最有可能通过邮寄方式投票的人群


2026-09-04T08:00:29.383Z / 美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)
作者:艾米·奥克鲁克、莱安妮·巴利特-伊马德加瓦
更新于17分钟前
更新时间:2026年9月4日美国东部时间上午7:42
发布时间:2026年9月4日美国东部时间上午4:00
节点运行失败

艾米·奥克鲁克 CNN供图

北卡罗来纳州2026年中期选举的邮寄投票将于周五正式启动,而与此同时,相关投票规则仍因一场 ongoing 的法律纠纷处于不确定状态。

一名联邦法官目前暂时叫停了美国邮政署执行由唐纳德·特朗普总统今年3月签署的一项全面行政令所衍生的新邮寄投票要求。这一暂停令出台于最高法院裁定特朗普政府可以开始实施该行政令的部分内容几天后。

除了法律层面的不确定性,美国邮政署内部也存在担忧。一份举报人报告指控,美国邮政署官员已就新的邮寄选票核验系统提出了严重的信息技术方面的担忧。

过去二十年来,邮寄投票规模大幅增长,已成为美国选举中一项受欢迎且成熟的投票方式。各州自行制定选民邮寄投票的规则,形成了一套政策组合拳,且在过去二十年里发生了显著变化。

选举创新与研究中心的数据显示,2000年时有21个州允许任何选民通过邮寄方式投票。如今,这一数字已增至37个州加上哥伦比亚特区,另有13个州实施带有一定限制条件的邮寄投票。

相关报道 6月2日,在加利福尼亚州工业市的洛杉矶县选票处理中心,一名选举工作人员正在整理邮寄选票以便计票。帕特里克·T·法伦/法新社/盖蒂图片社 选举官员表示无法遵守特朗普提出的邮寄选票规则 阅读时长8分钟

随着邮寄投票渠道的扩大,年度邮寄选票数量也随之增加。疫情期间的2020年大选,邮寄投票人数激增,数百万美国人在联邦选举中持续通过邮寄方式投票。

改变邮寄选票的处理方式可能对数千万选民以及负责组织选举的工作人员产生影响。

皮尤研究中心2024年的选举后调查显示,与全体选民相比,2024年表示曾使用邮寄选票的选民年龄普遍更大,且更有可能居住在城市或郊区。

在密西西比州等部分州,选民年满65岁及以上即可申请邮寄选票。

同一项皮尤调查表明,邮寄投票选民与现场投票选民的政治偏好存在差异。

2024年,61%的邮寄投票选民表示支持卡玛拉·哈里斯竞选总统,这一比例高于提前投票或选举日当天现场投票的选民。邮寄投票选民对哈里斯的支持率高于她在全民投票中的得票率。

特朗普今年3月出台旨在限制邮寄投票的行政令,此前他多年来一直毫无根据地声称邮寄投票存在非法投票行为。距离秋季选举已时日无多,法律诉讼可能会阻止特朗普意图推行的部分或全部改革在今年11月生效。

“这项行政令根本无法落实,”前司法部律师、现任非营利组织选举创新与研究中心负责人戴维·贝克尔告诉CNN,“无论在何种情况下,这都是对各州选举权力的全面攫取。即便提前两到四年筹备都难以完成,而如今只剩约70天时间,更是绝无可能。”

Here’s who is mostly likely to vote by mail

2026-09-04T08:00:29.383Z / CNN

By Amy O’Kruk, Rhyannon Bartlett-Imadegawa

Updated 17 min ago

Updated Sep 4, 2026, 7:42 AM ET

PUBLISHED Sep 4, 2026, 4:00 AM ET

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Amy O’Kruk, CNN

Mail-in voting in the 2026 midterm elections officially begins Friday in North Carolina, even as the rules governing those votes remain uncertain amid an ongoing legal fight.

A federal judge has, for now, temporarily blocked the US Postal Service from enforcing new mail-in voting requirements stemming from a sweeping executive order signed by President Donald Trump in March. The pause came days after the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration could begin implementing parts of the order.

Beyond the legal uncertainty, the effort is facing internal concerns at USPS. A whistleblower report alleges that USPS officials have flagged significant IT concerns about a new system for verifying mail ballots.

Voting by mail has grown significantly and has become a popular and well-established part of US elections over the past two decades. States set their own rules for who can vote by mail, creating a patchwork of policies that has shifted considerably over the past two decades.

In 2000, 21 states allowed any voter to cast a ballot by mail. Today, 37 states and the District of Columbia do, while another 13 states offer mail voting with some restrictions, according to the Center for Election Innovation & Research.

Related article An election worker moves mail-in ballots to be organized for tabulation at the Los Angeles County Ballot Processing Center in City of Industry, California, on June 2. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images Election officials say they can’t comply with Trump’s proposed mail ballot rules 8 min read

As access to mail voting has expanded, so has the annual number of ballots cast. Mail voting surged during the pandemic-era 2020 election, and millions of Americans have continued to cast their ballots by mail in federal elections.

Changing how mail ballots are handled could have implications for tens of millions of voters and for election officials preparing to administer voting.

Voters who said they used mail-in ballots in 2024 tended to be older and more likely to live in urban or suburban settings compared to the overall voting population, according to a 2024 post-election survey by Pew Research Center.

In some states like Mississippi, voters can qualify for a mail-in ballot based on being aged 65 or over.

Political preferences differ between people who vote by mail and people who vote in person, the same Pew survey suggests.

In 2024, 61% of voters who reported voting by mail-in ballot said they supported Kamala Harris for president, a higher share than those who voted in person, both early or on Election Day. The Harris support among mail-in voters was higher than her share of the popular vote.

Trump’s March order aiming to rein in mail-in voting follows years of him making unsubstantiated claims about illegal voting by mail. With such little time before the fall elections, the legal challenges could prevent some or all of Trump’s intended changes from taking effect this November.

“There’s no way to implement (the executive order),” David Becker, a former Justice Department lawyer who now leads the nonprofit Center for Election Innovation & Research, told CNN. “This would be a sweeping seizure of election power from the states under any circumstances. It would be hard to do this with two or four years of advance notice. It is impossible to do that with about 70 days.”

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