2026-10-03T10:00:44.836Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/03/politics/florida-governor-race-byron-donalds-david-jolly
佛罗里达州北劳德代尔——
让·菲利普奥向戴维·乔利描述一则连续数周抨击佛罗里达州民主党州长候选人的电视广告时，语气中几乎难掩急迫之情。
这则广告声称乔利支持“飓风税”。乔利周四在南佛罗里达对菲利普奥和一众海地裔美国领袖及选民发表讲话时表示，这纯属虚假信息。
菲利普奥想要的不只是解释。“你打算何时回应那些你所谓的关于你的谎言？”
乔利向菲利普奥保证，反击广告很快就会播出。但他随后承认，在与共和党众议员拜伦·唐纳兹日益激烈的竞选中，一个更大的问题悬在头顶。
“我们无法像他那样扩大宣传规模，”乔利说，“这是资金问题。他很有钱。”
这段对话折射出民主党人高涨乐观情绪背后的现实。他们相信——许多共和党人也承认——乔利距离击败唐纳兹仅一步之遥，这在这个十年间共和党大举斩获席位、民主党基本已放弃的州，堪称非同寻常的进展。获得提名、将迎战共和党参议员阿什利·穆迪的民主社会主义者安吉·尼克松，也发起了一场充满活力的挑战，提振了民主党基本盘。让佛罗里达重新具备竞争力，其影响将远超今年的几场选举。
但资金并未跟上热情。
竞选财务报告显示，截至9月25日，唐纳兹及其关联政治委员会已筹集逾1.34亿美元，远超乔利的1660万美元。民主党各派系在这两场全州性竞选中基本都作壁上观。自由派捐赠者迄今也未涉足该州。
据竞选追踪公司AdImpact的数据，截至周四，乔利和民主党仅在佛罗里达购买了300万美元的电视广告时段。这一金额低于民主党候选人在除科罗拉多、马萨诸塞和纽约等几乎所有州长竞选广告投入——这些州均为铁定蓝营，胜选毫无悬念。尼克松同样面临资金劣势。
“我相信有组织的民众任何时候都能击败巨额资金，但眼下我们要对抗的是巨额资金，”尼克松周四在劳德代尔堡的一座黑人教堂对会众说，同时呼吁大家“拿出一点善款”。
佛罗里达以竞选广告成本高昂闻名，各方不愿在该州投入资金，凸显了民主党面临的更广泛财务困境：他们试图借有利的政治环境造势，但资金远不及总统唐纳德·特朗普及其政党。由于资源有限，民主党优先考虑了其他战场，包括一场耗资不菲的得克萨斯州参议院席位争夺战，这场竞选吸引了大量大小捐赠者的浓厚兴趣。
这些决定也反映出一种判断：曾经的紫色州佛罗里达已转向深红阵营，即便在民主党表现强劲的年份也难以翻盘。历史佐证了这种谨慎：佛罗里达人已有30年未选出民主党州长。
“如果你带着100美元去杂货店采购一周的食材，你会买苹果派吗？”奥兰多人身伤害律师、民主党大额捐赠者约翰·摩根说，“不会，你会说‘我们买牛奶、买肉、买蔬菜’。可能没有多余的钱买甜点了。”
“佛罗里达就是甜点，”他补充道，“得克萨斯才是肉类。”
2028年及以后
乔利曾公开和私下敦促民主党官员重新关注该州。他表示，他原本预计选情胶着会吸引民主党投入资金，甚至可能吸引越来越多的民主党总统竞选帮手前来助阵。
迄今为止，伊利诺伊州州长JB·普里茨克提供了最切实的援助。普里茨克今年早些时候与乔利一同竞选，并于上月向其政治委员会捐赠了5万美元。不过，这位凯悦酒店帝国的亿万富翁继承人的这笔捐款，仅占他投入自己连任竞选的6500万美元的零头，而这场竞选他预计将轻松获胜。前国会议员、芝加哥市长拉姆·伊曼纽尔——另一位潜在的2028年总统竞选人——将于下周与乔利一同竞选。
“我一直以为所有总统候选人都会决定来佛罗里达帮忙，”乔利说，“就算没别的原因，如果他们成为戴维·乔利的支持者，而戴维·乔利赢了，戴维·乔利会记得他们的帮助。我不是说这是交易。这只是那些想竞选总统的人的开明的自身利益。”
“如果佛罗里达选民证明我们再次成为摇摆州，并选出一位民主党州长，那么所有总统候选人，包括共和党人，未来两年都必须来这里，”他补充道。
民主党州长协会发言人凯文·多诺霍在一份声明中表示，该组织“准备好利用任何机会在竞选最后阶段真正发挥作用”，但并未承诺投入真金白银。
进步派、佛蒙特州参议员伯尼·桑德斯已承诺向尼克松捐赠25万美元，并将于本月晚些时候与她共同举行集会。但据一位知情人士透露，参议院民主党高层仍将注意力放在他们认为更有胜算的其他竞选上。
曾助力巴拉克·奥巴马总统成功赢得佛罗里达州竞选的资深民主党策略师史蒂夫·沙尔称，其所在政党的做法目光短浅。他表示，今年11月不在佛罗里达投入资金，会让民主党在2028年总统选举中更难在该州展开竞争，而2030年人口普查预计将重塑民主党获得270张选举人票的路径，此后的成本可能更高。
“我们必须赢下其他州，它们都在南方，”沙尔说，“而且我们在佛罗里达的成功次数比阳光地带其他任何地方都多。”
“在这个周期展现起色至关重要，”他补充道。
八年前，民主党撤离佛罗里达的情况似乎还难以置信。
该党在2018年州长和参议院选举中失利，但差距微乎其微。在投入数千万美元后遭遇的失败令人痛心。尽管如此，民主党人仍誓言重整旗鼓。
然而，失利接踵而至。四年后，德桑蒂斯以19个百分点的优势连任，这场溃败明确了佛罗里达从常年摇摆州转变为共和党堡垒的过程。到2024年总统选举时，全国民主党人几乎已完全放弃该州，特朗普以13个百分点的优势拿下该州。
不过，特朗普重返华盛顿，让佛罗里达民主党人重新思考该州究竟有多么遥不可及。
去年12月，迈阿密三十年来首次选出民主党市长。今年8月，民主党人在萨拉索塔县学区董事会选举中拿下席位，将保守派团体“妈妈为自由”的联合创始人之一赶下台。该党还在几场共和党占优的立法席位特别选举中获胜，包括包含海湖庄园的州众议院选区。
塑造全国中期选举的同样因素也在佛罗里达上演：共和党总统不受欢迎，民众对生活成本持续感到焦虑。与此同时，西班牙裔选民正表现出脱离特朗普的迹象，在这个西班牙裔选民占选民总数相当比例的州，这一转变可能产生重大影响。此外，佛罗里达长期陷入困境的财产保险市场，为选民增添了又一个经济不满源，也给应对这场危机的共和党人带来了更多不利因素。
数据中心成为另一个争议焦点。唐纳兹曾是数据中心扩张的热情支持者，如今却为那些抵制数据中心的地方政府辩护，此前他在初选中因该问题遭遇强烈反对。
佛罗里达州一位共和党筹款人告诉CNN，共和党人尚未恐慌，但他们越来越紧张。8月，尽管得到特朗普明确支持，唐纳兹在共和党初选中仍未能获得超过50%的选票，这加剧了这些担忧。德桑蒂斯也并未提供帮助，他直到初选结束后才背书唐纳兹，而这位即将卸任的州长最近几周几乎没有为这位有望接任他的共和党人助选。
特朗普最近也更加关注这场共和党原本以为能轻松拿下的竞选。上个月，他让唐纳兹在达拉斯的中期选举大会上发表演讲，特朗普称该演讲席位是留给“选情胶着的候选人”的。白宫周四派出副总统JD·万斯在佛罗里达中部为共和党人拉票，特朗普也宣布计划与唐纳兹一同竞选。
唐纳兹表示，他欢迎特朗普到访佛罗里达，并驳斥了这反映出共和党人对选情担忧的说法。
“总统在政治上一直很积极，”唐纳兹在奥卡卢萨县与共和党人会面后告诉CNN，该县是他8月未能拿下的几个潘汉德尔县之一。“他根本不是那种只会坐在场边、投放广告、袖手旁观的人。他喜欢全面参与。我们非常感激总统选择来到佛罗里达。”
唐纳兹说，他的民调支持率落后于两年前的特朗普和四年前的德桑蒂斯，因为他的知名度不够高。最近几周，他在全州积极竞选以提升知名度，并说服选民他关注他们的民生关切，尽管特朗普继续将这些问题斥为民主党对其经济政绩的政治攻击。
“这关乎团结我们的政党，同时始终聚焦影响所有佛罗里达人的民生问题，”唐纳兹说。
一些共和党人仍不确定唐纳兹能否团结起选举德桑蒂斯和特朗普的 coalition。唐纳兹的一位初选对手詹姆斯·菲什巴克仍在社交媒体和公开场合批评这位共和党候选人。
“（唐纳兹）能否团结共和党人存在疑问，”这位要求匿名以便自由谈论本党候选人的共和党筹款人说，“如果有候选人能拉走这些选民，那就是乔利。”
乔利曾以共和党身份代表坦帕湾地区进入国会，2016年连任失败。此后他成为有线电视新闻常客，经常批评特朗普，多年来一直考虑以第三方身份重返政坛。2025年4月，他登记为民主党人并宣布竞选州长。
这是佛罗里达民主党人之前走过的路。
前共和党州长查理·克里斯特改换党派，2014年竞选连任州长失败。民主党人2022年再次提名他，结果他以压倒性劣势输给德桑蒂斯。在这两场竞选之间，克里斯特在2016年众议院选举中击败了乔利。
民主党希望乔利的背景不仅能吸引温和派，还能吸引对特朗普感到失望的共和党人——在共和党选民比民主党多160万的州，他需要争取到相当比例的这类选民。与此同时，乔利的竞选团队依靠尼克松——一位黑人女性，多年来一直在杰克逊维尔开展组织工作——来动员该关键地区的新民主党人或近期未投票的选民。
唐纳兹及其盟友抓住乔利的政治转变，称他投机取巧、虚伪，是克里斯特的翻版。佛罗里达共和党主席埃文·鲍尔称乔利为“Temu查理”，意思是他的竞选是克里斯特2022年竞选的山寨版。
乔利对这类比较不屑一顾，坚称选民被他的务实作风所吸引。
“人们看着我十年来的经历，”乔利说，“我认为政治中的问题不是那些会改变的人，而是那些不愿改变的人。改变是我们竞选活动的优势之一。”
摩根表示，与克里斯特的比较只会让已经被过往经历打击过的捐赠者更难相信，这次佛罗里达真的不一样了。
“他们已经听过太多次‘佛罗里达已成摇摆州’的说法，问题变成了‘他们是不是又在喊狼来了’，”摩根说，他对民主党感到沮丧，甚至调侃要创建第三政党。
上月下旬，乔利抨击本党未在其竞选中投入资金，暗示如果他最终失利，民主党也难辞其咎。
但几天后，当他从珊瑚阁一家牛排店的筹款会议出来，和妻子劳拉一起登上一辆黑色SUV时，乔利听起来更乐观了。当天早上有一张100万美元的支票到账。
“我确实认为人们现在开始进来了，”他说，“而且我乐观地认为我们会看到更多资金涌入。”
他仍面临一场硬仗。截至9月中旬，乔利的政治委员会收到了18笔六位数或更高金额的捐款。唐纳兹的委员会则收到了超过300笔。
乔利表示，他有足够资金在电视上传播自己的竞选信息直至选举日。但他没有资金单独针对黑人选民、拉拢不满的共和党人，或持续攻击唐纳兹。
“我担心他会不受任何审查地轻松过关，”乔利说，“但我们只能控制我们能控制的。”
然而，乔利放弃了直接审查唐纳兹的最明确机会：辩论。他表示不会参加任何辩论，因为“这只会进一步分裂我们州和我们的政治，让两名候选人在台上互相叫嚷、争斗”。这一决定让一些民主党人感到困惑，也让唐纳兹的阵营感到震惊。
不过，周五，乔利终于在电视广告中回应了唐纳兹的一项指控。他的新广告反驳了乔利支持“飓风税”的说法，并称唐纳兹是“骗子”。
在北劳德代尔活动现场的菲利普奥担心这还不够。
“我一直在关注，”他说，“我认为他必须加大力度。”
CNN的戴维·赖特和莎拉·费里斯对本文亦有贡献。
Democrats dream of putting Florida back in play. Are they squandering their chance?
2026-10-03T10:00:44.836Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/03/politics/florida-governor-race-byron-donalds-david-jolly
North Lauderdale, Florida—
Jean Philippeaux could barely hide the urgency in his voice as he described to David Jolly a television ad that for weeks has hammered Florida’s Democratic nominee for governor.
The ad claims Jolly supports a “hurricane tax.” Jolly told Philippeaux and a room full of other Haitian American leaders and voters in South Florida on Thursday that it was patently false.
Philippeaux wanted more than an explanation. “When are you going to respond to what you call lies about you?”
A counter punch would arrive on the airwaves imminently, Jolly assured Philippeaux. But he then acknowledged the larger problem hanging over his increasingly competitive race against Republican Rep. Byron Donalds.
“We’re not going to be able to scale up the way he has,” Jolly said. “It’s a function of money. He has a lot of money.”
The exchange captured a reality tempering the surging optimism of Florida Democrats. They believe — and many Republicans concede — that Jolly is within striking distance of Donalds, a remarkable development in a state the party had largely written off after a decade of GOP gains. Angie Nixon, the democratic socialist nominated to face Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, has also mounted a spirited challenge that has energized the party’s base. Making Florida competitive again would carry implications for Democrats well beyond this year’s races.
But the money has not followed the enthusiasm.
Donalds and an aligned political committee had raised more than $134 million as of September 25, dwarfing Jolly’s $16.6 million., campaign finance reports show. The various arms of the Democratic Party have largely remained on the sidelines in both statewide contests. Liberal donors have so far skipped the state, too.
As it is, Jolly and Democrats had purchased just $3 million of airtime in Florida as of Thursday, according to the campaign tracking firm AdImpact. That is less than the Democratic candidates have spent on TV ads in all but a handful of governor races, including Colorado, Massachusetts and New York — solidly blue states where victory is overwhelmingly expected. Nixon has faced financial disadvantages as well.
“I believe that organized people will beat big money any day, but right now we’re going against gigantic money,” Nixon told members of a Black church in Fort Lauderdale on Thursday as she asked the congregation to part with “a little bit of treasure.”
The reluctance to invest in Florida, a notoriously expensive state for campaigns, is illustrative of the broader financial constraints that Democrats face as they try to capitalize on a favorable political environment with far less money than President Donald Trump and his party. With limited resources, Democrats have prioritized other battlegrounds, including a costly fight over a Texas Senate seat that has drawn intense interest from donors large and small.
Those decisions also reflect a calculation that once-purple Florida has turned a shade of red that might not flip to blue even in a strong Democratic year. History lends credence to that caution: Floridians haven’t elected a Democratic governor in 30 years.
“If you go to the grocery store with only $100 to buy groceries for the week, are you gonna buy the apple pie?” said John Morgan, an Orlando personal injury lawyer and Democratic megadonor. “No, you’re going to say, ‘let’s get the milk, let’s get the meat, let’s get the vegetables.’ There might not be enough money for dessert.”
“Florida is dessert,” he added. “Texas is meat.”
2028 and beyond
Jolly has publicly and privately urged Democratic officials to give the state another look. He expected a tightening race would draw them back in, he said, and perhaps even entice the growing list of Democratic presidential hopefuls to pitch in.
So far, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has offered the most tangible assistance. Pritzker campaigned with Jolly earlier this year and gave his political committee $50,000 last month. Still, for the billionaire heir to the Hyatt Hotel empire that contribution amounted to a fraction of the $65 million he has funneled into his own reelection, a race he’s expected to win handily. Former Congressman and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, another potential 2028 contender, will campaign with Jolly next week.
“I had long thought that all these presidential candidates would decide to come help in Florida,” Jolly said, “If for nothing else, if they became the champion of David Jolly and David Jolly wins, David Jolly’s going to remember they helped. I don’t mean that in a transactional way. It’s just the enlightened self-interest of someone looking to run for president.”
“If Florida’s voters demonstrate we’re purple again and elect a Democratic governor, every presidential candidate, including Republicans, now have to be here for the next two years,” he added.
In a statement, Democratic Governors Association spokesman Kevin Donohue said the organization is “ready to capitalize on any opportunity to make a real difference in this race in the final stretch” but stopped short of committing real dollars.
Progressive Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has pledged $250,000 to Nixon and will hold a rally with her later this month. But top Senate Democrats remain focused on other contests they view as more winnable, one person familiar with the discussions said.
Steve Schale, the veteran Democratic strategist behind President Barack Obama’s successful Florida campaigns, called his party’s approach short-sighted. Failing to invest in Florida this November makes it harder for Democrats to compete there in the 2028 presidential race, he said, and potentially more costly still after the 2030 census is expected to reshape the party’s path to 270 electoral college votes.
“We have to win other states and they’re all in the South,” Schale said. “And we’ve had success in Florida more often than anywhere else in the Sun Belt.”
“That’s where showing signs of life this cycle is important,” he added.
Eight years ago, a Democratic retreat from Florida would have seemed implausible.
The party lost races for governor and Senate in 2018, but only by the narrowest of margins. The defeats, after spending tens of millions of dollars, were bruising. Still, Democrats vowed to regroup.
Instead, the losses compounded. Four years later, DeSantis won re-election by 19 points, a rout that crystallized Florida’s transformation from perennial battleground to Republican stronghold. By the 2024 presidential election, national Democrats had all but abandoned the state and Trump won it by 13.
Trump’s return to Washington, however, has given Florida Democrats reason to reconsider how far out of reach the state really is.
Miami elected a Democratic mayor in December for the first time in three decades. In August, Democrats picked up seats on the school board in Sarasota County, booting one of the co-founders of the conservative group Mom’s for Liberty. The party has also won a handful of special elections for GOP-leaning legislative seats, including the state House district that includes Mar-a-Lago.
The same forces shaping the midterms nationally are present in Florida: an unpopular Republican president and persistent anxiety over the cost of living. Hispanic voters, meanwhile, are showing signs of moving away from Trump, a potentially consequential shift in a state where they make up a substantial share of the electorate. And, Florida’s long-troubled property insurance market has added another source of economic frustration for voters and more headwinds for the Republicans overseeing the crisis.
Data centers have emerged as another flashpoint. Donalds, once an enthusiastic booster of their expansion, now defends local governments that turn them away after facing blowback on the issue during his primary.
Republicans aren’t panicking yet, one GOP fundraiser in Florida told CNN, but they are getting nervous. Donalds did little to ease those concerns in August, when he failed to eclipse 50 percent of the vote in the Republican primary despite carrying Trump’s unequivocal support. Nor did DeSantis help by withholding his endorsement of Donalds until after the primary, and the outgoing governor has done little in recent weeks to boost the Republican hoping to succeed him.
Trump has also lately devoted more attention to a race Republicans once expected to win comfortably. Last month, he gave Donalds a speaking slot at his midterm convention in Dallas, which the president said were reserved for candidates “in tight races.” The White House sent Vice President JD Vance to rally Republicans in Central Florida on Thursday and Trump has announced plans to campaign with Donalds as well.
Donalds said he welcomed Trump’s visit to Florida and rejected the suggestion that it reflected Republican concerns about the race.
“The president has always been active politically,” Donalds told CNN after speaking to Republicans in Okaloosa County, one of several Panhandle counties he didn’t carry in August. “He’s not at all one of these people who just kind of sits on the sidelines and just throws out ads and watch stuff happen. He likes to fully engage. We’re very grateful that the president is choosing to come to Florida.”
Donalds said he is polling behind Trump two years ago and DeSantis four years ago because he is not as well known. He has campaigned aggressively across the state in recent weeks to raise his profile and convince voters he’s attuned to their affordability concerns, even as Trump continues to dismiss them as a Democratic political attack on his economic record.
“It’s about unifying our party while staying focused on the kitchen table issues that impact all Floridians,” Donalds said.
Some Republicans remain uncertain whether Donalds can hold together the coalition that elected DeSantis and Trump. One of Donalds’ primary opponents, James Fishback, continues to criticize the Republican nominee, on social media and in public appearances.
“There’s a question of whether (Donalds) is able to unite Republicans,” the GOP fundraiser said, who asked not to be named to speak freely about his party’s nominee. “And if there’s a candidate who can pull away those voters, it’s Jolly.”
Jolly represented the Tampa Bay area in Congress as a Republican until he lost his seat in 2016. He later became a cable-news mainstay and regular Trump critic and spent years considering a return to politics through a third-party bid. In April 2025, he registered as a Democrat and announced a campaign for governor.
It’s a path Florida Democrats have traveled before.
Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor, switched parties and unsuccessfully sought his old job in 2014. Democrats nominated him again in 2022, only to see him lose overwhelmingly to DeSantis. Between those campaigns, Crist defeated Jolly in that 2016 House race.
Democrats hope Jolly’s background will appeal not only to moderates but also to Republicans disenchanted by Trump — a sizable share of which he would need to win in a state where GOP voters outnumber Democrats by 1.6 million. Meanwhile, Jolly’s campaign is leaning on Nixon, who is Black and has spent years organizing in Jacksonville, to bring out new Democrats or those who haven’t voted in recent elections in that key region of the state.
Donalds and his allies have seized on Jolly’s political evolution, describing him as opportunistic, disingenuous and a Crist retread. Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power has called Jolly “Temu Charlie,” meaning his candidacy is an off-brand version of Crist’s 2022 run.
Jolly has shrugged off the comparisons and insists voters are attracted to his pragmatism.
“People got to watch my journey over 10 years,” Jolly said. “I don’t think the problem in politics are people who change, it’s people who won’t change. And change is part of the strength of our campaign.”
Morgan said the Crist comparison only makes it harder to sway snakebitten donors that this time Florida really is different.
“They’ve heard it so many times that (Florida is in play), the question becomes, ‘Are they just crying wolf again,’” said Morgan, whose frustrations with Democrats have led him to tease the creation of a third party.
Late last month, Jolly launched a salvo at his own party for not investing in his race, suggesting they would share blame if he came up short.
But days later, as he emerged from a donor meeting at a Coral Gables steakhouse and stepped into a black SUV with his wife Laura, Jolly sounded more upbeat. A check for $1 million had arrived that morning.
“I do think people are now starting to come in,” he said. “And I’m optimistic we’ll continue to see more.”
He still has an uphill climb. As of mid-September, Jolly’s political committee had received 18 donations of six figures or more. Donalds’ committee reported more than 300.
Jolly said he has enough money to share his message on television through Election Day. But he doesn’t have the funds to separately target Black voters, reach disaffected Republicans or sustain attacks against Donalds.
“I worry about an environment where he skates through with no scrutiny,” Jolly said. “But we can only control what we can control.”
Yet, Jolly has passed on the clearest opportunity to scrutinize Donalds directly: debating him. He said he won’t participate in any debates because “it’s just going to further divide us as a state and in our politics to have two candidates up there yelling at each other and fighting.” The decision has puzzled some Democrats and stunned Donalds’ camp.
On Friday, though, Jolly finally answered one of Donald’s’ claims in the airwaves. His new ad rebutted the suggestion Jolly supports a “hurricane tax” and called Donalds a “liar.”
Philippeaux,at the North Lauderdale event,worried it’s not enough.
“I’ve been watching,” he said. “I think he’s got to step it up.”
CNN’s David Wright and Sarah Ferris contributed to this report.