2026-10-18T09:00:37-04:00 / 福克斯新闻频道
共和党面临扩大的参议院战场，民主党力争中期选举拿下多数席位
作者：保罗·施泰因豪泽 福克斯新闻
发布于2026年10月18日 美国东部时间上午9:00
参议员蒂姆·斯科特与主播约翰·罗伯茨一同剖析中期选举临近之际的参议院控制权之争。二人分析了最新的实力排名、关键摇摆选区以及生活成本等核心经济议题。斯科特还谈到了在选民投票仅剩19天之际，共和党拿下参议院多数席位的战略。
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民主党如今拓宽了原本狭窄的夺回参议院多数席位的路径，距离选举日仅余两周多一点，但他们需要赢得多场竞争激烈的选区才能掌控参议院。
如果民主党在中期选举中掀起大规模蓝色浪潮，他们在下一届参议院的席位可能达到52个甚至53个。但如果共和党表现优于民调结果，他们就能保住目前53-47的多数席位优势。
以下是当前的战场格局，以及两党在中期选举中争取参议院多数席位的途径。
最新的实力排名显示，两党在中期选举中各拿下47个席位，仅剩6场被定为真正的摇摆选区。此外还有3场被定为倾向某一方的选区，距离摇摆选区仅一步之遥。这九场对决很可能将决定民主党能否净增四个席位从而掌控参议院，还是共和党得以保住多数地位。
民主党看到翻参议院席位新机遇，但共和党巨额资金优势成阻碍
福克斯新闻实力排名参议院预测图。(雷米·努马/福克斯新闻)
“九场角逐将决定参议院的控制权，仅看民调的话，任何一场都能被归为摇摆选区，”负责福克斯新闻实力排名的福克斯新闻撰稿人雷米·努马说道。
共和党正面临政治历史的考验：华盛顿执政党通常会在中期选举年丢失席位。持续高企的民众在杂货店感受到的通胀、与伊朗不受欢迎的战争推高的油价，以及唐纳德·特朗普总统日益下滑的支持率，都让共和党面临艰难的政治环境。
在实力排名的九场竞争激烈的选区中，共和党目前掌控其中六个席位，因此共和党比民主党更多地处于防守姿态。
这六个摇摆州分别是：阿拉斯加州，参议员丹·沙利文正寻求连任，对手是民主党挑战者、前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉；艾奥瓦州，众议员阿什利·辛森正努力保住即将退休的参议员乔尼·恩斯特的席位，对抗民主党州众议员乔希·图雷克；缅因州，长期担任共和党议员的苏珊·柯林斯正寻求连任，对手是民主党挑战者、前州参议院议长特洛伊·杰克逊。
民主党认为蓝色浪潮正在形成——以下是三个可能阻止它的因素
福克斯新闻实力排名参议院预测图。(雷米·努马/福克斯新闻)
此外还有俄亥俄州：被任命的共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特德正竞选完成现任副总统JD·万斯2022年当选的剩余任期，对手是长期担任民主党议员的谢罗德·布朗。而在得克萨斯州，州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿正与民主党州众议员詹姆斯·塔莱里科角逐接替即将退休的共和党参议员约翰·科宁的席位，帕克斯顿此前在激烈的共和党初选中击败了科宁。
民主党在密歇根州也处于防守姿态：该州提名候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德正努力保住即将退休的参议员加里·彼得斯的民主党席位，对手是前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯。
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2026年8月29日，美国参议院提名候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德在密歇根州兰辛举行的密歇根民主党代表大会上发表讲话。(保罗·施泰因豪泽/福克斯新闻)
民主党在新罕布什尔州同样处于防守姿态：众议员克里斯·帕帕斯正努力保住即将退休的参议员珍妮·沙欣的民主党席位，对手是前共和党参议员约翰·E·苏努努。实力排名将这场选区定为“倾向民主党”。
明尼苏达州的情况类似：民主党副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根正努力保住即将退休的参议员蒂娜·史密斯的民主党席位。
但上周的实力排名将这个倾向蓝色的州的选区评级从“大概率民主党”下调至“倾向民主党”，因为共和党候选人米歇尔·塔福亚的支持率似乎在上升。
民主2026：随时了解福克斯新闻选举中心最新动态
与此同时，共和党在倾向红色的堪萨斯州也处于防守姿态：共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔正面临艰难的连任竞选，对手是民主党挑战者、牧师亚当·汉密尔顿。实力排名将该选区定为“倾向共和党”。
努马以堪萨斯、明尼苏达和新罕布什尔州为例表示：“这些州的选民构成和历史让它们在预测中被定为‘倾向民主党’和‘倾向共和党’，但这次的选区地图有所扩大，除了明尼苏达州这个北极星之州，大部分都转向了红色阵营。”
与此同时，有两个州如今基本已不在共和党考虑范围内。
佐治亚州在2026年选举周期开始时是共和党首要目标，但民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫在这个东南部的关键战场中对共和党挑战者、众议员迈克·柯林斯保持着稳固领先。共和党外部团体已大幅削减在佐治亚州的竞选开支，福克斯新闻实力排名将该选区定为“大概率民主党”。
在邻近的北卡罗来纳州，共和党似乎已放弃了即将退休的参议员汤姆·蒂利斯的席位。共和党团体已停止为共和党提名候选人迈克·沃特利投入竞选资金，沃特利在民调中落后于民主党提名候选人、前州长罗伊·库珀。福克斯新闻实力排名也将该选区定为“大概率民主党”。
如果民主党守住佐治亚、密歇根、明尼苏达和新罕布什尔州，拿下北卡罗来纳州，并翻转五个共和党掌控的摇摆选区中的至少三个，就能赢得参议院多数席位。
“参议院民主党人处于有史以来最有利的位置来拿下多数席位——我们有多种途径翻转共和党掌控的席位，并且在全国范围内势头越来越强劲，”民主党参议院竞选委员会主席、纽约州参议员柯尔斯滕·吉利布兰德在近期的一份声明中称赞道。
相反，如果共和党至少守住他们需要防守的三个摇摆选区，就能保住参议院控制权。如果出现50-50的平局，副总统JD·万斯拥有决定性投票权，参议院将仍由共和党掌控。
2026年10月13日，副总统JD·万斯在德克萨斯州泰勒的泰勒·庞兹地区机场举行的竞选集会上发表讲话。万斯正在全国范围内为11月中期选举 ballot上的共和党候选人助选。(索尔·洛布-普尔/盖蒂图片社)
吉利布兰德的 counterpart、全国共和党参议院竞选委员会主席、南卡罗来纳州参议员蒂姆·斯科特仍保持乐观。
“我认为我们的形势非常好，”斯科特周四在福克斯新闻《美国报道》节目接受采访时表示。“坦率地说，势头在我们这边，而不是在对方那边。”
如果共和党能主动出击，他们的多数席位优势可能会进一步巩固。尽管苏努努翻转新罕布什尔州席位的可能性似乎在降低，但共和党对罗杰斯能在密歇根州击败埃尔赛义德持乐观态度。特朗普预计将于本月晚些时候与罗杰斯在这个五大湖关键战场举行集会。
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与此同时，斯科特将目光投向了明尼苏达州的翻转机会。
“米歇尔·塔福亚的竞选非常独立，支持率上升势头强劲，”他告诉福克斯新闻。“我认为我们会缩小差距。如果出现十月惊喜，明尼苏达州就会倒向共和党。”
保罗·施泰因豪泽为福克斯新闻全程报道全国竞选活动
The nine key races that will decide who controls the Senate, and where they stand
2026-10-18T09:00:37-04:00 / Fox News
Republicans face expanding Senate battlefield as Democrats chase midterm takeover
By Paul Steinhauser Fox News
Published October 18, 2026 9:00am EDT
Senator Tim Scott joins anchor John Roberts to break down the battle for Senate control as the midterm elections approach. They analyze the latest power rankings, key toss-up races, and top economic issues like the cost of living. Scott discusses Republican strategies to win the majority with nineteen days left before voters head to the polls.
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Democrats have expanded their once-narrow path to reclaiming the Senate majority with just over two weeks until Election Day, but they’ll need to win several competitive races to take control of the chamber.
If Democrats ride a massive blue wave in the midterm elections, they could end up with 52 or even 53 seats in the next Senate. But if Republicans out-perform the polls, they could hold their majority, which currently stands at 53-47.
Here’s a look at the current battlefield and both parties’ routes to securing a Senate majority in the midterms.
The latest Power Rankings point to Democrats and Republicans each taking 47 seats in the midterms, leaving six races rated as true toss-ups. Additionally, three races are rated as leaners — one step shy of a toss-up. These nine showdowns will likely determine whether the Democrats make a net gain of four seats to win control of the Senate or if the GOP holds the majority.
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Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
“Nine races will determine control of the Senate, and on the polling alone, you could call any of them toss-ups,” said Remy Numa, a Fox News contributor who steers the network’s Power Rankings.
The GOP is fighting political history, as the party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats during midterm election years. Republicans also face a challenging political climate fueled by persistent inflation Americans see at the grocery store, high gas prices tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and President Donald Trump’s increasingly negative approval ratings.
With Republicans controlling the seats in six of the nine competitive races in the Power Rankings, the GOP is playing more defense than the Democrats.
The six toss-up states are Alaska, where Sen. Dan Sullivan is seeking re-election against Democratic challenger and former Rep. Mary Peltola; Iowa, where Rep. Ashley Hinson is trying to keep retiring Sen. Joni Ernst’s seat in GOP hands against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek; and Maine, where longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for re-election against former state Senate President Troy Jackson, the Democratic challenger.
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Fox News Power Rankings Senate forecast.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Also on the list is Ohio, where appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted is running to serve the final two years of the term won in 2022 by now-Vice President JD Vance. He’s facing former longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. And in Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton is battling Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the race to succeed longtime GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who was ousted by Paxton in a bitter Republican primary.
Democrats are playing defense in Michigan, the sixth toss-up, where nominee Abdul El-Sayed is trying to keep party control of retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ seat, as he faces former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers.
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U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed speaks at the Michigan Democratic Party convention, on August 29, 2026 in Lansing, Michigan.(Paul Steinhauser/Fox News)
Democrats are also on defense in New Hampshire, where Rep. Chris Pappas is aiming to keep retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s seat blue against former GOP Sen. John E. Sununu. The Power Rankings rate the race “Lean Democrat.”
It’s a similar story in Minnesota, where Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is trying to keep retiring Sen. Tina Smith’s seat in party hands.
But the Power Rankings this past week shifted the race in the blue-leaning state toward the GOP, from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat, as Republican nominee Michele Tafoya appears to gain traction.
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Meanwhile, the GOP is on defense in red-leaning Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces a difficult re-election fight against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a pastor. The Power Rankings rate the race Lean Republican.
Numa, pointing to Kansas, Minnesota and New Hampshire, said that “the voter profiles and histories of those states are keeping them at ‘Lean D’ and ‘Lean R’ on the forecast, but this map has expanded, and with the exception of the North Star State, mostly into red territory.”
Meanwhile, two states are now pretty much off the table for the GOP.
Georgia was a top Republican target when the 2026 cycle began, but Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff holds a solid lead over GOP challenger Rep. Mike Collins in the southeastern battleground. Republican outside groups have cut their spending significantly in Georgia, and the Fox News Power Rankings rate the race as Likely Democrat.
In neighboring North Carolina, Republicans appear to have conceded the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Republican groups have pulled the plug on spending on behalf of GOP nominee Mike Whatley, who trails former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee, in polling. The Fox News Power Rankings also rate this race as Likely Democrat.
The Democrats win the majority if they run the table by holding Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, and flip North Carolina as well as at least three of the five GOP-controlled toss-up states.
“Senate Democrats are in the strongest position yet to win the majority – with multiple paths to flip GOP-held seats and growing momentum across the map,” Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair, touted in a recent statement.
Conversely, Republicans would keep control of the chamber by holding at least three of the toss-ups where they’re playing defense. A 50-50 Senate would remain in GOP hands, thanks to the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance.
Vice President JD Vance speaks during a campaign rally at Tyler Pounds Regional Airport on Oct. 13, 2026, in Tyler, Texas. Vance is campaigning across the country for Republican candidates on the November midterm ballot.(Saul Loeb-Pool/Getty Images)
Gillibrand’s counterpart, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, remains optimistic.
“I think it’s going very well for us,” Scott said Thursday in an interview on Fox News “America Reports.” “The momentum, frankly, is with us, not against us.”
The GOP majority could be bolstered if the party goes on offense. While chances of Sununu flipping New Hampshire appear to be receding, Republicans are optimistic Rogers can top El-Sayed in Michigan. Trump is expected to hold a rally with Rogers in the Great Lakes battleground later this month.
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Meanwhile, Scott has his eyes on a flip in Minnesota.
“Michele Tafoya is running a very independent campaign, lots of traction,” he told Fox News. “I think we close that gap. And if there’s an October surprise, Minnesota goes Republican.”
Paul Steinhauser covers the national campaign trail from coast to coast for Fox News