2026-08-30T10:30:30.305Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/30/politics/trump-midterms-election-fraud
人们纷纷揣测唐纳德·特朗普总统及其盟友可能会采取哪些手段干预即将到来的中期选举，而他早已在这方面有所行动。
这名男子甚至在自己赢得的两场选举中都声称存在大规模选民欺诈，还试图推翻2020年总统选举的结果——至今他仍拒不承认自己败选。目前没有任何证据表明存在此类欺诈行为。
近几个月来，当被问及特朗普在11月或选举后可能采取的一些极端行动时，他一直闪烁其词，但留下了充足的空间来煽动阴谋论。与此同时，他的高级助手们仍在不断提出关于投票机和非公民投票的毫无根据的担忧。
这些可能的极端举措——要么是猜测的话题，要么是特朗普盟友直接游说的目标——包括扣押票箱、宣布全国选举紧急状态，或是部署军队或移民海关执法局（ICE）人员前往投票站。特朗普在7月发表全国演讲谈及选举诚信时，并未承诺会采取上述任何行动。但猜测一直未断，尤其是在左翼政界，他们正努力在11月动员选民投票。
“特朗普在不断抛出各种说法，民众对此深信不疑，这让整个国家更加焦虑，形成了一个自我循环的怪圈，”长期担任共和党选举法律顾问的本·金斯伯格说道。
但他也表示，美国民众——以及选举工作人员——需要为突发情况做好准备。
“因为这类言论已经存在，而且（特朗普）自1月6日以来展现出了开展不对称战争的独特能力。作为选举官员，你必须做好准备，”他说。但金斯伯格同时指出，这种准备必须认清一个现实：“制造恐慌氛围本身或许就是其目标之一。”
今年2月，当记者问及此事时，特朗普似乎感到意外，表示自己对选举否认者推动他宣布全国选举紧急状态、并前所未有的广泛接管各州选举管理方式一事一无所知。
但本月，当保守派评论员韦恩·鲁特向他解释这一想法时，特朗普并未拒绝，却也没有表态支持。
“我只想说，比这更离奇的事情都发生过，好吧？我就说到这里，”特朗普说道。
宣布全国紧急状态的想法可以追溯到特朗普的第一任期，但从未被付诸实施。正如《华盛顿邮报》最先报道的那样，最近有支持者推动一项去年春季起草的行政命令，宣布全国紧急状态以赋予联邦政府对选举的新权力。这份行政命令草案声称，中国的干预是总统从各州手中接管选举控制权的理由——尽管美国情报机构显示，伊朗和俄罗斯一直在更积极地试图干预美国选举。特朗普从未签署过该命令。
在这些报道发布后的3月，特朗普签署了另一项行政行动，试图对邮寄投票施加新限制，并指示邮政服务部门禁止使用邮寄选票。该命令目前仍面临多起诉讼，似乎不太可能在11月前付诸实施。
包括播客主持人、前特朗普助手史蒂夫·班农在内的盟友仍在推动尽快宣布全国紧急状态，称此举可让特朗普获得文中所列的部分权力，例如派遣联邦特工前往投票站、扣押选票或投票机，以防范所谓的中国干预。
反对者如“民主捍卫者行动”联合创始人诺曼·艾森，该组织曾就多项问题多次起诉特朗普政府。他表示，美国曾在战争和疫情期间举行选举，无需宣布国家安全紧急状态。如果特朗普在未来几周试图宣布紧急状态，律师团队已准备好提起诉讼。
“没有任何权力允许总统因选举问题宣布紧急状态、扣押选票或采取其他任何行动。法院会驳回此类请求。我们已经准备就绪，”艾森周四对记者表示。
特朗普盟友和那些担忧选举诚信的人士辩称，可以派遣特工阻止无证移民投票。非公民投票或登记投票本身已是非法行为，每个州都有相关保护措施，确保每张选票都对应一名已登记选民，并对临时投票进行核实。
缅因州的一名共和党州长候选人已承诺请求派遣ICE人员前往投票站。选举由州和地方政府管理，因此提供安保是他们的职责。
各州法律各不相同，但根据联邦法律，任何人——包括执法人员——都不得恐吓选民。该法律还禁止“军队或武装人员”出现在投票站，除非他们正在击退美国的敌人。
班农也推动在投票站部署ICE人员。CNN记者加布·科恩早在3月就对此进行了详细分析。
特朗普的高级助手多次拒绝表示不会派遣ICE人员前往投票站，但也没有概述相关计划。
国土安全部部长马克韦恩·穆林在6月接受CNN记者卡西·亨特询问政府是否会派遣ICE人员前往投票站时，给出了一个相当含糊的回答。
他表示，特工不会自行前往核实选民的移民身份，而是会协助当地执法部门应对炸弹威胁等情况。
“我们不会主动上门，”他说。“只有在接到请求时才会到场，但不会出于移民执法目的。”
但与此同时，穆林受特朗普委托，负责清查州选民名册上的非公民名单。到目前为止，该过程仅提起了少量联邦指控，且发现的非法选民登记潜在证据远少于穆林最初暗示的数量。CNN记者加布·科恩对相关数据进行了梳理。在内华达州这个拥有300多万人口的州，国土安全部曾透露发现了超过1.5万名不符合资格的非公民选民登记，但据CNN审查的通讯记录，该部门仅“确认”了185人，且未向内华达州选举官员提供足够数据以供跟进。该州选举负责人表示。最近一份声称通过人口普查数据发现数万名非公民选民的声明同样含糊不清，无法核实。CNN报道中引用的专家称，使用人口普查数据是“白宫的劫持行为”。
他后悔当初没有这么做。
今年1月，《纽约时报》问及特朗普是否考虑在2020年下令国民警卫队扣押票箱时，特朗普表示：“嗯，我本该这么做的。”随后他补充道，他认为国民警卫队成员“不够老练”，无法胜任这项特定工作。
值得一提的是，本届政府今年扣押了与2020年选举相关的选票和投票机，尽管那已是多年之后的事。特朗普曾因2020年在佐治亚州试图推翻选举结果而面临刑事诉讼。这些案件在他2024年连任后基本不了了之，但本届政府试图扭转局面。特朗普此前的国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德曾在场见证联邦特工在亚特兰大所在的摇摆州佐治亚州富尔顿县扣押2020年选票。CNN最近报道称，联邦调查局已为相关调查配备了260名工作人员，但尚未提起任何指控，也未提供具体证据反驳特朗普败选的选举结果——该选举经历了多次重新计票，并由佐治亚州共和党官员监督。
如果在即将到来的选举结束后、结果揭晓、引发争议或进入诉讼程序前，任何扣押选票或投票机的行为都会立即引发法院诉讼。到目前为止，法院已在多场选举中驳回了特朗普质疑选举结果的努力。这并不意味着本届政府不会利用其权力，在其不认可选举结果的地区质疑选举存在问题。关键问题在于，美国选举体系能否经受住此类质疑。
民主党人士指出，2017年的一份长期存在的司法部备忘录被从该机构网站上移除，该备忘录曾规定美国政府政策是在选举结果敲定前不得获取选举材料。无论如何，预计特朗普领导的司法部会在特朗普不认可选举结果的地区，以更审慎的态度审视选举。
在11月选举前试图废除投票机认证似乎为时已晚。
在选举临近时采取任何此类行动都会引发大规模混乱；美国超过9.5万个投票点绝大多数都使用了投票机。今年，这些投票机对于统计可能高达1.5亿甚至更多的选票至关重要。共和党选举官员普遍表示，大多数美国人已经在使用纸质选票，而投票机在计票方面比人工更准确。
关于投票机的阴谋论已存在多年，但它们确实造成了后果。福克斯新闻因在2020年选举后散布关于多米尼克投票系统的谎言，同意支付7.87亿美元的诽谤诉讼和解金。当时，多米尼克是美国最大的投票机制造商。该公司的产品仍广泛应用于美国选举，但在2025年被密苏里州的一名前共和党选举官员收购，并更名为“自由投票”。新老板斯科特·莱恩德克承认特朗普在2020年选举中失利。
但投票机一直是特朗普关注的主要问题——质疑投票机长期以来一直是他对美国选举制度抱怨清单中的重中之重。
据《纽约时报》报道，2020年特朗普败选后，白宫外的支持者向他提出了一项计划，要求在其支持者声称存在欺诈的关键州扣押投票机。当时并未拿出任何令人信服的欺诈证据，法院也驳回了对选举结果的质疑。
2020年，司法部和国土安全部的官员曾告知特朗普，若无合理理由，他无权扣押投票机。
在特朗普的第二任期内，选举否认者在白宫和国土安全部担任了一些关键职务。高级领导人对他的想法更加顺从，这使得在特朗普不认可选举结果的地区，联邦监督可能会更加积极。但特朗普要质疑选举结果，必须先知晓选举结果。投票机带有纸质记录，可以进行审计。这些事实不会改变。此外，如果本届政府试图扣押投票机，必然会引发诉讼。
2025年，加巴德领导下的国家情报总监办公室曾对波多黎各的投票机进行漏洞检查，尽管政府未发现任何投票机被篡改的证据。CNN记者肖恩·林加斯本月报道称，该调查机构未发现欺诈证据，却因此遭到强烈反对和所谓的抹黑运动。
路透社去年报道称，在白宫工作的选举阴谋论传播者库尔特·奥尔森曾推动在全国范围内禁止使用多米尼克投票系统生产的投票机。该计划最终不了了之，但却反映了本届政府对投票机的看法。国土安全部部长马克韦恩·穆林曾表示，由于三家投票机制造商都使用了部分中国生产的零部件，因此这些投票机不可信。
穆林还提议，各州若不按一定比例手工计票，就将扣留其依赖的联邦安全援助资金。
由于各州自行认证选举结果，此举将困难重重。
特朗普历来会试图阻挠其不认可的选举结果认证，而全国一些关键职位上也有选举否认者。每场选举都会有两党代表实时监督。人们偶尔会担心党派选举观察员可能会扰乱选举，但从未出现过影响民众投票的情况。
但如果选举委员会或选举官员拒绝认证选举结果，必然会引发诉讼，州和联邦法院历来都不太愿意让此类质疑拖延不决。
塔米·帕特里克是亚利桑那州马里科帕县前选举官员，现任两党政策中心选举项目主管。她表示，美国拥有多层保障体系，确保选举顺利进行并获得认证。
“到目前为止，我们体系的制衡机制一直在发挥作用，”帕特里克说。她表示，存在横向制衡，即共和党人和民主党人在选举期间和选举后实时监督选举进程。同时也存在纵向制衡，即州官员对地方选举工作人员和选举委员会的工作进行核查。
还有一种边缘理论——杰弗里·图宾在《纽约时报》中详细阐述了这种疯狂构想——称众议院共和党人可能会拒绝为新当选的民主党议员登记席位。至少可以说，这将是2021年1月6日事件的不受欢迎的重演，而且会违反第20条修正案。该理论依赖于某些议会诡计和众议院书记员这位非选举官员的默许，试图在选举后通过特朗普声称存在大规模欺诈的说法，以孤注一掷的方式阻止新当选的民主党议员就职。这必然会引发广泛的愤怒，包括许多共和党人的反对。目前来看，这一想法过于牵强，不值得过分关注。
帕特里克表示，选举工作人员会在选举日前提前设想各种可能发生的情况。
“选举官员都是规划者，”她说。“他们会尽力思考‘如果____会发生什么？’，然后填补空白。”
近年来的选举中，他们越来越频繁地遭遇炸弹威胁或可疑物品发现事件。
例如，2024年，多个关键州的投票站收到了来自带有俄罗斯电子邮件域名地址的炸弹威胁邮件。她说，尽管这些威胁当时并未干扰投票，但地方官员预计这类恶作剧会更多。
尽管有诸多关于可能发生情况的猜测，但值得注意的是，白宫和共和党已经采取了前所未有的努力，为己方争取选举优势。
特朗普在第二任期内专注于此，已经试图利用总统权力，以及他在国会以及各州盟友中的影响力，改变美国人今年投票的方式、时间和选区划分。
这场影响力运动与宪法相悖，宪法将选举的“时间、地点和方式”交由各州负责。到目前为止，其效果喜忧参半。
共和党在特朗普发起的得克萨斯州重新划分选区的战争中赢得了首轮胜利，并蔓延至其他州。如果选民按照地图绘制者的预测投票，本届国会选区重新划分可能会为共和党额外赢得最多10个席位，11月投票前即可兑现。最高法院削弱了《选举权法案》对少数族裔选民的保护，为这一行动提供了助力，这意味着这场战争将延续至未来选举，成为特朗普对美国民主造成的持久影响。
他呼吁出台新的公民身份证明法，但就连共和党控制的美国参议院简单多数票都无法获得。
到目前为止，法院已经阻止了他利用行政权力针对邮寄投票的努力，尤其是在蓝州，但相关诉讼仍在继续。
尽管最高法院没有立即驳回他利用邮政服务让各州在邮寄投票方面设置重重障碍的努力，但目前尚不清楚该行动能否在11月中期选举前付诸实施。北卡罗来纳州将于9月初向选民邮寄首批邮寄选票。每个州对邮寄选票（以及总体选举）都有不同的规则和政策。
特朗普还试图利用联邦政府的权力对付各州。他领导的国土安全部要求获取州选民名册，就连一些红色州也对此表示反对。
他们还削弱并边缘化了负责协调应对外国选举干预的网络安全和基础设施安全局（CISA），而与此同时情报机构显示，外国政府一直在试图干预美国选举。
以上都是已经发生的事情。人们对特朗普可能采取的其他行动——以及他的盟友鼓励他采取的行动——充满担忧，这让选举观察员忧心忡忡，尽管他们对美国分散、复杂的选举体系抱有信心，认为该体系不可能被操纵。
Last-minute doomsday scenarios for the 2026 election
2026-08-30T10:30:30.305Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/30/politics/trump-midterms-election-fraud
Imaginations run wild at what President Donald Trump and his allies might yet do to interfere in the coming midterm election. He’s already done quite a bit.
This is the man who alleged widespread voter fraud even in the two elections he won and who tried to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election he still won’t admit he lost. There’s no evidence of any such fraud.
Asked in recent months about some more extreme possible actions he could take in November or after, Trump has stayed coy while leaving ample room to stoke conspiracy theories, even as his top aides have continued to raise unsubstantiated concerns about voting machines and noncitizens voting.
Some of these extreme possible measures — which have been the subject of either speculation or direct lobbying by Trump allies — include seizing ballot boxes, declaring a national election emergency, or deploying troops or ICE agents to polling places. When Trump in July gave an address to the nation on election integrity, he did not promise to do any of these things. But speculation has persisted, particularly on the political left as it tries to get out the vote in November.
“Trump is throwing stuff out there. People are biting on it, and it makes the country as a whole more nervous, and is a self-perpetuating cycle,” said Ben Ginsberg, a longtime Republican election lawyer.
But he also said the country — and election workers — needs to be ready for the unexpected.
“Because the rhetoric is there and (Trump) has shown a singular ability for asymmetrical warfare starting on January 6. If you’re an election official, you have to be preparing,” he said. But that preparation must come, Ginsberg said, with the knowledge that “the creation of a climate of fear is maybe a goal in and of itself.”
When a reporter asked in February, Trump seemed surprised and said he didn’t know anything about a push by election deniers for him to declare a national election emergency and seize broad and unprecedented control over how states run elections.
But this month, when the idea was explained to him by conservative commentator Wayne Root, Trump didn’t reject it, but also didn’t endorse it.
“Let me just say that stranger things have happened, OK? I’ll leave it at that,” Trump said.
The idea for declaring a national emergency dates back to Trump’s first term, although it was never employed. More recently, as the Washington Post first reported, supporters have been pushing an executive order, written last spring, that would declare a national emergency to enact new federal powers over elections. The draft EO claims meddling by China justifies the president seizing control over elections from states — even though US intelligence suggests Iran and Russia have more actively tried to meddle in US elections. Trump never signed the order.
Shortly after those first reports, in March, Trump did sign a different executive action that sought to put new limits on mail-in voting and to direct the Postal Service against the use of mail-in ballots. That order is still the subject of multiple lawsuits and seems unlikely to be implemented before November.
Allies like podcaster and former Trump aide Steve Bannon are still pushing for a national emergency declaration soon because it could, they say, unlock power for Trump to do some of what’s listed below, such as dispatching federal agents to polling places or seizing ballots or voting machines to guard against supposed Chinese interference.
Opponents like Norm Eisen, cofounder of Democracy Defenders Action, a group that has repeatedly sued the Trump administration on a variety of issues, said US elections have taken place during wars and pandemics without national security declarations and lawyers are standing by to challenge Trump if he tries to declare one in the coming weeks.
“There’s no power to declare emergency relating to our elections to seize ballots or do anything else. Courts are going to slap it down. We’re ready to go fast,” Eisen told reporters Thursday.
The argument from Trump allies and those worried about election integrity is that agents could be used to deter undocumented immigrants from casting ballots. It is already illegal for noncitizens to vote or register to vote, and there are protections in every state to make sure each vote corresponds to a voter registration and for votes cast provisionally to be verified.
A Republican candidate for governor in Maine has promised to request ICE agents at polling stations. Elections are run by state and local governments, so it is their job to provide security.
Laws vary from state to state, but it is illegal under federal law for anyone – including law enforcement – to intimidate voters. The law also prohibits “troops or armed men” from polling places unless they are repelling enemies of the US.
Bannon has also pushed for ICE agents at polls. CNN’s Gabe Cohen unpacked all of this back in March.
Top Trump aides have repeatedly declined to say that ICE agents will not be sent to polling places, but they have also not outlined plans to send them.
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin gave a somewhat convoluted answer to CNN’s Kasie Hunt back in June when she asked if the administration would dispatch ICE agents to polling places.
He said agents would not go on their own to verify the immigration status of voters, but rather to help local law enforcement respond to things like bomb threats.
“We wouldn’t show up on our own,” he said. “We would be getting asked to show up, but not for immigration purposes.”
In the meantime, however, Mullin has been tasked by Trump with rooting out instances of noncitizens on state voter rolls, a process which has so far yielded few federal charges and far less evidence of potential illegal voter registrations than initially suggested by Mullin. CNN’s Gabe Cohen has pored over the data. In Nevada, a state of more than 3 million people, DHS teased that more than 15,000 ineligible noncitizen voter registrations were discovered, but, according to communications reviewed by CNN, only “confirmed” 185, and didn’t give Nevada officials enough data to follow up, according to the state’s election leaders. A recent release claiming tens of thousands of noncitizen voters were found using Census data was equally vague and impossible to verify. Experts quoted in CNN’s report called the use of Census data a “hijack by the White House.”
He regrets not doing it before.
When the New York Times asked in January if he considered ordering the National Guard to seize ballot boxes in 2020, Trump said, “Well, I should have,” before qualifying that he doesn’t think Guardsmen are “sophisticated enough” to do that particular job.
It’s worth noting here that the administration has this year seized ballots and machines related to the 2020 election, although that’s years after the fact. Trump was once the subject of criminal cases related to his efforts to overturn election results in Georgia in 2020. Those cases essentially went away after he was reelected in 2024, but the administration has tried to flip the script. Trump’s previous director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, was present when federal agents seized 2020 ballots in Fulton County, which includes Atlanta, in the swing state of Georgia. CNN recently reported the FBI has detailed 260 staff members to a resulting investigation, although no charges have been filed and no specific evidence of wrongdoing has been provided to dispute the results of the election Trump lost, which was the subject of multiple recounts, and which was overseen by Republican officials in Georgia.
Any effort to seize ballots or machines after the coming election — before the outcome was known, contested or litigated — would be the subject of immediate court action. Courts have so far rejected Trump’s efforts, across multiple elections, to dispute results. That doesn’t mean the administration will not use its power to suggest there are issues in elections where it disagrees with the outcome. The question will be whether the system can withstand those inquiries.
Democrats have flagged that a longstanding Justice Department memo dating back to 2017 that made it US government policy not to seek election materials until after an election had been settled was removed from the agency’s website. In any event, Trump’s DOJ can be expected to put a much more circumspect eye on elections in places where Trump does not like the outcome.
It seems far too late to attempt decertifying voting machines before November’s elections.
Doing anything this close to an election would sow major chaos; voting machines are utilized in the vast majority of the nation’s more than 95,000 voting locations. This year they will be essential to count potentially 150 million or more votes. Republican election officials are among those who will generally tell you most Americans already use a paper ballot and the voting machines are more accurate at counting them than humans.
Conspiracy theories about voting machines have persisted for years, but they have had consequences. Fox News agreed to a $787 million settlement for a defamation lawsuit for lies it spread after the 2020 election about Dominion Voting Systems, then the largest manufacturer of voting machines used in the US. Dominion’s products are still prevalent in US elections, but the company was bought in 2025 by a former Republican election official from Missouri and rebranded as Liberty Vote. The new owner, Scott Leiendecker, acknowledges that Trump lost the 2020 election.
But voting machines have been a major issue for Trump – and questioning them has long been high on his list of complaints about the US system.
After he lost the 2020 election, Trump was presented with a plan dreamed up by supporters outside the White House, according to The New York Times, to seize voting machines in key states where his supporters alleged there was fraud. No compelling evidence of fraud was ever produced, and courts rejected challenges to the election results.
Trump was told by officials at the Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security in 2020 that he lacked the authority to seize machines without probable cause.
Election deniers are in some key roles at the White House and the Department of Homeland Security during Trump’s second term. And top leaders have been more pliant to his whims, which opens the possibility of more active federal oversight in areas where Trump does not like election results. But the results of an election would have to be known before Trump could dispute them. The machines have a paper trail and can be audited. Those facts would not change. Plus, there would be lawsuits if the administration tried to take machines.
The DNI under Gabbard examined voting machines in Puerto Rico for vulnerabilities in 2025, although the government has not found any evidence that voting machines were compromised. CNN’s Sean Lyngaas reported this month about backlash and an alleged smear campaign against the small cybersecurity firm tapped to investigate the machines when it found no evidence of fraud.
Reuters reported last year that Kurt Olsen, a spreader of election conspiracy theories who works in the White House, had pushed the idea of a nationwide ban on voting machines produced by Dominion Voting Systems. The plan went nowhere, but is indicative of how the administration views voting machines. DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin has suggested that because three companies that produce voting machines utilize some parts made in China, the machines cannot be trusted.
Mullin has also proposed holding federal security aid states rely on unless they hand count a certain percentage of ballots.
It would be difficult since states certify their own election results.
Trump has a history of trying to stand in the way of certification of results he disagrees with and there are election deniers in some key posts around the country. Every election is subject to real-time observation by representatives from both political parties. There have been periodic concerns raised that partisan election watchers could seek to disrupt elections, although that has not occurred in a way that has affected how people vote.
But if an election board or election officials refused to certify election results, it would be the subject of lawsuits and both state and federal courts have historically shown little interest in letting challenges linger.
Tammy Patrick is a former Maricopa County, Arizona, election official who now oversees election programs at the Bipartisan Policy Center. She said there is a multilayered system that makes sure US elections go smoothly and are certified.
“So far, the checks and balances of our system have held,” Patrick said. There are horizontal checks, she said, where Republicans and Democrats observe what’s happening in real time and after the election. There are also vertical checks, where state officials check the work of local election workers and election boards.
There is a fringe theory — Jeffrey Toobin laid out the fever dream in the New York Times — that House Republicans could refuse to seat new Democratic members of Congress. It would be an unpopular redux of January 6, 2021, to say the least, and run afoul of the 20th Amendment. Relying on some parliamentary trickery and the complacency of the unelected official known as the clerk of the House, it would rely on Trump declaring there had been rampant fraud after the election in a Hail Mary attempt at blocking the new Democrats from being seated. Widespread outrage, including from many Republicans, could be expected. It seems too far-fetched to focus on at the moment.
Patrick said election workers game out potential scenarios before Election Day.
“Election officials are planners,” she said. “They have tried to think through ‘What would happen if __?’ and then fill in the blank.”
One thing they have encountered increasingly in recent elections is bomb threats or the discovery of suspicious substances.
Bomb threats mailed in from addresses with Russian email domains, for instances, were sent to multiple polling locations in key states in 2024. Although none of those threats disrupted voting at the time, she said local officials will be expecting more of that type of shenanigans.
For all the conjecture about what might happen, it’s worth noting that the White House and Republicans have already undertaken an unprecedented effort to sway the election in their favor.
With singular focus in his second term, Trump has already tried to use the power of his presidency, and his influence both in congress and over his allies in states to alter how, when and in what districts Americans will vote this year.
That influence campaign is at odds with the Constitution, which leaves the “times, places and manner” of holding elections to the states. And results so far have been mixed.
The GOP clearly won the first round of a redistricting war Trump started in Texas and which spread to other states. The redrawing of congressional maps this cycle could net Republicans up to 10 new seats, if voters do as map-drawers predicted, before votes are cast in November. That effort got an assist from the Supreme Court’s gutting of protections for minority voters in the Voting Rights Act, which means the war will continue into future elections as a lasting effect of Trump on US democracy.
His calls for a new proof-of-citizenship law don’t even have the votes needed to get a simple majority in the GOP-controlled US Senate.
Courts, so far, have stood in the way of his efforts to use executive power to target mail-in voting, particularly in blue states, but court cases continue.
While the Supreme Court did not immediately dismiss his effort to use the USPS to make states jump through hoops for mail-in voting, it’s not clear that effort will come to pass for the midterms in November. The first mail-in ballots will be sent to voters in North Carolina in early September. Each state has different rules and policies for mail-in ballots (and their elections in general).
Trump has also tried to use the power of the federal government against states. His DHS has demanded state voter rolls, something even some red states have fought.
They’ve also hobbled and sidelined the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, CISA, which is charged with coordinating responses to foreign election interference at the same time intelligence suggests foreign governments have tried to meddle in US elections.
That’s what has already happened. There is plenty of fear about other things Trump might do — and what his allies have encouraged him to do — that’s giving election-watchers heartburn even as they project confidence in an American election system that is decentralized, complicated, which makes it impossible to rig.