2026-11-12T18:14:32.483Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
民主党人斯科特·科洛姆在密西西比州参议院选举中的获胜，意味着2026年的参议院争夺战即将尘埃落定——与众议院选举的胜势类似，民主党似乎将迎来历史性的收官。
剩下的悬念仅存于阿拉斯加州，但民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉在该州的领先优势不断扩大，显然比现任共和党参议员丹·沙利文更具胜算。共和党参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯于周三承认了密西西比州的选举败局，该州是除阿拉斯加外唯一尚未出结果的选举，科洛姆将胜选。
那么，这次选举对民主党而言究竟有多成功？
若他们赢得阿拉斯加，民主党将净增9个席位，总计拿下56席，其中包括两名独立人士，他们将与民主党党团协同：来自佛蒙特州的伯尼·桑德斯和来自缅因州的安格斯·金。
这9个席位的增幅将追平1980年以来单届参议院选举的最大增幅。共和党在2014年中期选举中也净增了9个席位。
而56席的多数党席位，将是1994年以来两党中任何一方的第二多数席位。在过去30多年里，唯一更大的多数席位是2008年奥巴马“浪潮”胜选后，民主党一度达到的60席。
不过，2026年选举最引人注目的地方，或许是民主党成功翻转了多个特朗普赢下且差距达到两位数的州。
如果他们拿下阿拉斯加，就将翻转7个州——这些州都是2024年总统选举中唐纳德·特朗普以至少11个百分点优势获胜的州：阿拉斯加、爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、密西西比州、俄亥俄州、南卡罗来纳州和得克萨斯州。
这将是1986年以来翻转此类州数量最多的一次，当年民主党翻转了罗纳德·里根在1984年以两位数优势拿下的8个州。
但2026年的这一成就比40年前更令人印象深刻。原因在于：里根在1984年的总统选举中以压倒性优势获胜，意味着他以两位数优势赢下了大量州——实际上有42个州。
科洛姆拿下密西西比州也是两党在此期间翻转的第二难的州。
两年前，特朗普以23个百分点的优势赢得该州。唯一比这一差距更大的翻转案例是2010年的伊利诺伊州，当时共和党人马克·柯克赢得该州前两年，巴拉克·奥巴马曾以25个百分点的优势拿下该州。
多年来可竞争州数量不断减少，而民主党在此次选举中大幅扩大了可竞争州范围。
如果他们拿下阿拉斯加，那么民主党净增的9个席位中，有8个将来自此前没有民主党参议员的州。他们将在全国约三分之二的州拥有至少一名民主党参议员——50个州中有33个州。
正如内特·西尔弗所计算，拥有两名民主党参议员的州，其陆地面积将超过拥有两名共和党参议员的州。
（从技术层面看，这并不重要，毕竟土地不会投票。但选举地图往往呈现出强烈的“红色基调”，因为共和党赢下了大部分人口稀少的农村地区，而民主党选民更集中在较小的城市区域。）
这些胜选对未来的参议院争夺战也意义重大。
当然，拥有56票来通过立法，远比52票更容易。但这也能让民主党在未来选举不顺时，更稳固地保住多数党席位。他们拥有了更充足的缓冲空间。
这种缓冲空间在2028年将显得越来越重要。如果民主党在阿拉斯加获胜，共和党在2028年要夺回多数党，就必须打入民主党票仓州。他们在亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、内华达州、俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州拥有不错的夺席机会，但还需拿下新罕布什尔州，以及卡玛拉·哈里斯以两位数优势赢下的某个州，或者拿下新罕布什尔州并赢得总统选举（这样就能在参议院出现平局时拥有50票的决胜权）。
根据《经济学人》杂志政治数据记者欧文·温特的说法，这将是民主党自1996年以来最有利的参议院选举版图。（通常情况下，共和党只需在“红色州”获胜即可。）
但这并不意味着民主党将进入参议院控制的“黄金时代”。除非美国出现更持久的政治阵营重组，否则红色州总体数量仍多于蓝色州。而近年的情况表明，选民在两党之间频繁摇摆。
但此次选举对民主党而言显然极为成功。他们看起来几乎拿下了所有可争夺的席位，还在密西西比州和南卡罗来纳州等看似无望的州拿下了胜利，真正让这一年成为历史性的一年。
Here’s how big Democrats won in the Senate in 2026
2026-11-12T18:14:32.483Z / CNN
Democrat Scott Colom’s win in the Mississippi Senate race means the 2026 battle for the Senate is nearing a conclusion — and similarly to the House wins, it’s looking like a historic finish for Democrats.
All that’s left is Alaska, but Democrat Mary Peltola has been growing her lead there and is clearly favored over incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith conceded the Mississippi race, the only one besides Alaska that was still outstanding, to Colom on Wednesday.
So just how good an election has this been for Democrats?
Winning in Alaska would mean Democrats would have gained nine seats and will hold 56, including the independents who caucus with Democrats: Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine.
That nine-seat gain would be tied for the biggest haul of Senate seats in a single election since 1980. Republicans also gained nine seats in the 2014 midterms.
And a 56-seat majority would be the second-biggest majority for either party since the 1994 election. The only bigger one over the last three-plus decades was after the 2008 Obama wave, when Democrats for a time held as many as 60 seats.
Perhaps what stands out most about the 2026 election, though, has been all the double-digit Trump states that Democrats flipped.
If they win in Alaska, they’ll have flipped seven states that President Donald Trump carried by at least 11 points in 2024: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
That would be the most such states to flip since 1986, when Democrats flipped eight states that Ronald Reagan had carried by double-digits in 1984.
But the feat is more impressive in 2026 than it was 40 years ago. The reason: Reagan won the 1984 presidential election in a landslide, meaning there were a ton of states he had won by double-digits — 42 of them, in fact.
Colom’s flip of Mississippi is also the second-toughest state that either party has flipped over that span.
It went for Trump by 23 points two years ago. The only flip that had gone for the other party’s presidential nominee by more than that was Illinois in 2010. It had gone for Barack Obama by 25 points two years before Republican Mark Kirk won it.
Democrats also greatly expanded which states they can play in, after years of seeing that number dwindle.
If they win in Alaska, then 8 of the 9 seats they flipped will have come in states that previously didn’t have a Democratic senator. They would have at least one Democratic senator in about two-thirds of the country — 33 out of 50 states.
And as Nate Silver calculates, states with two Democratic senators will cover more landmass than the states with two Republican senators.
(This doesn’t technically matter, given land doesn’t vote. But election maps tend to be very red-tinged, because Republicans win vast rural areas with few residents, while Democrats’ voters are more concentrated in smaller, urban areas.)
The wins are also significant when it comes to future battles for the Senate.
It helps to have 56 votes to pass legislation rather than 52, sure. But it also insulates Democrats from losing their majority in future elections that don’t go their way. They have a bigger buffer.
And that buffer is looking more and more substantial for 2028. If Democrats do win in Alaska, Republicans in 2028 would need to go into blue territory in order to win the majority. They have good pickup opportunities in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but they’d also likely need to win either New Hampshire and a state that Kamala Harris carried by double-digits, or New Hampshire and the presidency (giving them 50 votes in the Senate tiebreaker).
According to political data journalist Owen Winter of the Economist, it would be Democrats’ most forgiving Senate map since 1996. (Usually, Republicans only have to win in red territory.)
None of it means Democrats are entering a new golden era of control in the Senate. Barring a more lasting political realignment in this country, there are still generally more red states than blue ones. And recent years have shown how frequently voters snap back and forth between the two parties.
But this has clearly been a very good election for Democrats. They appear to have just about run the table on all their winnable races — and then added a few seemingly unwinnable ones in states like Mississippi and South Carolina that really made this a historic year.
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