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文字实录:明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长兼首席执行官尼尔·卡什卡里做客《玛格丽特·布伦南直面国家》节目,2026年8月23日
2026-08-23T13:03:00-0400 / 哥伦比亚广播公司新闻

以下是明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长兼首席执行官尼尔·卡什卡里的采访实录,该采访于2026年8月23日在《玛格丽特·布伦南直面国家》节目中播出。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 想要了解美国经济的下一步走向,我们请到了明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长兼首席执行官尼尔·卡什卡里。欢迎再次来到《直面国家》。

尼尔·卡什卡里: 感谢邀请我,玛格丽特。很高兴能做客节目。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 我们五月份的对话中,我曾向你询问美国的债务规模问题。你当时表示,没有看到迫在眉睫的危机,但在某个时刻,债务问题会演变成麻烦。如今美国国债规模刚突破40万亿美元,我们是否已经到了债务成患的节点?

尼尔·卡什卡里: 玛格丽特,你看美国国债收益率,比如10年期美债收益率目前高达4.7%。这一水平相对于近期历史来说不算低,但放在更长的美国历史维度来看并不算高。2000年代初,10年期和30年期美债收益率就处于当前这类水平;上世纪90年代,美债收益率比现在还要高得多,而且目前没有迹象表明国债市场出现功能紊乱或金融市场崩溃。美债收益率受诸多因素影响:通胀以及通胀预期是其中之一,这也是美联储的职责所在,但还有其他诸多因素,比如人工智能投资、政府借贷、经济增长。所有这些因素共同作用,决定了长期美债收益率的水平。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 但我们确实目睹了此次债券抛售潮,还看到了财政部长斯科特·贝森特采取的非常规干预措施。他称此次市场波动是因为交易员掌握了错误信息。情况真的是这样吗?

尼尔·卡什卡里: 我还是交由财政部长来负责管理国债市场吧,这是财政部的职责。美联储的职责主要是管控通胀相关问题。我们都坚定致力于将通胀率拉回2%的目标,但从长期来看,决定美债收益率的是债务发行、投资、经济增长和生产率等基本面因素。从长期来看,这不仅适用于美国,全球各国的政府债券收益率都是由这些因素决定的。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 我理解,作为央行官员,你不想干预财政政策或市场日常波动,但目前市场上有一场辩论,讨论是否有更根本性的转变正在发生。投资者穆罕默德·埃尔-埃利安在《纽约时报》撰文称:“借贷成本出现了惊人的跃升。如果这种情况持续下去,可能标志着一场结构性经济转型的开始,其影响比以往大多数市场波动事件都更持久、更具全球影响力。” 这种说法是不是言过其实了?我们是否正处于一场巨大的转型之中?

尼尔·卡什卡里: 同时发生的影响因素有很多。你也知道,过去几年股市一直非常乐观,市场对人工智能及其有望带来的生产率增长充满期待。对这些市场波动有一种更乐观的解读:债券市场正在追赶股市,债券市场正预示着更高的增长轨迹。如果全球经济即将迎来更高的生产率增长和更快的经济增速,那么全球各地的收益率都会上升。我现在并非要支持这一观点,也不是说这就是正确的解读。不过,全球范围内债券收益率上升确实存在多种可能的解释。埃尔-埃利安说得没错,这些波动同时在全球各地发生。我认为,对于推动这一现象的原因,既有负面的解读,也有更乐观的看法。目前很难判断哪种因素占据主导地位。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 副总统J·D·万斯在一次电视采访中表示,贝森特部长有一个“非常审慎的计划”来缩减美国国债规模。贝森特部长明天本应召开新闻发布会,他表示将就财政整顿采取行动。普通民众应该关注哪些信号,才能说明美国如今正在切实处理债务问题,这不再是个麻烦?

尼尔·卡什卡里: 你可以参考国会预算办公室的预测,该机构会对未来数十年的美国债务和赤字进行预估。长期以来,多位美联储领导人都指出,美国的债务轨迹已处于不可持续的路径上。我认为,最终还是要靠我们的财政决策者——也就是财政部和行政部门与国会合作,制定财政政策方案,改变当前的债务轨迹,将其拉回可持续的道路。但显然,就像你刚才提到的,这并非美联储的职责。美联储的职责是,无论他们做出何种决定,都将其纳入我们的经济预测中,然后我们的工作就是据此将通胀率拉回2%的目标,完成国会赋予我们的双重使命。我和我的同事们都致力于实现这一目标。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 没错。我了解到,本周末你们将在杰克逊霍尔召开会议。我很好奇这些市场动态之间有什么关联,你认为市场当前的这种波动和担忧情绪,会让美联储在制定政策时面临更大挑战,或是会促使美联储进行干预吗?

尼尔·卡什卡里: 我不这么认为。正如我刚才提到的,种种迹象都表明美国国债市场运转正常——交易正常进行,市场流动性充足。这让我们能够专注于将联邦基金利率作为主要政策工具,以将通胀拉回目标水平。因此,我认为我们有自由采取必要行动,实现国会交给我们的目标。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 好的。在上一次美联储会议上,你对整体维持利率不变的决议投了反对票。你表示,美国已经经历了五年持续高通胀,在我看来,你的意思是“别再拖延了”,你当时提议应该开始考虑加息,你提到了25个基点的加息幅度。你仍然认为下个月有必要这样做吗?

尼尔·卡什卡里: 我需要更多数据——距离下一次联邦公开市场委员会会议还有一段时间,我不想提前预判会议结果。但目前中东局势、伊朗相关冲突,已经成为影响通胀的一大关键因素。如你所知,能源渗透到美国经济的各个领域,这场冲突持续的时间越长,动荡就越严重,对美国经济和通胀的影响也就越大。即便这是由地缘政治因素引发的,最终也会影响通胀,最终也会影响美联储的使命。冲突持续的时间越长,我就越没有信心通胀能够回归目标水平。五年来,我们一直在说通胀将在未来一两年内回归目标,但这个时间节点一再被推迟。最终我们可能不得不采取更多行动。我不确定我们现在是否已经到了需要加息的地步,我们需要更多的数据支撑。但我不想提前预判下一次会议的结果。不过目前我并不确信通胀会在短期内回归目标水平。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 我们应该补充说明一下,贝森特部长明天的新闻发布会上,预计会谈到转向金融战,或者说回归以往的策略,可能会升级对伊朗的金融战争。看起来美国打算采取这一步,而非军事冲突。这会不会对你的政策判断产生影响?

尼尔·卡什卡里: 现在——

玛格丽特·布伦南: 好的。

尼尔·卡什卡里: 下定论还为时过早。我不知道部长会宣布什么,也不知道这对能源价格和大宗商品价格会有什么影响。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 没错。我还想问问你最近几天我们了解到的美加贸易紧张局势。你所在的明尼苏达州是重要的边境州。加拿大总理卡尼表示,下周将对钢铁、乳制品、家电、农业设备、纸浆和纸张、电子产品实施新的报复性关税。明尼苏达州有着大量的跨境贸易,你有没有迹象表明这场关税争端的影响会有多严重?

尼尔·卡什卡里: 加拿大是美国重要的贸易伙伴。我们之前谈到,五年来居高不下的通胀在很大程度上由所谓的供给冲击推动,其中之一就是贸易和关税冲突。因此,只要我们能够达成新的常态,确定稳定的贸易关系,企业就能做出调整,通胀的影响也会逐渐消退。贸易战线的拉锯持续越久,就好比伊朗冲突持续越久,对通胀的影响就会越持久、越延迟,这也是我们需要密切关注的另一个因素。

玛格丽特·布伦南: 没错。我们会持续关注此事,也一如既往感谢你的真知灼见。尼尔·卡什卡里,感谢今天上午做客我们节目。《直面国家》节目稍后马上回来。

Transcript: Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed president and CEO, on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,” Aug. 23, 2026

2026-08-23T13:03:00-0400 / CBS News

The following is the transcript of an interview with Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis that aired on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” on Aug. 23, 2026.

MARGARET BRENNAN: For more on what’s next for the American economy, we’re joined by Neel Kashkari, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Welcome back to Face the Nation.

NEEL KASHKARI: Thanks for having me, Margaret. Great to be with you.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So when we spoke back in May, I asked you about the debt level America has. You said you didn’t see an immediate crisis brewing, but at some point, this is going to become a problem. We just hit $40 trillion. Are we at the point where this is a problem?

: Well, Margaret, if you look at the Treasury yields, yields are high, 4.7% for example, on the 10-year Treasury. They’re high relative to recent history. They’re not high relative to more longer American history. In the early 2000s, the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year Treasury were around these levels. In the 90s, they were meaningfully higher than they are now, and there’s no sign of Treasury market dysfunction or breaking down in financial markets. There are a lot of different factors that go into those Treasury yields. Inflation, and the outlook for inflation is one of those factors, that’s the Fed’s job. But there are many other factors, like, it’s the AI investment, government borrowing, economic growth. All of those end up going together to set these long-run Treasury yields.

MARGARET BRENNAN: But we saw this bond sell-off. We saw extraordinary action by the Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to intervene. He said what was happening was due to traders having bad information. Is that what’s happening?

: Well, I’m going to leave it to the Treasury Secretary to manage the Treasury debt market. That’s the job of the Treasury Department. The Fed’s job is really to take care of the inflation piece of it. We are all absolutely committed to getting inflation back down to 2%, but long run, it’s going to be fundamentals of debt issuance, of investment, of economic growth and productivity. Long run, that’s what sets the Treasury yields, and not just in the U.S. but government bond yields all around the world.

MARGARET BRENNAN: No, and I appreciate as a central banker, you don’t want to get involved in fiscal policy or what the markets are doing day to day, but there is this debate right now about whether something more fundamental is shifting. Investor Mohamed El-Erian wrote in the New York Times, “There’s a breathtaking leap in the cost of borrowing. If it persists, it could mark the beginning of a structural economic shift more enduring and more globally consequential than most previous episodes of market volatility.” Is that overstating things? Are we in the midst of a huge shift?

: Well, there are a lot of different factors going on at the same time. So, the stock market, as you know, has been really bullish for the last several years, really excited about AI and the prospects that that will lead to productivity growth. You know, a more optimistic take on these market moves is that the bond market is catching up to the stock market, and the bond market is seeing a higher growth trajectory. If the- if the global economy is in for higher productivity growth and higher growth, you would also expect to see higher yields all around the world. Now, I’m not endorsing that view. I’m not saying that’s right. But, there are many different ways that you could see bond yields go up globally. It is- Mr. El-Erian is right. These moves are happening all around the world at the same time. I think that there are negative views of what could be driving that. There are also more optimistic views. It’s hard to know right now which is the- the bigger driver.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, the vice president J.D. Vance, in a TV interview, said Secretary Bessent has a, quote, “very discreet plan to shrink the nation’s debt.” Mr. Bessent is holding a press conference tomorrow, or is supposed to, and- and he said he’s going to do things about fiscal consolidation. What are the things that people at home should be listening for that say America’s debt load is really being dealt with now, that this isn’t a problem?

: Well, I just think you can look to the Congressional Budget Office, which makes forecasts of debt, U.S. debt and deficits for decades out into the future, and many Fed leaders have said for a long time that the debt trajectory is on an unsustainable path. I think ultimately it’s up to our fiscal actors. That’s the Treasury and the executive branch working with Congress to design a fiscal package that can change that and put it on a sustainable path. But obviously, you know, you said it a moment ago. That’s not the Fed’s role. The Fed’s role is to take whatever they decide to do, put that into our forecast of the economy, and then our job is to take that and get inflation back down to our 2% target and achieve our dual mandate goals. And my colleagues and I are all committed to doing so.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Right. And you have a meeting at the end of this week, I understand, out in Jackson Hole. But, I’m- I’m wondering how all these dots connect because do you think that this kind of activity and level of concern in the markets is going to make your job harder when it comes to- to making some decisions or cause the Fed to intervene?

: I don’t think so, right. As I mentioned a few moments ago, there’s every indication that the U.S. Treasury market is functioning as it should–

MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay.

: –that trades are taking place. That there’s liquidity in the market, and so that enables us to focus on the federal funds rate as our primary policy tool to get inflation back down. And so I think we have the freedom to do what we need to do to achieve our goals that Congress has assigned us.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay. At that last Fed meeting that was held, you dissented from the broader decision to hold interest rates steady. You said there have now been five years of persistently high inflation, and, sort of like, let’s get on with it was my understanding. You were saying let’s start to possibly raise rates. You mentioned a quarter of a percentage point. Are you still thinking that that’s necessary next month?

: Well, I want to get- more data has yet to come between now and our next FOMC meeting, so I don’t want to prejudge things. But what’s happening in the Middle East, the conflict with Iran, is now a big driver of what’s happening on inflation because, as you know, energy goes into every facet of the U.S. economy, and the longer that conflict, the more turmoil there is. The longer it goes on, the bigger effect it ends up having on the U.S. economy and on inflation. And even if it’s driven by geopolitical factors like that, ultimately it does affect inflation. Ultimately, it does have a bearing on the Federal Reserve’s mandate and so the longer that goes on, the less confident I am that inflation is going to return to target. You know, for- for five years we’ve been saying inflation is going to return to target in the next year or two. It just keeps getting pushed out. Eventually, we’re going to have to do more. And I’m not sure if we’re there yet, we need to see more data. But I don’t want to prejudge the next meeting. But I’m not feeling confident right now that inflation is heading back down to target in a short period of time.

MARGARET BRENNAN: And- and we should say that at that press conference, Secretary Bessent is expected to have tomorrow, he’s supposed to talk about switching to financial warfare, or I guess returning to where we were and maybe ratcheting it up with financial warfare against Iran. It seems that that’s the foot forward rather than military conflict. Does that change anything for you?

: I- I- it’s too soon–

MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay.

: –to know. I don’t know what the secretary will announce, and I don’t know what the implication will be for–

MARGARET BRENNAN: Yeah.

: –energy prices and commodity prices.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Yeah. Let me ask you as well about what we heard in the last few days about the trade tension with Canada. You are in Minnesota, key border state there. Prime Minister Carney said there will be new retaliatory tariffs rolling out next week on steel, dairy appliances, ag equipment, pulp and paper, electronics. You’ve got a lot of cross-border trade here. Do you have any indication how significant the impact will be?

: Well, Canada is an important trading partner for America. You know, we talked about the five years of elevated inflation that has largely been driven by what we call supply shocks. One of those supply shocks is the trade and tariff conflicts. And so to the extent that we can get to a new- a new normal, a- a- a level of- whatever the trade dynamic is going to be, once we can get to that steady state, then businesses can adjust, and the inflationary impact can fade into the background. The longer there’s back and forth on the trade front, just like the longer there’s back and forth in the conflict of Iran, the imprint in inflation end up being extended and delayed, and so that’s another factor to pay close- close attention to.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Right. Well, we will follow that, and we appreciate your insight as always. Neel Kashkari, thanks for joining us this morning. Face Nation will be right back.

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