作者:詹妮弗·德·平托、弗雷德·巴克斯
更新时间:2026年11月3日 美国东部时间下午5:28 / CBS新闻
说明:结果将在整晚持续更新。
CBS新闻2026年中期选举出口民调概述
根据早期出口民调,特朗普总统的支持率将创下中期选举中总统的最低支持率。目前支持率为38%,低于特朗普第一任期内的支持率,也低于2006年乔治·W·布什的支持率,当时布什所在政党失去了参众两院的多数席位。
中期选举往往是对在任总统的全民公投,本次也不例外。约60%的选民表示,特朗普是他们众议院投票时考虑的一个因素。
这一情况主要由支持民主党的选民推动,这些选民绝大多数是出于反对特朗普的动机。
但对于支持共和党的选民来说,这更多与总统无关。2018年时,大多数共和党选民表示投票是为了支持特朗普,如今这一比例有所下降。
总统经常告诉支持者,要把他当作候选人来投票,而对很多支持“让美国再次伟大”(MAGA)阵营的人来说,他们确实是这么做的。大多数支持“让美国再次伟大”的共和党人表示,他们投票是为了支持特朗普,但多数非“让美国再次伟大”的共和党人表示,特朗普并非他们投票的考虑因素。
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选民情绪十分低迷
选民们显然很不满意。
当前出口民调显示,约四分之三的选民至少对国家的发展方向感到不满。与2024年相比,如今更多人对现状感到愤怒,经济焦虑持续存在,而投票给民主党的选民尤其容易感到愤怒。
经济问题以及对特朗普解决经济问题能力的信任,曾助力他在2024年获胜,但如今选民对经济状况的看法并未改善。
事实上,如今对经济持负面看法的选民比例高于两年前,对经济的看法也与2022年中期选举时更为一致,当时执政党失去了多个席位。
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生活成本:选民正面临压力
选民在钱包上真切感受到了压力。根据早期出口民调,认为自己财务状况变差的可能性是认为变好的两倍多。
各党派选民都对支付汽油、食品杂货及水电费等各类开支表示担忧。
连续两届选举以来,多数选民表示通胀给家庭带来了困难,其中约五分之一的选民将这种困难形容为非常严重。
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所有这些因素加在一起,生活成本已成为各党派选民的一个主要考量因素,但对支持民主党的选民来说,这一因素更为关键。对支持共和党的选民而言,执法问题更为关键。
当选民从一系列问题中选出最重要的议题时,经济位居榜首,其次是民主制度的状况。投票给民主党的选民优先考虑民主制度的状况——这一问题长期以来一直令他们担忧。
对支持共和党的选民而言,经济是他们最重要的议题,其次是移民问题。
将民主制度状况视为首要议题的选民,尤其可能认为政府腐败是其投票的重要因素。
政府腐败:跨党派选民的主要考量因素
全国约90%的选民表示,政府腐败是其投票的重要因素——与生活成本的影响大致相当,且对投票给民主党的选民来说至关重要。
约60%的选民认为特朗普总统将个人利益置于国家利益之上。
伊朗战争
尽管伊朗战争对选民的影响不如生活成本大,但这场冲突并不受民众欢迎。大多数人认为美国采取军事行动的决定是错误的,其中约四分之一的共和党人也这么认为。
那些最关心能否负担得起汽油费用的人,最不同意袭击伊朗的决定。
所有这些不满是否意味着在野党会获得民众支持?
没有任何一个政党获得了多数选民的正面评价。
约五分之一支持民主党众议院候选人的选民对民主党持负面看法。大多数民主党人投票的动机是反对特朗普。
而且,人们并不普遍认为民主党更有能力处理关键议题。
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新兴议题
数据中心成为本次竞选的一个议题。在所有参议院关键争夺选区,多数选民反对在其社区内建设数据中心。
更多选民认为人工智能对社会的危害大于益处。
选民信心
绝大多数选民至少在一定程度上相信,他们的选票将在全国及所在州准确统计,且符合资格的选民将能够投票。不过,尽管他们对自己的选票统计有信心,但投票给共和党的选民对阻止不符合资格的选民投票的信心要低得多。
本次全国出口民调衡量的是全国选民对众议院选举的整体偏好。当然,众议院是按选区逐个选举的。
关于各州的简要说明
根据早期出口民调,特朗普总统的工作支持率几乎在所有参议院关键争夺选区都低于反对率,包括他在2024年以两位数优势获胜的那些州。
在所有参议院关键争夺选区,与数年前相比,更多选民表示自己的财务状况变差,而非变好。
选民们关注参议院的政党控制权。多数投票给共和党候选人和民主党的选民都表示,参议院由哪个政党控制是他们投票的重要因素。
CBS新闻出口民调在选举日及选举前数周,对全国各地投票站的数千名选民进行了采访。选民投票调查的方式如下。
See CBS News exit poll results for the 2026 midterm elections
By Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus
Updated on: November 3, 2026 / 5:28 PM EST / CBS News
Note: Results will continue to update throughout the night.
Overview of CBS News 2026 exit polls for the midterm elections
President Trump is on track for the lowest approval rating for a president in a midterm election, according to early exit polls. Currently at 38%, it’s lower than it was during Mr. Trump’s first term, and lower than it was for George W. Bush in 2006 when his party lost both houses of Congress.
Midterm elections have often been a referendum on the sitting president, and this one is no exception. Roughly six in 10 say Mr. Trump is a factor in their vote for the House.
This is being driven largely by voters backing Democrats, who are overwhelmingly motivated by opposition to Mr. Trump.
But for those backing Republicans, it’s less about the president. Back in 2018, most Republican voters said their vote was to support Mr. Trump. That figure is lower today.
The president has often told his supporters to pretend he is on the ballot, and for many in the MAGA base, they may be doing just that. Most MAGA Republicans say their vote is to support Mr. Trump, but most non-MAGA Reps say he is not a factor.
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The mood of the electorate is a sour one
Voters are just plain not happy.
Current exit polls show roughly three-quarters of voters are at least dissatisfied with the direction of the country. More are angry now about how things are going than they were in 2024, as economic anxiety persists. Those voting for Democrats are particularly likely to be angry.
The issue of the economy and trust in Mr. Trump to fix it helped propel him to victory in 2024, but voters feel no better about the condition of the economy today.
In fact, more voters have negative views of the economy now than they did two years ago, and views of the economy are more in line with what we saw in the 2022 midterms, when the party in power lost seats.
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Cost of living: Voters are feeling the pinch
Voters are feeling it in their pocketbooks. They are more than twice as likely to say their finances are worse rather than better, based on early exit polls.
Voters across parties express concern about affording everything from gas to groceries to utilities.
For two consecutive elections, most voters have said inflation caused hardship for their family, including about one in five who describe that hardship as severe.
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All this adds up to the cost of living being a major factor for voters across parties, but it’s more crucial for those backing Democrats. Immigration enforcement is more crucial for those backing Republicans.
When voters are asked to pick their most important issue from a list, the economy comes out on top, followed by the state of democracy. Those voting for Democrats prioritize the state of democracy — an issue that has long concerned them.
For those backing Republicans, the economy is their most important issue, followed by immigration.
Voters who pick the state of democracy as their top issue are particularly likely to say government corruption is a crucial factor in their vote.
Government corruption: It’s a major factor for voters across party lines
Roughly nine in 10 voters nationally say government corruption is a major factor in their vote — about the same as cost of living — and it’s crucial to those voting for Democrats.
About six in 10 voters think President Trump puts his own personal interests over the country.
The Iran War
While the war with Iran is less of a factor for voters than the cost of living, the conflict is not popular. Most think the U.S. made the wrong decision to take that military action, including about a quarter of Republicans.
Those most concerned about affording gas are the most likely to disagree with the decision to attack Iran.
Does all this dissatisfaction translate to satisfaction with the party out of power?
Neither political party is viewed favorably by a majority of voters.
About one in five backing Democrats for the House have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party. Most Democrats are motivated by their opposition to Mr. Trump.
And the Democratic Party isn’t overwhelmingly seen as the party better able to handle key issues.
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Emerging issues
Data centers arose as an issue in this campaign. In all the Senate battlegrounds, majorities oppose the construction of a data center in their community.
More voters see artificial intelligence as doing more to harm society than to help it.
Voter confidence
Large majorities of voters are at least somewhat confident that their votes will be counted accurately both nationwide and in their own states, and that eligible voters will be allowed to vote. But while they are confident in their votes being counted, those voting Republican are far less confident that people who are not eligible to vote will be prevented from voting.
This national exit poll measures the general preference for voters nationwide in their choice for the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives, of course, is elected seat by seat.
A quick note on the states
Mr. Trump’s job approval is currently underwater in nearly all the Senate battleground states, according to early exit polls, including in states that he won by double digits in 2024.
In all the Senate battlegrounds, more say their finances are worse, not better, compared to years ago.
And party control of the Senate was on the minds of voters. Majorities of those voting for Republican candidates and those voting for Democrats say which party controls the Senate was a major factor in their vote.
The CBS News exit poll interviewed thousands of voters across the country at polling locations on Election Day and in the weeks leading up to Election Day. This is how the voter polling was conducted.
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