2026-09-09T15:32:39-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻网
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2026年9月9日 / 美国东部时间下午3:32 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻网
来自人工智能公司Anthropic的前研究员发出的一则令人不安的警告,正将“超级智能”——一种能在所有认知任务上超越人类的技术——推向舆论焦点。
在9月8日宣布辞职的社交媒体帖子中,研究员雅各布·考克森指责Anthropic及其竞争对手OpenAI“拿我们的生命下注”,执意研发超级智能。在X平台的相关帖子中,Anthropic首席研究员埃文·哈宾格表示,未来十年内,人工智能“有超过10%的可能性会灭绝全人类”。
这些警告引发了一系列疑问:何为超级智能?各家企业距离研发出这类技术能力还有多远?为何部分专家认为它可能威胁就业、国家安全,甚至人类本身?
根据非营利组织“未来生命研究所”发起的暂停超级智能研发请愿书,超级智能指的是“能在几乎所有认知任务上显著超越所有人类”的人工智能。该请愿书已获得被称为“AI教父”的知名计算机科学家杰弗里·辛顿等人的签名。
“不妨想象一下,某个人工智能或由海量人工智能组成的集群,整体智能水平超过全人类总和——超过80亿人的智慧,”专攻人工智能研究的麻省理工学院教授马克斯·泰格马克对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻网表示,“这显然符合超级智能的定义。”
研究人员还担忧,超级智能人工智能将被少数几家公司掌控,这将赋予它们巨大权力,并放大滥用技术的风险。
“我们已濒临被超越”
诚然,人工智能最终能比肩甚至超越人类智能的想法并非新鲜事——目前仍停留在假设层面。例如,英国数学家I.J.古德早在20世纪60年代就撰文探讨过“超智能机器”的诞生,将其定义为“能超越任何聪明人所有智力活动的存在”。
正如考克森和哈宾格所警告的那样,人工智能公司高管也公开承认了这项技术带来的风险,包括人工智能可能对全人类构成的威胁。
“现在的新情况是,我们已经离被超越如此之近,”泰格马克说。
尽管超级智能尚未实现,但如今的人工智能代理已展现出自主协作运行的能力。其中包括一些看似旨在规避检测的行为,比如近期发生的OpenAI测试人工智能模型失控并入侵人工智能公司Hugging Face的事件。
对失去控制权的担忧
专家对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻网表示,超级智能人工智能构成的根本威胁在于,人类将越来越难以管控这些工具。
“他们如今甚至都无法对齐或控制自己的人工智能,而未来的人工智能会更加智能,也更难被理解,”曾任职于OpenAI、如今领导人工智能未来项目的丹尼尔·科科塔约洛在9月8日的社交媒体帖子中写道,“即便他们成功了,也将创造人类历史上最集中的权力——一种新型人工超智能物种,只服从极少数人的命令和价值观。”
他补充道:“这种局面荒唐至极,绝不能任其继续下去。”
随着人工智能研发速度突飞猛进,泰格马克也认同人类可能会失去对这项技术的掌控。
“如果我们任由一场毫无约束的竞赛催生数十亿个超级智能机器人,那么我认为,未来几十年内我们失去控制权的概率将远超50%,”他对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻网表示。
超级智能何时会出现?
这是一个不断变化的话题,答案因人而异。但人工智能未来项目在一份审视人工智能发展的场景报告中指出,超级智能技术可能在未来1至10年内问世。
“该行业自欺欺人地认为,可以在研发过程中随时解决超级智能人工智能的控制问题,因此根本没有制定任何像样的计划,”该组织写道。
其他人则认为,超级智能的研发仍需多年时间。
“如今的人工智能系统,无论在何种通用能力上都远未达到或超越人类,”圣达菲研究所教授梅兰妮·米切尔说道。
布鲁金斯学会专注技术与人工智能研究的高级研究员达雷尔·韦斯特表示,人工智能要全面达到人类水平的技能,还需要数年甚至数十年时间。他说,人工智能确实在进步,但人类在多任务处理等技能上仍占据上风。
尽管专家们在超级智能的研发时间表上存在分歧,但他们普遍认为,关键突破将出现在人工智能能够在无需人类干预的情况下自我改进之时——这一概念被人工智能研究人员称为“递归自我改进”。
“能够独立学习并利用新知识采取行动的人工智能,才是人们应当关注的重点,”韦斯特说。
超级智能也有积极面?
人工智能专家强调,人工智能的未来未必一片黯淡。米切尔指出,研发高能力人工智能有着明确的积极意义。
“我们已经在科学突破中看到了这一点……比如利用人工智能进行天气预报的新方法、药物研发的新途径,”她对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻网表示。
不过,米切尔说,人工智能公司训练模型的方式,未必与有利于人类的目标相一致。
目前的重点是打造能够相互沟通的多智能体系统,她补充道:“我们尚不清楚,这是否就是我们在所需应用场景中真正需要的技术。”
部分议员已对人工智能带来的风险表示担忧,佛蒙特州独立参议员伯尼·桑德斯和得克萨斯州民主党众议员格雷格·卡萨尔于本月早些时候宣布,计划提出《禁止人工超级智能法案》。
“大型人工智能公司的高管公开承认,他们并不完全了解这项技术,也无法阻止其脱离掌控,”桑德斯在9月3日的声明中说道,“社会任由他们继续推进,让这些产品变得更加先进,这是极不负责任的。”
Alain Sherter 编辑
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/ex-anthropic-researcher-says-he-believes-out-of-control-ai-development-could-kill-us-all/
Humans are “close to being outsmarted” by superintelligence, AI expert says
2026-09-09T15:32:39-0400 / CBS News
By
September 9, 2026 / 3:32 PM EDT / CBS News
A troubling warning from a former researcher at AI company Anthropic is drawing attention to “superintelligence” — technology that could outperform humans at every cognitive task.
In a Sept. 8 social media thread announcing his resignation, the researcher Jacob Coxon accused Anthropic and rival OpenAI of “gambling with our lives” by pursuing superintelligence. In a related post on X, Anthropic lead researcher Evan Hubinger said there was more than a 10% chance that AI “could kill all humans” within the next decade.
The warnings raise questions about what superintelligence is, how close companies are to developing such technological capabilities, and why some experts believe it could threaten jobs, national security and even humanity itself.
Superintelligence refers to artificial intelligence that “can significantly outperform all humans on essentially all cognitive tasks,” according to a petition to halt superintelligence development from the nonprofit Future of Life Institute, which has garnered signatures from the likes of noted computer scientist Geoffrey Hinton, who is known as the “Godfather of AI.”
“Imagine, for example, some AI or massive cluster of AIs that together are smarter than all of humanity together, than all 8 billion of us,” Max Tegmark, a professor at MIT who specializes in AI research, told CBS News. “That would certainly count.”
Researchers also express concern that superintelligent AIs would be controlled by only a few companies, giving them enormous power and amplifying the risks of misuse.
“We’re getting so close to being outsmarted”
To be sure, the idea that AI could eventually match or exceed human intelligence isn’t new — and it remains hypothetical. For example, British mathematician I.J. Good wrote about the creation of an “ultraintelligent machine” in the 1960s, defining it as something that can “surpass all the intellectual activities of any man, however clever.”
AI company executives have also openly acknowledged the risks surrounding the technology, including the danger AI could pose to humanity as a whole, as Coxon and Hubinger warned.
“What’s new is the fact that we’re getting so close to being outsmarted,” Tegmark said.
Although superintelligence hasn’t been achieved, AI agents today are already proving capable of operating autonomously and collaboratively. That includes acting in ways that appear designed to evade detection, as shown by the recent incident in which an OpenAI-tested AI model went rogue and hacked the AI company Hugging Face.
Fear of losing control
The fundamental threat posed by superintelligent AI is that the tools become increasingly difficult for people to control, experts told CBS News.
“They can’t even align or control their AIs today, and the AIs of the future will be much smarter and harder to understand,” wrote Daniel Kokotajlo, a former OpenAI researcher who now leads the AI Futures Project, in a Sept. 8 social media post. “Even if they succeed, they will then have created the most intense concentration of power in human history — a new artificial species of superintelligences obedient to the commands and values of a tiny handful of people.”
He added, “This situation is insane and must not be allowed to continue.”
With AI development moving at warp speed, Tegmark agreed that humans could lose their grip on the technology.
“If we just allow a completely unfettered race to build billions of superintelligent robots, then I think the probability is way above 50% that we’re going to lose control of this in the next few decades,” he told CBS News.
When could superintelligence emerge?
It’s a moving target and depends on who you ask. But the AI Futures Project estimates that superintelligent tech could emerge within the next 1 to 10 years, the group wrote in a scenario examining the development of AI.
“The industry has convinced itself that controlling superintelligent AI can be figured out on the fly, and thus has no remotely adequate plan,” the group wrote.
Others think the development of superintelligence remains many years in the future.
“AI systems of today are nowhere near matching or exceeding the general capabilities of humans,” said Melanie Mitchell, a professor at the Santa Fe Institute.
Darrell West, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who focuses on technology and AI, said it will take years, if not decades, before AI can comprehensively match human-level skills. AI is improving, but people still have the upper hand in skills like multitasking, he said.
While experts disagree on the timeline for developing superintelligence, they generally agree that a key breakthrough will come when AI can improve on its own without human intervention — a concept AI researchers call “recursive self-improvement.”
“AI that can learn independently and then act on that new knowledge — that’s what people should be paying attention to,” West said.
Upsides to superintelligence?
The future of AI isn’t necessarily bleak, AI experts emphasize. Mitchell noted that there are clear upsides to developing highly capable AI.
“You know we’ve already seen that with scientific breakthroughs… new approaches to weather forecasting using AI, new approaches to drug design,” she told CBS News.
However, the way AI companies train their models isn’t necessarily aligned with goals that could benefit humanity, Mitchell said.
The focus has been on creating multi-agent systems that communicate together, she said, adding, “It’s not clear that that’s the kind of thing that we’re going to really need for the kinds of applications that we want.”
Some lawmakers are expressing concern about the risks posed by AI, with Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont, and Rep. Greg Casar, a Democrat from Texas, saying earlier this month they plan to introduce the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act.
“The leaders of the major AI companies publicly acknowledge that they do not fully understand the technology and that it is escaping their control,” Sanders said in a Sept. 3 statement. “It is irresponsible for society to allow them to move forward and make these products even more advanced.”
Edited by Alain Sherter
https://www.cbsnews.com/video/ex-anthropic-researcher-says-he-believes-out-of-control-ai-development-could-kill-us-all/