2026年8月13日 美国东部时间下午6:00 / 福克斯新闻
共和党候选人在参议院竞选中占据优势，而民主党候选人则在州长竞选中被看好
作者：维多利亚·巴拉拉 福克斯新闻
劳拉·特朗普：这简直像是阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德希望迈克·罗杰斯成为密歇根州下一任参议员
福克斯新闻主持人劳拉·特朗普在《我的观点》节目中批评密歇根州民主党参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德，并讨论了特朗普与民主社会主义美国（DSA）的背书成功率。
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在密歇根州，尽管担忧候选人意识形态立场的民主党选民多于共和党人，但民主党选民对即将到来的选举参与度和热情更高，这使得“狼獾之州”即将上演一场激烈对决。
在激烈的民主党初选后，进步派人士阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德获得了参议院提名，今年秋季将与共和党人迈克·罗杰斯对决，民主党正试图夺回参议院控制权。
根据福克斯新闻对密歇根州登记选民的调查，罗杰斯在竞选中占据优势，支持率为51%，埃尔赛义德为47%，误差处于本次调查的抽样误差范围内。
福克斯新闻民调：新对阵，旧结果：缅因州参议院竞选胶着不变
罗杰斯的优势主要来自共和党内部更紧密的团结。几乎所有共和党人（96%），包括MAGA支持者（99%）和非MAGA共和党人（89%），都支持罗杰斯。
在赢得初选仅一周后，90%的民主党人（91%）和几乎所有民主社会主义美国（DSA）支持者（98%）都支持埃尔赛义德，但这一支持率在非DSA民主党人和无党派人士中降至69%。小型无党派选民群体小幅支持罗杰斯。
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埃尔赛义德的支持者群体包括自由派选民、黑人选民、城市居民和大学学历女性。
罗杰斯最忠诚的群体则是保守派、白人福音派基督徒、农村选民和无大学学历的白人男性。
男性选民以11个百分点的差距支持罗杰斯（埃尔赛义德44% vs. 罗杰斯55%），而女性选民则势均力敌（49% vs. 48%）。
唐纳德·特朗普总统2016年和2024年都赢得了这个“狼獾之州”，每次优势都不到2个百分点，而前总统乔·拜登2020年以近3个百分点的优势获胜。
与2024年密歇根州福克斯新闻选民分析（FNVA）的数据相比，埃尔赛义德在黑人选民、女性和郊区选民中的支持率不及前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯在2024年总统选举中的表现。罗杰斯在30岁以下选民和无党派人士中的支持率同样落后于特朗普2024年的支持率。
双方选民对各自候选人的热情都显而易见。每位候选人的支持者中约有四分之三明确表示今年秋季会坚定支持自己的选择，约三分之二的人称他们的支持主要是为了支持自己的候选人，而非反对对手。
福克斯新闻民调：共和党分歧影响得克萨斯州参议院竞选
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埃尔赛义德在参与度最高的选民中领先，在对选举极度感兴趣的选民中领先11个百分点，在积极性极高的选民中领先7个百分点，在肯定会投票的选民中领先4个百分点（投票可能性为10分制的10分）。
此外，比共和党人更多的民主党人表现出极度感兴趣（高出15个百分点）、有投票积极性（高出11个百分点），并肯定会在今年11月投票（高出7个百分点）。
超过一半的选民担忧埃尔赛义德的政策立场过于极端（54%），同时也担忧罗杰斯与特朗普过从甚密（51%）。
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两党选民都对各自候选人的意识形态定位存在担忧。认为埃尔赛义德过于极端的民主党人数是认为罗杰斯与特朗普关系过密的共和党人数的两倍（30% vs. 14%）。有10个百分点的差距的无党派人士更担忧罗杰斯与特朗普的关联，而非埃尔赛义德的政策立场（58% vs. 48%）。
特朗普在密歇根州的支持率净负面19个百分点（40%正面，59%负面）。两位参议院候选人的支持率也均为负面，埃尔赛义德的净负面为13个百分点，表现比罗杰斯的净负面6个百分点更差。
两大政党的支持率都为负面。共和党党的净支持率为-12，民主党党为-13。
“密歇根州的左翼士气高涨，正如全国其他地区一样，这应该有助于提高投票率，”共和党民调专家达伦·肖说道，他与民主党人克里斯·安德森共同负责福克斯新闻的民调工作。
“但埃尔赛义德的提名之路凸显了党内分歧。他需要安抚密歇根州广泛的民主党群体——包括里根民主党人、犹太选民和黑人选民——让他们相信他会为他们的利益服务，而非追求极端议程。”
MAGA运动的支持率比DSA高出10个百分点（40% vs. 30%）。然而，选民对MAGA的强烈反对率也高于DSA（45% vs. 37%）。
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通货膨胀是密歇根州参议院竞选中的头号议题，占比38%，经济焦虑依然明显，40%的选民称自己的财务状况正在恶化。其他选民优先事项包括移民/边境安全和医疗保健（各占14%）以及政治分歧（11%）。
埃尔赛义德在优先考虑通货膨胀（领先10个百分点）、医疗保健（领先47个百分点）和政治分歧（领先5个百分点）的选民中具有竞争力，而大多数关注移民问题的选民更支持罗杰斯（领先82个百分点）。
称自己财务状况正在恶化的选民也以24个百分点的差距支持埃尔赛义德。
密歇根州选民以11个百分点的差距反对美国继续向以色列政府提供军事援助（44%支持 vs. 55%反对）。支持援助的选民以45个百分点的差距支持罗杰斯，而反对援助的选民则以29个百分点的差距支持埃尔赛义德。
接下来是州长竞选……
由于民主党州长格雷琴·惠特默任期届满，密歇根州州长席位将开放竞争。
福克斯新闻民调显示，民主党人乔斯琳·本森在州长竞选中以5个百分点的优势领先共和党人约翰·詹姆斯（52% vs. 47%），结果处于本次调查的抽样误差范围内。
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与埃尔赛义德相比，本森在非DSA民主党人和无党派人士中获得了更高的支持率：州长竞选中本森的支持率为81%，而参议院竞选中埃尔赛义德的支持率为69%。
存在一定的选票拆分现象：罗杰斯的支持者转投本森的可能性是埃尔赛义德支持者转投詹姆斯的三倍左右（14% vs. 5%）。
点击此处查看交叉表和原始数据
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总体而言，约五分之一的本森支持者和四分之一的詹姆斯支持者表示，他们仍有可能改变主意，转而支持其他候选人。
本森的个人净支持率为+7（49%正面，42%负面），而詹姆斯为-3（41%正面，44%负面）。
本次民调于2026年8月6日至10日进行，由Beacon Research（民主党团队）和Shaw & Company Research（共和党团队）联合指导，共采访了从全州选民档案中随机抽取的1006名密歇根州登记选民。受访者通过固定电话（103人）、手机（654人）接受现场采访，或在收到短信后在线完成调查（249人）。
基于全部样本的结果抽样误差为±3个百分点。子群体结果的抽样误差更高。除抽样误差外，问题措辞和顺序也会影响调查结果。用于制定权重目标的数据来源包括最新的美国社区调查、福克斯新闻选民分析和选民档案数据。通常会针对年龄、种族、教育程度和地区变量进行加权，以确保受访者的人口统计数据能够代表登记选民群体。仅当样本量至少达到N=100时，才会展示子群体的调查结果。
Fox News Poll: A Senate battle looms in Michigan
August 13, 2026 6:00pm EDT / Fox News
The GOP nominee has an edge in the Senate race, while the Democrat is favored for governor
By Victoria Balara Fox News
Lara Trump: It’s almost like Abdul El-Sayed wants Mike Rogers to be Michigan’s next senator
Fox News host Lara Trump criticized Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed and discussed the success rate of Trump vs. DSA endorsements on ‘My View.’
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In Michigan, while more Democrats than Republicans are concerned about their candidates’ ideological views, Democrats are also more engaged and enthusiastic about the upcoming election, setting up a battle in the Wolverine State.
After a heated Democratic primary, progressive Abdul El-Sayed secured the Senate nomination and will face Republican Mike Rogers this fall as Democrats try to retake the Senate.
According to a Fox News survey of Michigan registered voters, Rogers has the edge in the race with 51% to El-Sayed’s 47%, within the survey’s margin of sampling error.
FOX NEWS POLL: NEW MATCHUP, SAME RESULT: MAINE SENATE RACE STAYS LOCKED
Rogers’ edge comes mostly from greater party unity among Republicans. Nearly all Republicans (96%), including both MAGA (99%) and non-MAGA Republicans (89%), back Rogers.
Only a week after winning the primary race, 9 in 10 Democrats (91%) and nearly all Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) supporters (98%) back El-Sayed, but that falls to 69% among non-DSA Democrats and independents. The small subgroup of independents narrowly favors Rogers.
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El-Sayed’s coalition includes liberal voters, Black voters, urban residents and women with a college degree.
Rogers’ most loyal groups are conservatives, White evangelical Christians, rural voters and White men without a degree.
Men favor Rogers by 11 points (44% El-Sayed vs. 55% Rogers), while women are split (49-48%).
President Donald Trump won the Wolverine State in 2016 and 2024, each time by less than 2 points, while former President Joe Biden won by nearly 3 points in 2020.
El-Sayed is underperforming with Black voters, women and suburban voters compared with former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. Rogers similarly trails Trump’s 2024 support among voters under age 30 and independents. That’s according to the 2024 Michigan Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA).
Voter enthusiasm for their candidate is evident on both sides. About three-quarters of each candidate’s supporters are certain they will stick with their choice this fall, and about two-thirds say their support is mainly for their candidate rather than against his opponent.
FOX NEWS POLL: GOP DIVISIONS SHAPE TEXAS SENATE RACE
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El-Sayed leads among the most engaged voters with an 11-point advantage among those extremely interested in the election, a 7-point lead among those extremely motivated and a 4-point edge among definite voters (10-out-of-10 likelihood).
Moreover, more Democrats than Republicans are extremely interested (+15 points), motivated to vote (+11) and certain they will cast a ballot this November (+7).
More than half the electorate is concerned El-Sayed’s positions on the issues are too extreme (54%) and that Rogers is too close to Trump (51%).
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Voters on both sides of the aisle share concerns about their candidate’s ideological positioning. Twice as many Democrats are concerned El-Sayed is too extreme (30%) as Republicans are that Rogers is too close to Trump (14%). By a 10-point margin, more independents are concerned about Rogers’ ties to Trump than El-Sayed’s issue positions (58% vs. 48%).
Trump’s favorable rating is underwater by 19 points in Michigan (40% favorable, 59% unfavorable). Both Senate candidates also have negative ratings, with El-Sayed (-13 points) faring worse than Rogers (-6).
The two major political parties are viewed negatively. The Republican Party has a -12 net favorable rating while the Democratic Party is at -13.
“The energy is on the left in Michigan, as it is throughout the country, and that should help with turnout,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson.
“But El-Sayed’s nomination path highlighted party rifts. He needs to reassure a wide range of Michigan Democrats — including Reagan Democrats, Jewish voters and Black voters — that he will serve their interests rather than pursue an extremist agenda.”
The MAGA movement is viewed more favorably than the DSA by 10 points (40% vs. 30%). However, more voters have strongly unfavorable views of MAGA than DSA (45% vs. 37%).
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Inflation is the top issue in the Michigan Senate race at 38%, and economic anxiety remains palpable, with 4 in 10 saying they are falling behind financially. Other voter priorities are immigration/border security and healthcare (14% each) and political divisions (11%).
El-Sayed stays competitive thanks to voters who prioritize inflation (+10 points), healthcare (+47) and political divisions (+5), while most immigration voters prefer Rogers (+82).
Those who say they are falling behind financially also back El-Sayed by 24 points.
By an 11-point margin, Michiganders oppose the U.S. continuing to provide military aid to the Israeli government (44% favor vs. 55% oppose). Those favoring aid back Rogers by 45 points, while those opposed prefer El-Sayed by 29 points.
Turning to the governor’s race …
With Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer term-limited, Michigan’s gubernatorial seat is up for grabs.
The Fox News poll finds Democrat Jocelyn Benson has the advantage over Republican John James by 5 points in the governor’s contest (52% vs. 47%). The results fall within the survey’s margin of sampling error.
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Compared with El-Sayed, Benson draws greater support among non-DSA Democrats and independents: 81% favor Benson in the governor’s race vs. 69% for El-Sayed in the Senate race.
There is some ticket-splitting with Rogers’ backers nearly three times as likely to cross over for Benson as El-Sayed supporters are to back James (14% vs. 5%).
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Overall, about 1 in 5 Benson supporters and 1 in 4 James supporters say they may still change their mind and back someone else.
Benson’s net personal favorable rating is +7 (49% favorable, 42% unfavorable), while James is at -3 (41% favorable, 44% unfavorable).
Conducted Aug. 6-10, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,006 Michigan registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (103) and cellphones (654) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (249).
Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
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