2026-06-15T18:59:26.371Z / 路透社
华盛顿6月15日电（路透社）——特朗普政府与伊朗领导层周日达成协议，结束双方战事并重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，这一消息为全球市场带来了显著提振。
尽管该协议为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提供了摆脱一场始终不受美国民众欢迎的冲突的机会，但同时也让他面临来自本党的批评、盟友的质疑，以及协议能否维持的诸多疑问。
共和党内部已出现批评声浪
截至周一，共和党内部分伊朗“鹰派”人士已开始抨击该协议，称其为一场战术灾难。
保守派意见领袖埃里克·埃里克森在X平台上写道：“特朗普已向伊朗投降。”
曾支持开战的特朗普盟友、美国参议员林赛·格雷厄姆周日在X平台发帖称，他“有些担忧”伊朗对初步协议的描述与白宫的表述存在出入。
作为总统阵营中鹰派色彩最弱的助手之一，副总统JD·万斯对早期批评作出回应。他在周一接受美国广播公司采访时淡化了伊朗将立即获得部分冻结资产的可能性，称只有当德黑兰达成与其核计划相关的特定基准后，才能获得这些资金。
多年来，共和党一直在孤立主义者和干预主义者之间存在深刻分歧，而在11月中期选举前爆发的新一轮内部分歧可能会让该党陷入混乱的形象。届时共和党将试图捍卫其在众议院和参议院的微弱多数席位。
对美国消费者而言：为时已晚，杯水车薪
分析师表示，汽油价格有望下跌，但在一段时间内仍将高于战前水平，这意味着随着选举临近，选民仍将面临燃油成本上涨带来的压力。
全球约20%的石油运输需经霍尔木兹海峡，该海峡预计要到周五才能完全开放。即便如此，石油运输恢复至正常水平仍需数周甚至数月时间，而海湾国家增加产能、修复受损基础设施的举措将进一步限制供应。
市场情报机构ICIS的全球石油市场负责人戴维·约尔巴内泽表示：“全面恢复冲突前的通航量，现实来看要到2027年才能实现。”
这种滞后效应可能会削弱特朗普和共和党所能获得的任何政治收益，尤其是在选民仍将注意力集中在生活成本压力上的背景下。截至6月初，约70%的美国人不认可特朗普在应对这些问题上的表现。
与奥巴马时期协议的对比在所难免
特朗普多次公开表态称，美国与伊朗伊斯兰共和国此前达成的协议——即《联合全面行动计划》（JCPOA）——是一场灾难。
特朗普曾多次嘲讽称，民主党总统巴拉克·奥巴马政府曾向德黑兰运送 pallet 装载的现金，此举本是为解决长期存在的金融争端，同时为协议的达成提供便利。
如今特朗普正在谈判一项新的核协议，如果最终协议未能明显优于《联合全面行动计划》，他将面临民主党的攻击。
由于当前协议细节尚未明确，直接对比存在难度。但顾问们透露，特朗普私下里一直担心确保其达成的协议被视为优于奥巴马时期的协议。
持怀疑态度的保守派人士的一个核心担忧是，美国将在多大程度上允许伊朗动用其冻结资产，以及是否会允许。
协议未最终敲定，战火仍有复燃风险
另一个重大风险是：战斗可能再次爆发，导致能源价格在选民将注意力转向中期选举时再次飙升。
以色列领导人私下里怒不可遏，认为在以色列和华盛顿即将迫使伊朗屈服之际，这项初步协议是一种妥协。德黑兰的一些强硬派人士也对此不满，认为当地领导人本应坚持更久。
周日，以色列轰炸了黎巴嫩南部，这一举动令特朗普感到不满，即便只是推迟了数小时，也似乎延缓了协议的达成。周一，以色列在黎巴嫩的另一轮袭击造成一人死亡，表明冲突仍在持续。
盟友关系紧张
这场战争及其解决方案以各种方式考验了华盛顿的盟友关系。
特拉维夫附近巴伊兰大学的政治学家乔纳森·林霍尔德表示，以色列官员将很难向本国选民解释这项协议。他补充道，对以色列政府而言，最佳政治场景是与伊朗的谈判迅速破裂，冲突重新爆发。
特朗普与欧洲领导人的关系也跌至新低，总统批评北约国家未能加入美国-以色列的战争行动。特朗普目前正在法国参加年度G7峰会，这些紧张局势可能会在峰会上浮出水面。
本月早些时候，特朗普威胁要轰炸阿曼，理由是阿曼据称计划与伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡建立收费系统，这让阿曼马斯喀特的领导层感到震惊。
在海湾地区，多个盟友曾遭受伊朗无人机和导弹袭击，如今比以往任何时候都更清楚在该地区部署美国安全架构的弊端。
尽管很难就这场冲突的长期地缘政治影响得出明确结论，但美国近几个月来投入了大量外交和政治资本，在某些情况下还疏远了长期盟友。
协议可能破裂
这项临时协议本质上将最棘手的问题推迟到了以后。值得注意的是，截至周一，伊朗核计划的未来走向仍不明确，双方对迄今为止达成的协议内容也各执一词。
德黑兰和华盛顿现在有60天时间达成一项更全面的协议，鉴于两国数十年来在伊朗核计划问题上一直针锋相对，这是一项艰巨的任务。
特朗普曾表示，如果无法达成协议，他可能会恢复军事打击。民调显示，美国民众原本就不支持这场战争，这一举措几乎肯定会令选民感到不满。不过，如果特朗普逆势而为，与伊朗达成一项实质性协议，可能会为共和党带来一场政治胜利。
宾夕法尼亚州共和党战略家查理·杰罗表示：“伊朗信守承诺的记录糟透了，所以问题之一是，这场协议何时会破裂。”
“如果特朗普能通过其他方式维持住协议，我认为这对他和他的政府将非常有利。”
由格拉姆·斯莱特里和内森·莱恩报道；科琳·詹金斯和桑吉夫·米格兰尼编辑
Trump’s Iran accord offers exit from war — and fresh political risks
2026-06-15T18:59:26.371Z / Reuters
WASHINGTON, June 15 (Reuters) – The Trump administration and Iran’s leadership agreed on Sunday to terms to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a development that has delivered significant relief to global markets.
But while the accord is an opportunity for U.S. President Donald Trump to exit a conflict that has proven consistently unpopular with the American public, it also exposes him to criticism from within his party, skepticism from allies and questions over whether the deal will hold.
THE KNIVES COME OUT AMONG REPUBLICANS
By Monday, some Iran “hawks” within the Republican Party were trashing the agreement, describing it as a tactical catastrophe.
“Trump has surrendered to Iran,” conservative influencer Erick Erickson wrote on X.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally who advocated for the war, said in a Sunday X post he was “somewhat concerned” that Iran’s description of the preliminary agreement was different from the White House’s description.
Vice President JD Vance, one of the president’s least hawkish aides, pushed back against early criticisms. In an interview with ABC on Monday, he played down the possibility that Iran will immediately receive some of its frozen assets, saying it would only receive those funds if Tehran reaches certain benchmarks related to its nuclear program.
While Republicans have navigated deep splits between isolationists and interventionists for years, another flare-up before the November midterm elections when Republicans will try to defend narrow majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate could create an image of a party in disarray.
FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS, IT MIGHT BE TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE
Gas prices are expected to fall but will remain above pre-war levels for some time, analysts say, meaning voters are still likely to face pain at the pump as the elections approach.
The strait, through which about 20% of the world’s oil flows, is not scheduled to fully open until Friday. Even then, it will take weeks or even months for oil flows to return to normal levels, with supply further constrained as Gulf nations ramp up production and repair damaged infrastructure.
“Full pre-conflict traffic volume is realistically a 2027 story,” said David Jorbenaze, global oil market leader at ICIS, a market intelligence provider.
That lag could blunt any political benefit for Trump and Republicans, particularly as voters remain focused on cost-of-living pressures. As of early June, some 70% of Americans disapproved of how Trump was handling those concerns.
COMPARISONS WITH OBAMA’S DEAL ARE INEVITABLE
One of Trump’s most oft-stated positions with respect to Iran is that the U.S.’s last deal with the Islamic Republic, known as the JCPOA, was a disaster.
Trump has frequently noted with derision that the administration of Democratic President Barack Obama sent pallets of cash to Tehran, a move that was intended to settle a long-running financial dispute, while facilitating the accord.
Now that Trump is negotiating a nuclear deal, he risks opening himself up to Democratic attacks if a final deal is not clearly better than the JCPOA.
With details of the current agreement unclear, direct comparison is difficult. But Trump has been privately concerned about making sure his deal is seen as better than Obama’s, advisers have said.
A key concern among skeptical conservatives is whether — and to what extent — the U.S. will allow Iran access to its frozen assets.
IT ISN’T OVER UNTIL IT’S OVER
Another significant risk: The fighting could flare again, causing energy prices to shoot back up just as voters turn their attention to the midterms.
Israeli leaders are privately fuming, seeing the initial agreement as a form of capitulation right when Israel and Washington had Tehran on the ropes. Some hardliners in Tehran are also unhappy, believing leaders there should have held out longer.
On Sunday, Israel bombed southern Lebanon, a move that upset Trump and appeared to delay the agreement, if only by a few hours. On Monday, Israel killed one person in another strike in Lebanon, illustrating that the conflict remains active.
STRAINED ALLIANCES
The war – and its resolution – have tested Washington’s alliances in various ways.
Israeli officials will struggle to sell the deal to their own voters, said Jonathan Rynhold, a political scientist at Bar-Ilan University, near Tel Aviv. He added that the best-case political scenario for the Israeli government is that talks with Iran quickly collapse and conflict resumes.
Relations between Trump and European leaders have also fallen to a new low, with the president criticising NATO countries for failing to join the U.S.-Israeli war effort. Trump is currently in France for the annual G7 summit, where those tensions could come to the fore.
Leaders in Muscat were shocked earlier this month when Trump threatened to bomb Oman for allegedly scheming to set up a toll system with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.
In the Gulf, several allies – having been hit by Iranian drone and missile strikes – are now more aware than ever of the downsides of hosting U.S. security architecture in the region.
While it is difficult to draw firm conclusions about the long-term geopolitical effects of the conflict, the U.S. has spent significant diplomatic and political capital in recent months and, in some cases, upset longtime allies.
THE DEAL COULD FALL APART
The interim deal essentially pushed the most difficult issues down the road. Notably, as of Monday, there was no clarity as to what will happen with Iran’s nuclear program, and both sides have different versions regarding what has been agreed to so far.
Tehran and Washington now have 60 days to reach a more comprehensive deal, a monumental task given that the two countries have been at loggerheads over Tehran’s nuclear program for decades.
Trump has said he may resume attacks if a deal is not reached, a move that would almost certainly upset voters, who never liked the war in the first place, according to public opinion surveys. Still, if Trump defies the odds and seals a substantive agreement with Iran, it could hand Republicans a political win.
The Iranians’ “record of keeping their word is abysmal, so one of the questions is when does this thing blow up,” said Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania-based Republican strategist.
“If Trump, through other means, is able to keep it together, I think it’s going to be very positive for him and his administration.”
Reporting by Gram Slattery and Nathan Layne; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Sanjeev Miglani