting mass deportation efforts there in January.
Flanagan, however, never ignited the sorts of deep worries about electability that Hong faced in Wisconsin. She was also endorsed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, both of whom sat out the Wisconsin governor’s race.
The lieutenant governor will be the heavy favorite in November, when she’ll take on former NFL broadcaster Michele Tafoya, a first-time candidate.
Progressives notched another victory in Minnesota in the primary for the 2nd District House seat that Craig is vacating. Matt Little, a former state senator, emerged as the winner in a crowded field in the Twin Cities’ southern suburbs.
| CANDIDATE | VOTES |
| — | — |
| Peggy Flanagan Democratic | 59.0% 411,767 |
| Angie Craig Democratic | 39.4% 274,860 |
| Kurt Anderson Democratic | 0.6% 4,520 |
Darline Graham rode President Donald Trump’s support to a Senate appointment and, now, to first place in South Carolina’s Republican special primary for a full term. But whether it will take her any further in the August 25 runoff is a big open question.
Graham took about one-third of the vote on Tuesday, running well ahead of her new runoff opponent, Rep. Ralph Norman. But that’s no guarantee that she’ll be the favorite in the runoff, where the winner needs to get a majority of the vote.
In fact, Graham is pretty far from 50%-plus-one, relative to other Trump-endorsed candidates. Before Tuesday, only one Trump-backed statewide candidate took less of the primary vote than she did.
| CANDIDATE | VOTES |
| — | — |
| Darline Graham* Republican | 32.7% 109,629 |
| Ralph Norman Republican | 24.6% 82,541 |
| Russell Fry Republican | 19.6% 65,715 |
| Mark Sanford Republican | 14.9% 50,022 |
| Mark Lynch Republican | 5.9% 19,862 |
That was South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pam Evette in the June gubernatorial primary; she went on to lose by 37 points in the runoff, when her opponents’ supporters coalesced.
One of the other candidates in that gubernatorial primary was Norman, who finished in third place with 17% in the initial contest. That wasn’t a great showing, but it meant he had a statewide campaign infrastructure to tap into in the wake of Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death last month.
Norman has strong conservative bona fides as a leader of the House Freedom Caucus, which could be especially valuable in a one-on-one matchup with Darline Graham. And he served notice Tuesday that he’ll contrast his proven conservative record with her lack of a political track record.
“My record is an open book,” he said.
If Norman has one problem, it might be his decision in 2024 to back former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley over Trump. Norman has explained it was because of personal ties, but Trump often holds grudges over such things.
Not only does Graham have plenty of work to do, but MyPillow founder Mike Lindell’s loss in the Minnesota GOP gubernatorial primary means three Trump-backed candidates have lost since last Tuesday.
The first was Michigan congressional candidate Amir Hassan on August 4. He lost to a candidate who had dropped out of the race, Tom Smith, by double-digits.
Then it was incumbent Rep. Andy Ogles falling to former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher on Thursday.
And now it’s Graham going to a runoff and Lindell losing to Minnesota state House Speaker Lisa Demuth.
Lindell’s loss means seven Trump-backed candidates for Congress or statewide office have lost this primary season, including five who ran for statewide office.
The seven losses are more than Trump-backed candidates had in 2018, 2020 and 2024, according to a CNN review of data from Ballotpedia. And the four gubernatorial candidates who have now lost this year is more than in 2022, as well.
| CANDIDATE | VOTES |
| — | — |
| Lisa Demuth Republican | 43.4% 179,655 |
| Mike Lindell Republican | 32.5% 134,273 |
In central Connecticut, the Democratic divide was less about ideology than generational change as voters in the 1st District ousted 78-year-old incumbent Rep. John Larson in favor of 47-year-old former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin.
Bronin’s win is a reminder of just how restive Democratic voters are. The party’s youth movement is being accelerated in the aftermath of former President Joe Biden’s ill-fated decision to seek reelection, only to drop out of the race as concerns about the then 81-year-old president’s age and mental acuity mounted.
Larson, a 14-term incumbent, faced health concerns after abruptly freezing on the House floor during a February 2025 speech. He later said he suffered a complex partial seizure and had been prescribed medication that would “greatly reduce” the chances of another such episode.
The longtime congressman made the case that his seniority best positioned him to deliver on the district’s priorities. But Bronin said Democrats need a new direction and a greater sense of urgency in taking on the Trump administration. He won the Connecticut Democratic Party’s endorsement, and was also backed by former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a likely 2028 presidential contender.
| CANDIDATE | VOTES |
| — | — |
| Luke Bronin Democratic | 54.3% 29,905 |
| John Larson* Democratic | 32.8% 18,029 |
| Jillian Gilchrest Democratic | 8.1% 4,440 |
Rebecca Cooke will get the rematch she sought with Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in southwestern Wisconsin after she fended off progressive rival Emily Berge, the former Eau Claire city council president, in the 3rd District Democratic primary.
It was a key race, with the Driftless Area congressional district looking like one of Democrats’ prime pick-up opportunities after Cooke, a small business owner and waitress who highlights her background as the daughter of dairy farmers, came within 3 percentage points of ousting Van Orden in a political environment more favorable to the GOP in 2024.
Establishment Democrats are backing Cooke, who has proven to be a strong fundraiser. But the race wasn’t a traditional progressive-versus-moderate showdown. Cooke has distanced herself from left-leaning policies like defunding the police and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. But she was also endorsed by Sanders, and aired a television advertisement focused solely on highlighting the Vermont senator’s support.
The biggest question entering Election Day was whether a progressive wave led by Hong would also sweep Berge to a surprise victory. But that surge did not materialize on Tuesday.
| CANDIDATE | VOTES |
| — | — |
| Rebecca Cooke Democratic | 60.5% 56,511 |
| Emily Berge Democratic | 39.4% 36,806 |