2026-09-30T21:24:00-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
作者：卡特里娜·考夫曼、莱利·卡兰南
更新时间：2026年9月30日 / 美国东部夏令时晚上10:11 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）
“前往萨拉索塔？跟罗杰·马歇尔参议员打个招呼吧。”
周二晚间，堪萨斯州街头出现了带有这句标语的彩色广告牌，该州参议院竞选活动迎来了近一个世纪以来最激烈的一次角逐。
广告牌上的现任共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔身着夏威夷衬衫，躺在躺椅上，背景是热带风光。该广告牌由支持民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿牧师的超级政治行动委员会“联合未来政治行动委员会”（United Futures PAC）投放，目的是强化民主党核心攻击点：马歇尔与堪萨斯民众脱节。
他们希望这一信息能引起共鸣。
“眼下汉密尔顿占据了天时地利，”堪萨斯州托皮卡市 Washburn 大学政治学系主任鲍勃·比蒂说道，“毫无疑问，他能赢。”
他指出特朗普总统的不受欢迎、农业部门陷入困境，以及汉密尔顿能争取到温和派共和党人的支持，都是可能促成该席位政党更迭的因素。汉密尔顿今年4月宣布参选参议员时，才刚从共和党转投民主党。
尽管特朗普2024年在堪萨斯州以16个百分点的优势获胜，但他的支持率已跌至39%。伊朗冲突推高燃油价格，加上关税政策，重创了该州两大最可靠的共和党票仓：农场主和牧场主的收入。
根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，为卡车和重型农业机械提供动力的柴油价格较一年前上涨了79%，仅在过去30天内就飙升了近1美元，导致秋收利润预期大幅下滑。
此外，特朗普暂停对300公吨阿根廷牛肉征收关税以平抑物价的决定，也损害了牧场主的利益。如今牧场主每头牛面临的损失高达600美元。
特朗普政府的移民政策同样造成了经济损失——近期堪萨斯州西部发生了多起美国移民及海关执法局（ICE）突袭行动，引发了部分行业领袖的强烈抗议，他们表示劳动力受损将推高牛肉价格。
针对行业反应，马歇尔与特朗普保持了距离。他在X平台的帖子中驳斥了突袭行动：“移民海关执法局在堪萨斯州开展行动时，必须与当地执法部门协调。”
马歇尔总体上为特朗普的伊朗战略辩护，并预测战争结束后能源价格将会下跌。他在本月早些时候的一场辩论中表示：“我和所有人一样，都希望这场战争尽快结束。”
曾在众议院代表堪萨斯州的马歇尔2020年以11个百分点的优势当选参议员，如今正在竞选连任。但自1932年以来，堪萨斯州从未选出过民主党参议员，历史不利于汉密尔顿。
“如果是在其他州，他会是毫无争议的领跑者，”比蒂说道，“但鉴于堪萨斯州的历史，人们要等到结果出炉才会相信。”
近期民调显示，这位领导堪萨斯州最大联合卫理公会教堂的牧师汉密尔顿拥有一战之力。最新民调显示双方几乎势均力敌：9月中旬发布的艾默生学院/内克斯塔民调显示，汉密尔顿以45%比43%小幅领先马歇尔，考虑到该民调3.6个百分点的误差幅度，结果属于统计意义上的平局。库克政治报告和萨巴托水晶球近期均将该席位的评级从“倾向共和党”调整为“略倾向共和党”。
作为政坛新手，汉密尔顿创立了复活联合卫理公会教堂，该教会称其在堪萨斯城地区拥有超过2.3万名成员和9个教区。他自称是中间派。
马歇尔则将汉密尔顿描述为“面具正在滑落”的自由派民主党人。周一，他在X平台发帖称：“别搞错了：亚当·汉密尔顿是激进的民主党人，他的布道内容与民主党党纲如出一辙”——并指出汉密尔顿曾在布道中谈及气候变化和多元化等议题。针对汉密尔顿的攻击广告将其描绘成利用大型教会牟取暴利的“万能推销员”。
汉密尔顿试图将马歇尔与特朗普的政绩绑定，将其描述为华盛顿的傀儡，与堪萨斯民众的关切脱节。
但部分专家仍对汉密尔顿能否赢得全州支持持怀疑态度。
“很多选民很难跨越党派界限，”密苏里大学堪萨斯城分校政治学教授格雷格·沃纳赫说道。
“尽管民主党人对汉密尔顿感到乐观，但我认为他们内心深处也在想‘我们以前见过这种情况’，”他补充道，“堪萨斯州东部和约翰逊县的政治态势，往往与西部堪萨斯州的舆论氛围大相径庭。”
在堪萨斯城和威奇托投放的广告牌，提及了马歇尔在佛罗里达州萨拉索塔的度假屋。汉密尔顿经常以此攻击，称马歇尔拥有更值钱的房产，在佛罗里达州停留的时间比在堪萨斯州还多。马歇尔称其萨拉索塔的住宅在飓风中受损，两年来一直无法居住，并于今年3月挂牌出售。
“罗杰·马歇尔每六年向堪萨斯州民众请求选票，之后就前往他在佛罗里达州的家，远离受关税、伊朗冲突和生活成本上涨冲击的农业城镇和小城市，”联合未来政治行动委员会的一位发言人表示，“我们的广告牌提醒选民，这位参议员已经选定了更愿意待的地方，而在11月，选民将决定是否让他彻底前往佛罗里达州。”
费尔南多·莱昂 摄
在近期堪萨斯州博览会上的一场辩论中，针对对方对其第二处住宅的攻击，马歇尔进行了反击，指出汉密尔顿——他称其为“非常成功的大型教会CEO”——拥有四处住宅。汉密尔顿表示，其中两处房产是为女儿们购买的。
马歇尔对着起哄的观众表示，他的住宅“沿着碎石路开车只需一小时”，占地320英亩。他解释说，自己在佛罗里达州停留是为了看望孙辈。
“你根本不住在这里！”人群高呼。
马歇尔的对手还抓住了他自2025年以来未在堪萨斯州举办过市政厅会议一事——当时他在一场充满激烈交锋的市政厅活动中中途离场。据《章克申城邮报》报道，马歇尔曾表示，线下市政厅会议“变得毫无成效且充满危险”。
随着经济负担能力和医疗保健成为中期选举的关键议题，作为前妇产科医生的马歇尔存在一个潜在弱点：《纽约时报》的一篇报道披露，他曾因医疗账单起诉患者。
20多年来，马歇尔一直拥有或共同拥有堪萨斯州大本德市的“心脏地带地区妇产科诊所”（Heartland Regional OBGYN）。据《纽约时报》的调查，他和其律师曾就未结清的账单起诉患者，涉及700名患者，并扣押了他们的工资。其中81名患者因错过法院出庭日期被逮捕。该报报道称，这些患者大多来自堪萨斯州农村地区，其中一些是低收入产妇，她们的分娩费用逾期未付。
汉密尔顿的竞选广告中一段关于马歇尔追讨债务行为的视频走红，广告中一名曾是患者的女性表示，自己怀孕8个月时因拖欠50美元付款而被捕。马歇尔的律师已向汉密尔顿发送停止侵权函，称该广告虚假且“诽谤性”。
“多年来，马歇尔一直自称‘马歇尔医生’，塑造乡村医生的形象，”比蒂解释道，“因此，‘马歇尔医生逮捕孕妇或给新手妈妈戴上手铐’的说法已成为一大争议点。”
马歇尔对这些指控进行了反驳。在堪萨斯州博览会上的辩论中，他表示自己的医疗诊所为许多患者提供了免费治疗，他“接诊了所有上门的患者”，但“就像其他企业一样，我们最终不得不将部分患者移交催收机构，这是常见的商业惯例”。
艾米丽·库里尔/《堪萨斯城星报》/论坛新闻服务；奇普·索莫德维拉/盖蒂图片社 摄
汉密尔顿希望说服占堪萨斯州选民45%的共和党人，在投票时忽略他的党派身份。他曾考虑以独立候选人身份参选，但表示在围绕堪萨斯州开展的18城巡回倾听会后，决定以民主党人身份参选。
但在选举日，汉密尔顿的获胜之路依然艰难。他需要动员占选民24%的民主党人踊跃投票，同时赢得该州大多数无党派选民的支持，并拿下25%的共和党选民。他希望争取到家乡所在的堪萨斯城地区的温和派共和党人，这里也是他教会的所在地，但拿下25%的共和党选票仍是一项艰巨任务。
他能否争取到中部和西部堪萨斯州的共和党人，仍有待观察。
上周，共和党初选对手阿奇·纳拉莫尔背书了汉密尔顿。此前，该州受欢迎的前共和党州长比尔·格雷夫斯也跨党派支持汉密尔顿。
但共和党已派出最重磅的明星人物协助马歇尔连任。副总统J·D·万斯本月在该州与马歇尔共同开展竞选活动。特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室录制的视频中宣布“完全彻底背书”马歇尔，称汉密尔顿是“激进左翼疯子”，并告诉堪萨斯州民众，马歇尔“永远不会让你们失望”。
但 Washburn 大学的比蒂对总统的支持能给马歇尔带来多大帮助表示怀疑：“特朗普并没有给马歇尔帮上忙。”
Republican-turned-Democrat aims to flip Kansas Senate seat blue for first time in over 90 years
2026-09-30T21:24:00-0400 / CBS News
By Katrina Kaufman, Riley Callanan
Updated on: September 30, 2026 / 10:11 PM EDT / CBS News
“Traveling to Sarasota? Say hi to Senator Roger Marshall.”
Colorful billboards popped up in Kansas with that slogan Tuesday night, as the state’s Senate race heats up for the first time in nearly a century.
The billboards depict the incumbent Republican senator, Roger Marshall, wearing a Hawaiian shirt and lounging in a beach chair against a tropical backdrop. Placed by United Futures PAC, a super PAC supporting his Democratic opponent, Rev. Adam Hamilton, it’s an attempt to hammer home one of Democrats’ main attacks: that Marshall is out of touch with Kansans.
It’s a message they hope will resonate.
“Right now there’s a perfect storm for Hamilton,” said Bob Beatty, chair of the Department of Political Science at Washburn University in Topeka, Kansas. “There’s no doubt he can win.”
He pointed to President Trump’s unpopularity, a troubled agriculture sector and Hamilton appealing to moderate Republicans as factors that could flip the seat. Hamilton only switched his party affiliation from Republican to Democratic in April, when he declared his Senate candidacy.
Although Mr. Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024, his approval rating has fallen to 39%, as high fuel prices from the Iran war and tariffs cut into the bottom lines of two of the most reliable Republican voting blocs in the state: farmers and ranchers.
According to AAA, the price of diesel — which fuels trucks and heavy farm machinery — is up 79% compared to a year ago, and jumped nearly a dollar in just the last 30 days, throwing harvest profit projections into a downward spiral.
And Mr. Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on 300 metric tons of Argentine beef to bring down prices has hurt ranchers, who are now facing losses of up to $600 per head.
The Trump administration’s immigration policies are also taking an economic toll — a recent string of unexpected Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids in western Kansas caused an outcry from some industry leaders, saying the hit to their workforces will lead to higher beef prices.
Following the industry reaction, Marshall distanced himself from Mr. Trump. He pushed back on the raids in a post on X: “When ICE operates in Kansas, it needs to coordinate with our local law enforcement.”
Marshall has generally defended Mr. Trump’s Iran strategy, and predicted energy prices would drop after the war ends. He said in a debate earlier this month: “I want the war to be over as soon as anybody does.”
Marshall, who previously represented Kansas in the House, was elected to the Senate in 2020 by an 11-point margin and is now running for his second term. But in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, history is against Hamilton.
“If this were another state besides Kansas, he’d be the clear frontrunner,” said Beatty. “But because of Kansas’ history, people aren’t going to believe it until it happens.”
Recent polls show Hamilton, a pastor who leads the largest United Methodist church in Kansas, has a fighting chance. The most recent polls show a virtually tied race: An Emerson College/Nexstar poll released in mid-September showed Hamilton slightly ahead of Marshall at 45% to 43%, a statistical tie for a poll with a 3.6-point margin of error. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have recently changed their race ratings from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
A political novice, Hamilton founded the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, which says it has more than 23,000 members and nine locations across the Kansas City area. He describes himself as a centrist.
Marshall has characterized Hamilton as a liberal Democrat whose “mask is slipping.” On Monday, he posted on X: “Make no mistake: Adam Hamilton is a radical Democrat, and his sermons are identical to the Democratic Party platform” — pointing to sermons in which Hamilton talked about issues like climate change and diversity. Attack ads against Hamilton paint him as a “snake oil salesman” profiting excessively from his megachurch.
Hamilton is attempting to tie Marshall to Mr. Trump’s track record, painting him as a puppet of Washington, disconnected from the concerns of Kansans.
But some experts remain skeptical that Hamilton will be able to win over the entire state.
“It’s hard for a lot of voters to cross party lines,” said Greg Vonnahe, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City.
“While Democrats feel optimistic about Hamilton, in the back of their minds I think they’re also thinking ‘we’ve seen a version of this before,’” he added. “Sometimes the way politics look in Eastern Kansas and Johnson County can be really different from what the conversation is in Western Kansas.”
The billboards, displayed in Kansas City and Wichita, refer to Marshall’s vacation home in Sarasota, Florida, which Hamilton often raises, alleging that Marshall owns more valuable property and spends more time in Florida than Kansas. His Sarasota home, which Marshall says sustained hurricane damage and has been uninhabitable for two years, was listed for sale in March.
“Roger Marshall asks Kansans for their votes every six years and then heads down to his home in Florida, a long way from the farm towns and small cities hit hard by tariffs, the war in Iran and rising costs,” said a spokesperson for United Futures PAC. “Our billboard reminds voters that their senator has already chosen where he’d rather be, and in November they get to decide whether to send him to Florida full time.”
A billboard in Kansas City, Kansas. Fernando Leon
During a recent debate at the Kansas State Fair, Marshall retaliated against jabs about his second home, pointing out that Hamilton — whom he called a “very successful megachurch CEO” — owns four homes. Hamilton said two of the homes were purchased for his daughters.
Marshall told a jeering audience that his home was “a short hour’s drive down a gravel road here” and sits on 320 acres. He explained he spent time in Florida to see his grandchildren.
“You don’t live here!” chanted the crowd.
Marshall’s opponents have also seized on the fact that he has not held a town hall in Kansas since 2025 — when he walked out of one after some contentious exchanges. He has said that in-person town halls “became non-productive and dangerous,” according to the Junction City Post.
As affordability and healthcare have become key issues in the midterms, a potential point of vulnerability for Marshall, a former obstetrician-gynecologist, is the revelation in a New York Times report that he has sued his patients over medical bills.
For over 20 years, Marshall owned or was co-owner of Heartland Regional OBGYN, a practice in Great Bend, Kansas. According to the Times investigation, he and his lawyers filed lawsuits against his patients over outstanding bills, suing 700 patients and garnishing their wages. Eighty-one of his patients were arrested for missing court dates. The Times reported that many of those patients were from rural Kansas, and some were low-income new mothers whose labor and delivery bills were overdue.
A viral Hamilton campaign ad about Marshall’s debt collection practices featured a former patient who said she was arrested while eight months pregnant for missing a $50 payment. Lawyers for Marshall sent a cease-and-desist letter to Hamilton, alleging that the ad is false and “defamatory.”
“Over the years Marshall has called himself Doc Marshall, building a brand as a country doctor,” explained Beatty, “so the idea of Doc Marshall arresting pregnant women or handcuffing new mothers has become a big issue.”
Marshall has pushed back on the allegations. During the Kansas State Fair debate, he said his medical practice gave free care to many patients and he “took everybody that walked through the door,” but “just like every other business, we had to, the common business practice, at the end of the day, turn some people to collections.”
Democratic Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton and incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall. Emily Curiel/The Kansas City Star/Tribune News Service and Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Hamilton is hoping that he can convince enough Republicans, who make up 45% of the Kansas electorate, to overlook his party affiliation when they go to the polls. He considered running as an independent, but says he decided to run as a Democrat based on feedback from an 18-city listening tour around Kansas.
But on Election Day, the path to winning for Hamilton will be steep. He will have to turn out the 24% of Democrats in the electorate in droves — as well as the majority of the state’s unaffiliated voters — and win 25% of Republicans. He’s hoping to win over moderate Republicans in the Kansas City area, where Hamilton is from and where his church is based, but 25% is still a tall order.
Whether he can turn out Republicans in central and western Kansas remains to be seen.
Last week, Marshall’s opponent in the Republican primary, Arch Naramore, endorsed Hamilton, soon after the state’s popular former GOP governor, Bill Graves, also crossed party lines to back Hamilton.
But Republicans have been throwing their biggest stars at helping Marshall win reelection. Vice President JD Vance campaigned with Marshall in the state in September. And Mr. Trump announced his “complete and total endorsement” for Marshall in a video recorded from the Oval Office, in which he called Hamilton a “radical left lunatic” and told Kansans that Marshall “will never ever let you down.”
But Washburn University’s Beatty expressed some doubt about how helpful the president’s support would be to Marshall: “Trump isn’t doing Marshall any favors.”