2026-08-21T19:31:51.318Z / 美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）
华盛顿——
一名公司高级官员告诉CNN，预测平台Polymarket已向美国司法部移交数十个存在潜在军方内幕交易迹象的账户，提请后者展开调查。
此次移交此前从未对外披露，涉及的账户是一个监督组织在周四发布的报告中标记出来的，但移交行动早于这份报告发布的时间。
这个无党派组织——反腐败数据集体（Anti-Corruption Data Collective）表示，其分析了Polymarket公开的海量数据后，发现有152个账户在战争相关市场获利约800万美元，其中包括与伊朗战争相关的交易，且这些账户存在多项内幕交易活动的典型特征。
美国司法部周五未回应CNN的置评请求。Polymarket本身并未被指控存在不当行为。
在预测平台上，交易员可以对体育、文化、选举、天气和战争等各类事件下注。（战争相关交易在美国法律中属于非法行为，但在Polymarket的离岸平台上，这类交易仍可进行且极为热门。
这是Polymarket平台上曝出的一系列潜在军方相关内幕交易事件中的最新一起。今年随着预测平台人气暴涨，周交易量达数十亿美元，此类事件也愈发频发。
今年4月，美国司法部指控一名特种部队士兵利用军事机密下注美军突袭抓捕委内瑞拉时任领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗的事件。（该士兵已提出无罪抗辩。）CNN此前也曾报道，有一名交易员通过数十笔针对美国和以色列对伊朗发动打击的可疑交易获利近100万美元。
Polymarket的主要竞争对手Kalshi平台也存在内幕交易担忧，但相关案件涉及的是选举、文化以及关于唐纳德·特朗普总统在演讲中会发表何种言论的“提及市场”交易。
CNN与Kalshi存在合作关系，并使用其数据报道重大事件。编辑人员被禁止使用预测平台。
这份监督报告指出，被标记的152个账户中，有许多都存在潜在内幕交易活动的迹象。例如，其中很多都是全新的钱包地址，下注时机精准得惊人，且均选择了极低赔率的选项。这些账户的胜率高达97%。（预测平台上的多数交易员都会亏损。）
这位因讨论敏感事宜而要求匿名的Polymarket高级官员承认，这些通常是内幕交易的线索，但他同时强调，仅凭这些模式并不能证明存在不当行为。他表示，公司的内部监控工具会监测约150种额外信号和交易模式，以排查内幕交易活动。
Polymarket创始人兼首席执行官谢恩·科普兰（Shayne Coplan）周四在负责监管预测市场的联邦机构——美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的公开会议上，谈到了公司打击内幕交易的举措。科普兰是CFTC咨询委员会成员。
他夸赞公司近期聘请了一名前联邦调查局官员，该官员为Polymarket平台开发了“定制的专有监控软件”。
“我们和合作伙伴——帕尔庭（Palantir）、链分析（Chainalysis）——交流时，他们都表示：‘哇，你们居然有这套内部系统！这力度不小啊！’”科普兰说道，“我们很庆幸拥有这套系统，并且会持续加大投入。”
他还表示，“马杜罗事件”和其他内幕交易案件“令人不安”，但“事件发生后，我们便与委员会和执法部门展开了合作”。
在监管审查愈发严格的背景下，Polymarket于今年3月宣布了针对其离岸和美国平台的“强化市场诚信规则”。该规则禁止基于内部消息进行交易，并规定“处于能够影响事件结果的权威职位”的人员，不得在相关市场进行交易。
这些举措并未阻止调查人员介入。一些议员仍在呼吁对这些平台加强监管。
《华尔街日报》报道称，CFTC正在调查Polymarket是否合法运营。美国众议院监督委员会也在审查预测平台的内幕交易问题，纽约市议会则正在调查这些公司的营销行为。
由两党44位州总检察长组成的联盟呼吁加强监管。国会中越来越多的民主党人和共和党人也持相同立场，他们表示，战争相关市场可能会助长军方腐败，并向美国敌对国家泄露信息，从而威胁国家安全。
“我们的国家安全基础设施旨在保障信息保密，”该监督组织的研究员米歇尔·肯德勒-克莱奇（Michelle Kendler-Kretsch）说道，“如果有人为了牟利而打破保密壁垒，将使我们整个国家安全架构陷入风险之中。”
Polymarket referred dozens of possible military insider trading cases to DOJ, source says
2026-08-21T19:31:51.318Z / CNN
Washington—
The prediction site Polymarket referred dozens of accounts that showed signs of potential military insider trading to the Justice Department for investigation, a senior company official told CNN.
The referrals, which have not been previously disclosed, pertained to accounts flagged by a watchdog group in a report published Thursday, but the referrals predated the report.
That nonpartisan organization, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, said it analyzed a massive trove of publicly available Polymarket data and found 152 accounts that profited about $8 million on war markets – including about the Iran war – and contained several hallmarks of insider activity.
The Justice Department did not respond to CNN’s request for comment Friday. Polymarket itself has not been accused of wrongdoing.
On prediction markets, traders can bet on everything from sports, to culture, elections, the weather and war. (War markets are illegal under US law. But they are still available, and highly popular, on Polymarket’s offshore site.
This is the latest in a series of revelations about potential military-related insider trading on Polymarket, which has climbed to new levels this year as prediction platforms have boomed in popularity, with billions of dollars in weekly trading volume.
In April, the Justice Department charged a Special Forces soldier with using military secrets to bet on the US raid that captured Venezuela’s then leader, Nicolás Maduro. (He pleaded not guilty.) CNN also reported that one trader won nearly $1 million from dozens of suspicious trades about US and Israeli strikes against Iran.
There have also been insider-trading concerns on Kalshi, Polymarket’s main rival, but those cases involved trades about elections, culture and “mention markets” about what President Donald Trump would say at his speeches.
CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. Editorial employees are prohibited from using prediction markets.
The watchdog report said many of the 152 accounts they flagged showed signs of potential insider activity. For instance, many were brand-new wallets that placed remarkably well-timed bets with longshot odds. They had a staggering 97% win rate. (Most traders on prediction sites lose money.)
The senior Polymarket official, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, agreed that these are often clues suggesting insider trading, but they stressed that those patterns alone don’t prove wrongdoing. They said the company’s internal surveillance tools monitor about 150 additional signals and trading patterns to hunt for insider activity.
Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan spoke about the company’s efforts to crack down on insider trading Thursday at a public meeting of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets. Coplan is a member of a CFTC advisory committee.
He touted the fact that the company recently hired a former FBI official who built “custom, proprietary surveillance software” for Polymarket’s platform.
“We talk with our partners – Palantir, Chainalysis – and they’re like, ‘damn, you guys have this in-house? This is serious!’” Coplan said. “We’re grateful to have that, and we continue to invest more in it.”
He also said “the Maduro thing” and other insider-trading cases were “problematic,” but “when that happened, we worked with the commission, we worked with law enforcement.”
Amid the mounting scrutiny, Polymarket announced in March what it called “enhanced market integrity rules” for its offshore and US platforms. It banned trades based on insider tips, and said people in “a position of authority” to affect the outcome of an event can’t trade on related markets.
These measures haven’t stopped investigators from getting involved. And some lawmakers continue to advocate for more regulation on these platforms.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the CFTC is investigating whether Polymarket is operating within the law. The House Oversight Committee is also scrutinizing prediction markets for insider trading, and the New York City Council is probing these companies over their marketing practices.
A bipartisan coalition of 44 state attorneys general is pushing for more regulation. So are an increasing number of Democrats and Republicans in Congress, who have said war markets could threaten national security by incentivizing corruption in the military and tipping off US adversaries.
“We have a national security infrastructure designed to keep things secret,” said Michelle Kendler-Kretsch, one of the watchdog group’s researchers. “Providing an opportunity for someone to break that seal of secrecy, just to make some money, puts our entire national security structure at risk.”
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