2026-09-25T17:49:44.883Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/25/politics/2026-midterm-election-trump
共和党在21世纪最糟糕的两次中期选举分别是2006年和2018年。前者中，不受欢迎的中东战争让乔治·W·布什付出了惨重代价。2018年，选民们对打破历史惯例、行事风格混乱的新任总统唐纳德·特朗普感到反感。
如今，多项指标显示，2026年的中期选举对共和党来说可能情况更糟。
不过其他指标尚未像外界预期那样全面倒向共和党。
我们来逐一拆解分析。
总统的支持率持续下滑，如今他在全国范围内的不受欢迎程度显然超过了2018年的特朗普和2006年的布什。
本周发布的最新CNN民调显示，特朗普在美国成年人中的支持率落后34个百分点，而CNN综合民调（整合其他民调机构数据）显示这一差距为29个百分点。
2018年同期，特朗普的支持率落后幅度大致在13至15个百分点之间。
而2006年时，布什的支持率还没跌到谷底。2006年9月下旬的CNN民调显示他落后15个百分点，同期盖洛普的数据则显示其落后幅度在7至22个百分点之间。
总体而言，特朗普的支持率落后幅度大约是这两次中期选举中共和党总统的两倍。
indeed，数据记者G·埃利奥特·莫里斯指出，特朗普似乎是现代史上中期选举前夕支持率最低的总统。
需要注意的是，这是全国民调数据：国会参众两院的权力平衡最终将由特定州和选区的投票决定，其中一些选区通过了不公正选区划分，得以免受全国整体趋势的影响。但既然特朗普明确告诉共和党选民，要把这次选举当作他本人在参选，那么可以合理预计，他的不受欢迎程度可能会在今年11月给共和党带来麻烦。
任何合格的竞选团队负责人都会告诉你，经济通常是选民最关心的问题。
2026年的情况无疑正是如此，而这对特朗普来说尤其不利。
最新CNN民调显示，特朗普的经济支持率仅为27%，高达73%的选民表示不认可。这一差距为负46个百分点。
2018年，他的经济支持率大致在50%左右，通常处于正向区间。
2006年，布什在经济议题上的表现并不理想，但他的净支持率在负18至负25个百分点之间，远好于如今特朗普负46个百分点的表现。
今年的经济议题重要性也显著提升。
根据CNN民调，2018年和2006年分别有绝大多数美国人认为经济“至少还算不错”，占比分别为69%和59%。但如今这一比例仅为28%。正如CNN的艾丽西亚·华莱士所报道的，其他经济指标也徘徊在历史低点附近。
对特朗普来说更糟糕的是，选民对经济议题的重视程度显著提高。2018年，44%的选民表示经济对他们的投票“极其重要”，2006年这一比例为32%，而如今这一数字已升至68%。
当然，经济并非共和党在2006年遭遇惨败的主要原因。那次惨败发生在伊拉克战争和几起高调的共和党丑闻之后。
如今，伊朗问题的不受欢迎程度甚至超过了当时的伊拉克战争。
最新CNN民调显示，美国人对特朗普处理伊朗问题的不支持率高出47个百分点，并有52%的人认为这场战争不值得发动。
2006年，布什的战争相关支持率和美国人对战争的支持率最糟糕时也仅落后30个百分点。
CNN的哈里·恩滕还发现，特朗普在外交事务上的净支持率为负42个百分点，是至少自罗纳德·里根以来所有总统中最差的。
一个现实问题是，伊朗问题是否像当时的伊拉克战争一样影响重大——毕竟与伊拉克不同，美国没有向伊朗派遣地面部队，也没有出现大规模美军阵亡情况。如今人们抱怨的主要问题是国内高昂的油价。
但2006年和今年分别有46%和48%的选民认为战争对他们的投票“极其重要”，两者比例相近。
CNN民调的另一项关键发现是，44%的登记选民表示，他们的投票是为了表达对特朗普的反对，而仅有19%的选民表示投票是为了表达支持。
这一数据比2006年和2018年都要糟糕。
2018年，38%的选民表达反对，25%的选民表达支持。
2006年的比例分别为36%和15%，差距为21个百分点，而如今的差距已达25个百分点。
考虑到特朗普及其顾问一直在强调可以动员共和党选民投票，这些数据可能会产生特别的影响。这或许是事实，但特朗普的存在也有可能激发反对者的投票热情。
尽管如此，有一个非常重要的衡量标准尚未像民主党希望的那样大幅倒向他们——至少目前还没有。
那就是通用国会选票民调。
这一被频繁引用的指标会询问受访者，他们会选择民主党候选人还是共和党候选人参选国会。
在最新的CNN民调中，民主党领先8个百分点。而2018年同期，这一领先幅度在9至12个百分点之间，2006年则在13至18个百分点之间。
那么，考虑到特朗普在民调中的诸多困境，为什么民主党没有取得更大的领先优势？
一个可能的原因是民主党自身的形象依然不佳。
7月的CNN民调显示，仅有30%的美国人对民主党持正面看法，这是至少自1994年以来中期选举前民主党支持率的最低水平。尽管特朗普问题缠身，但民主党30%的支持率仍不如共和党31%的支持率。
相比之下，2018年民主党形象略好于共和党（民主党支持率46%，共和党40%），2006年的差距则更大（民主党56%，共和党44%）。
有迹象表明，民主党在通用国会选票民调中的领先优势正在扩大，许多未表态的选民似乎很容易被争取过来。
就目前而言，其他所有主要民调指标对特朗普和共和党来说都非常不利。因此，值得关注这一指标是否也会出现同样的趋势。
https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/24/politics/video/enten-roundup-240926-ytc
Why the 2026 election could be the worst midterm for the GOP this century
2026-09-25T17:49:44.883Z / https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/25/politics/2026-midterm-election-trump
The Republican Party’s two worst midterm elections in the 21st Century were in 2006 and 2018. In the former, an unpopular Middle Eastern war cost George W. Bush dearly. In 2018, voters balked at the upending of historic norms and chaotic style of a new president named Donald Trump.
The 2026 midterm election is now looking like it could be even worse for the GOP – by several metrics.
But other indicators haven’t yet broken as overwhelmingly against Republicans.
Let’s break it down.
The president’s continued decline has now made him clearly a more unpopular president than he was in 2018 and Bush was in 2006 – at least on a national scale.
The new CNN poll this week showed Trump 34 points underwater among US adults, while the CNN Poll of Polls – aggregating other pollsters – shows him 29 points underwater.
Back in 2018 around this point, Trump was generally between 13 and 15 points underwater.
And back in 2006, the bottom hadn’t yet fallen out for Bush. He was 15 points underwater in a late September 2026 CNN poll, while Gallup data around that time showed him between 7 and 22 points underwater.
So all told, Trump is about twice as far underwater as the GOP president was in both of those midterms.
Indeed, data journalist G. Elliott Morris notes Trump appears to be the most unpopular president on the eve of a midterm in modern history.
Bear in mind this is national polling: the balance of power in the House and Senate will ultimately be decided by votes in particular states and districts, some of which have been gerrymandered such that they’re insulated from broad national trends. But with Trump telling GOP voters explicitly to act as if he is on the ballot, it’s fair to project that his unpopularity could spell trouble for his party this November.
Any campaign operative worth their salt will tell you the economy is often voters’ overriding concern.
That’s certainly the case in 2026, and it’s especially bad for Trump.
Trump’s economic approval rating in the new CNN poll was just 27%, with a whopping 73% disapproving. That’s minus-46.
Back in 2018, his economic approval rating was generally around 50% – and was usually in positive territory.
In 2006, Bush wasn’t in good shape on the economy. But his net approval was between minus-18 and minus-25 – significantly better than Trump’s minus-46 is today.
The economy is also just a significantly larger issue this year.
Large majorities of Americans viewed the economy as at least “somewhat good” in 2018 (69%) and 2006 (59%), according to CNN polling. But that number today is just 28%. Other economic indicators are hovering around all-time lows, as CNN’s Alicia Wallace reports.
And even worse for Trump, voters are emphasizing the issue significantly more. While 44% said the economy was “extremely important” to their vote in 2018 and 32% said the same in 2006, today it’s up to 68%.
Of course, the economy wasn’t the main reason the GOP lost big in 2006. That drubbing came after the Iraq war and some high-profile GOP scandals.
Well, today the Iran war is more unpopular than Iraq was back then.
The new CNN poll shows Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war by 47 points and say the war wasn’t worth it by 52 points.
Back in 2006, both Bush’s approval on the war and Americans support for the war were about 30 points underwater at their worst.
CNN’s Harry Enten also found that Trump’s net approval rating on foreign affairs (minus-42) is worse than any president since at least Ronald Reagan.
There is a real question whether Iran is as big an issue as Iraq was, given that unlike in Iraq, there aren’t boots on the ground, and we haven’t seen large numbers of US troops deaths. The main issue people complain about today is high domestic gas prices.
But similar numbers called the wars “extremely important” to their vote in 2006 (46%) and today (48%).
Another key finding in the CNN poll is that 44% of registered voters say their vote is meant to send a message of opposition to Trump, compared to 19% who said it would send a message of support.
That’s worse than in both 2006 and 2018.
In 2018, it was 38% sending a message of opposition, to 25% sending a message of support.
And in 2006, the numbers were 36% and 15% – a 21-point split, compared to a 25-point split today.
These numbers could matter especially as Trump and his advisers lean into the idea that they can turn out GOP voters. That might be true, but his presence also risks turning out the motivated opposition.
With all of that said, there is one very important measurement that hasn’t tipped towards Democrats as much as they’d like – at least not yet.
And that’s the generic ballot.
This is the oft-cited measure that asks poll respondents whether they’d pick a generic Democrat or a generic Republican for Congress.
Democrats lead on this by eight points in the most recent CNN poll. That’s compared to between 9 and 12 points around this juncture in 2018 and between 13 and 18 points in 2006.
So given all of Trump’s polling woes, why haven’t Democrats taken a bigger lead?
One possible reason is their brand is still poor.
The July CNN poll showed just 30% of Americans had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party. That is it’s worst number ahead of a midterm since at least 1994, and despite Trump’s problems, it’s no better than the GOP’s 31% favorable rating.
By contrast, Democrats had a slightly better image than Republicans did in 2018 (46% favorable for Democrats to 40% favorable for Republicans), and the gap was significantly larger in 2006 (56% to 44%).
There are some signs that Democrats are expanding their generic ballot lead right now, and many of the undecided voters appear to be quite gettable for them.
For now, every other major measure appears to be very bad for Trump and the GOP. So it’s worth watching to see whether this one follows suit.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/24/politics/video/enten-roundup-240926-ytc
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