2026年10月1日 美国东部时间12:45 / 福克斯新闻
福克斯新闻实力排名显示19场势均力敌的竞选，民主党以215比201领先，最终多数席位仍未确定
作者：伊丽莎白·埃尔金德
争夺国会控制权的战役已进入最后冲刺阶段，距离美国选民揭晓谁将在唐纳德·特朗普总统任期的最后两年执掌权力仅剩一个多月。
在最新的福克斯新闻实力排名中，众议院民主党领先共和党，预计民主党将拿下众议院215个席位，而共和党为201个。但仍有19个席位被列为势均力敌的竞争席位，这意味着最终的多数席位归属仍未可知。
在原本惨淡的选周期中，给共和党带来一线希望的是席卷民主党的极左翼激进势力。社会主义候选人取得的几场关键胜利，可能会迫使民主党比大多数美国选民更加左倾，这也是全美共和党候选人共同发出的警告。
福克斯新闻实力排名：民主党在众议院领先，但重新划分选区让共和党仍有机会
以下是10个目前由民主党掌控的众议院选区名单，共和党若能在这些选区取得关键胜利，将有助于他们保住众议院多数席位。
众议院民主党领袖杰基·杰弗里斯（D-纽约州）2026年8月13日在亚特兰大万豪侯爵酒店举行的2026年美国黑人记者协会大会上发表演讲。（盖蒂图片社）
阿拉巴马州第2国会选区
民主党众议员肖马里·菲格雷斯（D-阿拉巴马州）正在该国会选区寻求连任，该选区已重新划分，大幅偏向共和党。
最高法院批准阿拉巴马州共和党支持的国会选区地图用于中期选举
2023年最高法院的一项裁决命令阿拉巴马州在2024年选举前增设第二个黑人机会选区，这意味着当地黑人选民将在大选中拥有切实的影响力。新的选区边界帮助菲格雷斯赢得了此前由共和党众议员巴里·穆尔（R-阿拉巴马州）掌控的席位，穆尔在该选举周期转战邻近选区。
但今年早些时候最高法院在“路易斯安那州诉卡莱斯案”中的裁决大幅限制了《选举权法案》对国会选区种族考量的执法力度，为南部各州修改旨在赋予少数群体更多代表权的选区边界铺平了道路。
重磅最高法院选举权裁决引发南部各州重新划分选区大战
这对菲格雷斯的打击尤为沉重。根据270ToWin的数据，新选区在2024年的投票倾向将使唐纳德·特朗普以约14个百分点的优势获胜。福克斯新闻实力排名和无党派的库克政治报告（CPR）都将该选区评为“大概率共和党获胜”。
佛罗里达州第9国会选区
佛罗里达州议员也在11月选举前修改了该州的选区地图，旨在让共和党在这个本已倾向红色的州获得微弱优势。
民主党众议员达伦·索托（D-佛罗里达州）正在竞选第六个任期，他的选区是受影响最严重的民主党席位之一。
270ToWin的分析显示，他重新划分后的新选区将使特朗普以近18个百分点的优势获胜。
重新划分选区给共和党带来优势，但负担能力将决定中期选举结果
福克斯新闻实力排名将该选区评为“倾向共和党”，而库克政治报告则将其列为“大概率共和党翻转席位”。
民主党众议员肖马里·菲格雷斯2025年11月12日在华盛顿特区美国国会大厦前与其他众议院民主党团成员举行医疗保健新闻发布会。（内森·波斯纳/阿纳多卢通讯社 via 盖蒂图片社）
佛罗里达州第14国会选区
由民主党众议员凯西·卡斯特罗（D-佛罗里达州）掌控的坦帕地区众议院席位，也被佛罗里达州政府重新划分，使其对共和党更具竞争力。
这位长期担任中间派民主党人的议员自2007年起进入国会，自2013年起代表当前选区。
她的对手是前佛罗里达州州议员、共和党人迈克·贝尔特兰，后者在该地区拥有一定知名度。
根据新的选区边界，270ToWin的数据显示，特朗普将以10.5个百分点的优势赢得该选区——新边界移除了圣彼得堡市周边更多倾向民主党的区域，转而纳入南部和东部更多的农村和郊区区域。
福克斯新闻实力排名和库克政治报告都将该选区评为“势均力敌”，意味着胜负未卜。
佛罗里达州第22国会选区
共和党人重新划分了佛罗里达州第22国会选区，这可能导致现任民主党众议员贾里德·莫斯科维茨和黛比·沃瑟曼·舒尔茨在一场可能耗资巨大、激烈异常的初选中对决。
但两人都选择转战其他选区，使得目前由民主党众议员洛伊斯·弗兰克尔（D-佛罗里达州）退休后空出的席位成为两党都有望争夺的机会。
根据佛罗里达州的新地图，270ToWin预计特朗普将在2024年以约10个百分点的优势赢得该选区。
民主党新人皮亚·丹迪亚将与共和党商人、海军陆战队退役人员凯西·阿斯卡尔展开角逐。
福克斯新闻和库克政治报告都将该选区评为“势均力敌”。
佛罗里达州第25国会选区
在共和党上述重新划分选区的操作后，民主党众议员贾里德·莫斯科维茨（D-佛罗里达州）转战佛罗里达州第25国会选区参选。从纸面数据来看，该选区的调整给共和党带来了微弱优势。
重新划分选区后，该选区从前副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯以微弱优势获胜的选区，变成了特朗普将以近10个百分点优势获胜的选区。
莫斯科维茨长期以来一直宣扬自己在国会以及在州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯领导下担任佛罗里达州应急管理主任期间的两党合作工作，这让民主党人有信心他能够克服共和党占优的政治环境变化。
福克斯新闻的最新预测将该席位评为“倾向民主党”，而库克政治报告则将其列为“势均力敌”。
民主党众议员贾里德·莫斯科维茨2023年12月13日在华盛顿特区举行的新闻发布会上发言。（杰马尔·康蒂丝/盖蒂图片社 为国会诚信项目拍摄）
路易斯安那州第6国会选区
民主党众议员克利奥·菲尔兹（D-路易斯安那州）将于今年年底退休，使得他的席位再次成为开放竞选席位。
但影响阿拉巴马州菲格雷斯的2023年和2026年最高法院裁决，今年也在路易斯安那州生效。
在最近一项削弱《选举权法案》的裁决后，共和党人得以重新划分第6选区，稀释了原本主要在2024年投票给民主党的黑人选民比例，纳入了更多倾向共和党的区域。
由于最高法院今年早些时候的裁决，路易斯安那州州长杰夫·兰德里签署法案，将该州众议院初选推迟至11月3日，大选推迟至12月12日。
福克斯新闻和库克政治报告的排名都预计该席位将落入共和党手中。
缅因州第2国会选区
中间派民主党众议员贾里德·戈尔登退休，为共和党在美东北选区提供了难得的翻转机会。
根据270ToWin的数据，戈尔登因在移民和关税等关键问题上经常违背本党立场而闻名，他所代表的选区在2024年特朗普以9个百分点的优势获胜。
在这场开放竞选中，共和党推出了强有力的候选人——前州长保罗·勒佩奇。
福克斯新闻将该选区评为“势均力敌”，而库克政治报告则预计其“大概率共和党获胜”。
北卡罗来纳州第1国会选区
长期处于摇摆选区的民主党众议员唐·戴维斯（D-北卡罗来纳州）正面临职业生涯中最艰难的连任竞选之一，因为北卡罗来纳州也在11月选举前加入了全国范围内的重新划分选区浪潮。
和戈尔登一样，戴维斯在2024年赢得了支持特朗普胜过哈里斯的选区。
但根据该州的新地图，特朗普在该选区的胜选差距大幅扩大，共和党赢得该席位的机会也随之增加。
戴维斯的对手是共和党人劳里·巴克哈特，戴维斯在2024年仅以不到2%的优势击败了她。
福克斯新闻将该选区评为“势均力敌”，而库克政治报告的排名则显示其“轻微倾向共和党”。
民主党众议员唐·戴维斯2024年10月13日在北卡罗来纳州格林维尔东卡罗来纳大学为当时的民主党总统候选人、副总统卡玛拉·哈里斯的竞选活动发表演讲。（大卫·耶兹尔，美联社档案）
德克萨斯州第35国会选区
德克萨斯州共和党人在2026年中期选举前启动了全国范围内的重新划分选区浪潮，新地图旨在为共和党额外拿下最多5个席位。
其中一个目标选区目前由国会进步党团主席格雷格·卡萨尔（D-德克萨斯州）掌控。
但卡萨尔现在转战附近的第37国会选区参选，使得第35选区成为一场两党都认为有机可乘的开放竞选。
根据新的选区边界，270ToWin预计特朗普将以约10个百分点的优势赢得该选区。
不过，共和党能否在该选区获胜，将在很大程度上取决于该州庞大的西班牙裔选民群体今年是否再次转向右翼。
福克斯新闻和库克政治报告都预计该选区将“轻微倾向共和党”。
俄亥俄州第9国会选区
民主党众议员马西·卡普图尔（D-俄亥俄州）今年的竞选之路也因该州新的国会选区地图而更加艰难。
卡普图尔的摇摆选区被小幅调整，纳入了更多倾向共和党的区域，使得原本就艰难的连任竞选更加举步维艰。
根据270ToWin的数据，按照新的选区边界，特朗普将以10.5个百分点的优势赢得该选区。
但自1982年首次当选以来，卡普图尔已多次在共和党主导的重新划分选区行动中幸存下来。她是国会历史上任职时间最长的女性议员，也是目前俄亥俄州任职时间最长的众议院议员。
[点击此处下载福克斯新闻应用]
福克斯新闻和库克政治报告在11月都将该选区评为“势均力敌”。
福克斯新闻的雷米·努马为本报告贡献了内容。
伊丽莎白·埃尔金德是福克斯新闻数字频道的政治记者，负责众议院的报道。此前曾在《每日邮报》和哥伦比亚广播公司新闻发表作品。
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10 Democrat-held House seats Republicans could flip to save their majority
October 1, 2026 12:45pm EDT / Fox News
Fox News Power Rankings show 19 toss-up races, with Democrats leading 215-201 while the final majority still up for grabs
By Elizabeth Elkind
The battle for control of Congress is entering its final sprint, with Republicans and Democrats just over a month away from learning who will wield power for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s presidency.
House Democrats lead House Republicans in the most recent Fox News Power Rankings, with the left projected to win 215 seats in the lower chamber compared to 201 for the GOP. But 19 seats are still ranked as toss-ups, meaning the final majority is still anyone’s to claim.
One issue that’s given Republicans a glimmer of hope in an otherwise bleak cycle is the far-left insurgency that’s gripped the Democratic Party. Several key victories by socialist candidates could threaten to push the party further left than most Americans are, a warning that GOP candidates across the country have shared.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: DEMOCRATS LEAD IN THE HOUSE, BUT REDISTRICTING KEEPS THE GOP IN THE GAME
Below is a list of 10 House districts currently held by Democrats where Republicans could see key victories that help them retain control.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., speaks onstage at the 2026 National Association of Black Journalists Convention at the Atlanta Marriott Marquis in Atlanta on Aug. 13, 2026.(Getty Images)
Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Ala., is running for re-election in a congressional district that’s been redrawn to significantly favor Republicans.
SUPREME COURT ALLOWS ALABAMA GOP-BACKED CONGRESSIONAL MAP FOR MIDTERMS
A 2023 Supreme Court decision ordered Alabama to create a second Black opportunity district ahead of the 2024 election, meaning Black voters there would have meaningful sway in the general election. The resulting boundaries helped Figures win his seat, which was previously held by Rep. Barry Moore, R-Ala., who ran in a neighboring district that cycle.
But the Supreme Court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais earlier this year significantly curbed the Voting Rights Act’s enforcement of racial considerations in congressional maps, paving the way for southern states to alter district boundaries that were drawn to give minorities more representation.
BLOCKBUSTER SUPREME COURT VOTING RIGHTS RULING IGNITES REDISTRICTING WAR ACROSS SOUTHERN STATES
That hit Figures particularly hard. The new district would have voted for President Donald Trump by roughly 14% in 2024, according to 270ToWin. Both Fox News Power Rankings and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report (CPR) rate it as “likely Republican.”
Florida’s 9th Congressional District
Florida lawmakers also altered their state’s map ahead of November, aimed at giving Republicans a slight edge in the already-red state.
Rep. Darren Soto, D-Fla., who is running for a sixth term representing his district, was one of the Democrats whose seat was hit the hardest.
His newly redrawn district voted for Trump by nearly 18%, 270ToWin’s analysis states.
REDISTRICTING GIVES REPUBLICANS AN EDGE, BUT AFFORDABILITY WILL DECIDE THE MIDTERMS
Fox News Power Rankings rates it as “lean Republican” while CPR ranks the seat as a “likely” Republican pickup.
Rep. Shomari Figures, D-Ala., speaks at a press conference on healthcare with other members of the House Democratic caucus in front of the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 12, 2025.(Nathan Posner/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Florida’s 14th Congressional District
The Tampa-area House seat held by Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Fla., was also among the blue seats redrawn by the Sunshine State’s government to make it more competitive for Republicans.
The longtime moderate Democrat has served in Congress since 2007 and represented her current district since 2013.
She’s facing off against a former Florida state lawmaker, Republican Mike Beltran, who also has name recognition in the area.
Under its new lines, which remove more Democrat-leaning places around the city of St. Petersburg in favor of more rural and suburban areas in the south and east, Trump would have won the district by 10.5% in 2024, according to 270ToWin.
Both Fox News Power Rankings and CPR rate it a “toss-up,” meaning it’s anyone’s game.
Florida’s 22nd Congressional District
Republicans redrew Florida’s 22nd Congressional District in a way that could have pitted incumbent Reps. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., against each other in a likely expensive and bruising primary.
But both opted to run in other districts, leaving the seat currently occupied by retiring Rep. Lois Frankel, D-Fla., as a potential opportunity for both parties.
Under Florida’s new map, 270ToWin projects Trump would have won the district by roughly 10% in 2024.
Democrat Pia Dandiya, a political newcomer, is running against Republican businessman and Marine Casey Askar.
Both Fox News and CPR rank the district a “toss-up.”
Florida’s 25th Congressional District
Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., is running in Florida’s 25th Congressional District after the GOP’s aforementioned redistricting play, a seat that on paper was amended to give Republicans a slight edge.
Redistricting shifted the seat from one that ex-Vice President Kamala Harris won by single digits to one that Trump would have won by nearly 10 points.
Moskowitz has long touted his bipartisan work in Congress and as Florida’s emergency management director under Gov. Ron DeSantis, giving Democrats some confidence that he could overcome the political shift in Republicans’ favor.
Fox News’ latest projections have the seat leaning Democrat, while CPR ranks it a “toss-up.”
Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Fla., speaks during a press conference on Dec. 13, 2023 in Washington, D.C.(Jemal Countess/Getty Images for Congressional Integrity Project)
Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District
Rep. Cleo Fields, D-La., is retiring at the end of this year, making his seat another open race.
But the same 2023 and 2026 Supreme Court decisions that affected Figures in Alabama are at play in the Bayou State this year.
After the most recent decision rolling back the Voting Rights Act, Republicans were able to redraw the 6th district in a way that diluted the Black population, who primarily voted Democrat in 2024, to factor in more red-leaning areas.
Because of the Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this year, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry signed legislation delaying the state’s House primary races to Nov. 3 and the general election to Dec. 12.
Both Fox News’ and CPR’s rankings project the seat to fall into Republican hands.
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
The retirement of moderate Rep. Jared Golden, D-Maine, has opened up a rare opportunity for a GOP pickup in the American Northeast.
Golden, who is known for frequently breaking from his own party on key issues like immigration and tariffs, represents a district that Trump won by 9% in 2024, according to 270ToWin.
Republicans have a particularly strong candidate in that open race, former Gov. Paul LePage.
Fox News rates the district a “toss-up,” while CPR projects it as a likely Republican victory.
North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District
Perennial battleground Rep. Don Davis, D-N.C., is facing one of his toughest re-election battles yet thanks to North Carolina also joining the nationwide redistricting fight ahead of November.
Like Golden, Davis also won a district that went to Trump over Harris in 2024.
But under the state’s new maps, Trump’s margin of victory in that state widened considerably — and with it, Republicans’ chances of winning.
Davis is facing Republican Laurie Buckhout, who he defeated in 2024 by less than 2%.
Fox News rates the district a “toss-up,” while CPR’s rankings say it leans slightly for Republicans.
Rep. Don Davis, D-N.C., speaks at a campaign event for then-Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris at East Carolina University, Oct. 13, 2024, in Greenville, N.C.(David Yeazell, File via AP)
Texas’ 35th Congressional District
Lone Star State Republicans kicked off the nationwide redistricting fight ahead of the 2026 midterms with a map that was redrawn to win the GOP up to five more seats in November.
Among those is a district currently represented by Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar, D-Texas.
But Casar is now running in the nearby 37th Congressional District, leaving the 35th a wide-open race that both parties see opportunity in.
Under the new boundaries, Trump would have won the district by roughly 10%, according to 270ToWin.
A GOP victory there, however, will depend heavily on its considerable Hispanic population shifting to the right again this year.
Both Fox News and CPR project the district leaning slightly in favor of Republicans.
Ohio’s 9th Congressional District
Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, is also running a tougher race this year thanks to her state’s new congressional map.
Kaptur’s battleground district was shifted slightly to include more Republican-leaning areas, making an already difficult re-election bid even more of an uphill battle.
Trump would have won the district by 10.5% under its new lines, according to 270ToWin.
But Kaptur has survived several attempts at redistricting by Republicans since her first victory in 1982. She is the longest-serving woman in congressional history and the longest currently-serving House member from Ohio.
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Both Fox News and CPR rated the district a “toss-up” in November.
Fox News’ Remy Numa contributed to this report.
Elizabeth Elkind is a politics reporter for Fox News Digital leading coverage of the House of Representatives. Previous digital bylines seen at Daily Mail and CBS News.
Follow on Twitter at @liz_elkind and send tips to elizabeth.elkind@fox.com
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