2026-10-05T09:00:44.793Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/05/politics/10-senate-seats-most-likely-to-flip-2026
距离选举日还有近四周，随着民主党在多个倾向共和党的州出现起色的迹象，参议院战场版图正在扩大。
今年首次，CNN原本列出的9个最有可能易主的参议院席位增至10个，新增了94年来从未选出过民主党参议员的堪萨斯州。新一轮民调也显示，民主党在俄亥俄、阿拉斯加和得克萨斯等共和党倾向州处于领先或势均力敌的状态。这四个州在2024年大选均以两位数优势支持唐纳德·特朗普总统。
要拿下参议院多数席位，民主党需要拿下4个共和党掌控的席位，同时保住自己的3个席位，其中包括密歇根州。
根据CNN的民调综合结果，特朗普的支持率为34%，民众对经济以及他发动的对伊朗战争的不满情绪高涨。自特朗普重新执政以来，民主党在特别选举中的热情高涨，提前投票的 turnout 也出现早期上升迹象。
但他们也对共和党投入的巨额资金感到不安。广告追踪公司AdImpact的数据显示，从10月初到选举日，共和党将在十大竞争最激烈的参议院竞选中的八个州的广告支出上超过民主党，尽管共和党结盟的外部团体需要比民主党竞选团队花费更多来购买广告时段，这一优势会被削弱。
我们对11月最有可能易主的席位的排名基于CNN的报道，包括与参与参议院竞选的战略家的对话，以及我们对候选人筹款、民调以及各州党派环境的分析。该排名反映了当前竞选的态势，随着中期选举进入最后一个月，排名可能会发生变化。
北卡罗来纳州仍是今年最有可能易主的州。民主党前州长罗伊·库珀将民生问题作为竞选的核心议题，他在共和党提名候选人迈克尔·沃特利面前占据优势。沃特利是前共和党全国委员会主席、特朗普的盟友，正寻求接替参议员汤姆·蒂利斯。
上月发布的埃隆大学/舆观民调显示，库珀在可能投票的选民中以11个百分点的优势领先沃特利。关键的共和党外部支出团体参议院领导基金正在暂停该州的广告宣传活动。据AdImpact的数据，上周末，共和党外部团体削减了超过1500万美元的剩余广告预订。
尽管如此，特朗普上月仍与沃特利在北卡罗来纳州进行竞选活动，以期动员其支持者——该州是他三次赢得选举的州。
俄亥俄州在本次排名中上升两位，这反映了前参议员谢罗德·布朗的有利态势。
布朗在两年前以不到4个百分点的差距连任第四届参议员失败，他在大多数民调中都领先共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德。9月底进行的《纽约时报》/锡拉丘兹大学民调显示，竞争激烈，布朗支持率为49%，赫斯特德为46%，处于调查的误差范围内。上月的马里斯民调显示，在俄亥俄州登记选民中，布朗以8个百分点的优势领先赫斯特德。
在《纽约时报》/锡拉丘兹大学的民调中，赫斯特德的支持率为37%，而布朗为46%。这或许反映出布朗与许多俄亥俄州选民的交集比赫斯特德更长——赫斯特德是前副州长，去年被任命填补副总统JD·万斯空出的参议院席位。
布朗对赫斯特德在数据中心问题上的攻击被证明特别有效，华盛顿的共和党竞选机构警告称，该问题是赫斯特德竞选的“绊脚石”。
参议院民主党人上周否决了赫斯特德提出的一项法案，该法案本应建议各州应对数据中心相关的能源成本问题。上周六，特朗普在为赫斯特德竞选时为俄亥俄州西南部的数据中心辩护，反映出总统长期以来反对暂停数据中心建设的立场。
在上周发布的一则热门数字广告中，布朗的竞选团队还展示了选民对赫斯特德此前称生活贫困的人“不太擅长应对现实世界”的言论感到愤怒的场景，其中使用了粗口。（布朗的竞选团队在电视上播放的是无粗口版本的广告。）
共和党人沿用2024年的策略，投放广告攻击布朗在跨性别政治问题上的立场，希望能改变该州的选情。布朗则回应推出了自己的电视广告，展示选民谈论俄亥俄州已经有相关法律处理跨性别政策，并希望候选人将注意力放在其他问题上。
进入最后阶段的一大疑问是，共和党的支出能否帮助缩小这场竞选的差距。从10月初到选举日，共和党团体计划在该州投入超过8000万美元，而民主党拨款超过5000万美元。
阿拉斯加州在本次排名中上升两位。这个幅员辽阔、人口稀少的州以民调难度大而闻名，但周六发布的《纽约时报》/锡拉丘兹大学对可能投票选民的民调显示，民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉以50%比43%的7个百分点优势领先共和党参议员丹·沙利文。
11月的选举将采用排名选择投票制，另外两名候选人将与沙利文和佩尔托拉一同出现在选票上，其中包括另一位名为丹·沙利文的共和党候选人，他是前教师。选民可能混淆同名候选人的可能性一直是共和党在11月大选前担忧的问题。
民主党人将佩尔托拉——前国会众议员——视为他们最强有力的候选人之一，在对手试图将她与“美国本土48州的自由派”绑定之际，她与前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯等全国性民主党人士保持了一定距离。
就在选举前几周，沙利文与特朗普在椭圆形办公室共同宣布了韩国为阿拉斯加液化天然气管道项目投资540亿美元的计划。佩尔托拉也迅速对总统的宣布表示赞扬，称她期待与特朗普“继续开展两党合作”。
上月，《纽约时报》的一篇报道披露了一些前助手指控佩尔托拉存在敌对行为的细节，她对助手的态度和使用粗俗言辞的行为受到了审查。她的竞选团队否认存在虐待模式，但承认佩尔托拉在2023年母亲和丈夫去世后，有时难以应对悲痛。阿拉斯加州的另一位共和党参议员丽莎·穆尔科斯基也为她辩护，指出佩尔托拉的个人困境。
4. 缅因州
缅因州在本次排名中下降两位。但共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯与民主党人特洛伊·杰克逊之间的竞选仍然竞争激烈，两人将于本周进行今年的首次辩论。
上月发布的新罕布什尔大学民调显示，在缅因州可能投票的选民中，杰克逊以51%比47%的微弱优势领先柯林斯——这是首次有公开民调显示民主党人在该州占据优势。其他近期民调，包括CNN委托SSRS进行的民调和《纽约时报》/锡拉丘兹大学的民调，均未显示出明显的领先者。
考虑到哈里斯在2024年大选中以7个百分点的优势赢得该州，柯林斯仍然处于脆弱位置。民调显示，这场竞选更多取决于选民对这位缅因州参议员和特朗普的负面看法，而非对民主党对手的看法。
民主党人猛烈抨击柯林斯在关键投票中支持特朗普，尽管她在关税和伊朗战争等问题上有自己的立场。他们还利用ProPublica的一篇报道，指控柯林斯的办公室在其2020年竞选期间参与了权钱交易。柯林斯强烈否认这些指控，称其为“政治抹黑”。
柯林斯过去曾在艰难的连任竞选中胜出，共和党人也在大力提醒选民她为该州取得的成就。共和党团体还花费数百万美元投放针对杰克逊的腐败广告，以及抨击这位民主党前缅因州参议院议长的税收政策电视广告。
从周二开始，柯林斯和杰克逊将在十天内进行四场辩论。
得克萨斯州在本次排名中上升两位，民主党人詹姆斯·塔利科的处境好于预期，而共和党人正投入数亿美元拯救得克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿。
民主党人认为，塔利科更广泛的吸引力，加上民众对帕克斯顿丑闻的不满以及拉丁裔选民向左倾斜的趋势，为该党提供了三十年来最现实的机会，将得克萨斯州从共和党阵营转为民主党阵营。
9月最后九天进行的《纽约时报》/锡拉丘兹大学民调显示，在可能投票的选民中，塔利科以51%比45%的6个百分点优势领先帕克斯顿。与此同时，上周发布的福克斯新闻民调未显示明显领先者，塔利科支持率为51%，帕克斯顿为49%。
帕克斯顿需要包括5月支持科宁的共和党人在内的忠诚共和党选民在11月出来投票。特朗普正在尽一己之力帮助巩固基础，称帕克斯顿是保守派斗士，同时嘲讽他的个人外貌。周四在丹顿举行活动后，特朗普将于周三返回圣安东尼奥参加集会——这是他一周内第二次到访该州。
在最后一个月，共和党目前在剩余广告预订上拥有近8比1的支出优势——约7000万美元对900万美元。但与北卡罗来纳州一样，共和党在这里依赖外部团体，且在竞选周期后期才完成大部分广告预订，此时广告库存紧张，推高了他们的广告成本。
密歇根州在本次排名中下降三位。民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德与共和党人迈克·罗杰斯之间的竞选仍是共和党本届竞选为数不多的进攻机会之一。罗杰斯曾在2024年以0.3个百分点的差距输给参议员埃利萨·斯洛特金。
上周发布的马里斯民调显示，在登记选民中，埃尔赛义德以51%比44%的7个百分点优势领先罗杰斯。但9月所有针对可能投票选民的民调描绘了不同的画面，竞选没有明确的领先者，包括周三福克斯新闻发布的最新民调。
共和党在这场竞选中的支出优势是一个关键因素，可能让这场竞选在选举日前始终保持胶着。在10月份，共和党计划投入超过4300万美元，而民主党预订了约2500万美元。共和党在这里发起了坚定的宣传攻势，将埃尔赛义德描绘为非主流人士，投放大量广告称这位民主党人“危险”且“激进”。“他对密歇根州来说太极端了，你的投票可以阻止他，”支持罗杰斯的一个团体的广告说道。
但由于伊朗战争推高了汽油价格和关税，密歇根州受到重创，选民对特朗普的不满以及对经济的担忧，让罗杰斯的竞选环境变得艰难。
根据福克斯新闻的民调，60%的可能投票选民表示不认可总统的表现，70%的可能投票选民将生活成本问题列为极其重要的议题。39%的选民极为担忧罗杰斯与特朗普的关联过于紧密，而36%的选民认为埃尔赛义德的立场过于自由——同一份民调显示这一比例持平。
这位共和党提名候选人试图在伊朗问题上与总统保持一定距离，呼吁迅速结束战争以降低油价——尽管就在几个月前，他还称赞特朗普发动这场冲突的决定。罗杰斯的战略取决于赢得不满的民主党人和独立人士的支持，同时动员特朗普的基础支持者——这些选民在特朗普不在选票上的选举中投票率并不稳定。
与此同时，埃尔赛义德最近与哈里斯一同露面，争取黑人选民的支持，其中包括那些认为针对拜登政府对以色列和加沙的政策的抗议运动损害了哈里斯2024年总统竞选的选民。
尽管他仍然受到一些犹太民主党人的质疑，但他也获得了密歇根州总检察长达纳·内塞尔的背书，内塞尔是该州最知名的犹太官员之一。
埃尔赛义德和罗杰斯将于周四进行首次辩论。
艾奥瓦州的竞争竞选在本次排名中上升一位。
上周发布的两份针对可能投票选民的民调显示，民主党候选人乔希·图雷克与共和党众议员阿什利·辛森势均力敌。《纽约时报》/锡拉丘兹大学的民调显示，辛森的支持率为48%，图雷克为47%，而福克斯新闻的民调显示图雷克为49%，辛森为47%。
这个以农业为主的州受到特朗普政策的影响，比如关税和伊朗战争，导致农业机械、化肥和柴油价格出现波动。福克斯新闻的民调显示，特朗普在艾奥瓦州的支持率为42%，更多可能投票选民担忧辛森与特朗普的关联过于紧密（52%），而非图雷克的立场过于自由（43%）。
图雷克一直在将辛森与特朗普直接联系起来，最近投放了一则广告，将她的投票与该州的高油价挂钩。艾奥瓦州还存在三场竞争激烈的众议院竞选和一场州长竞选，民主党人认为州审计员罗布·桑德有真正的机会将州长职位拿下，进而帮助图雷克和其他候选人。
与密歇根州的罗杰斯一样，辛森也在伊朗问题上与特朗普保持了一定距离，呼吁立即结束战争以降低油价，并批评特朗普在牛肉进口方面的举措。
她还与总统一同出现在椭圆形办公室，当时特朗普宣布计划建设一座价值150亿美元的钢铁厂，可创造1750个永久岗位和数千个临时岗位——尽管这一承诺受到了两党艾奥瓦州民众的一些质疑。
共和党人正在向该州投入更多资金，帮助辛森顺利当选。支持共和党的参议院领导基金将10月份的广告支出增加了2000万美元，共和党人已经有望在竞选的最后几周在该州的支出上超过民主党。
新罕布什尔州在本次排名中下降两位，但民主党众议员克里斯·帕帕斯与共和党前参议员约翰·苏努努之间的竞争激烈，让民主党保持警惕。
9月发布的新罕布什尔大学民调显示，在可能投票的选民中，帕帕斯以8个百分点的优势领先苏努努，而同期《纽约时报》/锡拉丘兹大学的民调则显示竞选没有明确的领先者。
民主党人最终认为，在哈里斯2024年以微弱优势赢得的该州，他们的选民和独立人士会支持帕帕斯，但帕帕斯也警告称，他的政党需要更加重视该州。
苏努努对新罕布什尔州的选民来说是个熟悉的名字，他的哥哥和父亲都曾担任该州州长。民主党人花了大量时间提醒选民选票上的是哪位苏努努，并攻击他的游说背景。
共和党战略家还认为，共和党州长凯利·阿约特在连任竞选中民调领先，可能会在11月为苏努努带来助力。但新罕布什尔州选民以分裂选票著称，共和党人的竞选环境仍然艰难。
堪萨斯州首次出现在这份名单上，成为共和党在中期选举最后阶段的新难题。
从共和党转投民主党的大型教堂牧师亚当·汉密尔顿让该州的竞选局势变得紧张。
《纽约时报》/锡拉丘兹大学对堪萨斯州可能投票选民的民调显示，汉密尔顿与寻求连任第二届的共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔的支持率持平。马歇尔在2020年首次参选参议院时以两位数优势胜出，特朗普在2024年大选中以16个百分点的优势赢得堪萨斯州。如今，支持共和党的参议院领导基金将投入数百万美元的广告费用保卫马歇尔。
作为一名妇产科医生，马歇尔因被报道涉及医疗债务诉讼而面临反弹。汉密尔顿的竞选团队利用这一事件大做文章，引发了马歇尔的不满。他在上月的辩论中称这些报道是“抹黑”，并表示自己只是参与了“常见的商业行为”。
马歇尔还面临着全国共和党人都面临的与特朗普相关的不利因素，关税和燃料成本打击了堪萨斯州和艾奥瓦州的农民。他也采取了一些措施与总统保持距离——上月发布声明谴责美国移民及海关执法局“对当地社区和企业造成大规模 disruption”。
与此同时，汉密尔顿则利用自己的党派转变来吸引广泛选民，将自己与华盛顿的“ dysfunction”区分开来。他在上月的一则核心广告中说道：“我们必须通过妥协来修复我们 broken 的政治体系。是时候做出改变了。”
就在上周，该州第二位前共和党州长迈克·海登表态支持汉密尔顿而非马歇尔。“我之前支持过罗杰·马歇尔，但他在参议院的时间里，一直将党派和政治置于堪萨斯州人民之上，”海登在一篇专栏文章中写道。“是时候做出改变了。”
佐治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫在与共和党挑战者、众议员迈克·柯林斯的连任竞选中占据有利位置。
根据联邦选举委员会的主要竞选委员会记录，截至6月底，奥索夫的筹款额为7700万美元，远超柯林斯的650万美元。
这也是唯一一场民主党在最后一个月的广告支出上占据显著优势的参议院竞选（2300万美元对1600万美元），共和党人似乎不愿为这场竞选投入大量资源——这与俄亥俄州的竞选形成鲜明对比。
双方的战略家都在密切关注该州的州长竞选，共和党人希望他们的候选人里克·杰克逊能为柯林斯带来助力。但奥索夫也在努力帮助佐治亚州的所有民主党候选人，包括州长提名候选人凯莎·兰斯·巴恩斯。
许多这些州的竞选看起来希望渺茫，但直到11月前我们都会持续关注。
内布拉斯加州是另一个受到特朗普对伊朗战争经济压力影响的中西部州。独立候选人丹·奥斯本的竞选仍然举步维艰——他在2024年参议院竞选中失利，此次正挑战共和党参议员皮特·里基茨。
南卡罗来纳州参议员达琳·格雷厄姆在被任命接替已故哥哥林赛·格雷厄姆的席位后，正与儿科医生、民主党人安妮·安德鲁斯角逐完整任期。需要关注的一点是，共和党在最后阶段会投入多少资金到该州。近三十年来，民主党人从未赢得过南卡罗来纳州的参议院席位。
密西西比州民主党参议院提名候选人斯科特·科洛姆在与共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯的竞选中引发了广泛关注。但在特朗普以近23个百分点优势赢得的该州，科洛姆获胜对民主党来说仍然希望渺茫。
明尼苏达州民主党副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根正与前体育广播员、保守派活动家米歇尔·塔福亚展开角逐。共和党人对塔福亚的参选感到兴奋，但明尼苏达州在2024年大选中以4个百分点的优势支持哈里斯，且受到与其他中西部州相同的不利因素影响。
The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026
2026-10-05T09:00:44.793Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/05/politics/10-senate-seats-most-likely-to-flip-2026
Nearly four weeks out from Election Day, the Senate battleground map is growing after signs of improvement for Democrats in several red-leaning states.
For the first time this year, CNN’s list of 9 Senate seats most likely to flip expands to 10 to include Kansas, which hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years. A new wave of polling also shows Democrats ahead or competitive in red states like Ohio, Alaska and Texas. All four states went for President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024.
To win the Senate majority, Democrats will need to pick up four Republican-held seats while defending three of their own, including Michigan.
Trump’s approval rating stands at 34%, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls, amid high frustration over the economy and the war he launched against Iran. Democrats have also seen surging enthusiasm in special elections since Trump returned to office and early signs of elevated turnout in early voting.
But they have also expressed unease over the massive amount of spending coming from the GOP. From the start of October through Election Day, Republicans are poised to outspend Democrats on advertising in eight of the ten most competitive Senate races, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact, even though that advantage will be blunted by GOP-aligned outside groups having to spend more for ratings points than Democratic campaigns will.
Our ranking of the seats most likely to flip in November is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, as well as our analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The rankings are a snapshot of where the contests stand at this point and can shift as the midterm election season enters its final month.
North Carolina remains the state most likely to flip this year. Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has made affordability issues a centerpiece of his campaign, has a strong position over GOP nominee Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman and Trump ally vying to replace Sen. Thom Tillis.
An Elon University/YouGov poll released last month showed Cooper up 11 points over Whatley among likely voters. The Senate Leadership Fund, a key Republican outside spending group, is pausing its ad campaign there. Over the weekend, Republican outside groups cut more than $15 million from their remaining ad bookings, according to AdImpact data.
Still, Trump campaigned with Whatley in North Carolina last month in an effort to turn out his base in a state he won three times.
Ohio moves up two spots on this list, a reflection of the prime position of former Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Brown, who lost reelection to a fourth term by less than four points two years ago, has led GOP Sen. Jon Husted in most polls. A New York Times/Siena University poll of likely voters conducted at the end of September showed a tight race, Brown at 49% and Husted at 46%, within the survey’s margin of error. A Marist poll of registered voters in Ohio showed Brown up eight points over Husted last month.
In the NYT/Siena University poll, Husted’s favorability is at 37% while Brown is at 46%. That’s perhaps a reflection of Brown having a longer history with many Ohio voters than Husted, the former lieutenant governor appointed to take Vice President JD Vance’s seat last year.
Brown’s attacks on Husted over data centers – calling him “the face of data centers in Ohio” – have proven particularly potent as Republicans’ campaign arm in Washington has warned the issue is an “anchor” on Husted’s campaign.
Senate Democrats last week blocked a Husted-sponsored bill that would have recommended states take action on data center-related energy costs. And campaigning for Husted on Saturday, Trump defended data centers in southwestern Ohio, a reflection of the president’s longstanding opposition to pausing their construction.
In one buzzy digital spot released last week, Brown’s campaign also featured voters using expletives as they reacted to Husted’s past comments suggesting people living in poverty are “not very experienced at navigating the real world.” (Brown’s campaign is running an expletive-free version of the ad on TV.)
Republicans have pulled from a 2024 playbook to run ads attacking Brown on transgender politics, hoping that will move the needle in the state. Brown has responded with a TV spot of his own featuring voters talking about how Ohio already has laws addressing transgender policies and wanting candidates to focus on other issues.
One big question heading into the final stretch is whether GOP spending could help tighten this race. Republican groups are set to spend more than $80 million there from the start of October through Election Day while Democrats have allotted more than $50 million.
Alaska moves up two spots. The enormous and sparsely populated state is notoriously hard to poll, but a NYT/Siena poll of likely voters released Saturday found Democrat Mary Peltola up seven points over GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, 50 to 43%.
November’s contest will be determined by ranked-choice voting, and two others join Sen. Sullivan and Peltola on the ballot, including another GOP candidate named Dan Sullivan, a former schoolteacher. The possibility of voters confusing the same-name candidates has been a point of concern for Republicans ahead of November.
Democrats consider Peltola, a former congresswoman, as one of their strongest recruits, and she’s kept some national Democratic politicians like former Vice President Kamala Harris at arm’s length at a time when her opponent attempts to tie to her to “lower-48 liberals.”
Sullivan stood beside Trump in the Oval Office to tout a $54 billion investment from South Korea for the Alaska LNG pipeline project just weeks before the election. Peltola also moved quickly to praise the president’s announcement, saying she looks forward to “continuing this bipartisan work” with Trump.
Peltola’s demeanor towards aides and use of vulgar rhetoric came under scrutiny last month with a New York Times report detailing allegations of hostile behavior from some former aides. Her campaign denied any pattern of abusive pattern but acknowledged that Peltola has struggled at times to deal with the deaths of her mother and husband in 2023. Alaska’s other Republican senator, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, also came to her defense, noting Peltola’s personal struggles.
4. Maine
Maine drops two spots on our list. But the race between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson remains extremely competitive as the two prepare to debate for the first time this week.
A University of New Hampshire poll conducted last month found Jackson slightly ahead of Collins among Maine likely voters – 51% to 47% – marking the first public survey showing the Democrat with the advantage in the state. Other recent polls, including a CNN survey conducted by SSRS and a NYT/Siena poll, have shown no clear leader.
Collins remains in a vulnerable position given Harris won her state by 7 points in 2024. Polling has indicated the contest hinges more on negative views of the Maine senator and Trump than it does on perceptions about her Democratic opponent.
Democrats have hammered Collins for siding with Trump on consequential votes even as she’s struck out on her own on issues like tariffs and the Iran war. They have also seized on a ProPublica report alleging Collins’ office was involved in a pay-to-play scheme during her 2020 campaign. Collins has forcefully denied the allegations as a “political hit job.”
Collins has survived tough reelection battles in the past, and Republicans are leaning hard on reminding constituents of what she’s accomplished for the state. GOP groups also have spent millions on corruption ads of their own against Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, along with TV spots hammering the Democrat on tax policy.
Starting Tuesday, Collins and Jackson will have four debates over ten days.
Texas jumps two spots with Democrat James Talarico in a stronger-than-expected position and Republicans in the middle of a nine-figure rescue mission to save Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Democrats believe Talarico’s broader appeal, coupled with unease with Paxton’s scandals and the leftward shift of Latino voters, are giving the party its most realistic chance of turning Texas blue in three decades.
A NYT/Siena poll conducted over the final nine days of September found Talarico up six points over Paxton among likely voters – 51% to 45%. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll released last week showed no clear leader in the contest, with Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49%.
Paxton needs loyal Republicans, including those who sided with Cornyn in May, to turn out in November. Trump is doing his part to help with the base, arguing Paxton is a conservative fighter while mocking his personal appearance. After holding an event in Denton on Thursday, Trump will return to San Antonio for a rally on Wednesday – his second trip to the state in a week.
Over the final month, Republicans currently have a nearly 8-to-1 spending advantage in remaining ad reservations – about $70 million to $9 million. But like North Carolina, Republicans are relying on outside groups here and have made much of their bookings late in the cycle when ad inventories are stretched, imposing a premium on their spending.
Michigan shifts down three spots. The race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman who lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024 by 0.3%, remains one of the GOP’s few offensive opportunities this cycle.
A Marist poll of registered voters released last week showed El-Sayed up seven points over Rogers – 51% to 44%. But all polls of likely voters in September painted a different picture. with no clear leader in the contest, including the most recent survey released by Fox News on Wednesday.
The GOP spending advantage in this race is a major factor that could keep this race close up until Election Day. For the month of October, Republicans are set to spend more than $43 million while Democrats have reserved about $25 million. Republicans here have mounted a determined effort to paint El-Sayed as outside the mainstream, running in waves of ads calling the Democrat “dangerous” and “radical.” “He’s too extreme for Michigan, and your vote can stop him,” says an ad from a pro-Rogers group.
But frustration with Trump and concerns about the economy make the environment tough for Rogers in a state hit hard by tariffs and gas prices driven up by the Iran war.
According to the Fox News poll, 6 in 10 likely voters say they disapprove of the president’s performance, and 7 in 10 likely voters cite cost-of-living issues as extremely important. 39% are extremely concerned Rogers is too closely aligned to Trump while 36% said El-Sayed’s positions are too liberal, the same poll showed.
The GOP nominee has sought to create some distance from the president on Iran, calling for the war’s swift end amid rising prices – even though he praised Trump’s decision to start the conflict mere months ago. Rogers’ strategy hinges on winning over disaffected Democrats and independents, while also turning out the president’s base supporters, who aren’t as reliable of voters in elections where Trump is not on the ballot.
El-Sayed, meanwhile, recently appeared with Harris to drum up support from Black voters, including those who feel a protest movement against the Biden administration’s policy towards Israel and Gaza hurt her presidential run in 2024.
Though he still faces some skepticism from Jewish Democrats, he also won the endorsement of Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, one of the most prominent Jewish officials in the state.
El-Sayed and Rogers will have their first debate on Thursday.
The competitive contest in Iowa moves up one spot.
Two polls of likely voters released in the last week show Democratic nominee Josh Turek and GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson running neck-and-neck. A NYT/Siena poll of likely voters showed Hinson’s support at 48% and Turek at 47% while a Fox News poll found Turek at 49% and Hinson at 47%.
The agriculture-heavy state has felt the impacts of Trump policies like tariffs and the war in Iran, which have created price shocks for farm equipment, fertilizer and diesel. Trump’s approval rating in Iowa is at 42%, according to the Fox News poll, and more likely voters expressed concern about Hinson aligning too closely to Trump (52%) than that Turek’s position is too liberal (43%).
Turek has worked to link Hinson directly to Trump and recently ran an ad tying her votes to high gas prices in the state. Iowa is also home to three competitive House races and a gubernatorial contest where Democrats believe state auditor Rob Sand has a real chance of flipping the office blue and in turn helping Turek and others on the ballot.
Like Rogers in Michigan, Hinson has put some distance between herself and the Iran war, calling for its immediate end to drive down prices, and she’s criticized Trump’s moves on beef imports.
She also appeared alongside the president in the Oval Office as he announced plans for a $15 billion steel plant that could create 1,750 permanent jobs and thousands more temporary ones – though that promise has drawn some skepticism from Iowans from both parties.
Republicans are deploying additional money to the state to try to get Hinson across the finish line. The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund upped their advertising spend by $20 million for the month of October, and Republicans are already on track to outspend Democrats in the state for the final weeks of the campaign.
New Hampshire has dropped two spots, but the competitive contest between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and GOP former Sen. John Sununu is keeping Democrats on their toes.
A University of New Hampshire poll conducted in September showed Pappas up 8 points over Sununu with likely voters while a New York Times/Siena poll over roughly the same period revealed no clear leader in the contest.
Democrats ultimately believe their voters and independents will side with Pappas in a state Harris narrowly won in 2024, but Pappas has also warned that his party needs to prioritize the state more.
Sununu is a very familiar name for voters in New Hampshire, where his brother and father both served as governor. Democrats are spending significant time trying to remind voters which Sununu is on the ballot and attacking his lobbying background.
Republican strategists also feel Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who is polling ahead in her reelection bid, could create a lift for Sununu in November. But New Hampshire voters are well-known for splitting their tickets, and the environment for Republicans is still tough.
Kansas appears on this list for the first time as it emerges as a new headache for the GOP in the midterms’ final stretch.
Adam Hamilton, a Republican-turned-Democrat megachurch pastor, has put the state in play.
A NYT/Siena poll of likely voters in Kansas showed a tied race between Hamilton and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who is seeking a second term. Marshall won his first Senate race in 2020 by double digits and Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024. Now, the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund will dedicate millions of dollars in advertising to defend Marshall.
Marshall, an OB-GYN, is facing blowback after reporting on his involvement in lawsuits over medical debt. Hamilton’s campaign has seized on the developments, drawing complaints from Marshall, who called the reporting a “hit job” during a debate last month and said he engaged in “common business practices.”
Marshall is also contending with the same Trump-related headwinds pressuring Republicans across the country, tariffs and fuel costs hitting Kansas and Iowa farmers alike. He’s taken some steps to distance himself from the president – releasing a statement last month chiding US Immigration and Customs Enforcement for “mass disruptions to local communities and businesses.”
Hamilton, meanwhile, is leaning into his partisan conversion to appeal to a broad set of voters, positioning himself apart from “dysfunction” in Washington. “We have to fix our broken politics by meeting in the middle,” he says in a top ad from last month. “It’s time for something different.”
Just last week, Mike Hayden became the second Republican former governor from the state to back Hamilton over Marshall. “I supported Roger Marshall before. But he has spent his time in the Senate putting party and politics over the people of Kansas,” Hayden wrote in an opinion piece. “It’s time for a change.”
Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff looks well-positioned in his reelection bid against his GOP challenger, Rep. Mike Collins.
Through the end of June, Ossoff had out-raised Collins, $77 million to $6.5 million, according to FEC records for their principal campaign committees.
It’s also the only Senate race where Democrats are set to have a significant ad spending lead over the final month ($23 million to $16 million) as Republicans appear wary of committing major resources to the contest – a significant contrast to races in Ohio.
Strategists on both sides are closely watching the governor’s race in the state as Republicans hope their candidate Rick Jackson can offer a boost to Collins. But Ossoff is also working hard to lift Democrats across Georgia, including gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms.
Many of these states seem like longshots but will still be on our radar until November.
Nebraska is another midwestern state feeling the economic strains of Trump’s war with Iran. The contest remains an uphill climb for independent candidate Dan Osborn, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2024, as he now challenges GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts.
South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham is running against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, for a full term after being appointed to her late brother Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat. One thing to watch here is how much GOP spending comes into the state in the final stretch. A Democrat hasn’t won a South Carolina Senate seat in nearly three decades.
Mississippi Democratic Senate nominee Scott Colom has attracted a lot of attention in his race against Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. But a Colom win is a longshot for Democrats in a state Trump won by nearly 23 points.
Minnesota Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is facing off against Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster turned conservative activist. Republicans are excited about Tafoya’s candidacy, but Minnesota went for Harris by 4 points in 2024 and is affected by the same headwinds as other Midwestern states.