2026-09-02T16:14:35.378Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/02/politics/prediction-markets-supreme-court-new-jersey
新泽西州于周三向最高法院提起诉讼，要求关停该州境内的预测市场，这或将成为一起标志性案件，大法官们将裁定这个广受欢迎却颇具争议的行业能否以现有形态存续。
这是全国范围内关于预测网站合法性的法律争端首次提交最高法院，此前已有一系列针对相关公司的不利裁决，包括一家联邦上诉法院的判决。
最高法院可能会在今年晚些时候的秋季考虑是否受理此案。若受理，法院大概率会在明年夏季初作出判决。
以卡尔希（Kalshi）和多元市场（Polymarket）为代表的预测网站允许用户就体育赛事、选举、娱乐、天气等现实事件下注。它们被归类为金融衍生品市场而非赌博平台，受美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的联邦监管。
然而，由两党组成的44个州联盟辩称，这些平台本质上就是赌博。他们认为预测公司运营的是无牌照体育博彩，非法规避了州级博彩监管规定——这些规定本可保护消费者并为各州带来数十亿美元的税收收入。
正因如此，新泽西州总检察长去年曾试图关停卡尔希在该州的体育赛事下注业务。卡尔希随即提起诉讼，一名联邦地区法官裁定新泽西州不得对卡尔希采取监管行动。今年4月，位于费城的美国第三巡回上诉法院以2比1的投票结果维持了这一判决。
“我们呼吁最高法院解决这一争议，并明确国会并未默认让体育博彩行业不受州法律约束，”民主党籍新泽西州总检察长珍妮弗·达文波特在周三的一份声明中说道。
新泽西州提交诉状后，卡尔希方面表示有信心最终胜诉。
“卡尔希是一个开放的全国性金融交易所，”卡尔希发言人丹尼·莱弗在一份声明中表示，“它不能受50个不同监管机构的管辖。第三巡回法院和新泽西地区法院都支持卡尔希，因为商品期货交易委员会的专属管辖权优先于州级法律。”
博彩业与预测市场的全面法律争端升级
https://www.cnn.com/
博彩业与预测市场的全面法律争端升级
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新泽西州提起上诉不到一周前，另一个州——西部的内华达州在相关案件中取得重大胜利。美国第九巡回上诉法院于周五以3比0的裁决裁定，各州可将预测市场视为体育博彩进行监管，这造成了巡回法院判决分歧。
第三巡回法院此前认定，预测网站与传统体育博彩平台存在法律差异，因为它们提供的是用于交易的“事件合约”，因此应受联邦监管。第九巡回法院则驳回了这一观点，称“卡尔希的体育赛事合约带有体育博彩的典型特征”。
卡尔希是美国最受欢迎的预测网站。但截至目前，已有三个州的监管机构通过法院命令关停了卡尔希的业务，至少是其体育赛事下注业务：内华达州、密歇根州和华盛顿州。
（美国有线电视新闻网与卡尔希存在合作关系，使用其数据报道重大事件，但CNN编辑人员被禁止在预测市场进行交易。）
卡尔希和多元市场目前的周交易量已达数十亿美元，特朗普政府已明确表示希望这些平台蓬勃发展。
由特朗普任命的商品期货交易委员会主席迈克·塞利格一直支持预测市场，并表示其机构拥有监管这些平台的专属管辖权。
该委员会未介入新泽西州的案件，但在内华达州的案件中进行了干预，辩称州级法律无权管辖预测网站。在塞利格的领导下，商品期货交易委员会还起诉了其他几个试图禁止预测市场的州。
该委员会于6月提出了新的联邦规则，将保留该行业的大部分业务，包括大多数体育市场。塞利格的提案拒绝了州级官员、数十名议员、成瘾问题专家以及NCAA和NBA等主要体育联盟提出的更严格监管要求。
这起可能提交最高法院的案件背后，存在着总统唐纳德·特朗普与该行业的财务和家族关联。
总统的社交媒体公司特朗普媒体与科技集团去年宣布将推出名为“真相预测”的自有预测市场，但近几个月来该计划已有所缩减。
总统的长子小唐纳德·特朗普是多元市场的投资者和顾问，同时也是卡尔希的顾问。小特朗普的发言人此前表示，他不会代表这些公司游说联邦官员。
特朗普本人仅在少数场合公开谈论过预测市场。
今年4月，他感叹“不幸的是，整个世界都有点像赌场了”。但在5月，他表示阻止各州监管预测市场“至关重要”，这样这些平台就能在商品期货交易委员会和塞利格提出的新规则下“蓬勃发展”，他称塞利格“干得非常出色”。
First challenge to prediction markets reaches Supreme Court
2026-09-02T16:14:35.378Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/02/politics/prediction-markets-supreme-court-new-jersey
New Jersey on Wednesday asked the Supreme Court to shut down prediction markets in the state, teeing up a potential landmark case where the justices could decide if the highly popular but controversial industry can survive in its current form.
This is the first time the nationwide legal battle over the legality of prediction sites has reached the Supreme Court, and it comes after a string of recent rulings against the companies, including from a federal appeals court.
The high court will likely consider later this fall whether to hear the case. If it does so, then the court would likely hand down a decision by the start of next summer.
Prediction sites like Kalshi and Polymarket let people bet on real-world events like sports, elections, entertainment, the weather and more. They’re structured as financial derivatives markets – not gambling – and are regulated federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
However, a bipartisan coalition of 44 states have argued that these platforms are, in fact, gambling. They believe prediction companies are running unlicensed sportsbooks, unlawfully skirting state gaming regulations that impose consumer protections and bring in billions in state tax revenue.
That’s why New Jersey’s attorney general tried to shut down Kalshi’s sports bets in the state last year. Kalshi sued, and a federal district judge blocked New Jersey from taking regulatory action against Kalshi. The Philadelphia-based 3rd US Circuit Court of Appeals upheld that ruling in a 2-1 decision in April.
“We’re calling on the Supreme Court to resolve this issue and recognize that Congress did not silently make the sports-betting industry immune from state law,” New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport, a Democrat, said in a statement on Wednesday.
After New Jersey’s filing, Kalshi expressed confidence that it would ultimately prevail.
“Kalshi is an open, nationwide financial exchange,” Kalshi spokeswoman Dani Lever said in a statement. “It cannot be regulated by 50 different regulators. Both the Third Circuit and the District of New Jersey sided with Kalshi because the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction preempts state law.”
All-out legal battle intensifies between casino industry and prediction markets
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All-out legal battle intensifies between casino industry and prediction markets
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The New Jersey appeal comes less than one week after another state, Nevada, secured a significant victory in a related case on the other side of the country. The 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 3-0 on Friday that states can regulate prediction markets as sports-betting, creating a circuit split.
The Third Circuit previously found that prediction sites are legally distinct from traditional sportsbooks because they offer “event contracts” for trading, and, thus, must be regulated federally. The Ninth Circuit rejected that view, saying, “Kalshi’s sports event contracts have the hallmarks of sports betting.”
Kalshi is the most popular prediction site in the country. But so far, regulators in three states have secured court orders shutting down Kalshi and, at least, its sports bets: Nevada, Michigan and Washington state.
(CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events, but CNN editorial employees are prohibited from trading on prediction markets.)
Kalshi and Polymarket now see billions of dollars in weekly volume, and the Trump administration has made clear that it wants these sites to flourish.
CFTC chairman Mike Selig, a Trump appointee, has championed prediction markets and has said his agency has exclusive jurisdiction to regulate them.
The agency didn’t intervene in the New Jersey case, but it did in the Nevada case, arguing that prediction sites can’t be touched by state laws. Under Selig, the CFTC has also sued several other states that tried to ban prediction sites.
The CFTC proposed new federal rules in June that would leave most of the industry intact, including most sports markets. Selig’s proposal rebuffed calls for more aggressive regulation from state officials, dozens of lawmakers, addiction experts, and major sports leagues like the NCAA and NBA.
Looming over the potential future Supreme Court action in this case is President Donald Trump’s financial and familial ties to the industry.
The president’s social media company, Trump Media & Technology Group, announced last year that it was launching its own prediction market called Truth Predict, though it has scaled back those plans in recent months.
And the president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., is an investor and adviser to Polymarket, and is an adviser to Kalshi. A spokesman for Trump Jr. previously said he doesn’t lobby federal officials on behalf of the companies.
Trump has only personally spoken out a few times about prediction markets.
In April, he lamented that “the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.” But in May, he said it was “critically important” to stop states from regulating prediction sites, so they could “flourish” under new rules proposed by the CFTC and Selig, who he said was “doing a great job.”
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