2026-11-03T22:12:33.268Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
根据CNN选民投票调查的全国初步结果，选民普遍对国家状况、经济形势以及唐纳德·特朗普总统的工作表现感到不满。
全国约四分之三的选民表示对国家现状感到不满或更糟，约40%的选民自称感到愤怒。
早期结果显示，这种不满情绪由两个因素驱动：对特朗普的负面评价以及对当前经济状况的不满。这些力量将如何精准发挥作用仍有待观察——尤其是在一些成为意外竞争激烈的参议院选举主场的铁杆共和党州。
全国约60%的选民不认可特朗普的工作表现，其中约一半的人表示强烈不认可。在2024年支持特朗普的选民中，约有五分之一的人现在不认可他的表现。
称通胀给其造成困难的选民比例与2024年持平。但这次，许多选民将指责直接归咎于特朗普。约三分之二的选民表示，他们认为特朗普加剧了国家的经济状况，多数人将物价上涨直接归因于他的政策，而非他无法控制的因素。
大多数选民怀疑特朗普的优先事项是否恰当，并表示他将自身利益置于国家利益之上。尽管总统敦促其基础支持者投票时仿佛他本人在参选，但不到五分之一的选民表示他们的众议院投票是支持特朗普，其余人则表示要么是投票反对特朗普，要么特朗普并非他们投票决定的因素。
约四分之三的选民称经济状况糟糕，约90%的选民表示生活成本是其投票选择的“关键”或重要因素。
当被要求选择国家面临的最重要问题时，选民最可能的答案是经济，其次是民主状况——这一宽泛议题通常涵盖民主党对特朗普的反对。将移民、医疗保健、外交政策或犯罪列为首要关切的选民相对较少。
CNN选民投票调查是前几年出口民调的延续，结合了选举日在投票站进行的传统面对面采访，以及选举前几周在全国范围内开展的数万次采访。这一范围使这些民调成为了解今年选举选民人口结构和政治观点的有力工具。其最终结果将最终与选举本身的最终结果进行对比加权。
即便如此，出口民调仍然是民调，存在误差幅度——这意味着它们最适合被视为估计值，而非精确测量值。对于尚未根据最终选举结果进行调整的早期数据而言尤其如此。点击此处了解今年调查的开展方式。
许多早期选民投票调查结果与中期选举期间可见的政治动态一致。选民对特朗普白宫前两年的不满情绪超出了经济不满，多数人表示其政府在移民执法方面走得太远，且美国对伊朗采取军事行动是错误决定。
选民对华盛顿的不满情绪并未止步于行政部门。对国会和最高法院的评价也为负面，而且对两大政党的支持率均低于50%，共和党比民主党更为严重。在初始结果中，民主党在处理经济问题的信任度上略微领先于共和党——考虑到过去几届选举中民主党在这一问题上处于劣势，这一数字令人瞩目——约五分之一的选民表示他们对任何一个政党都不信任。
选民还对美国整体表达悲观情绪，多数人预计下一代人的生活将比现在更糟，只有约三分之一的人表示经济体系对大多数美国人是公平的。
调查方法 |由SSRS开展的CNN选民投票调查于10月19日至11月3日进行，预计将涵盖全国约10万名选民的代表性样本。该选民投票调查结合了从在线和电话核实的登记选民处收集的数据，以及在15个州投票站实地收集的数据。选举日前收集的数据包括大选前和选举日选民的数据，并根据选民的投票可能性进行了加权。在选举日前无法核实已投票的人当中开展了回访采访，以确认他们的选择和投票率。受访者可选择用英语或西班牙语完成调查。全国整体样本的结果误差幅度为正负0.6个百分点；子群体和个别州的误差幅度更大。
Early CNN Voter Poll results find an electorate deeply unhappy with Trump and the economy
2026-11-03T22:12:33.268Z / CNN
Voters are broadly unhappy with the state of the nation, the condition of the economy and President Donald Trump’s job performance, according to the preliminary national results of CNN’s Voter Poll.
Roughly three-quarters of voters nationally say they feel dissatisfied or worse with the way things are going in the country, with around 4 in 10 describing themselves as angry.
There are two factors driving that unhappiness, the early results suggest: negative views of Trump and dissatisfaction with current economic conditions. How precisely those dynamics play out remains to be seen — particularly in some of the deeply Republican states that have become home to unexpectedly competitive Senate races.
Roughly 6 in 10 voters nationally disapprove of Trump’s job performance, with about half saying they disapprove strongly. About one-fifth of voters who backed Trump in 2024 now disapprove of his performance.
The share of voters who say inflation has caused them hardship is similar to where it stood in 2024. But this time, many voters lay the blame directly on Trump. Around two-thirds say they feel he has worsened economic conditions in the country, with most attributing higher costs directly to his policies, rather than factors outside of his control.
Most voters doubt that Trump has the right priorities and say he puts his own interests above those of the country. And despite the president’s exhortations to his base to vote as though he were on the ballot, less than a fifth of voters say their House vote was cast in support of Trump, with the rest saying either that they were voting in opposition to Trump or that he was not a factor in their decision.
Around three-quarters of voters call economic conditions bad, and roughly 9 in 10 say the cost of living was “crucial” or a major factor in their vote choice.
Asked to choose the most important issue facing the country, voters are most likely to say it’s the economy, followed by the state of democracy — a broad issue that often encompasses Democratic opposition to Trump. Relatively few call immigration, healthcare, foreign policy or crime their top concern.
The CNN Voter Poll, a successor to previous years’ exit polls, combines traditional in-person interviews at polling places on Election Day with tens of thousands of interviews conducted nationwide in the weeks before the election. That scope makes the polls a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year’s election. And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the elections themselves.
Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error — which means they’re most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That’s particularly true for the earliest numbers, which haven’t yet been adjusted to match final election results. Learn more about how this year’s surveys were conducted here.
Many of the early Voter Poll findings align with political dynamics seen through the midterm campaign. Voters’ unhappiness with the first two years of this Trump White House go beyond economic discontent, with most saying his administration has gone too far on immigration enforcement and that the US made the wrong decision in taking military action against Iran.
Voters’ unhappy views of Washington don’t stop with the executive branch. Views of Congress and the Supreme Court are also negative, and opinions of both political parties are underwater, the GOP more deeply so than the Democrats. In the initial results, Democrats hold a slight edge over the Republicans on trust to handle the economy — a striking number, given their disadvantage on this issue in past cycles — with roughly one-fifth saying they don’t trust either party.
And voters also express pessimism about the US more broadly, with most expecting life for the next generation to be worse than life today, and only about one-third saying the economic system is fair to most Americans.
METHODOLOGY |The CNN Voter Poll conducted by SSRS was conducted from October 19-November 3, and is expected to include a representative sample of approximately 100,000 voters nationwide. The Voter Poll combines data collected from verified registered voters online and by telephone, with data collected in-person at polling locations in 15 states. Data collected before Election Day includes both pre-election and Election Day voters and has been weighted by voters’ probability of turning out. Recontact interviews were conducted among people who could not be verified as having voted prior to Election Day to confirm their choices and turnout. Respondents could complete the poll in English or Spanish. Results for the full national sample have a margin of error of plus or minus 0.6 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups and in individual states.
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