2026-09-08T09:00:07-04:00 / 福克斯新闻
选民不认可特朗普在生活成本和通胀问题上的表现，但民调显示他们对民主党替代方案也并不满意
作者：雷米·努马 福克斯新闻
发布于 2026年9月8日 美国东部时间上午9:00
《美国新闻室》联合主播比尔·赫默在中期选举前拆解最新一期福克斯新闻实力排名，前白宫副幕僚长卡尔·罗夫将加入节目分析关键众议院和参议院摇摆选区的政党策略。
新增功能：您现在可以收听福克斯新闻的文章了！
blob:https://www.foxnews.com/5cdfc014-af8e-4f66-8584-196c1d7445d9
收听本文
8分钟
距离今天还有八周，数百万美国人将选出他们的下一任国会议员。一项又一项民调表明，经济状况将决定他们的选择：经济是选民最关注的议题，遥遥领先于其他问题，而大多数美国人对此感到不满。
但故事还不止于此。
我们从以往选举中了解到，选民在投票时会考虑一系列广泛的议题。“经济”对不同选民有着不同的含义。仅凭经济乐观主义无法赢得选民对民生问题的支持。而今年，尽管选民对唐纳德·特朗普总统任内的经济状况不满，但这并未让他们对民主党提出的替代方案产生热情。
以下是我们在距离中期选举越来越近之际需要牢记的四条规则。
与此同时，随着实力排名重新审视密苏里州和俄亥俄州的国会选区竞争，民主党离胜利又近了一步。
1. 经济是选举的核心议题，但需关注相关衍生问题
经济对选举的重要性自20世纪90年代初以来就已是一条黄金法则，当时民主党战略家詹姆斯·卡维尔那句著名的“经济，笨蛋”将其定为竞选活动的最核心关注点。
你知道吗？那只是他在那个选举周期给候选人提出的三条指令之一而已！
在特朗普执政时期，经济始终是前三重要的议题，包括过去两次中期选举：2022年有47%的选民将经济视为最重要的议题，2018年这一比例为18%。
如果觉得2018年的比例偏低，那是因为当年医疗保健（26%）和移民（23%）的占比更高。那一年，共和党失去了42个席位。
难怪卡维尔给候选人提出的另外两条规则是“别忘了医疗保健”（第三条是“变革 vs 换汤不换药”）。
哈基姆·杰弗里斯拒绝全民医保和民主社会主义者议程，罗·卡纳称医疗计划为“首要 priorities”
注：原文此处为英文标题，译文保留核心含义，标准译法应为“哈基姆·杰弗里斯拒绝全民医保与民主党社会主义议程，罗·卡纳呼吁将医疗计划列为‘最优先事项’”
（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
经济状况会延伸到其他重大关切领域，包括医疗保健。但即便经济表现强劲，也未能让共和党在那次选举中全身而退。而医疗保健今年仍是另一重要议题：在今年多数民调中，其排名紧随经济之后。
2. 经济对不同选民有着不同的含义
当民调机构询问选民对经济的看法时，他们通常会询问“经济”或“经济状况”有多重要，或者他们是否满意特朗普在该议题上的表现。
在某些重要方面，特朗普有着出色的经济政绩。就在上周，美国新增16.2万个就业岗位，约为经济学家预期的三倍。失业率稳定在4.1%。尽管伊朗问题和关税引发市场波动，股市仍持续上涨。
这些因素帮助特朗普在今年夏季的多项民调中，整体经济支持率维持在30%至35%的低位区间。
但当民调仅询问美国人的个人经济状况时，情况就没那么乐观了。
特朗普的支持率在关键中期选举前再创新低：“还有很多工作要做”
（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
在路透社/益普索上周发布的一项民调中，32%的选民认可特朗普在经济问题上的表现。但仅有四分之一的选民认可他在生活成本方面的表现，24%的选民认可他在通胀和物价问题上的表现。
汽油、食品和其他基本商品的价格是造成这一差距的主要因素。如果民主党能在11月取得佳绩，关键将在于选民对其在这些议题上的支持率能否达到25%左右。
3. 选民不会被经济乐观说辞蒙蔽
2022年，乔·拜登总统面临过类似的困境：经济正在复苏，尤其是从失业率来看，但通胀全年维持在8%左右。汽油价格约为每加仑3.75美元。
拜登政府一直在宣扬经济的积极面。先是称通胀是“暂时的”，随后总统辩称，尽管年化通胀率居高不下，但月度通胀率为“零”就是胜利。高级官员还为失业率数据沾沾自喜。
（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
选民在投票箱前否决了这套说辞，民主党净损失9个席位，将众议院拱手让给共和党，拜登在经济议题上的净支持率为-23个百分点。
如今，整体通胀率已不到当时的一半，为3.4%，而汽油价格略高，达到每加仑4.15美元。特朗普在经济议题上的净支持率目前为-33个百分点。
特朗普政府正在沿用一套熟悉的策略。副总统JD·万斯上周表示，如果不是特朗普政府的政策，汽油价格可能会更高。正如福克斯新闻的吉利安·特纳在《特别报道》中指出的那样，这番言论与四年前拜登政府官员的表态如出一辙。
这些乐观愿景恐怕很难打动选民。
4. 对经济的不满并不会让选民对替代方案更满意
人们很容易据此认为民主党将在11月迎来大捷。这当然是一种可能性。
但民调不断显示，选民对左翼的经济信息同样感到沮丧。
福克斯新闻民调：多数人对经济评价负面，包括一半共和党人
（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
目前，民主党向选民提出了相互竞争的经济愿景。一些人，如阿卜杜勒·埃尔赛义德和特洛伊·杰克逊，主张以“全民医保”和对富人加税开启变革。另一些人则表示，他们会推翻特朗普的议程，但保留美国经济体系的核心内容。
目前尚不清楚这些愿景是否不受选民欢迎，还是二者之间的对比本身就是问题所在。
无论如何，在路透社/益普索的调查中，36%的选民认为共和党是处理经济问题的更佳政党，而37%的选民更倾向于民主党。该民调的误差幅度为±3.3个百分点。
这对民主党团队来说并不鼓舞人心。
如果共和党在11月能保持相对稳定——这也是本次预测中的一种可能性——那么上述民调结果就能解释其中缘由。
众议院：民主党仍保持领先，共和党丧失两个席位
（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
民主党仍是今年11月掌控众议院的热门候选人，目前拿下212个席位，共和党为206个。另有17个席位势均力敌，双方都有可能拿下。
（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
这些席位通常会在计票时倾向某一方。如果民主党表现出色，他们将拿下229个席位；而如果共和党表现出色，他们仍能保住目前的众议院多数席位。
（两党任何一方取得“大胜”，都意味着能拿下本次预测中倾向对手的席位。实力排名将“倾向”类席位定义为竞争激烈，但某一方仍有优势的席位。）
本次预测的变化是共和党丧失了两个席位，全部来自密苏里州和俄亥俄州。
密苏里州：重新区划裁决将一个席位重新划归民主党，另一个席位仍具竞争性
今年美国最高法院缩小了《选举权法案》的适用范围后，共和党在东南部各州通过重新区划获得了优势。
这包括密苏里州，共和党议员重新划分了以堪萨斯城为中心的第五选区，该选区目前由民主党议员伊曼纽尔·克利弗占据，他曾以24个百分点的优势连任。重新划区后，该选区将纳入更多白人农村地区。
这使得该选区在今年最初的实力排名中被归入“稳固共和党”类别。
上周四，密苏里州最高法院一致否决了新的区划方案，除非选民通过公投批准，否则不得使用。该命令恢复了该州现有的选区地图，将克利弗的第五选区重新划归“稳固民主党”。
密苏里州总检察长提起请愿，要求最高法院恢复特朗普支持的重新区划地图
（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
（这也使得密苏里州第二选区的竞争更趋激烈。该选区此前已被列为“可能共和党”；我们暂时维持这一分类不变。）
密苏里州已就该裁决向美国最高法院提起上诉，最高法院可能会迅速对该州裁决作出裁定。目前，克利弗仍保有第五选区席位。
俄亥俄州：谢罗德·布朗与丑闻让该州竞争更激烈
俄亥俄州有三个选区的竞争态势正向民主党倾斜。
首先是共和党议员马克斯·米勒占据的第七选区。该议员的前妻艾米丽·莫雷诺指控米勒对她和他们年幼的女儿实施身体虐待。米勒否认了这些指控，并暗示莫雷诺存在精神健康问题。
莫雷诺是俄亥俄州参议员伯尼·莫雷诺的女儿，米勒称其试图毁掉自己的政治生涯。
第七选区此前已被列入“可能共和党”的竞争席位，而在这些丑闻曝光以及共和党内部敦促米勒退选后，该选区已变成胜负难料的摇摆席位。其评级从“可能共和党”下调至“摇摆席位”。
（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
与此同时，在该州西南部，需关注共和党议员迈克·特纳和迈克·凯里分别占据的第十和第十五选区。
在正常选举年，这些选区本不应出现在民主党竞选策略的考虑范围内：它们以白人和中产阶级为主。
特纳的第十选区包括代顿和部分郊区；凯里的第十五选区包括哥伦布周边的部分郊区和远郊地区，并延伸至南部农村地区。
（雷米·努马/福克斯新闻）
正如福克斯新闻民调两次显示的那样，民主党议员谢罗德·布朗在参议院竞选中表现强劲；5月和8月的民调中他领先8个百分点，支持率达53%。这样的表现可能会让共和党不愿看到的选情变得更加胶着。
点击此处下载福克斯新闻APP
这两位“迈克”仍拥有明显优势，但胜利并非板上钉钉。第十和第十五选区的评级从“稳固共和党”上调至“可能共和党”。
雷米·努马是福克斯新闻频道首席政治事务专家。你可以在推特上关注他：@remynuma。
Fox News Power Rankings: What’s in an economy?
2026-09-08T09:00:07-04:00 / Fox News
Voters disapprove of Trump on cost of living and inflation, but polls show they’re no happier with the Democratic alternative
By Rémy Numa Fox News
Published September 8, 2026 9:00am EDT
‘America’s Newsroom’ co-anchor Bill Hemmer breaks down the latest Fox News Power Rankings ahead of the midterms as former White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove joins to analyze party strategy in key House and Senate toss-up races.
NEW You can now listen to Fox News articles!
blob:https://www.foxnews.com/5cdfc014-af8e-4f66-8584-196c1d7445d9
Listen to this article
8 min
Eight weeks from today, millions of Americans will choose their next congressperson. Poll after poll tells us that the state of the economy will shape their choice: it’s the top issue for voters by a wide margin and most Americans are in a sour mood about it.
That’s not the end of the story.
We’ve learned from previous elections that voters consider a wide range of issues when they vote. The “economy” has different meanings to voters. Optimism doesn’t win over voters on pocketbook issues. And this year, while voters aren’t happy with President Donald Trump’s economy, that hasn’t yet made them enthusiastic about the Democratic alternative.
These are the four rules to think about as we inch closer to the midterms.
Meantime, Democrats inch closer to victory as the Power Rankings takes a fresh look at congressional races in Missouri and Ohio.
1. The economy is central to elections, but watch for related issues
The importance of the economy to elections has been a golden rule since the early ’90s, when Democratic strategist James Carville famously cited “the economy, stupid” as the most important focus for a campaign.
Did you know it was only one of three orders he gave to candidates that cycle?
The economy has been a top-three issue throughout the Trump era, including the last two midterm elections, where it was the most important issue for 47% of voters (2022) and 18% of voters (2018).
If that 2018 figure feels low, it’s because healthcare (26%) and immigration (23%) finished ahead. That year, Republicans lost 42 seats.
No wonder another of Carville’s three rules for candidates was “don’t forget health care.” (The third was “change vs more of the same.”)
HAKEEM JEFFRIES REJECTS MEDICARE FOR ALL, DSA AGENDA AS RO KHANNA CALLS HEALTH PLAN ‘MOST IMPORTANT PRIORITY’
Fox News Power Rankings on President Donald Trump’s economy.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
The state of the economy bleeds into other major concerns, including healthcare. But even a strong economy wasn’t enough to get the GOP out of that election unscathed. And healthcare looms as another important issue this year: it’s ranked close behind the economy in most surveys this year.
2. The economy means different things to voters
When pollsters ask about voters’ views on the economy, they usually ask how important “the economy” or “the state of the economy” is, or whether they’re satisfied with Trump’s performance on that issue.
In some important ways, Trump has a strong economic record. Just last week, the U.S. added 162,000 jobs, about triple what economists had expected. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.1%. The stock market also continues to grow, even as Iran and tariffs drive volatility.
These have helped keep Trump’s overall economic approval rating in the low-to-mid 30s in multiple polls this summer.
When pollsters ask only about Americans’ personal economic situation, things look tougher.
TRUMP’S APPROVAL RATING PLUMMETS TO NEW LOW AHEAD OF CRITICAL MIDTERMS: ‘MORE WORK TO DO’
Fox News Power Rankings on President Donald Trump’s handling of issues.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week, 32% of voters said they approved of Trump on the economy. But only a quarter approved of his performance on cost of living and 24% approved of him on inflation and prices.
The costs of gas, food and other basic goods are the major factors driving this discrepancy. If Democrats deliver a strong result in November, it will come down to a presidential approval rating in the mid-20s on these issues.
3. Voters see through economic optimism
In 2022, President Joe Biden faced similar headwinds: the economy was rebounding, especially if you looked at unemployment, but inflation hovered around the 8% mark all year. Gas prices came in around $3.75.
The Biden administration kept selling the positives. First, inflation was “transitory.” Then the president argued that “zero percent inflation” from one month to another was a win, despite the high annualized rate. Senior officials took victory laps on the unemployment rate.
Fox News Power Rankings on the economy in 2022 under former President Joe Biden.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Voters rejected this messaging at the ballot box, delivering the House to the GOP after a net loss of nine Democratic seats and handing Biden a net approval rating of -23 points on the economy.
Today, headline inflation is less than half that at 3.4%, while gas prices are a little higher at $4.15. Trump’s net approval on the economy currently sits at -33 points.
The Trump administration is running a familiar playbook. Vice President JD Vance said last week that gas prices could be worse if not for the Trump administration. As Fox’s Gillian Turner noted on “Special Report,” there are similarities between a comment like that and the statements Biden officials made four years earlier.
These optimistic visions are likely to remain a tough sell to voters.
4. Economic dissatisfaction doesn’t make voters any happier about the alternative
It’s easy to look at all this and think the Democrats are in for a big night in November. That’s certainly a possibility.
But polls keep showing that voters are just as discouraged by the left’s economic messaging.
FOX NEWS POLL: MOST RATE THE ECONOMY NEGATIVELY, INCLUDING HALF OF REPUBLICANS
Fox News Power Rankings on which party voters trust more to handle the economy.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Right now, Democrats are offering voters competing economic visions. Some, like Abdul El-Sayed and Troy Jackson, want a revolution that starts with “Medicare-for-all” and higher taxes on the wealthy. Others say they want to undo Trump’s agenda while keeping the core of America’s economic system in place.
It’s not yet clear whether these visions are unappealing to voters or whether the contrast between them is the problem.
Either way, in the Reuters/Ipsos survey, 36% of voters say Republicans are the better party to handle the economy, while 37% prefer the Democrats. The poll has a ±3.3pt margin of error.
That’s not encouraging for Team Blue.
If the Republicans hold relatively steady in November – also a possibility in this forecast – those results will explain why.
House: Democrats remain in the lead as two seats fall away from the GOP
Fox News Power Rankings forecast on the House of Representatives.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Democrats are still the favorites to take the House this November, with 212 seats in their columns to the GOP’s 206. There are 17 seats that are so close they could go either way.
Fox News Power Rankings forecast on the House of Representatives.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Those seats tend to swing in one direction as votes get counted. On a good night for Democrats, that means 229 seats, while a good night for the GOP would still see them hold onto their current House majority.
(A “great” night for either party would mean winning some of the seats that lean toward the opponent in this forecast. The Power Rankings puts seats in the “lean” category when they’re highly competitive, but one party has an edge.)
The changes in this forecast, which see two seats fall out of the GOP’s columns, all come from Missouri and Ohio.
Missouri: redistricting ruling flips one seat back to the Democrats and keeps another in contention
Republicans picked up redistricting wins across the southeast after the Supreme Court’s ruling narrowing the scope of the Voting Rights Act this year.
That includes Missouri, where Republican lawmakers redrew the Kansas City-based 5th District, currently held by Democrat Emanuel Cleaver, who won re-election there by 24 points, to include more White, rural areas.
That put the district into the Solid R column in the initial Power Rankings this year.
Last Thursday, the Missouri Supreme Court unanimously blocked the new districts from being used unless voters approve them in a referendum. The order restores the state’s existing map, flipping Cleaver’s district back to Solid D.
MISSOURI AG FILES PETITION ASKING SUPREME COURT TO REVIVE TRUMP-BACKED REDISTRICTING MAP
Fox News Power Rankings forecast on the House of Representatives.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
(It also makes Missouri’s 2nd District more competitive. The rankings already had that district at Likely R; we’re keeping it there for now.)
Missouri has appealed the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court, which could rule on the state ruling quickly. For now, Cleaver holds on to the 5th District.
Ohio: Sherrod and scandal make the state more competitive
Three races in Ohio are heading leftward.
First, Ohio’s 7th District, held by Republican Max Miller. The congressman’s ex-wife, Emily Moreno, has accused Miller of physically abusing both her and their young daughter. Miller denies the allegations and has suggested Moreno has mental health issues.
Moreno is the daughter of Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno, who Miller says is trying to take down his political career.
The 7th District was already close for the ‘likely’ column, and after these headlines and some prodding from Republicans to drop out, it’s become highly competitive. It moves from Likely R to Toss Up.
Fox News Power Rankings forecast on the House of Representatives.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
Meanwhile, in the southwest of the state, watch the 10th and 15th Districts, held by Republicans Mike Turner and Mike Carey, respectively.
These shouldn’t be part of the Democratic playbook in a regular election year: they’re predominantly White and middle-class.
Turner’s 10th District contains Dayton and some suburban areas; Carey’s 15th includes some suburban and exurban parts around Columbus and stretches to the rural south.
Fox News Power Rankings forecast on the House of Representatives.(Remy Numa/Fox News)
As the Fox News Poll has shown twice now, Democrat Sherrod Brown is running a strong race for Senate; up eight points at 53% in May and August. That kind of performance could create a closer race than Republicans would like.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP
The “Mikes” have the clear advantage, but victory isn’t a sure thing. The 10th and 15th Districts move from Solid R to Likely R.
Rémy Numa is the lead political affairs specialist for Fox News Channel. You can follow him on Twitter: @remynuma.
发表回复