2026年9月28日 美国东部时间下午2:50 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻
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美国高盛集团表示，在柴油价格创下历史新高之际，美国临时暂停柴油出口的举措最初会降低国内油价，但长期禁令可能推高国内汽油价格。
特朗普总统周日对记者表示，他的政府“非常认真地”考虑对柴油出口实施禁令。近几周来，限制美国精炼柴油出口的呼声有所升温，主要来自共和党议员，他们认为这一举措将有助于降低油价。根据美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据，柴油价格在9月22日达到每加仑6.53美元的历史峰值，此后仅略有回落，周一跌至每加仑6.45美元。
出口禁令的支持者指出，根据标普全球能源部门的数据，美国能源企业精炼的柴油数量超过了美国国内的消费量，每日净出口约150万桶。这种思路认为，暂停这些出口将使国内柴油供应大幅增加，从而压低国内柴油价格，降低农民、商业货运公司以及其他依赖该燃料的数千家企业的成本。
柴油出口禁令将使油价降低多少？
高盛集团估计，在精炼商有足够存储空间容纳过剩柴油产量的情况下，柴油出口禁令可使油价每加仑降低约25美分。不过，这家投资银行表示，一旦柴油储存空间达到上限，禁令每延长一周，汽油价格就可能每加仑上涨30美分。
高盛集团分析师在报告中称：“柴油出口禁令持续的时间越长，其可能带来的破坏性就越大，因为柴油、汽油和喷气燃料大多是同步生产的。因此，柴油生产受到的下行压力可能会对汽油生产造成下行压力，也就是推高汽油价格。”
白宫未立即回应置评请求。
行业专家表示，即使出口禁令实施后柴油价格最初可能会下跌，美国能源企业也会随之削减炼油产量。汽油与柴油是同步精炼的，因此产量下降也会减少汽油供应，推高美国消费者的购买成本。
美国燃料与石化制造商协会——一个能源生产商行业组织——周五警告称，禁止精炼商出口过剩柴油供应将导致它们“全面削减包括汽油在内的燃料生产，推高油价，并增加美国对进口燃料的依赖”。
将成本负担转嫁至汽油
能源咨询公司伍德麦肯锡也预测，如果特朗普政府全面实施柴油出口禁令，美国消费者可能会面临油价大幅上涨的局面。
伍德麦肯锡分析师艾伦·格尔德在一份声明中称：“美国柴油出口禁令具有讽刺意味的是，这很可能会增加美国消费者的成本。为应对供过于求而削减原油加工量，会将成本负担从柴油转移到汽油上，这意味着一项旨在缓解柴油终端价格压力的政策，最终可能推高汽油终端价格。”
摩根大通分析师表示，如果出口禁令持续超过30天，柴油和汽油的炼油经济状况将出现裂痕。
摩根大通分析师在9月24日的报告中写道：“精炼商无法无限期地生产过剩供应。由于精炼厂不能仅仅停止生产柴油同时维持相同数量的汽油产量，原油加工量最终必须下降。届时，最初的部分价格缓解效果将开始逆转——这与政策制定者的初衷背道而驰。”
阿兰·谢特编辑
美联社对本文亦有贡献
Trump is eyeing an export ban on U.S. diesel. It could cause gas prices to soar, experts warn.
September 28, 2026 2:50 PM EDT / CBS News
By
A move by the U.S. to temporarily halt diesel exports amid record-high prices would initially lower costs, but a prolonged ban could drive up domestic gasoline prices, according to Goldman Sachs.
President Trump on Sunday told reporters his administration is “very seriously” considering a ban on diesel exports. Calls to restrict exports of U.S.-refined diesel have picked up in recent weeks, mostly from Republican lawmakers, as a lever they believe will help lower prices. Diesel hit a record $6.53 a gallon on Sept. 22, and has only eased slightly since then, slipping to $6.45 a gallon on Monday, according to AAA data.
Supporters of an export ban note that U.S. energy companies refine more diesel than Americans can consume, resulting in net exports of about 1.5 million barrels a day, according to S&P Global Energy. By halting those exports, the thinking goes, domestic diesel prices would drop due to a flood of fresh supply, lowering costs for farmers, commercial trucking companies and thousands of other businesses that rely on the fuel.
How much would a diesel export ban lower prices?
Goldman Sachs estimated that a diesel export ban could cut prices by about 25 cents a gallon while refiners have storage space for their excess diesel production. However, once diesel storage reached capacity, each additional week a ban was in place could cause gas prices to jump by 30 cents per gallon, according to the investment bank.
“The longer a diesel export ban lasts, the more disruptive it would likely be by putting upward pressure on gasoline prices because diesel, gasoline and jet fuel are largely produced together,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in the report. “Therefore, downward pressure on diesel production can mean downward pressure on gasoline production, i.e. upward price pressure on gasoline.”
The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Although diesel prices would likely initially drop if an export ban were to be introduced, U.S. energy companies would respond by cutting their refining output, according to industry experts. Gasoline is refined alongside diesel, so a drop in production would also reduce gas supplies, driving up prices for U.S. consumers.
American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a trade group for energy producers, warned Friday that blocking refiners from exporting excess diesel supplies would cause them “to cut fuel production overall, including gasoline, putting upward pressure on prices and increasing America’s reliance on imported fuel.”
Shifting the cost burden to gas
Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting company, also predicts that Americans could face sharply higher gas prices if the Trump administration implemented a full diesel export ban.
“The irony of a U.S. diesel export ban is that it would likely increase costs for American consumers,” Alan Gelder, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie, said in a statement. “Cutting crude runs to manage the oversupply would shift the cost burden from diesel to gasoline, meaning a policy designed to bring relief at the diesel pump could end up driving prices higher at the gasoline pump.”
If an export ban extended longer than 30 days, cracks would appear in the economics of refining diesel and gas, according to JPMorgan analysts.
“Refiners can’t indefinitely produce excess supply. And since a refinery can’t simply stop making diesel while continuing to produce the same amount of gasoline, crude runs eventually would have to fall,” JPMorgan analysts wrote in a Sept. 24 report. “At this point, some of the initial price relief would begin to reverse — the opposite of what policymakers want.”
Edited by Alain Sherter
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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