2026年最有可能易主的10个参议院席位

The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026

2026-10-05T09:00:44.793Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/05/politics/10-senate-seats-most-likely-to-flip-2026

Nearly four weeks out from Election Day, the Senate battleground map is growing after signs of improvement for Democrats in several red-leaning states.

For the first time this year, CNN’s list of 9 Senate seats most likely to flip expands to 10 to include Kansas, which hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 94 years. A new wave of polling also shows Democrats ahead or competitive in red states like Ohio, Alaska and Texas. All four states went for President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024.

To win the Senate majority, Democrats will need to pick up four Republican-held seats while defending three of their own, including Michigan.

Trump’s approval rating stands at 34%, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls, amid high frustration over the economy and the war he launched against Iran. Democrats have also seen surging enthusiasm in special elections since Trump returned to office and early signs of elevated turnout in early voting.

But they have also expressed unease over the massive amount of spending coming from the GOP. From the start of October through Election Day, Republicans are poised to outspend Democrats on advertising in eight of the ten most competitive Senate races, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact, even though that advantage will be blunted by GOP-aligned outside groups having to spend more for ratings points than Democratic campaigns will.

Our ranking of the seats most likely to flip in November is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, as well as our analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The rankings are a snapshot of where the contests stand at this point and can shift as the midterm election season enters its final month.

North Carolina remains the state most likely to flip this year. Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper, who has made affordability issues a centerpiece of his campaign, has a strong position over GOP nominee Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman and Trump ally vying to replace Sen. Thom Tillis.

An Elon University/YouGov poll released last month showed Cooper up 11 points over Whatley among likely voters. The Senate Leadership Fund, a key Republican outside spending group, is pausing its ad campaign there. Over the weekend, Republican outside groups cut more than $15 million from their remaining ad bookings, according to AdImpact data.

Still, Trump campaigned with Whatley in North Carolina last month in an effort to turn out his base in a state he won three times.

Ohio moves up two spots on this list, a reflection of the prime position of former Sen. Sherrod Brown.

Brown, who lost reelection to a fourth term by less than four points two years ago, has led GOP Sen. Jon Husted in most polls. A New York Times/Siena University poll of likely voters conducted at the end of September showed a tight race, Brown at 49% and Husted at 46%, within the survey’s margin of error. A Marist poll of registered voters in Ohio showed Brown up eight points over Husted last month.

In the NYT/Siena University poll, Husted’s favorability is at 37% while Brown is at 46%. That’s perhaps a reflection of Brown having a longer history with many Ohio voters than Husted, the former lieutenant governor appointed to take Vice President JD Vance’s seat last year.

Brown’s attacks on Husted over data centers – calling him “the face of data centers in Ohio” – have proven particularly potent as Republicans’ campaign arm in Washington has warned the issue is an “anchor” on Husted’s campaign.

Senate Democrats last week blocked a Husted-sponsored bill that would have recommended states take action on data center-related energy costs. And campaigning for Husted on Saturday, Trump defended data centers in southwestern Ohio, a reflection of the president’s longstanding opposition to pausing their construction.

In one buzzy digital spot released last week, Brown’s campaign also featured voters using expletives as they reacted to Husted’s past comments suggesting people living in poverty are “not very experienced at navigating the real world.” (Brown’s campaign is running an expletive-free version of the ad on TV.)

Republicans have pulled from a 2024 playbook to run ads attacking Brown on transgender politics, hoping that will move the needle in the state. Brown has responded with a TV spot of his own featuring voters talking about how Ohio already has laws addressing transgender policies and wanting candidates to focus on other issues.

One big question heading into the final stretch is whether GOP spending could help tighten this race. Republican groups are set to spend more than $80 million there from the start of October through Election Day while Democrats have allotted more than $50 million.

Alaska moves up two spots. The enormous and sparsely populated state is notoriously hard to poll, but a NYT/Siena poll of likely voters released Saturday found Democrat Mary Peltola up seven points over GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, 50 to 43%.

November’s contest will be determined by ranked-choice voting, and two others join Sen. Sullivan and Peltola on the ballot, including another GOP candidate named Dan Sullivan, a former schoolteacher. The possibility of voters confusing the same-name candidates has been a point of concern for Republicans ahead of November.

Democrats consider Peltola, a former congresswoman, as one of their strongest recruits, and she’s kept some national Democratic politicians like former Vice President Kamala Harris at arm’s length at a time when her opponent attempts to tie to her to “lower-48 liberals.”

Sullivan stood beside Trump in the Oval Office to tout a $54 billion investment from South Korea for the Alaska LNG pipeline project just weeks before the election. Peltola also moved quickly to praise the president’s announcement, saying she looks forward to “continuing this bipartisan work” with Trump.

Peltola’s demeanor towards aides and use of vulgar rhetoric came under scrutiny last month with a New York Times report detailing allegations of hostile behavior from some former aides. Her campaign denied any pattern of abusive pattern but acknowledged that Peltola has struggled at times to deal with the deaths of her mother and husband in 2023. Alaska’s other Republican senator, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, also came to her defense, noting Peltola’s personal struggles.

4. Maine

Maine drops two spots on our list. But the race between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson remains extremely competitive as the two prepare to debate for the first time this week.

A University of New Hampshire poll conducted last month found Jackson slightly ahead of Collins among Maine likely voters – 51% to 47% – marking the first public survey showing the Democrat with the advantage in the state. Other recent polls, including a CNN survey conducted by SSRS and a NYT/Siena poll, have shown no clear leader.

Collins remains in a vulnerable position given Harris won her state by 7 points in 2024. Polling has indicated the contest hinges more on negative views of the Maine senator and Trump than it does on perceptions about her Democratic opponent.

Democrats have hammered Collins for siding with Trump on consequential votes even as she’s struck out on her own on issues like tariffs and the Iran war. They have also seized on a ProPublica report alleging Collins’ office was involved in a pay-to-play scheme during her 2020 campaign. Collins has forcefully denied the allegations as a “political hit job.”

Collins has survived tough reelection battles in the past, and Republicans are leaning hard on reminding constituents of what she’s accomplished for the state. GOP groups also have spent millions on corruption ads of their own against Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, along with TV spots hammering the Democrat on tax policy.

Starting Tuesday, Collins and Jackson will have four debates over ten days.

Texas jumps two spots with Democrat James Talarico in a stronger-than-expected position and Republicans in the middle of a nine-figure rescue mission to save Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Democrats believe Talarico’s broader appeal, coupled with unease with Paxton’s scandals and the leftward shift of Latino voters, are giving the party its most realistic chance of turning Texas blue in three decades.

A NYT/Siena poll conducted over the final nine days of September found Talarico up six points over Paxton among likely voters – 51% to 45%. Meanwhile, a Fox News poll released last week showed no clear leader in the contest, with Talarico at 51% and Paxton at 49%.

Paxton needs loyal Republicans, including those who sided with Cornyn in May, to turn out in November. Trump is doing his part to help with the base, arguing Paxton is a conservative fighter while mocking his personal appearance. After holding an event in Denton on Thursday, Trump will return to San Antonio for a rally on Wednesday – his second trip to the state in a week.

Over the final month, Republicans currently have a nearly 8-to-1 spending advantage in remaining ad reservations – about $70 million to $9 million. But like North Carolina, Republicans are relying on outside groups here and have made much of their bookings late in the cycle when ad inventories are stretched, imposing a premium on their spending.

Michigan shifts down three spots. The race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman who lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024 by 0.3%, remains one of the GOP’s few offensive opportunities this cycle.

A Marist poll of registered voters released last week showed El-Sayed up seven points over Rogers – 51% to 44%. But all polls of likely voters in September painted a different picture. with no clear leader in the contest, including the most recent survey released by Fox News on Wednesday.

The GOP spending advantage in this race is a major factor that could keep this race close up until Election Day. For the month of October, Republicans are set to spend more than $43 million while Democrats have reserved about $25 million. Republicans here have mounted a determined effort to paint El-Sayed as outside the mainstream, running in waves of ads calling the Democrat “dangerous” and “radical.” “He’s too extreme for Michigan, and your vote can stop him,” says an ad from a pro-Rogers group.

But frustration with Trump and concerns about the economy make the environment tough for Rogers in a state hit hard by tariffs and gas prices driven up by the Iran war.

According to the Fox News poll, 6 in 10 likely voters say they disapprove of the president’s performance, and 7 in 10 likely voters cite cost-of-living issues as extremely important. 39% are extremely concerned Rogers is too closely aligned to Trump while 36% said El-Sayed’s positions are too liberal, the same poll showed.

The GOP nominee has sought to create some distance from the president on Iran, calling for the war’s swift end amid rising prices – even though he praised Trump’s decision to start the conflict mere months ago. Rogers’ strategy hinges on winning over disaffected Democrats and independents, while also turning out the president’s base supporters, who aren’t as reliable of voters in elections where Trump is not on the ballot.

El-Sayed, meanwhile, recently appeared with Harris to drum up support from Black voters, including those who feel a protest movement against the Biden administration’s policy towards Israel and Gaza hurt her presidential run in 2024.

Though he still faces some skepticism from Jewish Democrats, he also won the endorsement of Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, one of the most prominent Jewish officials in the state.

El-Sayed and Rogers will have their first debate on Thursday.

The competitive contest in Iowa moves up one spot.

Two polls of likely voters released in the last week show Democratic nominee Josh Turek and GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson running neck-and-neck. A NYT/Siena poll of likely voters showed Hinson’s support at 48% and Turek at 47% while a Fox News poll found Turek at 49% and Hinson at 47%.

The agriculture-heavy state has felt the impacts of Trump policies like tariffs and the war in Iran, which have created price shocks for farm equipment, fertilizer and diesel. Trump’s approval rating in Iowa is at 42%, according to the Fox News poll, and more likely voters expressed concern about Hinson aligning too closely to Trump (52%) than that Turek’s position is too liberal (43%).

Turek has worked to link Hinson directly to Trump and recently ran an ad tying her votes to high gas prices in the state. Iowa is also home to three competitive House races and a gubernatorial contest where Democrats believe state auditor Rob Sand has a real chance of flipping the office blue and in turn helping Turek and others on the ballot.

Like Rogers in Michigan, Hinson has put some distance between herself and the Iran war, calling for its immediate end to drive down prices, and she’s criticized Trump’s moves on beef imports.

She also appeared alongside the president in the Oval Office as he announced plans for a $15 billion steel plant that could create 1,750 permanent jobs and thousands more temporary ones – though that promise has drawn some skepticism from Iowans from both parties.

Republicans are deploying additional money to the state to try to get Hinson across the finish line. The Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund upped their advertising spend by $20 million for the month of October, and Republicans are already on track to outspend Democrats in the state for the final weeks of the campaign.

New Hampshire has dropped two spots, but the competitive contest between Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and GOP former Sen. John Sununu is keeping Democrats on their toes.

A University of New Hampshire poll conducted in September showed Pappas up 8 points over Sununu with likely voters while a New York Times/Siena poll over roughly the same period revealed no clear leader in the contest.

Democrats ultimately believe their voters and independents will side with Pappas in a state Harris narrowly won in 2024, but Pappas has also warned that his party needs to prioritize the state more.

Sununu is a very familiar name for voters in New Hampshire, where his brother and father both served as governor. Democrats are spending significant time trying to remind voters which Sununu is on the ballot and attacking his lobbying background.

Republican strategists also feel Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who is polling ahead in her reelection bid, could create a lift for Sununu in November. But New Hampshire voters are well-known for splitting their tickets, and the environment for Republicans is still tough.

Kansas appears on this list for the first time as it emerges as a new headache for the GOP in the midterms’ final stretch.

Adam Hamilton, a Republican-turned-Democrat megachurch pastor, has put the state in play.

A NYT/Siena poll of likely voters in Kansas showed a tied race between Hamilton and Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who is seeking a second term. Marshall won his first Senate race in 2020 by double digits and Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024. Now, the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund will dedicate millions of dollars in advertising to defend Marshall.

Marshall, an OB-GYN, is facing blowback after reporting on his involvement in lawsuits over medical debt. Hamilton’s campaign has seized on the developments, drawing complaints from Marshall, who called the reporting a “hit job” during a debate last month and said he engaged in “common business practices.”

Marshall is also contending with the same Trump-related headwinds pressuring Republicans across the country, tariffs and fuel costs hitting Kansas and Iowa farmers alike. He’s taken some steps to distance himself from the president – releasing a statement last month chiding US Immigration and Customs Enforcement for “mass disruptions to local communities and businesses.”

Hamilton, meanwhile, is leaning into his partisan conversion to appeal to a broad set of voters, positioning himself apart from “dysfunction” in Washington. “We have to fix our broken politics by meeting in the middle,” he says in a top ad from last month. “It’s time for something different.”

Just last week, Mike Hayden became the second Republican former governor from the state to back Hamilton over Marshall. “I supported Roger Marshall before. But he has spent his time in the Senate putting party and politics over the people of Kansas,” Hayden wrote in an opinion piece. “It’s time for a change.”

Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff looks well-positioned in his reelection bid against his GOP challenger, Rep. Mike Collins.

Through the end of June, Ossoff had out-raised Collins, $77 million to $6.5 million, according to FEC records for their principal campaign committees.

It’s also the only Senate race where Democrats are set to have a significant ad spending lead over the final month ($23 million to $16 million) as Republicans appear wary of committing major resources to the contest – a significant contrast to races in Ohio.

Strategists on both sides are closely watching the governor’s race in the state as Republicans hope their candidate Rick Jackson can offer a boost to Collins. But Ossoff is also working hard to lift Democrats across Georgia, including gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms.

Many of these states seem like longshots but will still be on our radar until November.

Nebraska is another midwestern state feeling the economic strains of Trump’s war with Iran. The contest remains an uphill climb for independent candidate Dan Osborn, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2024, as he now challenges GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts.

South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham is running against Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, for a full term after being appointed to her late brother Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat. One thing to watch here is how much GOP spending comes into the state in the final stretch. A Democrat hasn’t won a South Carolina Senate seat in nearly three decades.

Mississippi Democratic Senate nominee Scott Colom has attracted a lot of attention in his race against Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. But a Colom win is a longshot for Democrats in a state Trump won by nearly 23 points.

Minnesota Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is facing off against Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster turned conservative activist. Republicans are excited about Tafoya’s candidacy, but Minnesota went for Harris by 4 points in 2024 and is affected by the same headwinds as other Midwestern states.