亿万富翁大卫·布斯是指数投资的先驱。以下是他给投资者的建议。


2026年8月28日 / 美国东部时间下午1:02 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻

指数投资先驱大卫·布斯给在动荡金融市场中摸索的人们传递了一个简单的信息:保持冷静,坚持投资。

身家数十亿的布斯所创立的维度基金顾问公司管理着1万亿美元资产,他在将于9月1日出版的新书《保持冷静:学会拥抱投资与生活中的不确定性》中拓展了这一建议。这本书兼具回忆录和投资指南性质,解释了为何投资者应努力接受市场固有的不确定性,而非试图战胜市场。


指数投资先驱大卫·布斯在其2026年9月1日出版的新书《保持冷静》中分享了投资与生活策略。维度基金顾问公司 供图

上世纪70年代指数投资出现之前,美国人主要通过两种方式投资:挑选个股(永远伴随着风险),或将资金交给投资组合经理进行“主动管理”的基金,这类基金的管理费通常远高于指数基金。在芝加哥大学,布斯师从未来诺贝尔经济学奖得主尤金·法玛,后者的“有效市场假说”为指数投资铺平了道路。

在书中,布斯回顾了芝加哥大学学者对1926年至1960年纽约证券交易所年度回报率的分析。他们发现,股票年均回报率为9%,而大多数主动型基金经理无法跑赢大盘,扣除费用后尤其如此。

“如果连专家都无法稳定取胜,那就引出了一个更大的问题:你该如何投资?”布斯写道。

这个问题推动了被动投资的发展,这种投资方式旨在以低成本、低交易频率实现广泛的市场分散化投资。

布斯接受了哥伦比亚广播公司新闻的采访,谈及他的新书和给投资者的建议。为控制篇幅和确保表述清晰,采访内容经过了编辑。

你在金融行业打拼了50年,本可以随时写这本书。为何选择现在动笔?

大卫·布斯: 人们似乎比往常更焦虑。我不知道这是不是事实,但当下确实充满了压力,人们对投资的负面情绪很重。希望这本书能让人们更乐观一点,让他们觉得自己更有可能获得良好的投资体验,逐步实现财务目标。

人们的焦虑程度远超实际需要。他们需要学会如何保持冷静,坚持投资。

你在书中谈到了作为投资“门外汉”的力量。能否详细解释一下?

谈到公开市场投资,这里其实全是好消息。回顾过去60年的所有研究,专业人士都无法跑赢市场,无法击败指数。这绝对是好消息。

作为门外汉,你可以获得和业内人士一样的投资体验。这是具有突破性的理念,而且对所有人都适用,因为每个人都可以轻松地以极低成本购买简单的市场投资组合,投资整个大盘。

我写这本书的部分原因,是为了给那些尚未开始投资的人。我想打消他们的借口。尤其是年轻人,你们必须开始投资,让复利的魔力为你服务。

数据长期以来都表明,主动管理型基金往往跑输大盘,但投资者仍心甘情愿将资金交给投资组合经理。为什么会这样?

很大程度上是因为,乍一看这完全违背直觉。但你得问问自己,为什么股票长期表现如此出色。没错,我们现在有很多焦虑。但回到大萧条时期,你觉得现在的焦虑程度比当时更严重吗?还是比大衰退或新冠疫情期间更严重?

焦虑时刻都存在。如果你看看有可靠研究数据的过去100年,股票年均回报率超过10%,无论经历了什么。这是我能想到的最好的例证了。

为什么回报率这么高?简单的答案是,这是你承担风险的回报。但为什么回报如此丰厚?我认为这归根结底在于人类的创造力。当你遭遇不幸时,你不会坐以待毙,你会想办法重回正轨。

这个行业最令人痛心的一点,就是看着人们因焦虑而退出市场。市场不会给你重来的机会。如果你持币观望,错过了那50%的涨幅,那就是你永远无法追回的50%。如果要给书名再加一句话,那就是:保持冷静,坚持投资。

你的副标题承诺分享投资与生活的经验教训。投资能教给我们哪些生活道理?

两者都充满不确定性。如果没有不确定性,你可能就无法在生活中取得进步。而在投资领域,如果没有不确定性,所有投资的回报率都将相同——无风险利率。所以关键不是消除不确定性,而是管理不确定性。

在某种程度上,人们真的很想获得安全感。安全感就是,无论发生什么,我都认为自己能应付过去。你想避免灭顶之灾。如果你单买一只股票,股价可能会跌到零。但股票市场不会归零。

在书中,你谈到了创新的前景。但比尔·盖茨曾预测,人工智能可能会淘汰大量工作岗位,很多年轻人担心自己会被AI取代,永远买不起房。你认为悲观者的想法走错了方向。你会对他们说什么?

首先我要明确一下。我说悲观者的想法走错了方向,是针对股票和债券投资而言的。

回到生活本身,我认为确实存在一些合理的担忧。有很多比我懂技术的科技人士表达了他们的看法,我们无法确定最终结果。我认为你不该把最后一分钱押在自己对AI影响的预测上。

我看到了很多悲观情绪——其中很多也确实事出有因——比如毕业生找工作难的问题。但我有一个根深蒂固的信念,谁也无法动摇:人们都想让自己和家人的生活变得更好。这是人的首要追求,希望他们能找到合乎道德的方式去实现。人生有起有落,但从长远来看,社会是在进步的。

数百万五六十岁的美国人没能为退休攒下多少钱。很多人还说,他们打算工作到去世。对那些觉得自己落后了的人,你有什么想说的?

我们先从401(k)养老金计划参与者说起:不要动用账户贷款。只要你坚持投资,你的状况可能就相当不错。真正的问题是那些没有往账户里存钱的人。我知道,当你要养活一大家子,税后收入所剩无几时,这非常困难。我不相信有什么灵丹妙药。如果我有制胜法宝,一定会分享出来。

所以问题在于,我们如何让更多人赚到更多钱,从而有更多钱可投?这不在我的职责范围内。但如果我掌权,我会致力于更好地教育民众,让他们为即将到来的这个疯狂世界做好更充分的准备。

本文由阿兰·谢特编辑

Billionaire David Booth helped pioneer index investing. Here’s his advice for investors.

August 28, 2026 / 1:02 PM EDT / CBS News

Index investing pioneer David Booth has a simple message for people navigating volatile financial markets: Stay calm and keep investing.

Booth, a billionaire several times over whose Dimensional Fund Advisors manages $1 trillion, expands on that advice in a new book, “Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life,” scheduled for publication on Sept. 1. Part memoir and part investment guide, the book explains why investors should strive to accept the uncertainty inherent in the market rather than trying to outsmart it.

Index investing pioneer David Booth writes about investment and life strategies in his new book, “Stay Calm,” which will be published Sept. 1, 2026. Dimensional Fund Advisors

Until index investing emerged in the 1970s, Americans largely invested by picking individual stocks — a perpetual risk — or by putting their money in a fund “actively” managed by a portfolio manager, which can carry considerably higher fees than index funds. At the University of Chicago, Booth studied under economist Eugene Fama, a future Nobel laureate whose “efficient market hypothesis” helped pave the way for index investing.

In his book, Booth recounts how University of Chicago academics analyzed annual New York Stock Exchange returns from 1926 through 1960. They found that stocks returned an average of 9% a year, while most active managers failed to match the market, particularly after fees.

“If the experts couldn’t reliably win, it begged a larger question. How should you invest?” Booth writes.

That question helped drive the development of passive investing, an approach designed to provide broad market diversification with low fees and limited trading.

Booth spoke with CBS News about his book and his advice for investors. The interview has been edited for length and clarity.

You’ve spent five decades in finance and could have written this book at any time. Why now?

David Booth: People seem to have more anxiety than normal. I don’t know if that’s true or not, but there’s a lot of stress out there, and a lot of negative attitude about investing. Hopefully, people can feel a bit more optimistic and feel like they’re more likely to have a good investment experience and meet their financial goals over time.

People have more anxiety than they really need to have. They need to figure out how to stay calm and stay invested.

You write about the power of being an outsider when it comes to investing. Can you elaborate?

With respect to investing in public markets, there’s really nothing but great news here. If you look at all the research over the last 60 years, it looks like the pros can’t beat the market. They can’t beat an index. That’s got to be good news.

As an outsider, you can have the same investment experience as an insider. That’s path-breaking, and it works for everybody because everybody can buy a simple market portfolio and invest in the whole market at very low cost, very easily.

Part of the reason for writing the book is for those people out there who still haven’t invested. I’m trying to take away the excuse. Particularly if you’re a young person, you’ve got to start investing and get the magic of compounding working for you.

Data has long shown that actively managed funds tend to lag the market, yet investors still willingly hand their money to portfolio managers. Why?

Largely because, at first flush, it’s so counterintuitive. But you have to ask yourself why stocks do so well over the long haul. Yes, we have a lot of anxiety now. But go back to the Great Depression. Do you think there’s more anxiety now than during the Great Depression? Or during the Great Recession, or the pandemic?

There’s always a lot of anxiety. And if you look over the last 100 years, where we have research-quality data, stocks have returned over 10% a year through all of that. That’s about as good a story as I can come up with.

Why are the returns that high? The simple answer is it’s your reward for taking risk. But why is that reward so great? I think it comes down to human ingenuity. When something bad happens to you, you don’t just sit there and take it. You figure out how to get back on track.

One of the heartbreaks in this business is watching people get stressed out and get out of the market. The market doesn’t give you a do-over. If you sit on the sidelines and you miss that 50% gain, that’s 50% you’re never going to get. If I had another sentence to write about the title, it would be: Stay calm and stay invested.

Your subtitle promises lessons for investing and life. What can investing teach you about how to live?

There’s uncertainty in both. If there were no uncertainty, you probably wouldn’t have been able to progress in life. And in investing, if there were no uncertainty, all investments would have the same return — the riskless rate. So it’s not about eliminating uncertainty. It’s about managing uncertainty.

In a way, people really want to feel safe. Feeling safe is the feeling that, regardless of what happens, I think I’m going to be OK. I can handle it. You want to avoid the catastrophes. If you buy an individual stock, the price can go to zero. The stock market is not going to zero.

In your book, you talk about the promise of innovation. But Bill Gates has forecast that AI could eliminate many jobs, and a lot of younger people fear being replaced by AI and never being able to buy a home. You argue the pessimists are on the wrong track. What would you tell them?

First off, let me be clear. When I say the pessimists are on the wrong track, I’m talking about investing in stocks and bonds.

If you go back to life, I think there are some legitimate concerns. There are a lot of tech people who are a lot smarter than I am about technology and have their opinions, and we don’t know for sure. I don’t think you want to bet your last dollar on your ability to forecast what the effects of AI are going to be.

I see a lot of pessimism — and a lot of it well-earned — about people coming out of school, getting jobs. But I do have this fundamental belief that you can’t talk me out of, which is that people want to make their lives better and the lives of their family better. That’s the priority, and hopefully they’ll figure out ethical ways of doing that. There are ups and downs, but over the long haul, there’s progress.

Millions of Americans in their 50s and 60s haven’t managed to put much money away for retirement. Many also say they expect to work until they die. What would you say to people who feel behind?

We’ll start with the 401(k) participant: Don’t borrow against it. As long as you stayed invested, you’re probably in pretty good shape. It’s the people who didn’t fund it. And I know it’s very difficult when you have a big family and there’s not much after-tax money. I don’t think there’s magic out there. If I had a silver bullet, I’d share it.

So the problem is, how do we get more people making more money so they can invest more? That’s not my department. But if I were king, I’d be working on how we can educate people better and make them better prepared for that crazy world ahead of us.

Edited by Alain Sherter

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