2026-11-02T16:30:00-0500 / CBS News
两年前，特朗普总统在全国拉美裔选民中取得历史性支持，拿下了得州多数拉美裔选票，颠覆了传统认知，打击了民主党让该州成为竞争战场的希望。
但现在，拉美裔选民可能正在回归。
他们对经济状况感到不满，同时对特朗普政府的移民政策担忧。这些因素加上特朗普不断下滑的支持率，给了民主党在[得州竞争激烈的参议院、众议院及州长选举]中的希望。
“一场拉美裔飓风正在袭来，”民主党战略家、CBS新闻政治评论员查克·罗查表示，他为得州民主党参议院和州长候选人提供咨询。“我们目前还不确定这会是二级飓风还是五级飓风，但它正在共和党面前登陆，而共和党对此束手无策。”
不过共和党方面称，对民主党的热情仍然低迷。
皮尤研究中心的数据显示，约有3900万拉美裔美国人具备投票资格，较2022年增加约520万。民主党曾将拉美裔视为天然优势，预测他们会为民主党带来优势，让一些州成为竞争战场。
但根据皮尤对经核实的选民的分析，2024年特朗普在该群体中获得了约48%的支持率，较2020年上升12个百分点，较2016年上升20个百分点，主要原因与共和党现在失去他们的原因相同——经济和移民政策。特朗普在拉美裔男性选民中以两个百分点的优势获胜，而2020年他在该群体中落后17个百分点。
这种优势在得州更为明显，根据出口民调，2024年特朗普赢得了得州约55%的拉美裔选民支持，将该州格兰德河谷地区的蓝色县变为浅红色。
但截至10月初，特朗普在拉美裔中的支持率[仅为24%]，2024年投票给特朗普的拉美裔中只有57%认可他的工作表现，较2025年2月的93%有所下降。51%的拉美裔选民表示计划投票给民主党众议院候选人，而计划投票给共和党的比例为24%。
拉美裔选民占[得州合格选民的30%以上]，可能会在得州备受关注的参议院和州长选举中起到关键作用。
10月的[CBS民调]显示，60%的拉美裔选民计划投票给民主党参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科，而非共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿。拉美裔选民支持民主党人吉娜·伊诺霍萨竞选州长，反对现任共和党州长格雷格·阿博特，支持率差距大致相同。
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民主党得州州长候选人吉娜·伊诺霍萨和参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科于11月1日周日在圣安东尼奥举行竞选活动。美联社照片/埃里克·盖伊
伊诺霍萨解释了2024年特朗普在拉美裔选民中成功的原因，以及他们为何可能转而支持民主党。
“特朗普之所以获胜，并且能够赢得河谷地区和得州的拉美裔选票，是因为他称现行制度被操纵了——而他是对的。民主党一直在维护一个站不住脚的制度，这个制度实际上对我们不利，”伊诺霍萨告诉CBS新闻。
她继续说道：“人们感到被背叛了。在这个高成本的经济环境中，人们只想知道：你会努力改善我的生活吗？格雷格·阿博特已经执政12年，在得州生活比以往任何时候都更艰难。”
特朗普为其政府在拉美裔问题上的表现进行了辩护。
在得州科珀斯克里斯蒂，他为帕克斯顿和其他共和党人举行的集会上吹嘘拉美裔的经济成就，指出根据美国人口普查局的数据，去年拉美裔贫困率降至历史最低水平，从2024年的15.1%降至13.9%。
总统敦促得州选民出来支持共和党，称民主党的政策会威胁该州的经济，并危及边境安全。
他驳斥了自己在拉美裔选民中支持率下滑的说法，当被问及此事时，他进行了反驳。
“我赢得了拉美裔选民的支持，”特朗普在10月中旬表示。“我比历史上任何其他共和党人都做得更多。我赢得了大量拉美裔选民的支持。”
这些相互矛盾的信息说明了得州两党的政治赌注，得州自1994年以来没有民主党人赢得过全州公职，自1988年劳埃德·本特森赢得参议院选举以来，也没有民主党人赢得过参议院选举。
选举结果可能会产生远超得州的影响。加利福尼亚州、亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州和宾夕法尼亚州的竞争激烈的国会选区有大量拉美裔人口，因此即使投票偏好出现微小变化，也会对政治产生影响。
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特朗普总统在10月27日周二于科珀斯克里斯蒂港举行的竞选集会上，聆听得州参议院候选人、州检察长肯·帕克斯顿发言。美联社照片/亚历克斯·布兰登
“普遍愤怒”
罗查表示，“得州的拉美裔可能比几乎任何州都更向右转”，但他补充说，保守派、自由派和独立派拉美裔现在都真正关注经济问题。
“他们的团结程度超出了我这辈子见过的任何情况，而且他们都一致感到愤怒，”罗查说，他是团结战略公司的总裁兼创始人。
罗查表示，物价、燃料成本和生活成本的上升是导致这种不满的主要原因——这些也是全国选民关注的问题。对移民政策的担忧[加剧了部分拉美裔选民的不安]，尤其是在南得州。
他提到格兰德河谷的一位共和党房屋建筑商告诉他，移民执法让建筑工人感到恐慌，导致招工难度增加，这促使他首次考虑投票给民主党。
但他表示，虽然移民问题加剧了选民不满，但经济担忧仍然是主要动力。
“他们首先关心的始终是物价和工资，”他说。
在罗查看来，拉美裔越来越像摇摆选民，并且展现出在民主党和共和党之间摇摆的意愿。
“这不是党派重组；而是党派瓦解，”罗查说。
他表示自己正在全国参与21场国会选区选举，包括几个拉美裔人口众多的竞争激烈的选区。他承认，自己的评估来自他为民主党候选人提供咨询的工作。
得州民主党众议员华金·卡斯特罗认为，移民而非仅仅经济担忧，是拉美裔选民积极性提高的主要因素。
“我觉得这主要是因为美国移民和海关执法局（ICE）以及他们如何针对得州和全国的拉美裔社区，而该社区站出来表示受够了，”卡斯特罗说。
“食品价格高，汽油价格高，但我国过去也经历过其他经济困难时期，我们从未见过现在这种拉美裔选民投票率的激增。”
卡斯特罗周五在访问南得州的迪利移民处理中心后接受了CBS新闻采访，该中心关押着带孩子的无证家庭。他表示，他前一天还访问了卡恩斯县移民处理中心，描述那里在押人员绝大多数是拉美裔男性。
他认为拉美裔男性尤其直接受到政府移民执法行动的影响。
“他们觉得自己被当成了罪犯，因此奋起反抗，”卡斯特罗说。“我觉得共和党将在周二付出沉重而惨痛的代价。”
不过卡斯特罗也表示，他与担忧移民待遇问题的白人得州人交谈过。
“这件事以超越种族和族裔的方式打动了人们，”他说。
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得州民主党众议员华金·卡斯特罗在圣安东尼奥与伊诺霍萨一同参加街区步行竞选活动时发言。克里斯托弗·李/彭博社 via Getty Images
罗查表示，在本次选举周期，民主党对拉美裔的宣传投入也高于以往选举，过去的竞选活动往往要等到最后几周才把现有的英语广告翻译成西班牙语。
例如，塔拉里科的竞选团队投入80万美元赞助世界杯广告，包括西班牙语广告，通过拉美裔观众收看的节目与他们沟通。
伊诺霍萨的[竞选团队在]墨西哥拳击巨星卡内洛·阿尔瓦雷斯与克里斯蒂安·姆比利的周六比赛期间投放了一则广告，试图接触拉美裔男性选民。
两位民主党候选人还与拉美裔社交媒体网红合作，包括卡洛斯·爱德华多·埃斯皮纳，他的线上粉丝群体让他们得以接触到竞选团队历来难以触及的西班牙语受众。
共和党并不确定
共和党官员及其盟友对拉美裔男性选民出现重大立场转变持怀疑态度。
保守派拉美裔倡导组织LIBRE倡议总裁丹尼尔·加扎表示，他在自己居住的南得州没有看到民主党出现支持率激增的迹象。
“没有支持民主党的热情，”加扎说，他的基地位于伊达尔戈县的米申市。“我觉得大多数选民都无法说出民主党降低物价的计划是什么。”
加扎是前乔治·W·布什政府官员，他认为民主党对拉美裔男性的宣传，在这个许多人从事能源、执法和联邦机构工作的地区不太可能奏效。
“我有六个侄子是边境特工，”他说。“你跟他们说不到一起。”
如果民主党有机会，加扎说，那更可能是在拉美裔女性选民身上，而非拉美裔男性。
意识形态和宗教也可能发挥作用。民意调查显示，高度虔诚的拉美裔[更可能投票给共和党]，而且即使是拉美裔民主党人[也往往比民主党整体更虔诚]。许多拉美裔美国人在[堕胎]等问题上持保守观点——虽然[多数拉美裔不认可]特朗普的移民政策，但也有部分人认可。
加扎还表示，共和党在拉美裔选民中的基本支持率在过去十年有所上升，导致民主党只能在更狭窄的摇摆选民范围内竞争。
“十年、十五年前，共和党的支持底线是25%。如今这个底线已经上升到35%到37%左右，”他说。
加扎谈到罗查和其他民主党战略家时说：“如果他们说的一切属实，他们应该在南得州占据主导地位。”
与罗查一样，加扎也看到拉美裔独立派对两党的不满加剧，但他认为这种动态有利于共和党候选人。
“我觉得拉美裔现在真正看重的是候选人的素质，而非政党，”他说。
这种不确定性反映在最近的民调中。
皮尤研究中心的一项全国调查显示，略超一半的拉美裔选民——即53%——对民主党持好感，超过了共和党的29%，但这也凸显出民主党可能面临的挑战：如何将不满转化为持久支持。
格兰德河谷的转变
提前投票数据已经显示，拉美裔人口众多的南得州，包括格兰德河谷地区，投票参与度有所提高。
根据得州州务卿办公室的数据，在提前投票第一周，伊达尔戈县和卡梅伦县有近15万选民提前投票，较2022年中期选举同期增长63%。
这种增长在两党都在争夺拉美裔选民的地区意义重大。2024年，特朗普赢得了这两个县，成为自1972年以来首位赢得伊达尔戈县的共和党总统候选人，以及自2004年以来首位赢得卡梅伦县的共和党总统候选人。
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众议员候选人鲍比·普利多在10月25日于得州韦斯拉科举行的Voto Latino“准备就绪。出发。投票。”中期选举前集会上与洛斯·蒂格雷斯·德尔·诺尔特乐队一同表演。美联社照片/迈克尔·冈萨雷斯
该地区尤为重要，因为它有几个竞争激烈的国会选区。共和党众议员莫妮卡·德拉·克鲁兹正与民主党、特哈诺音乐明星鲍比·普利多展开激烈角逐，民主党众议员维森特·冈萨雷斯则与共和党人埃里克·弗洛雷斯竞争。
在最近接受CBS新闻采访时，普利多描述了移民政策对选区的影响，称由于“美国移民和海关执法局的强硬执法”，“街头一片混乱”。支持普利多的广告通常聚焦于移民政策。
德拉·克鲁兹也告诉CBS新闻，“执法应该针对贩毒集团和罪犯，而非辛勤工作的移民家庭。”她仍然预测得州将保持红州地位。
“但我确实认为，这对共和党是一个警醒，要继续关注生活成本问题，并就移民问题达成解决方案，”她说。
去年的十年中期选区重划带来了另一个层面的问题。在2024年赢得拉美裔选民支持后，特朗普的推动下，得州共和党人将冈萨雷斯的选区和其他几个选区变得[更偏向共和党]，这是一场赌注。
这些调整旨在提高共和党在几位表现强劲的总统候选人所在选区的获胜几率。但民主党认为，拉美裔政治偏好的转变可能会让这一策略复杂化。
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得州共和党众议员莫妮卡·德拉·克鲁兹在10月13日于麦卡伦举行的竞选活动后，与共和党众议员候选人塔诺·蒂赫里纳和埃里克·弗洛雷斯一同向媒体发言，此前的活动与众议院议长迈克·约翰逊共同出席。迈克尔·冈萨雷斯/盖蒂图片社
提前投票数据显示投票参与度提高，但并未表明这些选民支持哪个政党，也未表明参与度提高是否会对民主党或共和党有利。
共和党警告不要过度解读早期数据。
一位参与多个国会选区竞选的资深共和党战略家驳斥了民主党的乐观情绪，称其“来自过去十年一直轻视拉美裔选民的那些人”。
“我认为拉美裔对高油价感到不满吗？当然，”这位战略家说。但他认为，不满并不意味着民主党会取得明显胜利。
该战略家指出了格兰德河谷长期以来存在的跨党派投票历史。他指出，2024年，特朗普赢得了伊达尔戈县，而民主党众议员候选人米歇尔·巴列霍和冈萨雷斯在该县获得了多数支持。冈萨雷斯最终赢得了选举，而巴列霍输给了德拉·克鲁兹。
“所以，我们很可能会在州长选举以下的选票中跨党派投票，即使他们投票给塔拉里科，”他说。
对罗查来说，更大的问题是，民主党在11月可能取得的任何成果能否持续到2028年总统选举。
“我们现在已经证明，这是一个非常摇摆不定的选民群体，会来回转变，”他说。
Why some Texas Democrats are forecasting a “Hispanic hurricane” in midterms
2026-11-02T16:30:00-0500 / CBS News
Two years ago, President Trump made historic gains with Hispanic voters nationwide and won a majority of Texas Hispanics, upending conventional wisdom and setting back the Democratic Party’s hopes of making the state competitive.
But now, Hispanics may be coming back.
They’re frustrated with the state of the economy and concerned about the Trump administration’s immigration policies. These factors and Mr. Trump’s sagging approval ratings are giving Democrats hope in [Texas’ competitive Senate, House and governor’s races].
“There’s a Hispanic hurricane coming,” said Democratic strategist and CBS News political contributor Chuck Rocha, who advises the Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates in Texas. “We just don’t know quite yet if it’s going to be Category 2 or Category 5, but it’s washing ashore right in front of the GOP, and they don’t know what to do about it.”
But Republicans say enthusiasm for Democrats is still muted.
An estimated 39 million Hispanic Americans are eligible to vote, an increase of about 5.2 million since 2022, according to the [Pew Research Center]. Democrats once viewed Latinos as a built-in advantage, predicting that they’d give the party an edge and make some states competitive.
But in 2024, Mr. Trump won about 48% of the group, up 12 points from 2020 and 20 points from 2016, according to [Pew’s analysis of validated voters], largely for the same reasons Republicans are losing them now — the economy and immigration policy. Mr. Trump won Hispanic men by two points, despite [losing them] by 17 points in 2020.
The gains were even more pronounced in Texas, where Mr. Trump won approximately 55% of Hispanic voters in 2024, according to exit polling, turning blue counties in the state’s Rio Grande Valley region light red.
But now, Mr. Trump’s approval rating among Latinos [stands at 24%], as of early October, with just 57% of Latinos who voted for the president in 2024 approving of his job performance — down from 93% in February 2025. And 51% of Latino voters said they planned to vote for a Democratic House candidate, compared to 24% who planned to vote for a Republican.
The group — which makes up [more than 30%] of Texas’ eligible electorate — could prove pivotal in Texas’ closely watched Senate and gubernatorial races.
Six in 10 Hispanic voters planned to vote for Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in an October [CBS News poll]. Hispanic voters favored Democrat Gina Hinojosa for governor over incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott by a similar margin.
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Democratic Texas gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa and Senate candidate James Talarico hold a campaign event in San Antonio on Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026. AP Photo/Eric Gay
Hinojosa offered her own explanation for Mr. Trump’s success with Hispanic voters in 2024 — and why they may shift back.
“The reason why Trump won, and why he was able to capture the Latino vote in the Valley and in Texas, is because he said the system is rigged – and he’s right. Democrats had been defending a system that is indefensible, that is actually working against us,” Hinojosa told CBS News.
She continued: “People feel betrayed. In this high-cost economy, people just want to know: are you going to work to make my life easier? Greg Abbott has been in charge for 12 years, and it is harder than ever to make it in Texas.”
Mr. Trump has defended his administration’s record with Hispanics.
In Corpus Christi, Texas, he touted Latinos’ economic success, pointing out at a rally for Paxton and other Republicans that Hispanic American poverty fell to its lowest level in history last year, to 13.9% from 15.1% in 2024, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
The president urged Texans to turn out for Republicans, arguing that Democratic policies would threaten the state’s economy and endanger border security.
He dismisses suggestions that his support among Hispanic voters is slipping, and when asked about it, he pushed back.
“I won Hispanics,” Mr. Trump said in mid-October. “I’ve done more than any other Republican in history. I got tremendous Hispanics.”
The competing messages illustrate the political stakes for both parties in Texas, where no Democrat has won statewide office since 1994 and no Democrat has won a Senate election since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
The outcome could have consequences well beyond Texas. Competitive congressional districts in California, Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania have substantial Latino populations, making even modest changes in voting preferences politically consequential.
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President Trump listens as Texas Senate candidate and state Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks at a campaign rally at the Port of Corpus Christi on Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026. AP Photo/Alex Brandon
“Monolithically mad”
Rocha said, “Latinos in Texas have probably moved more right than almost any state,” but added that conservative, liberal and independent Hispanics are now really concerned about the economy.
“They’re more monolithic than I have ever seen in my life, and they’re monolithically mad,” said Rocha, the president and founder of Solidarity Strategies.
Rocha said rising prices, fuel costs and affordability are driving much of that frustration — the same issues that have animated voters nationwide. Concerns about immigration policy are [adding to unease among some Hispanic voters], especially in South Texas.
He mentioned a Republican homebuilder in the Rio Grande Valley who told him that immigration enforcement had frightened construction workers, making it harder to find labor and prompting him to consider voting Democratic for the first time.
But while immigration is contributing to voter dissatisfaction, he said economic concerns remain the principal motivation.
“Their first thing is always going to be prices and paycheck,” he said.
In Rocha’s view, Hispanics have increasingly looked like swing voters, and have demonstrated a willingness to move between Democrats and Republicans.
“It’s not a realignment; it’s a dealignment,” Rocha said.
He says he is working on 21 congressional races nationally, including several competitive districts with significant Hispanic populations. He acknowledged that his assessment comes from his work advising Democratic candidates.
Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro of Texas believes immigration, rather than economic concerns alone, is the principal factor behind the heightened engagement among Hispanic voters.
“I think it’s mostly because of ICE and how they have targeted the Latino community in Texas and across the country, and it’s the community standing up and saying enough,” Castro said.
“Grocery prices are high, gas prices are high, but there have been other difficult times, economic times in our nation, and we’ve not seen the same kind of surge of Hispanic voting that we’re seeing now.”
Castro spoke to CBS News Friday, shortly after visiting the Dilley Immigration Processing Center in South Texas, where undocumented families with children are detained. He said he also visited the Karnes County Immigration Processing Center a day earlier, describing a detainee population made up overwhelmingly of Hispanic men.
He argued that Hispanic men have especially been directly affected by the administration’s immigration enforcement operations.
“They feel like they’ve been treated like they’re all criminals, and they’re pushing back,” Castro said. “And I think that the Republican Party is going to pay a very deep, hard price on Tuesday.”
But Castro also said he’s talked with White Texans concerned about how immigrants are being treated.
“It has moved people in a way that transcends race and ethnicity,” he said.
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Texas Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro speaks during a block walk campaign event with Hinojosa in San Antonio on Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026. Christopher Lee / Bloomberg via Getty Images
Democrats have also invested more heavily in Latino outreach this cycle than in previous elections, when campaigns frequently waited until the final weeks to translate existing English-language advertisements into Spanish, Rocha says.
For instance, Talarico’s campaign invested $800,000 in World Cup advertising, including Spanish-language ads, to communicate with Hispanic voters through programming they were watching.
Hinojosa’s [campaign ran an ad] during Mexican boxing superstar Canelo Álvarez’s fight against Christian Mbilli on Saturday, to try to reach Hispanic men.
Both Democrats have also worked with Latino social media influencers, including Carlos Eduardo Espina, whose online following gives them access to Spanish-speaking audiences that campaigns have historically struggled to reach.
Republicans aren’t so sure
GOP officials and their allies say they’re skeptical about a shift of any significance among Latino male voters.
Daniel Garza, president of the LIBRE Initiative, a conservative Latino advocacy group, said he sees little evidence of a Democratic surge in South Texas, where he lives.
“There is no pro-Democrat enthusiasm,” said Garza, who is based in Mission, in Hidalgo County. “I think most voters couldn’t tell you what the Democrat plan is for bringing down prices.”
Garza, a former George W. Bush White House official, argued that Democrats’ outreach to Latino men in particular is unlikely to pay off in a region where many work in energy, law enforcement and federal agencies.
“I have six nephews that are border agents,” he said. “You’re not speaking to them.”
If Democrats have an opening, Garza said, it is more likely with Latina women than with Latino men.
Ideology and religion could also play a role. Highly religious Hispanics are [more likely to vote Republican], and even Hispanic Democrats [tend to be more religious] than the party overall, according to polling data. Plenty of Hispanic Americans also hold conservative views on issues like [abortion] — and while [a majority of Hispanics do not approve] of Mr. Trump’s immigration policies, [some do].
Garza also argued that Republicans’ baseline of Hispanic support has risen over the past decade, leaving Democrats to fight over a narrower slice of swing voters.
“Ten, 15 years ago, the floor for Republicans was at 25%. That floor has moved up to like 35 to 37%,” he said.
Referring to Rocha and other Democratic strategists, Garza said, “If everything they say is true, they should be dominating down here in South Texas.”
Like Rocha, Garza sees Latino independents growing frustrated with both parties, but he believes that dynamic favors strong Republican candidates.
“I think Latinos are really looking at the quality of a candidate now, as opposed to parties,” he said.
That uncertainty is reflected in recent polling.
A nationwide [Pew Research Center survey] found just over half of Hispanic voters — 53% — have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, outpacing the GOP’s 29% but still highlighting the challenge Democrats may face in translating dissatisfaction into lasting support.
Shifts in the Rio Grande Valley
Early voting figures already point to heightened participation in heavily Hispanic South Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley.
Nearly 150,000 voters cast early ballots in Hidalgo and Cameron counties during the first week of early voting, a 63% increase over the comparable period in the 2022 midterm elections, based on figures reported to the Texas Secretary of State’s office.
The increase is significant in a region where both parties are competing for Hispanic voters. Mr. Trump carried both counties in 2024, becoming the first Republican presidential candidate to win Hidalgo County since 1972 and the first to carry Cameron County since 2004.
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House candidate Bobby Pulido performs with Los Tigres Del Norte at the Voto Latino “Ready. Go. Vote.” rally ahead of the midterm elections on Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026, in Weslaco, Texas. AP Photo/Michael Gonzalez
The region is especially important because it’s home to several competitive House districts. GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz is in a tight battle against Democrat and Tejano music star Bobby Pulido, and Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is running against Republican Eric Flores.
In a recent interview with CBS News, Pulido described the impact of immigration policy on the district, saying “there’s chaos in the streets” due to “aggressive ICE enforcement.” Pro-Pulido advertisements have often focused on immigration policy.
De La Cruz also told CBS News that “enforcement should focus on the cartels and the criminals, not hardworking immigrant families.” She still predicted Texas would remain red.
“But I do think that it’s a wake-up call for Republicans to remain focused on affordability, and to come to a solution when it comes to immigration,” she said.
Last year’s mid-decade redistricting push adds another dimension. Texas Republicans made Gonzalez’s district and several others [redder], a gambit carried out at Mr. Trump’s urging following his 2024 gains among Hispanic voters.
Those changes were designed to improve Republican prospects in several districts where the president performed strongly. But Democrats believe shifting Hispanic political preferences could complicate that strategy.
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Texas Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz speaks to the media as GOP House candidates Tano Tijerina and Eric Flores look on, following a campaign event with House Speaker Mike Johnson on Oct. 13, 2026, in McAllen, Texas. Michael Gonzalez / Getty Images
Early turnout figures indicate increased voter engagement, but don’t establish which party those voters are supporting or whether higher participation will benefit Democrats or Republicans.
And Republicans caution against reading too much into early numbers.
A senior GOP strategist, involved in several House races, dismissed Democrats’ optimism as “coming from the same people that have taken Hispanic voters for granted for the last decade.”
“Do I think Hispanics are upset over the high gas prices? Absolutely,” the strategist said. But he argued that frustration does not amount to a clear victory for Democrats.
The strategist pointed to the Rio Grande Valley’s history of ticket-splitting. In 2024, he noted, Mr. Trump carried Hidalgo County even as Democratic House candidates Michelle Vallejo and Gonzalez won majorities there. Gonzalez won his race overall, while Vallejo lost to De La Cruz.
“So for all we know they could be splitting ticket down ballot even if they’re coming out for Talarico,” he said.
For Rocha, the larger question is whether any gains Democrats make this November can be sustained through the 2028 presidential election.
“We’ve now proven this is a very swingy electorate that moves back and forth,” he said.