2026-10-05T04:00:44.772Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/05/politics/trump-republicans-midterms-home-turf
共和党在选举日前四周正捍卫着他们此前从未料到会陷入风险的选区，总统唐纳德·特朗普正恳求选民不要背弃其政党，并承诺将推出更多现金补贴政策。
与此同时，一名白宫高级顾问周日在CNN节目中辩称，“有党派偏见的民调机构”所称选民正遭受经济困境的说法是错误的——这一表态似乎显示出美国民众与这位自诩正处于经济“黄金时代”的总统之间存在脱节。
上周末公布的民调结果显示共和党面临的风险日益加大，民主党在特朗普两年前轻松拿下的多个州都处于领先或势均力敌的状态，有迹象显示曾助力特朗普重返白宫的拉丁裔选民正逐渐倒向民主党。
伊朗问题仍是共和党在中期选举最后冲刺阶段的沉重负担，几乎没有迹象表明高企的汽油和柴油价格将很快回落至更便宜的水平——至少无法让选民在11月2日投票前感受到油价变化带来的影响。
不过，选举前四周的民调并不能直接预测选举结果，民主党内部也明显存在紧张情绪，他们对过去曾被这位如今正倾尽全力投入最后几周竞选的总统击败的惨痛经历记忆犹新。
这场愈演愈烈的政治斗争凸显了此次选举的关键利害关系：民主党若能拿下众议院和参议院多数席位，很可能会在特朗普政府任期的最后几年里，对其白宫团队及其家族财务状况展开深入调查。
民主党仅需拿下数个席位即可重新掌控众议院。目前民主党拥有214个席位，共和党为219席（包括1名与多数党党团结盟的独立议员）。民主党需要净增4个席位才能拿下参议院，而此次参议院对决还存在引人关注的最高法院大法官提名斗争的可能性——保守派大法官塞缪尔·阿利托告诉CBS新闻，他现在每个任期都会考虑退休问题。
特朗普的支持率一直在30%左右徘徊，他正试图扭转这一局面：周五他在深红州阿拉巴马州发表竞选演说；周六则在俄亥俄州参加集会，该州在2024年大选中特朗普以11个百分点的优势胜出，但今年该州一场关键的参议院竞选结果难分伯仲。他的行程安排是其政党在选举前一个月已处于守势的又一迹象。
他在南方腹地恳求共和党选民“就当是我本人在参选”，并大肆吹嘘他所称自己创造的前所未有的“黄金时代”。为了强化竞选信息，白宫显然宣布将向约2000万名参加B部分医疗保险的老年人发放90美元补贴。上个月，特朗普曾承诺如果共和党赢得中期选举，将向每位美国成年人发放5000美元。周六晚间在俄亥俄州，总统粗鄙地向其选民承诺将击败民主党，前提是他们能大规模投票支持共和党。“我们将大胜一场，我们会把他们狠狠踩在脚下，”他说道。
白宫正全力反驳经济陷入困境的说法。
“在选举周期来临之际，一些有党派偏见的民调机构声称民众情绪极度低落，这是民主党惯用的伎俩，”美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特周日在CNN的“国情咨文”节目中接受杰克·塔珀采访时表示。哈塞特将食品杂货价格上涨归咎于前总统乔·拜登，并辩称上周五公布的9月份仅新增2.9万个就业岗位的政府最新数据是个例外。
民主党人士称，这类表态反映出白宫不愿正视现实。“人们连维持生计都负担不起，”亚利桑那州参议员马克·凯利在CBS的“面对全国”节目中表示，他驳斥特朗普承诺的补贴是“试图用钱收买选票”。
共和党参议员、路易斯安那州的约翰·肯尼迪警告称，最大的选举议题是生活成本。“我们必须告诉美国民众真相，”肯尼迪说道。他在NBC的“与媒体见面”节目中补充道，“我们一直在告诉他们不要相信自己说谎的支票簿。”
“美国民众，无论哪个党派，都感到愤怒，”肯尼迪说，“即便没有愤怒，也深感深深的忧郁。”
多项民调印证了肯尼迪关于经济问题的判断。上周末最新的CBS新闻民调显示，70%的选民认为特朗普的政策推高了物价。56%的选民认为特朗普的政策应对当前经济状况负责，仅有20%的选民将责任归咎于拜登。上周美联社/NORC的民调显示，69%的成年人认为特朗普在生活成本问题上的处理比预期更糟糕。
民主党对于如何降低生活成本几乎没有提供具体细节。但在这场正演变为对不受欢迎总统的全民公投的中期选举中，这或许并不重要。
特朗普曾抱怨“没人宣传”“没有哪个经济体能比得上如今这个经济体”的事实。但他自己也并未坚持单一的竞选信息。周六，在关于夏令时的争议中，他似乎在社交媒体上分享了共和党阿肯色州参议员汤姆·科顿的手机号码；周日，他抨击福克斯新闻未充分报道他在俄亥俄州的集会，并在Truth Social上发布了多张他与中国国家主席习近平的合影以及宣称对格陵兰岛拥有主权的AI生成图片。
一度被认为对共和党有利的参议院地图，如今对这个目前同时掌控众议院和参议院、垄断华盛顿权力的政党来说，看起来颇具挑战。周五，一家顶级共和党超级政治行动委员会暂停了在北卡罗来纳州一个共和党现任议员席位的竞选开支，该州候选人迈克尔·沃特利在民调中落后。
周六发布的最新《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院民调显示，民主党在阿拉斯加和特拉华州共和党现任议员占据的参议院席位竞选中处于领先地位。民调还显示俄亥俄州、堪萨斯州和艾奥瓦州的竞选没有明确的领先者——这一结果也令民主党欢欣鼓舞，因为这些席位目前由共和党掌控，且特朗普在2024年大选中在这些州以压倒性优势获胜。在每个州，特朗普在经济问题上的支持率都徘徊在40%或更低。约一半受访选民希望有候选人能制衡特朗普。
其他竞争激烈的竞选席位包括密歇根州：进步派民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德正努力为民主党保住即将退休的参议员加里·彼得斯的席位；缅因州：民主党终于有望击败长期任职的共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯。
对共和党来说的另一个危险信号是，周日公布的一项NBC/泰莱穆多民调显示，拉丁裔选民以24个百分点的优势表示更希望民主党赢得国会控制权。仅有27%的拉丁裔选民总体上认可特朗普的工作表现，其中20%的人认可他在生活成本问题上的处理方式。
2024年大选中，特朗普在拉丁裔群体的几乎所有细分群体中都实现了历史性突破，一些共和党战略家曾希望借此实现选民群体的永久重组。但如今，白宫高强度的驱逐行动引发了反弹。在包括得克萨斯州在内的势均力敌的州，民主党参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔莱里科正期待着民主党30多年来首次在全州范围内获胜，拉丁裔选民的倒戈可能会产生重大影响。
选举前几周选民的情绪可能发生变化，特朗普也坚称民调机构总是低估“让美国再次伟大”运动的支持率。关键竞选席位的支持率收窄并不令人意外，尤其是如果共和党选民基础最终能为总统最后一次集结投票的话。
特朗普在阿拉巴马州的集会上恳求美国人承认他已经取得了“难以置信的进展”，并承诺将迎来“新高度的伟大”。
但全国范围内民众对生活成本的焦虑证据确凿。而且自从特朗普在2024年大选中承诺解决这一问题以来，此次选举可能归结为一个简单的问题：选民是否相信他所称的“黄金时代”？
Trump fights on home turf as Democratic midterm hopes rise
2026-10-05T04:00:44.772Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/05/politics/trump-republicans-midterms-home-turf
Republicans are defending territory they never expected to be at risk four weeks before Election Day, as President Donald Trump implores voters not to desert his party with the promise of more cash giveaways.
A top White House adviser, meanwhile, argued Sunday on CNN that “partisan pollsters” are wrong that voters are hurting financially — a message that suggests a disconnect between the country and a president who boasts of an economic “golden age.”
And polling released over the weekend pointed to growing peril for the GOP, with Democrats leading or in tight races in states Trump won easily two years ago, amid signs that Latino voters, who helped power him back to the White House, are drifting away.
The Iran war remains an anvil for Republicans heading into the final stretch of the midterms, with few signs that high gasoline and diesel prices will return to cheaper levels soon — at least in time for voters to feel the difference by November 2.
Still, polls four weeks away do not forecast directly how the election will turn out, and there is palpable nervousness among Democrats with painful memories of their past defeats by a president who is now throwing everything at the final weeks.
The intensifying political combat underscores the critical stakes of the election, as Democrats aim for House and Senate majorities they’d likely use to probe deep into Trump’s White House and his family’s finances during the final years of his term.
Democrats need only a few pickups to win back control of the House, where they currently have 214 seats, compared with 219 Republicans (including one independent who caucuses with the majority). They need a net gain of four seats to win the Senate in a duel that carries the tantalizing possibility of a Supreme Court nominating fight after conservative Justice Samuel Alito told CBS News that he now considers retirement every term.
Trump, seeking to defy approval ratings in the 30s, campaigned in deep-red Alabama on Friday; on Saturday he spoke at a rally in Ohio, which he won by 11 points in 2024 but where a critical Senate race this year is too close to call. His travel schedule is another sign his party is on the defensive a month out.
He pleaded with Republican voters in the Deep South to “pretend I’m on the ballot” and waxed about the unprecedented “golden age” he says he’s conjured. In an apparent attempt to sweeten his message, the White House announced a $90 payment to around 20 million seniors who are on Medicare Part B. Last month, Trump promised every American adult $5,000 if Republicans win the midterms. In Ohio on Saturday night, the president crudely promised his voters victory against the Democrats, if only they’d turn out in huge numbers to vote. “We’re going to win big, and we’re going to shove it up their ass,” he said.
The White House is pushing back hard on a narrative of economic pain.
“Ahead of an election cycle, the fact that there’s possibly partisan pollsters telling us that the people are really, really depressed, it’s a classic Democrat move,” Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union” Sunday. Hassett blamed high prices for groceries and food on former President Joe Biden and argued that fresh government data Friday showing only 29,000 jobs were created in September was an outlier.
Democrats claim that such characterizations reflect denial in the White House. “People can’t afford their lives,” Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly said on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” dismissing Trump’s promised payouts as “trying to buy votes.”
GOP Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana warned that the biggest election issue was the cost of living. “We have to tell the American people the truth,” Kennedy said. He added on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that “we (keep) telling them not to believe their own lying checkbooks.”
“The American people, both sides, feel anger,” Kennedy said. “If they don’t feel anger, they feel deep melancholy.”
Multiple polls back up Kennedy’s assertions on the economy. In the latest, for CBS News this weekend, 70% of voters said Trump’s policies were pushing prices up. And 56% said Trump’s policies were responsible for today’s economy, while only 20% blamed Biden. In an AP/NORC poll last week, 69% of adults said that Trump’s handling of the cost of living had been worse than expected.
Democrats have offered scant details about what they’d do to cut the cost of living. But in a midterm election that is shaping up as a referendum on an unpopular president, that may not matter.
Trump has complained that “nobody’s selling” the fact that “there’s no economy like this economy.” But he’s hardly sticking to one single message himself. He appeared to share Republican Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton’s cell phone number on social media Saturday amid a dispute over daylight saving time; on Sunday, he lashed out at Fox News for not sufficiently covering his Ohio rally and filled Truth Social with photos of himself with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and AI illustrations staking claims to Greenland.
A Senate map once thought to favor Republicans now looks challenging for the party that currently holds both the House and the Senate as part of a monopoly on Washington power. On Friday, a top GOP super PAC paused spending on a Republican-held seat in North Carolina, where Michael Whatley trails in the polls.
Fresh New York Times/Siena polls published Saturday showed Democrats leading in the races for Republican-held Senate seats in Alaska and Texas. The surveys also found no clear leader in races in Ohio, Kansas and Iowa — results that will also cheer Democrats because the seats are currently held by Republicans and Trump romped to victory in each state in 2024. Trump’s approval rating on the economy languishes at or below 40% in each of the states. And roughly half of voters surveyed want a candidate who will provide a check on Trump.
Other tight races are raging in Michigan, where progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is trying to keep retiring Sen. Gary Peters’ seat for Democrats; and in Maine, where Democrats finally hope to pick off longtime GOP Sen. Susan Collins.
In another danger sign for the GOP, a new NBC/Telemundo poll released Sunday found Latino voters saying by a 24-point margin that they’d prefer to see the Democrats win Congress. Just 27% of Latino voters approve of Trump’s job performance overall, with 20% approving of his handling of the cost of living.
In 2024, Trump forged historic breakthroughs in virtually every segment of the Latino community, leading to hopes among some GOP strategists of a permanent realignment. But there’s been a backlash to the White House’s intensive deportation campaign. In knife-edge states including Texas, where Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico is conjuring hopes of a first statewide victory for his party in more than 30 years, Latino defections could prove hugely significant.
Voter sentiment can change in the final weeks before an election, and Trump insists pollsters always underplay MAGA support. It would not be a surprise if key races tighten, especially if the base rallies for the president one last time.
Trump beseeched Americans during his rally in Alabama to recognize he’d made “unbelievable progress” and promised “new levels of greatness.”
But the evidence of nationwide angst over the cost of living is compelling. And since Trump promised to fix the issue in 2024, the election may come down to this simple question: Do voters believe his invocations of a “golden age”?