2026-10-01T19:06:29.953Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
我们尚不清楚2026年美国中期选举会如何发展。
但目前我们可以确定的是，唐纳德·特朗普总统在通胀问题上的处理方式是一项历史性的政治负资产——这类情况在美国现代政治中极为少见。
目前，多达十分之八的美国人不认可他在该问题上的表现。这一比例超过了因错误发动战争、拙劣应对危机甚至水门事件这类重大丑闻而不被民众认可的历届总统。
周四发布的一项美联社-NORC民调是特朗普遭遇的又一个糟糕民调结果。该民调显示，美国人对他在生活成本问题上的表现认可度低得惊人：82%对17%。
即便只是在政治议题上达成70%的民众共识都极为罕见，但特朗普成功让十分之八的美国人反对他处理这个美国最重要议题之一的方式。
而且这项民调并非个别异常值。以下是近期相关民调的简要汇总：
- 三项近期民调显示特朗普在该问题上的支持率已跌至个位数区间——美联社-NORC民调（17%）、路透社-益普索民调（17%）以及马凯特法学院民调（19%）。
- 另有三项民调显示至少80%的民众不认可他的表现：美联社-NORC民调（82%）、马凯特法学院民调（80%）以及CNN民调（80%）。
- 美联社-NORC、路透社-益普索、马凯特法学院以及CNN的民调均显示，至少50%的共和党人不认可特朗普的表现。
- 福克斯新闻的民调显示，29%自称“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）的共和党人不认可他的表现。
- CNN民调显示，在原本表示认可特朗普的受访者中，有43%的人不认可他在通胀问题上的处理方式。
- 尽管没有大学学历的白人或许是特朗普的核心选民群体，但在这些民调中，有63%至72%的该群体受访者表示不认可他的表现。
这种在重大议题上如此高比例的不认可态度鲜有先例，不过乔治·W·布什在2008年金融危机临近结束时，曾在哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）/《纽约时报》的民调中遭遇过77%的经济问题处理不认可率。1980年，同一民调机构显示，在高失业率和通胀背景下，吉米·卡特在经济问题上的不支持率峰值达到74%。
最可能导致如此高不认可率的因素似乎是战争，这类议题向来不得人心，但都比不上民众对特朗普处理生活成本问题的反感。乔治·W·布什在伊拉克战争问题上的不支持率峰值约为70%。乔·拜登从阿富汗撤军的不支持率峰值约为三分之二。越南战争曾让林登·约翰逊在1968年放弃连任，但他在该问题上的不支持率仅在60%区间。
事实上，战争相关议题的最高不支持率纪录是特朗普近期在伊朗问题上的民调数据。CNN民调显示，73%的美国人不认可他在该问题上的处理方式。
在危机应对方面，多达64%的美国人不认可布什对卡特里娜飓风的处理方式，而卡特在伊朗人质危机期间的不支持率升至50%以上。就连特朗普处理国会山冲击事件的表现（CNN民调显示67%的人不认可），都不如当下民众对他和通胀问题的反感程度一边倒。
在丑闻方面，罗纳德·里根在伊朗门事件上的不支持率在1987年1月的《华盛顿邮报》-美国广播公司（ABC）民调中最高达到69%。而在水门事件最严重时期，多达71%的美国人不认可理查德·尼克松在国内事务上的表现（当时我们没有专门针对水门事件的优质民调数据）。
说到尼克松，赦免问题也考验过美国人的容忍度。但根据罗珀公共舆论研究中心汇总的民调数据，即便杰拉尔德·福特赦免尼克松一事本应重创其政治生涯，该事件的不支持率也仅在50%区间。
事实上，特朗普此前在重大议题上接近80%不支持率的情况，是另一项有争议的赦免行动：去年他赦免了参与国会山冲击事件的暴力罪犯。皮尤研究中心的民调显示，74%的美国人不认可他的这一做法。
你或许已经注意到了一种趋势：诸多总统支持率最低的议题都指向了同一位总统：特朗普。其中包括伊朗问题、国会山冲击事件以及相关赦免行动。但民众在通胀问题上对他的不认可程度，超过了上述所有议题。
你或许能理解，共和党人为何突然急于在选举前通过负担能力相关的立法。
特朗普在周四发布的《时代》杂志最新采访中表示，美国人不应将生活成本压力归咎于他，并再次将通胀归咎于拜登。（尽管如今的通胀率高于特朗普去年就职时的水平。）
但美联社-NORC的民调是最新表明这一策略行不通的证据。该民调显示，65%的美国人认为特朗普的政策是推高物价的原因，而非他无法控制的因素。而在2022年中期选举前，认为拜登政策导致物价高企的美国人比例要低得多：仅为44%。
特朗普所在的共和党或许仍能在即将到来的中期选举中表现尚可。但如果真能如此，那也是因为尽管选民将通胀列为首要关切议题，他们仍对总统存在历史性的不满。
8 in 10 Americans disapprove of Trump on inflation. That’s extremely rare for a president
2026-10-01T19:06:29.953Z / CNN
We don’t yet know how the 2026 midterm elections will shake out.
What we can say right now is that President Donald Trump’s handling of inflation is a historic liability — the likes of which we’ve rarely seen in modern American politics.
As many as 8 in 10 Americans now disapprove of Trump on that issue. That’s more than disapproved of presidents for wars gone wrong, botched crisis responses and even major scandals like Watergate.
A new AP-NORC poll on Thursday was the latest ugly data point for Trump. It showed Americans disapproved of him on cost-of-living issues by a stunning margin: 82% to 17%.
It’s rare to get even 70% of Americans to agree on anything political. But Trump has managed to unite 8 in 10 Americans against his handling of one of the country’s most important issues.
And this poll isn’t just some outlier. Here’s a brief recap of recent polls on this issue:
- Three recent polls have shown Trump’s approval rating on this dropping into the teens — AP-NORC (17%), Reuters-Ipsos (17%) and Marquette Law School (19%).
- Three have also shown at least 80% disapprove — AP-NORC (82%), Marquette (80%) and a CNN poll (80%).
- The AP-NORC, Reuters-Ipsos, Marquette Law School and CNN poll all show at least 50% of Republicans disapproved.
- 29% of self-described MAGA Republicans disapproved, according to a Fox News poll.
- 43% of people who otherwise said they approved of Trump disapproved of him on inflation, per the CNN poll.
- Between 63% and 72% of White people without college degrees disapproved in these polls, despite that being perhaps Trump’s signature demographic.
The level of disapproval on such a major issue has few precedents, though George W. Bush did face a 77% disapproval rating in a CBS News/New York Times poll for his handling of the economy near the end of his term after the 2008 financial crisis. In 1980, the same pollster showed Jimmy Carter’s disapproval on that issue peaking at 74% amid high unemployment and inflation.
One of the likeliest culprits for such high disapproval numbers would seem to be war. And those have been very unpopular. But not as unpopular as Trump’s handling of the cost of living. George W. Bush’s disapproval rating on the Iraq war peaked around 70%. Disapproval of Joe Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan peaked around two-thirds. And the Vietnam war led Lyndon Johnson to scrap his reelection bid in 1968, but his disapproval rating on the issue was only in the 60s.
In fact, the highest disapproval rating for a war appears to be Trump’s latest numbers on the Iran war. The CNN poll showed 73% disapproved of his handling of that.
When it comes to crises, as many as 64% disapproved of Bush’s handling of Hurricane Katrina, and Carter’s disapproval amid the Iran hostage crisis climbed into the mid-50s. Even Trump’s handling of the January 6 attack on the Capitol (67% in CNN polling) wasn’t as lopsided as Trump and inflation right now.
As far as scandals, Ronald Reagan’s disapproval on the Iran-Contra affair reached as high as 69% in a January 1987 Washington Post-ABC News poll. And at the height of Watergate, as many as 71% of Americans disapproved of Richard Nixon on domestic issues. (We don’t have good approval polling from back then on Watergate, specifically.)
Speaking of Nixon, pardons have also tested Americans’ tolerance. But even Gerald Ford’s pardon of Nixon — which was supposed to have crippled Ford politically — only saw a disapproval rating in the 50s, according to polls compiled by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.
Indeed, about the closest Trump got previously to 80% disapproval on a major issue was another controversial set of pardons: his pardons of violent January 6 defendants last year. A Pew Research Center poll showed 74% of Americans disapproved of that.
You might be noticing a trend here. Many of the issues with the highest presidential disapproval ratings involve the same president: Trump. That includes the Iran war, the January 6 Capitol attack and the related pardons. But the disapproval he faces on inflation surpasses all of those issues.
You could perhaps understand why Republicans are suddenly anxious to pass legislation on affordability before the election.
Trump in a new Time magazine interview published Thursday said Americans shouldn’t hold him responsible for their affordability problems and again blamed inflation on Biden. (This despite inflation being higher today than it was when Trump took over last year.)
But the AP-NORC poll is the latest to suggest that strategy won’t work. It shows 65% of Americans blamed Trump’s policies for high prices more so than factors beyond his control. That number for Biden just before the 2022 midterm elections was much lower: 44%.
Perhaps Trump’s party can still do OK in the upcoming midterms. But if it does, it will be despite historic dissatisfaction with the president on voters’ clear No. 1 issue.
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