2026-06-17T10:03:12.861Z / https://www.reuters.com/business/oil-roundtrips-ai-booms-us-consumers-spend-economists-fed-outlooks-hit-extremes-2026-06-17/
2026年4月16日，美国华盛顿的美联储大楼正在施工中。路透社/凯莉·库珀/档案照片 购买授权，打开新标签页
- 内容摘要
- 美联储本周预计将维持利率在3.5%至3.75%区间不变
- 投资者预计今年年底前仅会加息一次，幅度为25个基点
- 经济学家的预测区间从未来数月三次降息到三次加息不等
华盛顿6月17日（路透社）——2026年下半年，美国消费者是否会最终承压，令经济陷入困境？还是说，不断攀升的通胀、强劲的投资与就业形势，会迫使美联储像新冠疫情期间那样加息，以抑制过热的经济增长？
无论你持哪种观点，都有一位训练有素的经济学家会为数十亿美元的资本配置提供支持该观点的建议，尤其是在当前这种前景因多重因素变得模糊不清的时刻：动荡的地缘政治、看似基础狭窄但持续超出预期的美国经济增长，以及可能反映出经济正处于深刻变革临界点或是又一轮泡沫之中的金融市场。
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Natixis CIB Americas美国首席经济学家克里斯·霍奇表示，美联储的下一步动作将是降息。通胀预期已被锚定，实际工资增长为负。随着消费者疲软和实际工资下降的影响开始显现，未来数月内将有两次25个基点的降息。“在通胀由供给因素驱动的环境中，他们还会想要加息吗？”
事实上，自美伊达成重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的协议以来，全球基准油价已暴跌至每桶80美元以下，目前仅比美国支持的轰炸导致伊朗关闭这条战略水道之前的水平高出不到10%。花旗集团的经济学家甚至认为美联储可能会更鸽派，并预计美联储将在9月、10月和12月的会议上连续降息。
相比之下，保德信金融集团首席经济学家罗伯特·索金则认为未来会有三次加息。他认为，美国经济“继续以高于趋势的增速运行，通胀高于目标，而如今劳动力市场也在回暖”——在今年开局放缓后，就业增速已回到疫情前几年的水平。
专业观点出现分歧或许可以理解，因为目前有诸多因素正在发挥作用。以下只是部分悬而未决的问题：仍处于法院质疑中的进口税政策尚未稳定，而唐纳德·特朗普总统仍在寻求新的征税方式；油价在美伊冲突期间飙升逾70%，如今却大幅下跌；人工智能投资热潮与工人在经济增长中所占份额下降之间存在紧张关系。与此同时，新任美联储主席凯文·沃什尚未首次就经济形势发表看法。
沃什主持的首次美联储政策会议将于周三结束。预计利率将维持在当前3.50%至3.75%的区间不变，但结合美联储政策制定者发布的新一批经济预测，以及沃什的首次新闻发布会，市场将寻找线索，判断美联储是认为即将迎来新的反通胀时代，还是认为高通胀风险上升，需要提高借贷成本。
市场普遍预计，新的经济预测将显示美联储今年维持利率不变，但越来越多人认为可能需要加息。投资者预计今年年底前仅会加息一次，幅度为25个基点。
鉴于业内和央行内部的观点存在分歧，美联储可能比以往更有动力尽量少透露未来政策走向。
杰富瑞首席经济学家托马斯·西蒙斯写道：“美联储有19名政策制定者，可以毫不夸张地说，对于伊朗冲突的风险平衡、对增长和通胀前景的影响，以及适当的政策应对，他们有19种不同的看法。除了对经济前景的巨大不确定性之外，强劲的劳动力市场基本面，以及高能源价格未向核心通胀传导，都给联邦公开市场委员会留出了维持观望态度的空间。”
霍华德·施奈德报道；丹·伯恩斯与安德里亚·里奇编辑
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本文作者负责报道美国联邦储备委员会、货币政策与经济，毕业于马里兰大学和约翰斯·霍普金斯大学，曾担任驻外记者、经济记者，以及《华盛顿邮报》地方编辑部工作人员。
As oil roundtrips, AI booms, and US consumers spend, economists’ Fed outlooks hit the extremes
2026-06-17T10:03:12.861Z / https://www.reuters.com/business/oil-roundtrips-ai-booms-us-consumers-spend-economists-fed-outlooks-hit-extremes-2026-06-17/
The Federal Reserve building undergoes construction in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 16, 2026. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
- Summary
- The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% this week
- Investors expect just one quarter-point rate increase by year-end
- Economists’ forecasts range from three cuts to three hikes in coming months
WASHINGTON, June 17 (Reuters) – Is the second half of 2026 when the U.S. consumer finally cracks and leaves the economy gasping for breath, or will rising inflation and strong investment and hiring force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates to tame surging growth similar to what happened during the COVID-19 pandemic?
Pick a view and there is a highly trained economist helping advise billions of dollars in capital who shares it, particularly now when the outlook is muddied by volatile geopolitics, U.S. growth that seems narrowly based but continues beating expectations, and financial markets that may reflect an economy on the cusp of a profound transformation or yet another bubble.
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For Fed rate policy “the next move will be lower. (Inflation) expectations are anchored, real wage gains are negative,” said Chris Hodge, head U.S. economist at Natixis CIB Americas, with two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts in coming months as consumer weakness and the impact of falling inflation-adjusted wages starts to be felt. “Are they going to want to hike in an environment when inflation is driven by supply considerations?”
Indeed, since the announcement of a U.S.-Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz, global benchmark oil prices have plummeted to below $80 a barrel and are now barely 10% above where they were before the start of U.S.-backed bombing led Iran to shut the strategic waterway. Citi economists see even more potential for dovishness, and expect sequential rate cuts at Fed meetings in September, October and December.
At PGIM, by contrast, Chief Economist Robert Sockin sees three rate hikes coming in an economy that “continues to power along with above-trend growth, above-target inflation, and now a warming labor market” that after a slow start of the year is producing jobs at a pace more comparable to the years before the pandemic.
The gap in professional views is perhaps understandable given all that is in play right now. Here’s just some of what’s up in the air: A still-unsettled regime of import taxes under court challenge even as President Donald Trump seeks new ways to impose them; oil prices that soared more than 70% during the U.S.-Iran hostilities but are now plunging; and tension between the artificial intelligence investment boom and the falling share of economic growth going to workers. Meanwhile, new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is still to provide his first view of the landscape.
The first meeting chaired by Warsh concludes on Wednesday. Interest rates are expected to remain on hold in the current 3.50%-to-3.75% range, but between a new set of economic projections from Fed policymakers and Warsh’s debut press conference, the hunt will be on for signs of whether the Fed sees the dawn of a new disinflationary era ahead or increased risks that high inflation will require higher borrowing costs.
The broad expectation is the new projections will show the Fed remaining on hold this year, though with a growing sense that a rate increase may be needed. Investors expect just a single quarter-point rate increase by the end of the year.
Given the divergence of views in the profession and at the central bank itself, there may be more incentive than usual to say as little about the future as possible.
“There are 19 Fed policymakers, and it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that they have 19 different views on the balance of risks regarding the conflict in Iran, the impact on the outlook for growth and inflation, and the appropriate policy response,” wrote Thomas Simons, chief economist with Jefferies. “On top of great uncertainty about the outlook, solid labor market fundamentals and a lack of bleed-through of high energy prices to core inflation gives the FOMC breathing room to maintain their wait-and-see approach.”
Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea Ricci
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Covers the U.S. Federal Reserve, monetary policy and the economy, a graduate of the University of Maryland and Johns Hopkins University with previous experience as a foreign correspondent, economics reporter and on the local staff of the Washington Post.
