2026-09-09T16:00:29.391Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
据SSRS所做的最新CNN民调显示，缅因州和密歇根州这两场关键的参议院竞选均呈现胶着态势，暂无明确领先者。但两州选民看待候选人选择的视角却截然不同。
在缅因州，这场竞选的核心更多在于潜在选民对现任参议员苏珊·柯林斯以及总统唐纳德·特朗普的普遍负面看法，而非他们对新晋民主党候选人特洛伊·杰克逊的印象。在格雷厄姆·普特纳因被指控性侵（普特纳本人否认指控）退选后，杰克逊接替其参选，许多选民目前仍在了解他。
密歇根州选民则更关注候选人的政策立场，此次为开放式席位竞选，民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·赛义德是本届选举中最具进步性的候选人之一，他的对手是前共和党国会议员迈克·罗杰斯。
50%的选民认为赛义德的政策过于自由化，而认为罗杰斯过于保守的选民占比为42%。约三分之二的受访者——包括两位候选人的绝大多数支持者——都认为赛义德会在华盛顿大力推动变革，而仅有20%的人持相同看法，认为罗杰斯会这么做。
不过，柯林斯和罗杰斯都面临着由经济担忧以及对特朗普的负面情绪所带来的政治逆风。两州的潜在选民均表示，他们更希望在今年秋季的中期选举后，由民主党掌控参议院。
特朗普在缅因州和密歇根州都极不受欢迎，两州约三分之二的选民不认可他的总统任期表现。表示对国家现状感到不满或愤怒的选民比例，远远高于表示满意或热情的选民比例。
经济与生活成本无疑是两州的首要议题，潜在选民以远超二比一的比例表示，与两年前相比，他们的经济状况更糟了。大多数选民还对加拿大商品加征关税的政策持怀疑态度：不到15%的人认为加征关税是件好事，两州——均与加拿大接壤——约三分之二的选民对关税持负面看法。
即便在潜在选民中，两州的民主党选民的投票积极性也远高于共和党选民，这与今年中期选举民调中全国范围内呈现的趋势一致。在积极性最高的选民中，民主党在两州均遥遥领先。
在密歇根州，潜在选民的支持率大致相当：赛义德获得47%的支持，罗杰斯为44%，这一差距落在了民调的抽样误差范围内。罗杰斯基本团结了该州的共和党潜在选民：97%的人支持他。在民主党选民中，90%支持赛义德，仅有3%的人支持罗杰斯。无党派选民倾向于赛义德，支持率为48%比32%，约五分之一的人不支持任何一位候选人。
总体而言，约四分之一的密歇根州潜在选民尚未明确决定支持哪位参议院候选人。这一比例在黑人选民和35岁以下选民中达到40%，在可能投票的无党派选民中为36%。
大多数已经做出选择的选民表示，他们的投票更多是支持自己心仪的候选人，而非反对对手，但罗杰斯的支持者中存在更多的负面情绪。约40%支持罗杰斯的选民表示，他们的投票是为了反对赛义德，而支持赛义德的选民中，仅有31%表示他们的投票是为了反对罗杰斯。
近一半的密歇根州潜在选民表示，候选人的政策立场是他们决定投票给谁的首要因素，另有31%的人认为参议院的党派控制权是首要考量，22%的人则将候选人的品格和经验作为首要依据。
尽管赛义德在以色列问题上的立场曾是民主党初选的争议点，但全州仅有3%的潜在选民表示，美国对以色列的政策是决定他们投票的首要议题。大多数选民（54%）认为美国在帮助以色列方面做得太多。
赛义德的支持群体以年轻选民为主。他获得了45岁以下潜在选民的多数支持，但在45岁及以上选民中落后。他在女性选民中领先9个百分点，而男性选民的支持率则更为平均：罗杰斯获得48%，赛义德为44%。该州的白人选民以微弱优势支持罗杰斯，而黑人选民则广泛支持赛义德，支持率为77%比10%，约14%的人不支持任何一位候选人。
赛义德在初选时的对手、众议员黑利·史蒂文斯在8月的初选中，在黑人人口较多的县表现最佳。新民调显示，许多黑人选民尚未对赛义德形成看法：66%的人对他持正面看法，2%持负面看法，32%的人尚未确定。
约五分之一的受访者表示对两位候选人都没有看法。赛义德的支持率与反对率持平，均为40%。对罗杰斯的看法则偏向负面：42%的人持不认可态度，35%的人持认可态度。
在接替民主党州长格蕾琴·惠特默的竞选中，现任州务卿乔斯林·本森以50%比41%领先共和党众议员约翰·詹姆斯。
全国政治塑造缅因州参议院竞选
在缅因州，目前有48%的潜在选民支持杰克逊，45%支持柯林斯。这一差距处于民调的抽样误差范围内，且该州的州长竞选竞争更为激烈：民主党候选人汉娜·平格里以52%比39%领先共和党候选人鲍比·查尔斯。
约18%的潜在选民表示，他们可能会改变对参议院选举支持对象的想法，或者尚未选定候选人。
杰克逊的支持者与两州其他受访选民的不同之处在于，他们更关注这场竞选对全国的影响。53%的多数人认为，参议院的党派控制权是他们投票的首要考量因素，近一半的人将美国民主的现状列为首要议题。
约七成杰克逊的支持者表示，他们投票更多是出于反对柯林斯，而非支持杰克逊本人，而仅有四分之一的柯林斯支持者表示，他们的投票动机是反对杰克逊。
这在一定程度上可能反映出柯林斯的知名度更高。尽管总体而言，潜在选民对两位候选人的印象都偏向负面，但近四分之一的人尚未对杰克逊形成看法，而仅有8%的人未对柯林斯形成意见。
尽管两党的缅因州选民大多表示对此次竞选的候选人选择感到满意，但近四成的民主党倾向选民表示不满，而共和党倾向选民中这一比例约为四分之一。
缅因州选民认为杰克逊过于自由化和认为柯林斯过于保守的比例大致相当，且大多数人都不认可这两种定性。但杰克逊被视为更有可能在华盛顿推动变革，42%的人表示，如果当选，他会大力推动变革，而仅有14%的人认为柯林斯若获得连任也会这么做。
这是柯林斯自最高法院推翻罗伊诉韦德案以来首次寻求连任，而该裁决的通过部分得益于她对布雷特·卡瓦诺大法官提名的支持。四年后的今天，近三分之二的缅因州选民表示对2022年的多布斯裁决持负面看法，其中约一半的人表示这让他们感到愤怒。那些仍然感到愤怒的选民大多支持杰克逊，而情绪没那么强烈的选民则大多支持柯林斯。
CNN对缅因州和密歇根州潜在选民的民调于2026年8月31日至9月6日通过线上和电话方式开展。受访者从注册选民名单和基于概率的调研面板中随机抽取。潜在选民的结果基于所有受访注册选民，根据他们在今年选举中的预期投票可能性进行加权。缅因州的880名潜在选民的抽样误差幅度为正负3.7个百分点；密歇根州的843名潜在选民的抽样误差幅度为4.1个百分点。
Maine and Michigan Senate races are neck and neck, CNN polls find
2026-09-09T16:00:29.391Z / CNN
The critical Senate contests in both Maine and Michigan feature tight races with no clear leader, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS. But voters in the two states see their choices through two very different lenses.
In Maine, the race centers more on likely voters’ broadly negative views of incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and President Donald Trump than on their impressions of the late-breaking Democratic nominee, Troy Jackson. Many voters are still getting to know Jackson after he replaced Graham Platner following allegations of sexual assault that Platner has denied.
Michigan voters are more focused on the candidates’ issue positions amid an open-seat campaign featuring one of the most progressive Democratic candidates of this cycle in Abdul El-Sayed against former GOP congressman Mike Rogers.
Fifty percent of voters say El-Sayed’s positions are too liberal, compared with 42% who say that Rogers is too conservative. Roughly two-thirds – including broad majorities of both candidates’ supporters – think El-Sayed would try to change things a lot in Washington, while just 20% say the same of Rogers.
But both Collins and Rogers face political headwinds driven by economic concerns and negativity toward Trump. The people most likely to vote in each state say that they would prefer to see Democrats win control of the Senate after this fall’s midterm elections.
Trump is deeply unpopular in both Maine and Michigan, with about two-thirds of voters in each state disapproving of his performance as president. The share of voters who say they are dissatisfied or angry with the way things are going in the country far outpaces the share who are satisfied or enthusiastic.
The economy and cost of living is far and away the top issue in each state, and by a better than two-to-one margin, likely voters say they are worse off rather than better off compared with two years ago. Most also view the increased tariffs on Canadian goods with skepticism: less than 15% think the tariffs are a good thing and about two-thirds in each state – both of which border Canada – view the tariffs negatively.
Even among likely voters, Democrats in both states are far more motivated to vote than their Republican counterparts, mirroring a trend seen nationwide in this year’s midterm polling. Among the most motivated voters, Democrats lead handily in both states.
In Michigan, likely voters split about evenly between El-Sayed at 47% and Rogers at 44%, a margin that lands within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Rogers has broadly unified Republican likely voters in the state: 97% back him. Among Democrats, 90% support El-Sayed, while just 3% say they back Rogers. Independents break toward El-Sayed, 48% to 32%, with about one in five not supporting either candidate.
About a quarter of Michigan likely voters overall haven’t yet firmly decided who they will support in the race for Senate. That number hits 40% among Black voters and voters younger than 35, and it stands at 36% among independents who are likely to vote.
Most voters who have picked a side say their vote is more in favor of their chosen candidate than against his opponent, but there is more negative sentiment among Rogers’ backers. About 4 in 10 who support Rogers say their vote is against El-Sayed while 31% backing El-Sayed say their vote is an anti-Rogers one.
Nearly half of Michigan likely voters say that the candidate’s positions on the issues are their top factor in deciding whom to support, while fewer, 31%, say that partisan control of the Senate is their top consideration and 22% cite the candidates’ character and experience.
Although El-Sayed’s positions on Israel were a point of contention in the Democratic primary, a scant 3% of likely voters statewide say US policy toward Israel is the top issue in deciding their vote. Most, 54%, say the US is doing too much to help Israel.
El-Sayed’s backing is strongest among younger voters. He carries a majority of likely voters younger than 45 while trailing among those 45 and older. He holds a 9-point lead among women while men split more evenly, 48% for Rogers to 44% for El-Sayed. White voters in the state break narrowly in Rogers’ favor, while Black voters broadly back El-Sayed, 77% to 10%, with about 14% opting for neither.
El-Sayed’s primary opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens, performed strongest in the August primary in counties with significant Black populations. The new poll suggests many Black voters haven’t yet formed opinions on El-Sayed: 66% say they have a favorable view, 2% an unfavorable one, and 32% aren’t sure yet.
Roughly one in five say they don’t have an opinion of each candidate. El-Sayed’s favorability is an even split, 40% on each side. Views of Rogers break negative, 42% unfavorable to 35% favorable.
In the race to replace Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, current Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads the Republican Rep. John James 50% to 41%.
National politics shape the Maine Senate race
In Maine, 48% of likely voters are currently backing Jackson with 45% supporting Collins. That’s inside the survey’s margin of sampling error and a considerably tighter race than the state’s gubernatorial contest, where Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles, 52% to 39%.
Roughly 18% of likely voters say they could change their mind about whom they support for Senate, or that they haven’t yet picked a candidate.
Jackson’s supporters stand out from other voters in either state polled for their close focus on the national implications of the race. A 53% majority say that party control of the Senate is the top consideration in their vote, and nearly half cite the state of US democracy as their top issue.
Roughly 7 in 10 of Jackson’s backers say they’d be casting their ballot more out of opposition to Collins than support for him, while only a quarter of Collins backers are motivated by their opposition to Jackson.
That may in part reflect Collins’ status as a better-known quantity. While likely voters’ impressions of both candidates are negative on balance, nearly a quarter don’t yet have an opinion of Jackson, while just 8% haven’t formed an opinion on Collins.
And while Maine voters in both parties largely say they’re satisfied with their choice of candidates in the race, nearly 4 in 10 Democratic-aligned voters, compared with about a quarter of those who side with the GOP, say they’re unhappy.
Maine voters are about equally likely to call Jackson too liberal and Collins too conservative – and most reject both characterizations. But Jackson is seen as relatively likely to shake things up in Washington, with 42% saying he’d try to change things a lot if elected, compared with just 14% who think Collins would do so if given another term.
This is the first time Collins has stood for reelection since the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade, an outcome owing in part to her support for the confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Four years later, almost two-thirds of Maine voters say they feel negatively about the 2022 Dobbs ruling, including about half saying it makes them feel angry. Those who remain angry are largely backing Jackson, while those who feel less strongly are largely behind Collins.
The CNN polls of Maine and Michigan likely voters were conducted online and by phone August 31-September 6, 2026. Registered voters were randomly sampled from both registered voter lists and a probability-based panel. Results among likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results among 880 likely voters in Maine have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points; it is 4.1 points among the 843 likely voters in Michigan.
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