国际能源署：全球能源市场恐至2027年仍难恢复正常

2026年10月21日 22:08 / 联合早报

• 国际能源署署长比罗尔警告，受中东局势及供应链受阻影响，全球能源市场恐至2027年仍难恢复正常。 – 比罗尔指出柴油价格已较战前翻倍，随着需求走高季节来临及炼油厂检修，供应压力或进一步加剧。 – 摩根史丹利预测，因炼油设施迎来异常庞大的计划检修，全球成品油供应紧张局面或持续至2027年中。 – 高盛报告指，中东战争致原油海运费过去一年升至约七倍，并提醒多重因素或给油价预测带来上行风险。

柴油价格上涨对美国经济的影响已波及食品、服饰及其他日用品价格。图为新泽西州一处加油站员工为卡车加油。 （法新社）

（伦敦／德黑兰综合电）国际能源署署长比罗尔警告，受中东局势持续动荡及能源供应链受阻影响，全球能源市场在2027年恐仍难恢复正常。

比罗尔星期二（10月20日）在伦敦出席《金融时报》能源转型峰会时说，他看不出有什么可靠的途径，能让全球能源市场在2027年恢复正常，并警告霍尔木兹海峡仍可能再次关闭。

“我非常担心中东地区可能出现多场危机交织叠加的局面……这可能导致局势进一步升级，并对能源市场造成严重影响。”

据伊朗媒体报道，伊朗革命卫队星期二宣称，三艘油轮试图沿德黑兰认定为非法的航道穿越霍尔木兹海峡时触雷。其中两艘触雷后起火停驶；第三艘载有超过200万桶原油的超级油轮，则在海峡以南触雷后爆炸。

最新的船只遇袭消息传出后，布伦特原油期货价格星期三（21日）上午盘中一度冲破每桶111美元，过后略微退低，截至傍晚每桶约110美元。

油价新一轮攀高反映市场对美伊冲突可能升级的担忧。不过，石油仍持续从中东地区运出。

商品数据机构Kpler星期二公布的数据显示，截至10月18日的一周，涵盖霍尔木兹海峡、红海和阿曼湾等路线的石油外运量，七日移动日均值略高于每天2400万桶，超过战前每天约2330万桶的水平。

IEA：柴油价格翻倍 供应压力恐进一步加剧

比罗尔认为，单凭原油价格走势评估当前能源危机的严重程度，是一种“短视”的做法。尽管原油价格并未如一些分析师在战事初期所预测般飙升至每桶200美元，但柴油价格已比战前水平高出一倍。

他指出，评估能源危机不能只看原油价格，因为人们实际使用的是石油产品。随着柴油需求通常走高的季节来临，许多大型炼油厂又将进行检修，供应压力可能进一步加剧。

“我们现在如履薄冰，对此我非常担忧。”

比罗尔承诺，国际能源署（IEA）成员国在有必要时，“将毫不犹豫地探讨进一步释放储备石油的选项”。

IEA成员国今年3月承诺释放创纪录的4亿桶原油及石油产品，截至目前约八成已投放市场。比罗尔说，成员国“口袋里”还有16亿桶石油，以备不时之需。

摩根史丹利：炼油设施检修 成品油供应紧张至明年中

摩根史丹利星期二发布的分析报告预测，即使战事对石油运输造成的干扰逐步缓解，全球成品油市场的供应紧张局面仍可能持续至2027年中，主要原因是炼油设施即将迎来规模异常庞大的计划检修。

分析师指出，到明年第二季，全球炼油厂因计划检修而暂停生产的炼油产能预计将达到每日340万桶，相当于平常水平的2.5倍，也比中东和俄罗斯炼油设施目前的减产规模更高。

报告解释，不少炼油厂此前为了把握丰厚的炼油利润而推迟检修，但维修工作终究无法无限期延后。分析师也预计，到2027年第二季，炼油产量不太可能出现明显回升。

高盛：中东战争导致运油成本一年升至约七倍

高盛集团最新分析报告指出，中东战争导致全球原油海运费在过去一年急剧攀升，平均运费已从每桶约3美元升至20美元以上，约为一年前的七倍。

报告指出，运费增加的因素包括霍尔木兹海峡的战争风险溢价，以及燃油成本上涨和船对船转运石油造成的额外成本。其中，海峡的战争风险溢价约为每桶7美元；燃油成本上涨和船对船转运则分别推高约4美元。

高盛目前仍预测，布伦特原油价格将在今年底回落至每桶90美元。不过，报告提醒：“运费持续居高不下，加上船只遇袭风险加剧、石油基础设施受损，以及地缘政治风险溢价更难消退等因素，都可能给我们的布伦特原油预测带来一定的上行风险。”

Trump weighs moving White House press corps out of building

October 21, 2026 / 10:22 AM EDT / CBS News

By

President Trump has discussed the possibility of moving the White House press corps to another building, according to two people close to the president — a move that could escalate Mr. Trump’s clashes with news organizations over coverage and access.

Outside allies of the president have pushed the idea in recent weeks, including former Trump strategist Steve Bannon, one source told CBS News.

No final decisions have been made, according to both sources.

The discussions were first reported by The New York Times.

White House communications director Steven Cheung said in a statement: “America is rightly distrustful of the fake news media because they fabricate stories based off lies and sources who are not even privy to any type of information. … All options remain on the table, and we will make an announcement when appropriate.”

Reporters have had dedicated workspaces in the White House building for more than a century. The current press briefing room was constructed during the Nixon administration, replacing a swimming pool that dated back to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s presidency.

But late last month, Mr. Trump posted a before-and-after image to Truth Social that suggested the briefing room could be turned back into a swimming pool.

Ahead of Mr. Trump’s first term, administration officials floated the idea of moving the press corps out of the building, framing it as a bid to broaden access by using a roomier part of the White House complex rather than the small, cramped spaces in the West Wing. Incoming chief of staff Reince Priebus told NBC News the administration had discussed holding news conferences in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, which is adjacent to the West Wing.

Mr. Trump ultimately did not follow through with the plans, telling Fox News two days before his 2017 inauguration: “The press went crazy, so I said, ‘Let’s not move it.’”

The idea has appeared to reemerge after more than a year of disputes between the Trump administration and journalists over access to the White House.

Last month, Mr. Trump attempted to ban CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House complex, accusing them of unfair coverage. Journalists from all three outlets were briefly unable to access the building, but a federal judge reinstated their press credentials, finding the ban likely violated the First Amendment and the news outlets’ right to due process.

The Trump administration has continued to periodically block CNN from participating in the television press pool, a group of five networks that cover the president’s travel and events on a rotating basis and provide video to other news organizations.

(CNN and CBS News are both part of Skydance, the parent company formed by the merger of Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery.)

More than a year ago, the White House prevented the Associated Press from accessing the Oval Office and some other spaces because the wire service declined to refer to the Gulf of Mexico by Mr. Trump’s preferred term, the Gulf of America.

The Pentagon has also clamped down on press access. Last year, the military required reporters to sign onto a set of restrictions — including a promise not to “solicit” sensitive information — in order to maintain daily access to the Pentagon. Most news organizations declined to sign the new rules and vacated the building.

After a judge struck down the Pentagon’s press restrictions earlier this year, the military announced it would stop allowing reporters to enter the building unescorted altogether.

Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said a “new and improved press workspace will be established in an annex facility outside the Pentagon, but still on Pentagon grounds.”

The Odds: The Democrats’ Secret Advantage

2026-10-21 9:53 AM EDT / CNN

By Ainsley Ehlers, CNN

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The Odds: The Democrats’ Secret Advantage

CNN News Central’s John Berman and Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten look at President Trump’s declining approval among 2024 non-voters, which has created a massive congressional polling advantage for Democrats. They break down how this voting group is shifting the national landscape, and examine why prediction markets have Democratic candidate James Talarico winning the Texas Senate race.

4:07 • Source: CNN

俄罗斯原则上同意11月重启俄乌美三方和谈

2026-10-21 22:41:14 / 联合早报

克里姆林宫外交政策助理乌沙科夫（右二）星期三（10月21日）说，俄罗斯总统普京（左）当天在圣彼得堡与美国特使威特科夫（右一）会谈近三小时，表明俄方原则上愿意下个月重启旨在结束俄乌战争的谈判。 （法新社）

俄罗斯总统普京原则上同意11月恢复与乌克兰及美国的三方和平谈判，重点讨论俄乌冲突结束后的安全保障安排。

路透社报道，克里姆林宫外交政策助理乌沙科夫星期三（10月21日）说，普京当天在圣彼得堡与美国特使威特科夫会谈近三小时，表明俄方原则上愿意下个月重启旨在结束俄乌战争的谈判。这将是三方自今年2月以来首次恢复和谈。

乌沙科夫指出，新一轮谈判应聚焦“在冲突结束后，为俄罗斯和乌克兰建立安全体系”。

他透露，威特科夫向普京汇报了前一天在挪威奥斯陆与乌克兰总统泽连斯基、挪威首相及芬兰总统会谈的情况。

乌沙科夫说，威特科夫提到乌克兰及欧洲国家在和平谈判立场上出现一些新思路和新观点，但俄方认为，这些建议对解决乌克兰危机的实际帮助有限。

除俄乌和平谈判外，普京与威特科夫也讨论落实俄罗斯与美国总统特朗普10月9日达成的关于向美国及全球市场供应俄罗斯柴油的协议一事。

双方还就伊朗危机交换意见。

乌沙科夫引述普京说，解决伊朗问题的外交潜力远未耗尽，各方仍有可能、也有必要与德黑兰达成协议。“俄罗斯重申，愿继续为寻求伊朗问题的政治和外交解决方案提供便利。”

袭船事件从霍尔木兹海峡蔓延至伊拉克附近海域

2026年10月21日 23:35 / 联合早报

英国海上贸易行动办公室星期三说，伊拉克附近海域和阿曼附近海域分别发生油轮遇袭事件。近期，袭船事件从霍尔木兹海峡蔓延至伊拉克附近海域。

新华社报道，英国海上贸易行动办公室星期三（10月21日）通报说，协调世界时星期二（20日）傍晚6时30分（新加坡时间21日凌晨2时30分），一艘油轮在伊拉克南部法奥东南方向30海里（约56公里）处遭不明发射物击中。

船长报告船员安全，暂未报告船舶受损或环境影响。

法奥位于波斯湾西北端。其附近海域是船舶进出伊拉克南部港口和海上石油出口设施的重要通道，与霍尔木兹海峡相距较远。

另据通报，协调世界时星期三凌晨1时45分（新加坡时间早上9时45分），一艘油轮在阿曼布哈以西11海里（约20公里）处遭不明发射物击中并起火。当地有关部门报告说，火势已被扑灭，油轮目前处于锚泊状态，所有船员安全，暂未报告环境影响。

布哈位于阿曼穆桑代姆半岛西侧，邻近霍尔木兹海峡西部入口。

英国海上贸易行动办公室说，有关部门正在调查上述事件，提醒过往船舶谨慎航行，及时报告可疑活动。两份通报均未披露遇袭油轮名称及袭击实施方。

此前，袭船事件主要发生在霍尔木兹海峡内，近期则蔓延至海峡以外的沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋等国附近海域。

厄尔尼诺今年底或达空前强度 全球5000万人恐挨饿

2026年10月21日 22:22 / 联合早报

联合国主管人道主义事务的副秘书长兼紧急救济协调员弗莱彻星期三（10月21日）警告，本轮厄尔尼诺可能带来严重的人道主义后果，呼吁各国立即加强防灾准备。 （法新社）

世界气象组织警告，厄尔尼诺现象可能在今年底达到前所未有的强度，导致太平洋部分海域温度创纪录上升，并在全球多地引发严重干旱、洪灾及极端高温。联合国官员形容，这次厄尔尼诺犹如一颗横扫全球的“破坏球”，可能使约5000万人面临更严重的饥饿风险。

路透社报道，世界气象组织（World Meteorological Organization，简称WMO）星期三（10月21日）发布最新季节展望，预测本轮厄尔尼诺将发展成极强事件；今年11月至明年1月期间，太平洋中部海域温度可能比正常水平高约3.8摄氏度，并在12月左右达到峰值。

世界气象组织秘书长绍罗（Celeste Saulo）说，过去有记录的强烈厄尔尼诺事件，太平洋相关海域温度升幅约为3摄氏度，已对全球造成重大影响。

她说：“我们的记录中从未出现3.8摄氏度的升幅。这已超出过去的纪录范围。”

厄尔尼诺通常会推高全球气温，并扰乱大范围地区的降雨模式，导致部分地区干旱，另一些地区则出现暴雨。厄尔尼诺本身并非由气候变化造成，但全球暖化可能加剧其强度。

世界气象组织指出，非洲南部从11月起面临更高的洪灾风险；东南亚则可能因天气更炎热、降雨不足，影响农业生产及水资源供应。拉丁美洲部分地区预计降雨增加。

这些极端天气也可能进一步加重住房、供水、环境卫生及医疗服务的压力。

联合国主管人道主义事务的副秘书长兼紧急救济协调员弗莱彻（Tom Fletcher）警告，本轮厄尔尼诺可能带来严重的人道主义后果，呼吁各国立即加强防灾准备。

他说：“这次厄尔尼诺是个庞然大物，就像一颗破坏球，将以极端高温、干旱和洪水横扫拉丁美洲、东非和南部非洲、亚洲及太平洋地区。”

弗莱彻估计，全球约5000万人可能因此面临更严重的饥饿问题。

厄尔尼诺今年底或达空前强度 全球5000万人恐挨饿

2026年10月21日 22:22 / 联合早报

联合国主管人道主义事务的副秘书长兼紧急救济协调员弗莱彻星期三（10月21日）警告，本轮厄尔尼诺可能带来严重的人道主义后果，呼吁各国立即加强防灾准备。 （法新社）

世界气象组织警告，厄尔尼诺现象可能在今年底达到前所未有的强度，导致太平洋部分海域温度创纪录上升，并在全球多地引发严重干旱、洪灾及极端高温。联合国官员形容，这次厄尔尼诺犹如一颗横扫全球的“破坏球”，可能使约5000万人面临更严重的饥饿风险。

路透社报道，世界气象组织（World Meteorological Organization，简称WMO）星期三（10月21日）发布最新季节展望，预测本轮厄尔尼诺将发展成极强事件；今年11月至明年1月期间，太平洋中部海域温度可能比正常水平高约3.8摄氏度，并在12月左右达到峰值。

世界气象组织秘书长绍罗（Celeste Saulo）说，过去有记录的强烈厄尔尼诺事件，太平洋相关海域温度升幅约为3摄氏度，已对全球造成重大影响。

她说：“我们的记录中从未出现3.8摄氏度的升幅。这已超出过去的纪录范围。”

厄尔尼诺通常会推高全球气温，并扰乱大范围地区的降雨模式，导致部分地区干旱，另一些地区则出现暴雨。厄尔尼诺本身并非由气候变化造成，但全球暖化可能加剧其强度。

世界气象组织指出，非洲南部从11月起面临更高的洪灾风险；东南亚则可能因天气更炎热、降雨不足，影响农业生产及水资源供应。拉丁美洲部分地区预计降雨增加。

这些极端天气也可能进一步加重住房、供水、环境卫生及医疗服务的压力。

联合国主管人道主义事务的副秘书长兼紧急救济协调员弗莱彻（Tom Fletcher）警告，本轮厄尔尼诺可能带来严重的人道主义后果，呼吁各国立即加强防灾准备。

他说：“这次厄尔尼诺是个庞然大物，就像一颗破坏球，将以极端高温、干旱和洪水横扫拉丁美洲、东非和南部非洲、亚洲及太平洋地区。”

弗莱彻估计，全球约5000万人可能因此面临更严重的饥饿问题。

“Embarrassing and outrageous”: Witkoff faces backlash for calling Putin a “humanitarian”

Updated on: October 21, 2026 / 10:57 AM EDT / CBS News

U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff is facing immediate backlash for praising Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “humanitarian” after he released 74-year-old Stephen Hubbard, an American who had been imprisoned in Russia for four years and who had been determined to be wrongfully detained.

“You talk so much about my president, President Trump, being a humanitarian,” Witkoff told Putin Wednesday in response to Hubbard’s release. “You are a humanitarian also, sir, and I salute that, I commend you, and I thank you again.”

Witkoff made the comment in St. Petersburg during a visit with the Russian president that was aimed at moving toward a resolution of the Ukraine war that Putin started four and a half years ago. Over the past month, Russia has been intensifying its strikes against civilian and energy infrastructure to try to cripple the power grid before the brutal Ukrainian winter.

Witkoff’s “humanitarian” comment sparked immediate backlash from Republicans who have openly criticized the president and his administration.

“WTF, Steve?” said North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis. “Look up the definition of ‘humanitarian.’ What an embarrassing and outrageous thing to say. You should go back to Ukraine and ask the families of the children Putin has kidnapped and murdered whether they agree your friend Putin is a ‘humanitarian.’”

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas responded to a video of Witkoff’s comments: “No. Putin is a stone cold killer,” he wrote on X.

“Another embarrassment,” said Republican Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, who has been critical of the Trump administration’s handling of Russia and Ukraine.

Witkoff’s praise of Putin also comes as Mr. Trump made the surprise move last week to waive new U.S. sanctions on Russia two days before they were supposed to go into effect, defying Congress and his late friend, Sen. Lindsey Graham. The waivers came one week after Mr. Trump had eased sanctions on Russian diesel and announced a deal with Putin to import diesel to the U.S. market.

blob:https://www.cbsnews.com/964a869c-eaea-4c70-b392-cbf04e48d483

Mr. Trump has expressed increasing frustration with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and on Tuesday, said “Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine. They haven’t been doing much.”

George W. Bush’s brother Neil Bush says he voted for James Talarico in Texas Senate race

October 21, 2026 / 11:02 AM EDT / CBS News

By Caroline Linton, Fin Daniel Gómez

Neil Bush, the brother of former President George W. Bush and son of former President George H.W. Bush, said Tuesday that he voted for Democrat James Talarico in the Texas Senate race while criticizing President Trump and “those who have enabled him” for causing “enormous damage to the Republican Party.”

“My vote was motivated by two things: deep concern about Ken Paxton’s record and genuine admiration for the character and principles I see in James Talarico,” Bush wrote in a Facebook post.

Talarico is currently facing Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in one of the country’s most closely contested Senate races. Early voting started Monday.

The Bush name is nearly synonymous with the rise of the Republican Party in Texas. Democrats dominated Texas politics for much of the 20th century, and George W. Bush’s defeat of Democratic Gov. Ann Richards in 1994 helped cement the GOP’s takeover. Within a decade, Republicans swept every statewide office, redrew the U.S. House map to enhance their advantage and took the majority in both houses of the state Legislature.

Neil Bush and Presidents George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush at Reliant Stadium on Nov. 17, 2013, in Houston, Texas. Bob Levey / Getty Images

George P. Bush, the son of Jeb Bush and nephew of Neil and George W. Bush, unsuccessfully challenged Paxton in a primary for attorney general in 2022.

In his post, Neil Bush wrote that he is “deeply troubled by Paxton’s conduct as Texas Attorney General, particularly his decision to challenge the results of the 2020 presidential election in other states in an effort to help Donald Trump remain in power.”

Most members of the Bush family have generally avoided criticizing the sitting president since George W. Bush left office in 2009.

Neil Bush noted that he has been a “Republican for most of my life, and I still believe deeply in many traditional Republican principles.”

“But character matters more than party affiliation,” he wrote. “Our democracy depends on leaders who respect our institutions, tell the truth, accept accountability, and seek to unite rather than divide.”

One of the more controversial candidates on the ballot this cycle, Paxton was indicted on securities fraud charges in 2015, which were later settled as part of a diversion agreement. He was impeached in 2023 by the GOP-controlled Texas House on separate accusations of bribery and abuse of office. He was acquitted in the state Senate trial.

Paxton toppled incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a bitter GOP primary earlier this year after receiving Mr. Trump’s endorsement. The president has continued to vigorously back Paxton throughout the general election, making several trips to Texas to campaign for him.

Although Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, Democrats are hopeful their fortunes will change this year. Talarico has had a narrow lead in most polls, including a recent CBS News poll. CBS News’ Battleground Tracker rates the race as a toss-up.

Neil Bush said in his post that his “vote today was about much more than opposition to Ken Paxton.”

“I’ve never met James Talarico, but I have been enormously impressed by the way he approaches complicated and controversial issues,” Bush wrote. “He speaks with respect, seeks common ground, and seems genuinely interested in bringing people together rather than driving them apart.”

Bush praised Talarico, who is a seminarian, for his faith, and added that he sees “in him the qualities I admire most in public servants: integrity, civility, humility, and a willingness to listen to those with whom he disagrees.”

俄罗斯原则上同意11月重启俄乌美三方和谈

2026-10-21 22:41 / 联合早报

克里姆林宫外交政策助理乌沙科夫（右二）星期三（10月21日）说，俄罗斯总统普京（左）当天在圣彼得堡与美国特使威特科夫（右一）会谈近三小时，表明俄方原则上愿意下个月重启旨在结束俄乌战争的谈判。 （法新社）

俄罗斯总统普京原则上同意11月恢复与乌克兰及美国的三方和平谈判，重点讨论俄乌冲突结束后的安全保障安排。

路透社报道，克里姆林宫外交政策助理乌沙科夫星期三（10月21日）说，普京当天在圣彼得堡与美国特使威特科夫会谈近三小时，表明俄方原则上愿意下个月重启旨在结束俄乌战争的谈判。这将是三方自今年2月以来首次恢复和谈。

乌沙科夫指出，新一轮谈判应聚焦“在冲突结束后，为俄罗斯和乌克兰建立安全体系”。

他透露，威特科夫向普京汇报了前一天在挪威奥斯陆与乌克兰总统泽连斯基、挪威首相及芬兰总统会谈的情况。

乌沙科夫说，威特科夫提到乌克兰及欧洲国家在和平谈判立场上出现一些新思路和新观点，但俄方认为，这些建议对解决乌克兰危机的实际帮助有限。

除俄乌和平谈判外，普京与威特科夫也讨论落实俄罗斯与美国总统特朗普10月9日达成的关于向美国及全球市场供应俄罗斯柴油的协议一事。

双方还就伊朗危机交换意见。

乌沙科夫引述普京说，解决伊朗问题的外交潜力远未耗尽，各方仍有可能、也有必要与德黑兰达成协议。“俄罗斯重申，愿继续为寻求伊朗问题的政治和外交解决方案提供便利。”