2026-08-06T17:41:22.338Z / 路透社
提要
美联储官员开始讨论人工智能对金融稳定构成的风险
- 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯认为人工智能领域不存在泡沫
- 其他美联储官员正担忧金融资本推动人工智能投资的现状
8月6日（路透社）——美联储官员开始审视，推动人工智能产业扩张的狂热投资是否正失去控制，并给金融体系带来风险。
目前，部分就此议题发声的官员呼吁保持警惕，但同时认为，重演20年前住房市场危机、以及此前程度稍轻的互联网泡沫破裂的金融危机，大概率不会发生。不过，投资规模、未经验证技术的不确定回报、复杂融资结构的兴起以及债务使用的增加，已将人工智能金融问题提上了各国央行的议事日程。
“我不认为当前局面属于泡沫状态，”纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯在周五接受路透社采访时表示。
“我们看到的是市场对人工智能这项新技术抱有极高的兴奋度和热情，”威廉姆斯说，“投资者正实时尝试解决一个几乎无解的难题：人工智能最终能带来多大的收益。”而试图解答这些问题将引发市场波动。
威廉姆斯指出，尽管为支持人工智能投资的借贷有所增加，但这些借贷均由高盈利企业主导，“我目前并不太担心杠杆带来的金融稳定风险。”
资产管理公司阿波罗集团首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克在一份研究报告中称，“数据中心建设规模仍不到2005年见顶时住房市场规模的一半，当时住房建设占GDP的比例达到6.6%”，但与此同时，相对于GDP的投资增速，已超过全球金融危机前住房市场的增长速度。
监控时刻
美联储其他官员对人工智能风险的态度不如威廉姆斯乐观。
鉴于该行业的融资模式，“我认为，我们确实有必要开始从宏观层面展开讨论：这个行业是否会演变成另一个‘大而不能倒’的领域？”堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·希德在周二的一场演讲中问道。
他尤其担忧资金流动以及各环节间的关联可能成为风险传导渠道，即问题从某一环节爆发后迅速扩散。
希德问道：“比如说，数据中心向能源供应商、再向其服务社区签订的合同承诺形成的循环链条，其杠杆率是否过高？如果出现一个导火索引发危机，将会发生什么？”
旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利周三表示，“仅从人工智能领域的投资增速和投资规模来看，你完全可以说这‘非常令人担忧’。”
戴利同时指出，缓解这种焦虑的一点在于，目前人工智能领域的诸多承诺仍停留在公告层面，尚未转化为实体项目，从而降低了所谓“搁浅资产”的风险——这类资产在行业洗牌后将难以处置。
尽管如此，戴利表示，为推动增长而增加借贷可能仍是一个隐患。对美联储而言，“关键在于搭建一个监测框架，不是追踪金融危机中已经发生过的情况，而是预判可能出现的、足以颠覆当前局面的风险点。”
迈克尔·S·德比报道
Furious pace of AI investment on some Fed officials’ radar now
2026-08-06T17:41:22.338Z / Reuters
Summary
Fed officials are beginning to talk about AI financial stability risks
- NY Fed’s Williams does not see a bubble in AI
- Others on Fed watching with concern finance driving AI investment
Aug 6 (Reuters) – Federal Reserve officials are beginning to mull whether the frenzied investment driving the buildout of the artificial intelligence sector is getting out of hand and creating risks for the financial sector.
For now, some of the officials who have tackled the subject call for vigilance, dashed with a sense that a financial crisis mirroring what happened 20 years ago with housing, and to a lesser degree, the dot-com shakeout before that, is probably not in the offing. Still, the scale of investment, the uncertain returns for an unproven technology, the rise of tricky financing structures and increased use of debt have moved AI finance onto central bankers’ radar.
“I don’t see this as a bubble kind of situation,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said in an interview with Reuters conducted on Friday.
“What we’re seeing is a very high level of excitement, enthusiasm around new technology, around AI,” Williams said. “Investors are trying in real time to solve an almost intractable problem, and that is how big are the benefits of AI going to prove to be,” and trying to answer these questions will lead to volatility.
Williams said that while there’s been an increase in borrowing to support the AI investment it is being managed by companies with high earnings, noting, “I’m not as worried about the financial stability from the leverage right now.”
Torsten Slok, chief economist at money manager Apollo, said in a research note, “The data-center buildout is still less than half the size of the housing boom, which peaked at 6.6% of GDP in 2005,” while at the same time the investment pace relative to GDP has been growing faster than housing did in the run up to the global financial crisis.
MONITORING TIME
Others on the Fed appear less sanguine about AI risk relative to Williams.
Given how the industry is financing itself “I would argue that, that there’s some signs that we have to really start to talk about that on a macro level, is this industry becoming another too big to fail?” asked Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid in a speech on Tuesday.
In particular, he’s worried about the flow of financing and how the linkages could be a vector where a problem starts at one stage and then propagates.
Schmid asked, “Does the does the circular motion of a commitment, let’s say a contractual commitment to a data center to an energy provider … to a community that it serves, is that, is that circle getting too leveraged? And if you get a spark that starts a flame, what happens?”
San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly said on Wednesday, “If you just looked at the growth rate and the amount” of investment in the AI space, you could easily say this is “very worrisome.”
Offsetting that anxiety, Daly noted that it’s key that many commitments being made in the AI space are currently announcements that haven’t turned into physical realities, reducing the risk of so-called “stranded assets” that are hard to deal with after a shakeout.
That said, the increased rise of borrowing to fuel growth might be an issue, Daly said. For the Fed, “It’s really about putting a dashboard together, not of the things that happened in the financial crisis, but what could go wrong that would tip this over.”
Reporting by Michael S. Derby;